Shepherd, Lois E.

Abstract Background: Survivor plots permit adjustment by baseline demographics and clinical characteristics; log-normal survival analysis may be more robust than a Cox model under departures from model assumptions. We depicted distant disease-free survival (DDFS) for statistically standardized quantitated ER, PgR, and HER2. Methods: We utilized CCTG MA.27 (NCT00066573), an adjuvant phase III trial of exemestane versus anastrozole in postmenopausal women with ER+ and/or PgR+ tumours. IHC ER, PgR, and HER2 HSCORE were centrally assessed by machine image quantitation, and statistically standardized to mean of 0, standard deviation (SD) of 1 following Box-Cox variance stabilization transformations of square for ER, natural logarithm (ln) and square root for PgR, and ln for HER2. For the ln transformation, 0.1 was added to 0 HSCOREs for a stable transformation. The primary endpoint was DDFS at the longest trial follow-up of 4.1 years. For log-normal survival analysis, ln(time) is a linear function of covariates and had a normal distribution; the Cox models were log-linear for covariates. Survival was depicted with log-normal and Cox survivor plots adjusted at the means of age, T and N stage, grade, lymphovascular invasion, treatment, and baseline patient demographics. We examined ER and PgR ASCO/CAP cut-points at (0; >0), HER2 cut-points at (IHC 0, 0 stain; IHC 0, (0,10%] stain; IHC 1+; IHC 2+; IHC 3+), and ER/PgR/HER2 standardized cut-points at standard deviations about mean of 0 (<-1; (-1,0]; (0,1]; >1). P was based on the likelihood ratio criterion (∼Χ2 (1)) for the addition of ER/PgR/HER2 to the model of baseline covariates, and had nominal significance if P<0.05. Log-normal and Cox multivariable regressions with unstandardized and standardized categorical, and continuous, ER, PgR, and HER2 were adjusted by baseline covariates; 2-sided Wald tests had nominal significance if P<0.05. Results: Of 7576 MA.27 patients, 2325 patients had quantitated image analysis assessments for ER, PgR, and HER2; 113 of 2325 (4.9%) patients experienced a DDFS event during follow-up. Multivariable log-normal survival analysis indicated DDFS was significantly longer for patients with T1 (p=0.01), N0 (p=.002), and grade 1/2 tumors (p=0.01); similar significance levels were found with a Cox model. Log-normal survivor plots were smooth, while Cox survivor plots were step-wise discontinuous at events. Adjusted log-normal survivor plots indicated similar 5-year DDFS for patients by standardized ER categories (p=0.43): 95.4% for those with ER <-1.0 (n=401); 95.8%, for (-1.0,0.0] (n=737); 96.1%, for (0.0,1.0] (n=737); and 96.4%, for >1.0 (n=450). The log-normal standardized PgR survivor plots indicated patients had significantly different 5-year DDFS (p<.001) by categories, with both ln and square root transformations of HSCORE: with a ln transformation, 93.7% for <-1.0 (n=607); 95.4%, for (-1.0,0.0] (n=390); 96.8%, for (0.0,1.0] (n=826); and 97.8%, for >1.0 (n=502). Patients had similar 5-year DDFS by standardized HER2 categories (p=0.71): 96.2% for <-1.0 (n=83); 96.0%, for (-1.0,0.0] (n=1201); 95.9%, for (0.0,1.0] (n=527); and 95.7%, for >1.0 (n=514). In full fit multivariable log-normal survival analyses, DDFS was not significantly different for ER (p=0.51-0.89) and HER2 (p=0.12-0.98); higher PgR was associated with significantly better DDFS (p=0.01 to <.001). Adjusted Cox survival analyses had similar results. Conclusions: Survivor plots adjusted for baseline demographic and clinical characteristics provided similar indications of significance for standardized ER, PgR, and HER2 as those seen in multivariable models with both log-normal and Cox survival analyses. Higher PgR was associated with significantly better DDFS. Citation Format: J. W. Chapman, J. Bayani, S. SenGupta, J. M. S. Bartlett, T. Piper, M. A. Quintayo, S. Virk, P. E. Goss, J. N. Ingle, M. J. Ellis, G. W. Sledge, G. T. Budd, M. Rabaglio, R. H. Ansari, R. Tozer, D. P. D'Souza, H. Chalchal, S. Spadafora, V. Stearns, E. A. Perez, K. A. Gelmon, T. J. Whelan, C. Elliott, L. E. Shepherd, B. E. Chen, K. J. Taylor. Survivor plots for quantitated adjunctive statistically standardized ER, PgR, and HER2 in adjuvant postmenopausal breast cancer: Canadian Cancer Trials Group MA.27 trial of exemestane versus anastrozole [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium 2025; 2025 Dec 9-12; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Clin Cancer Res 2026;32(4 Suppl):Abstract nr PS3-07-23.

