Hadaschik, Boris Alexander

Abstract Cancer outcomes vary widely between individual patients, each accumulating an irregular record of treatments, diagnoses, measurements, and complications. Current prognostic models reduce this complexity into a single snapshot, focus on narrow clinical settings, and rarely generalize across hospitals. Here we introduce Chronicle , an explainable transformer that learns from entire patient trajectories to predict diverse clinical outcomes throughout the disease course while capturing both short- and long-term temporal dependencies. Trained on 53.7 million longitudinal data points from 51,711 patients spanning 67 cancer types, Chronicle operates natively on irregular data without imputation and jointly predicts eight endpoints within a flexible framework adaptable to additional outcomes. Chronicle outperformed cross-sectional models for overall survival prediction (C-index 0.84 vs 0.76-0.79), stratified patients more accurately than established prognostic systems, including TNM stage, and predicted seven adverse event and transfusion endpoints (AUC 0.80-0.92). Applied without retraining to 69,341 patients in Germany, Switzerland, and the United States, Chronicle generalized across healthcare systems and improved further with local fine-tuning. Integrated explainability traced each risk update to patient-specific clinical factors, revealing distinct temporal persistence of prognostic information, with relevance half-lives ranging from weeks for therapies to nearly one year for baseline characteristics. These findings demonstrate that learning from hospital-wide patient trajectories enables interpretable and continuously updated predictions, providing a scalable framework to support individualized treatment decisions.

Importance Multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), with or without prostate biopsy, has become the standard of care for diagnosing clinically significant prostate cancer. Resource capacity limits widespread adoption. Biparametric MRI, which omits the gadolinium contrast sequence, is a shorter and cheaper alternative offering time-saving capacity gains for health systems globally. Objective To assess whether biparametric MRI is noninferior to multiparametric MRI for diagnosis of clinically significant prostate cancer. Design, Setting, and Participants A prospective, multicenter, within-patient, noninferiority trial of biopsy-naive men from 22 centers (12 countries) with clinical suspicion of prostate cancer (elevated prostate-specific antigen [PSA] level and/or abnormal digital rectal examination findings) from April 2022 to September 2023, with the last follow-up conducted on December 3, 2024. Interventions Participants underwent multiparametric MRI, comprising T2-weighted, diffusion-weighted, and dynamic contrast–enhanced (DCE) sequences. Radiologists reported abbreviated biparametric MRI first (T2-weighted and diffusion-weighted), blinded to the DCE sequence. After unblinding, radiologists reported the full multiparametric MRI. Patients underwent a targeted biopsy with or without systematic biopsy if either biparametric MRI or multiparametric MRI was suggestive of clinically significant prostate cancer. Main outcomes and measures The primary outcome was the proportion of men with clinically significant prostate cancer. Secondary outcomes included the proportion of men with clinically insignificant cancer. The noninferiority margin was 5%. Results Of 555 men recruited, 490 were included for primary outcome analysis. Median age was 65 (IQR, 59-70) years and median PSA level was 5.6 (IQR, 4.4-8.0) ng/mL. The proportion of patients with abnormal digital rectal examination findings was 12.7%. Biparametric MRI was noninferior to multiparametric MRI, detecting clinically significant prostate cancer in 143 of 490 men (29.2%), compared with 145 of 490 men (29.6%) (difference, −0.4 [95% CI, −1.2 to 0.4] percentage points; P = .50). Biparametric MRI detected clinically insignificant cancer in 45 of 490 men (9.2%), compared with 47 of 490 men (9.6%) with the use of multiparametric MRI (difference, −0.4 [95% CI, −1.2 to 0.4] percentage points). Central quality control demonstrated that 99% of scans were of adequate diagnostic quality. Conclusion and relevance In men with suspected prostate cancer, provided image quality is adequate, an abbreviated biparametric MRI scan, with or without targeted biopsy, could become the new standard of care for prostate cancer diagnosis. With approximately 4 million prostate MRIs performed globally annually, adopting biparametric MRI could substantially increase scanner throughput and reduce costs worldwide. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT04571840

TPS5127 Background: Androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) ± androgen receptor pathway inhibitor therapy is a primary treatment for metastatic hormone-sensitive prostate cancer, but is noncurative and has significant toxicities when used long-term. In patients with OMPC for whom delaying ADT is appropriate, metastasis-directed therapy such as stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT) has been shown to provide local disease control. However, many patients do not experience a complete prostate-specific antigen (PSA) response and develop poly-metastatic disease. [ 177 Lu]Lu-PSMA-617 ( 177 Lu-PSMA-617) is a prostate-specific membrane antigen (PSMA)-targeted radioligand therapy with demonstrated efficacy and a manageable safety profile in patients with PSMA-positive metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer in the VISION and PSMAfore trials. PSMA-DC (NCT05939414) is an ongoing, international, randomized phase 3 trial to evaluate the efficacy of 177 Lu-PSMA-617 versus observation after SBRT in delaying castration and disease progression in patients with PSMA-positive OMPC. Methods: Eligible patients have histologically confirmed prostate cancer, biochemical recurrence post-definitive treatment, OMPC with ≤ 5 PSMA-positive metastatic lesions including ≥ 1 distant metastasis on PSMA PET/CT scans (all must be amenable to SBRT), PSA doubling time < 10 months and non-castration testosterone levels (> 100 ng/dL). Exclusion criteria include distant metastasis by conventional imaging (CI; CT/MRI and bone scans) at screening, prior ADT (except adjuvant ADT completed > 12 months before randomization), or other systemic therapy for metastatic prostate cancer. Patients (N = ~450) will be randomized 2:1 to 177 Lu-PSMA-617 or observation and will receive SBRT to all metastatic lesions within 14 days, completed within 3 weeks. Patients will then receive either intravenous 177 Lu-PSMA-617 (7.4 GBq/6 weeks; 4 cycles), starting 7–21 days after SBRT, or undergo observation only. Additional SBRT for new lesions is allowed. ADT is allowed after a metastasis-free survival (MFS) event by CI confirmed by blinded independent review committee (BIRC). Safety follow-up will occur 42 days after the last 177 Lu-PSMA-617 dose and at the week 24 visit for the observational arm. Long-term follow-up for the 177 Lu-PSMA-617 arm will include safety assessments every ~32 weeks. The primary endpoint is MFS by CI as assessed by BIRC using RECIST v1.1, or death. To provide 90% power to detect a hazard ratio of 0.6, 187 MFS events are required. The key secondary endpoint is time to next hormonal therapy. Additional secondary endpoints include time to PSA progression, radiographic progression-free survival, symptomatic progression, patient-reported health-related quality of life, overall survival and safety. Shore et al. PSMA-delay castration (DC): an open-label, multicenter, randomized phase 3 study of [ 177 Lu]Lu-PSMA-617 versus observation in patients with metachronous PSMA-positive oligometastatic prostate cancer (OMPC). J Urol 2025;213 (5S2_suppl):e28. https://www.auajournals.org/doi/10.1097/01.JU.0001110444.53548.eb . Reused with permission; ©American Urological Association, 2025. This abstract previously presented at 2025 AUA Annual Meeting. Clinical trial information: NCT05939414 .