PURPOSE ASCO/College of American Pathologists guidelines recommend reporting estrogen receptor (ER) and progesterone receptor (PgR) as positive with (1%-100%) staining. Statistically standardized quantitated positivity could indicate differential associations of positivity with breast cancer outcomes. METHODS MA.27 (ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT00066573 ) was a phase III adjuvant trial of exemestane versus anastrozole in postmenopausal women with early-stage breast cancer. Immunochemistry ER and PgR HSCORE and % positivity (%+) were centrally assessed by machine image quantitation and statistically standardized to mean 0 and standard deviation (SD) 1 after Box-Cox variance stabilization transformations of square for ER; for PgR, (1) natural logarithm (0.1 added to 0 HSCOREs and 0%+) and (2) square root. Our primary end point was MA.27 distant disease-free survival (DDFS) at a median 4.1-year follow-up, and secondary end point was event-free survival (EFS). Univariate survival with cut points at SDs about a mean of 0 (≤–1; (–1, 0]; (0, 1]; >1) was described with Kaplan-Meier plots and examined with Wilcoxon (Peto-Prentice) test statistic. Adjusted Cox multivariable regressions had two-sided Wald tests and nominal significance P < .05. RESULTS Of 7,576 women accrued, 3,048 women's tumors had machine-quantitated image analysis results: 2,900 (95%) for ER, 2,726 (89%) for PgR, and 2,582 (85% of 3,048) with both ER and PgR. Higher statistically standardized ER and PgR HSCORE and %+ were associated with better univariate DDFS and EFS ( P < .001). In multivariable assessments, ER HSCORE and %+ were not significantly associated ( P = .52-.88) with DDFS in models with PgR, whereas higher PgR HSCORE and %+ were significantly associated with better DDFS ( P = .001) in models with ER. CONCLUSION Adjunctive statistical standardization differentiated quantitated levels of ER and PgR. Patients with higher ER- and PgR-standardized units had superior DDFS compared with those with HSCOREs and %+ ≤–1.

Abstract Introduction: Analyses of multiple clinical trials have suggested racial and ethnic disparities in outcomes for early-stage, hormone receptor-positive and HER2-negative (HR+HER2-) breast cancer, however, none of these studies examined the use of adjuvant CDK4/6 inhibitors. The objective of this study was to explore racial and ethnic differences in toxicity, treatment duration, and disease outcomes in patients (pts) with early-stage HR+HER2- breast cancer treated with or without adjuvant palbociclib on the PALLAS trial. Methods: The PALLAS phase III, global, open-label trial randomized 5,796 pts with stage II-III HR+HER2- breast cancer to 2 years of palbociclib plus ongoing provider/patient choice adjuvant endocrine therapy (ET+palbo) vs. ET alone (ET). The analytic cohort was limited to pts enrolled in North America with known self-reported race and ethnicity (Non-Hispanic White, Non-Hispanic Black, Hispanic, Asian or Pacific Islander). Descriptive statistics were used to examine treatment characteristics, early discontinuation, and toxicity by race and ethnicity. Kaplan-Meier curves were used to estimate 3-year locoregional recurrence-free survival (LRFS) and invasive disease-free survival (IDFS) stratified by racial and ethnic group. Cox proportional hazards models were used identify predictors of LRFS and IDFS. Results: 2,547 North American pts were randomized and included in the intent-to-treat population with a median follow-up of 59.8 months; 1,996 (78.4%) identified as Non-Hispanic White (NHW), 132 (5.2%) Non-Hispanic Black (NHB), 156 (6.1%) Hispanic, and 134 (5.3%) Asian or Pacific Islander (API). Stage, performance status, type of surgery, and prior radiation were similar across racial and ethnic groups. Age, body mass index, grade, and prior chemotherapy differed by race and ethnicity (p&lt; 0.05). Median age was lowest in API pts and highest in NHW pts (47.5 vs 53.0 years, respectively). Median body mass index was lowest in API and highest in NHB pts (24.4 vs 30.9). NHB pts were most likely to have high-grade disease (40.9% vs 26.9-30.5% in other groups). NHW pts were least likely to have received prior chemotherapy (81.0% vs 87.1-91.0%). Palbociclib early discontinuation was lowest in NHB pts (50.7%) and highest in Hispanic pts (65.9%), p=0.14. ET early discontinuation was similar across all groups (p=0.35). Palbociclib grade 3-4 overall toxicity was variable across groups (NHW 71.6%, NHB 79.1%, Hispanic 69.5%, API 85.2%), but this variation did not reach statistical significance (p=0.07). Neutropenia was highest in API pts (90.0% vs 57.3% in NHW, 58.2% in NHB, and 51.2% in Hispanic pts, p&lt; 0.01). Overall 3-year LRFS was 98% (95% CI 97-98%) and IDFS was 89% (95% CI 88-90%). LRFS and IDFS were statistically similar by race and ethnicity and within each study arm (Table). No differences in LRFS or IDFS were seen by race or ethnicity in adjusted models (p=0.95). Conclusions: In this clinical trial population of HR+HER2- breast cancer patients exposed to similar treatments, no racial/ethnic differences were seen in short-term LRFS or IDFS across study arms. Differences in palbociclib toxicity by racial and ethnic group, particularly neutropenia, were seen with the highest toxicity in API patients; however, this difference did not translate into early discontinuation of palbociclib or ET. Table: 3-year Kaplan-Meier Survival Outcomes Stratified by Race and Ethnicity Citation Format: Olga Kantor, Oluwadamilola (Lola) Fayanju, Amylou Dueck, Michael Gnant, Harold Burstein, Matthew Goetz, Claudine Isaacs, Lois Shepherd, Olwen Hahn, Daniel Anderson, Kathy Miller, Hope Rugo, Tiffany Traina, Zoneddy Dayao, Katherine Clifton, Eric Winer, Antonio Wolff, Norman Wolmark, Dongrui Lu, Patrick O'Brien, Sara Scovil, Angela DeMichele, Erica Mayer. Racial and Ethnic Differences in Clinical Outcomes among North American Patients with Hormone Receptor-Positive, HER2-negative, Early Breast Cancer in the PALLAS Trial (AFT-05) [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 2023 San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium; 2023 Dec 5-9; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2024;84(9 Suppl):Abstract nr PO3-02-05.

Clinical trials frequently include multiple end points that mature at different times. The initial report, typically based on the primary end point, may be published when key planned coprimary or secondary analyses are not yet available. Clinical trial updates provide an opportunity to disseminate additional results from studies, published in JCO or elsewhere, for which the primary end point has already been reported. Metformin has been associated with lower cancer risk in epidemiologic and preclinical research. In the MA.32 randomized adjuvant breast cancer trial, metformin ( v placebo) did not affect invasive disease-free or overall survival. Here, we report metformin effects on the risk of new cancer. Between 2010 and 2013, 3,649 patients with breast cancer younger than 75 years without diabetes with high-risk T1-3, N0-3 M0 breast cancer (any estrogen receptor, progesterone receptor, human epidermal growth factor receptor 2) were randomly assigned to metformin 850 mg orally twice a day or placebo twice a day for 5 years. New primary invasive cancers (outside the ipsilateral breast) developing as a first event were identified. Time to events was described by the competing risks method; two-sided likelihood ratio tests adjusting for age, BMI, smoking, and alcohol intake were used to compare metformin versus placebo arms. A total of 184 patients developed new invasive cancers: 102 metformin and 82 placebo, hazard ratio (HR), 1.25; 95% CI, 0.94 to 1.68; P = .13. These included 48 contralateral invasive breast cancers (27 metformin v 21 placebo), HR, 1.29; 95% CI, 0.72 to 2.27; P = .40 and 136 new nonbreast primary cancers (75 metformin v 61 placebo), HR, 1.24; 95% CI, 0.88 to 1.74; P = .21. Metformin did not reduce the risk of new cancer development in these nondiabetic patients with breast cancer.

PURPOSE BMI affects breast cancer risk and prognosis. In contrast to cytotoxic chemotherapy, CDK4/6 inhibitors are given at a fixed dose, irrespective of BMI or weight. This preplanned analysis of the global randomized PALLAS trial investigates the impact of BMI on the side-effect profile, treatment adherence, and efficacy of palbociclib. METHODS Patients were categorized at baseline according to WHO BMI categories. Neutropenia rates were assessed with univariable and multivariable logistic regression. Time to early discontinuation of palbociclib was analyzed with Fine and Gray competing risk models. Unstratified Cox models were used to investigate the association between BMI category and time to invasive disease-free survival (iDFS). 95% CIs were derived. RESULTS Of 5,698 patients included in this analysis, 68 (1.2%) were underweight, 2,082 (36.5%) normal weight, 1,818 (31.9%) overweight, and 1,730 (30.4%) obese at baseline. In the palbociclib arm, higher BMI was associated with a significant decrease in neutropenia (unadjusted odds ratio for 1-unit change, 0.93; 95% CI, 0.91 to 0.94; adjusted for age, race ethnicity, region, chemotherapy use, and Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group at baseline, 0.93; 95% CI, 0.92 to 0.95). This translated into a significant decrease in treatment discontinuation rate with higher BMI (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] for 10-unit change, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.67 to 0.83). There was no significant improvement in iDFS with the addition of palbociclib to ET in any weight category (normal weight HR, 0.84; 95% CI, 0.63 to 1.12; overweight HR, 1.10; 95% CI, 0.82 to 1.49; and obese HR, 0.95; 95% CI, 0.69 to 1.30) in this analysis early in follow-up (31 months). CONCLUSION This preplanned analysis of the PALLAS trial demonstrates a significant impact of BMI on side effects, dose reductions, early treatment discontinuation, and relative dose intensity. Additional long-term follow-up will further evaluate whether BMI ultimately affects outcome.

Abstract Basket, umbrella, and platform trial designs (master protocols) have emerged over the last decade to study precision medicine approaches in oncology. First-generation trials like NCI-MATCH (Molecular Analysis for Therapy Choice) have proven the principle that studying targeted therapies on a large scale is feasible both from the laboratory and clinical perspectives. However, single-agent targeted therapies have shown limited ability to control metastatic disease, despite careful matching of drug to target. As such, newer approaches employing combinations of targeted therapy, or targeted therapy with standard therapies, need to be considered. The NCI has recently embarked on three second-generation precision medicine trials to address this need: ComboMATCH, iMATCH, and myeloMATCH. The design of these trials and necessary infrastructure are discussed in the following perspective.

Abstract Background: MET has been associated with beneficial anti-cancer effects in epidemiologic and preclinical research. It may act indirectly by reversing obesity associated physiologic changes or directly via mitochondrial mediated effects on LKB1/AMPK/mTOR and other mechanisms. MA.32 investigated the effect of MET vs PLAC (in addition to standard therapy) on adjuvant BC outcomes. Design: Randomized, placebo-controlled double-blind Phase III clinical trial conducted within the NCI US National Clinical Trials Network, NCRI (UK) BG, IBCSG. Methods: Between 2010-2013 BC patients &lt; 75 yo without diabetes (DM) with high risk T1-3, N0-3 M0 BC regardless of ER, PgR, HER2 and with adequate cardiac, renal and hepatic function were randomized (stratified for ER/PgR + vs -, BMI &lt; vs &gt; 30 kg/m2, HER2 +ve vs -ve, any vs no chemo) within 1 year of BC diagnosis to MET 850 mg po bid or PLAC bid for 5 years. Dose was reduced for toxicity with re-escalation when possible. Subjects were followed for Invasive Disease-Free Survival (IDFS primary outcome; events included invasive local/regional recurrences, distant recurrences, new ipsilateral/contralateral invasive BCs, new non-breast primary cancers, any death), Overall Survival (OS), Distant Relapse Free Survival (DRFS), BC Specific Survival (BCSS), BC Free Interval (BCFI), contralateral BC and cardiovascular (CV) events/new DM. 3582 subjects were required for 80% power to detect HR 0.76 (431 events). In 2011, entry was restricted to higher risk BC, leading to 80% power to detect HR 0.785 (544 events). In 2016, after the 2nd interim analysis at 29.5 months median F/U, the DSMB recommended (i) the intervention be continued with primary analysis triggered at 544 events be conducted in ER/PgR +ve (any HER2) subjects only and (ii) ER/PgR -ve subjects stop study drug for futility but blinding and follow-up continue. In 2021, a time driven analysis in ER/PgR +ve BC was approved (465 events providing 80% power to detect the original HR 0.76). Time to event survival described by the Kaplan-Meier method. Two-sided log-rank tests adjusting for stratification factors were primarily used to compare IDFS between arms. Cox proportional hazards models were used to identify and adjust for factors significantly related to IDFS. Results: 3649 subjects were enrolled. In the 2533 ER/PgR +ve subjects included in the primary analysis, baseline mean (± SD) age was 52.7 (±9.9 yrs); mean BMI 28.8 (±6.4) kg/m2. Baseline tumor characteristics were balanced: T stage 1/2/3/4 = 832/1351/349/1; N stage 0/1/2/3 = 964/1097/449/23; HER2+ 429. 1901 (75%) received XRT. 2150 (84.9%) received (neo)adj chemo, 2223 (87.8%) (neo)adj hormones and 434 (17.1%) HER2 targeted therapy. Any Grade ≥ 3 toxicity was similar in MET and PLAC arms (21.7% and 18.7%, P = 0.06). Median follow-up was 96.2 (range 0.2-121.0) months with 465 IDFS events (234 MET, 231 PLAC, 76% due to BC). Efficacy results are shown below. MET vs PLACMET vs PLACIDFSOSPopulation Included# subjectsHR (95% CI)HR (95% CI)PRIMARY ANALYSISER/PgR +ve (any HER2)*25331.01 (0.84-1.21). P=0.920.89 (0.64-1.23). P=0.46ER/PgR -ve (any HER211161.01 (0.79-1.30. P=0.92)0.89 (0.64-1.23). P=0.46Exploratory. AnalysisHER2 +ve (any ER/PgR)6200.64 (0.43-0.95. P=0.0260.53 (0.30-0.98. P=0.0398**in ER/PgR pos BC HRs were similar for BCFI, DRFS, BCSS (ranging from 0.98-1.09)Conclusions: MET did not improve IDFS or other BC outcomes in ER/PgR positive or ER/PgR negative BC and should not be used as adjuvant treatment. Exploratory findings suggesting benefit in HER2+ve BC should be further investigated. Funded by: CCSRI, NCI (US), CBCF, BCRF, CRUK, Hold’Em for Life Charity, Apotex (Canada) Citation Format: Pamela J. Goodwin, Bingshu E Chen, Karen A Gelmon, Timothy J Whelan, Marguerite Ennis, Julie Lemieux, Jennifer A Ligibel, Dawn L Hershman, Ingrid A Mayer, Timothy J Hobday, Judith M Bliss, Priya Rastogi, Manuela Rabaglio-Poretti, Som D. Mukherjee, Robert R Mackey, Vandana G Abramson, Conrad Oja, Robert Wesolowski, Alastair M Thompson, Daniel W Rea, Paul M Stos, Lois E Shepherd, Vuk Stambolic, Wendy R Parulekar. CCTGMA.32, a phase III randomized double-blind placebo controlled adjuvant trial of metformin (MET) vs placebo (PLAC) in early breast cancer (BC): Results of the primary efficacy analysis (clinical trials.gov NCT01101438) [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 2021 San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium; 2021 Dec 7-10; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2022;82(4 Suppl):Abstract nr GS1-08.

Abstract Background Circulating levels of cancer antigen (CA) 15–3, a tumor marker and regulator of cellular metabolism, were reduced by metformin in a nonrandomized neoadjuvant study. We examined the effects of metformin (vs placebo) on CA 15–3 in participants of MA.32, a phase III randomized trial in early-stage breast cancer. Methods A total of 3649 patients with T1-3, N0-3, M0 breast cancer were randomly assigned; pretreatment and 6-month on-treatment fasting plasma were centrally assayed for CA 15–3. Genomic DNA was analyzed for the rs11212617 single nucleotide polymorphism. Absolute and relative change of CA 15–3 (metformin vs placebo) were compared using Wilcoxon rank and t tests. Regression models adjusted for baseline differences and assessed key interactions. All statistical tests were 2-sided. Results Mean (SD) age was 52.4 (10.0) years. The majority of patients had T2/3, node-positive, hormone receptor–positive, HER2-negative breast cancer treated with (neo)adjuvant chemotherapy and hormone therapy. Mean (SD) baseline CA 15–3 was 17.7 (7.6) and 18.0 (8.1 U/mL). At 6 months, CA 15–3 was statistically significantly reduced in metformin vs placebo arms (absolute geometric mean reduction in CA 15–3 = 7.7% vs 2.0%, P &lt; .001; relative metformin: placebo level of CA 15–3 [adjusted for age, baseline body mass index, and baseline CA 15–3] = 0.94, 95% confidence interval = 0.92 to 0.96). This reduction was independent of tumor characteristics, perioperative systemic therapy, baseline body mass index, insulin, and the single nucleotide polymorphism status (all Ps &gt; .11). Conclusions Our observation that metformin reduces CA 15–3 by approximately 6% was corroborated in a large placebo-controlled randomized trial. The clinical implications of this reduction in CA 15–3 will be explored in upcoming efficacy analyses of breast cancer outcomes in MA.32.

Aromatase inhibitors (AIs) are the treatment of choice for hormone receptor–positive early breast cancer in postmenopausal women. None of the third‐generation AIs are superior to the others in terms of efficacy. We attempted to identify genetic factors that could differentiate between the effectiveness of adjuvant anastrozole and exemestane by examining single‐nucleotide polymorphism (SNP)‐treatment interaction in 4,465 patients. A group of SNPs were found to be differentially associated between anastrozole and exemestane regarding outcomes. However, they showed no association with outcome in the combined analysis. We followed up common SNPs near LY75 and GPR160 that could differentiate anastrozole from exemestane efficacy. LY75 and GPR160 participate in epithelial‐to‐mesenchymal transition and growth pathways, in both cases with SNP‐dependent variation in regulation. Collectively, these studies identified SNPs that differentiate the efficacy of anastrozole and exemestane and they suggest additional genetic biomarkers for possible use in selecting an AI for a given patient.