Martín, Miguel

Abstract Introduction: Pathological complete response (pCR) is a strong prognostic marker, but survival outcomes comparing treatment to control do not reliably align with treatment-control differences in pCR rates in breast cancer. A novel Bayesian hierarchical framework models treatments within trials, allowing us to predict treatment effects on distant recurrence-free survival (DRFS) from pCR with greater accuracy. Methods: We analyzed 12 neoadjuvant breast cancer trials (6,000 patients, all HR/HER2 subtypes; including I-SPY2). The framework of Burzykowski, Molenberghs & Buyse (2005) is extended to a novel arm-based hierarchical structure providing a distribution of pCR and DRFS treatment effects controlling for subtype (HR/HER2), N and T stage, grade, and calendar year. Three held-out trials (877 patients; 26 regimens; med follow-up >4 years) validate predictions of DRFS treatment benefit from pCR. All data was used to estimate treatment-effect correlation and the surrogate threshold effect (STE). Analyses were repeated for Residual Cancer Burden Index (binary RCB01, continuous RCB). Results: Predicted probability of DRFS benefit closely matched actual DRFS follow-up (mean absolute error 0.06; Pearson r = 0.9). Across all trials, pCR showed moderate surrogacy (ρ = 0.82, R2 = 0.67). A 60% increase in pCR odds achieves ≥95% probability of DRFS benefit (STE = OR of 1.60). RCB outperforms pCR across all metrics, with 92% sensitivity and 93% specificity for detecting DRFS benefit in 26 validation regimens (Table 1). Conclusion: This novel Bayesian meta-analytic framework reveals that pCR, RCB01 and continuous RCB reliably predict survival benefit across heterogeneous trials, with RCB performing the best in an external validation. This provides a statistical foundation for accelerated approval decisions using robust early biomarkers in modern neoadjuvant trial designs by accurately predicting survival at the treatment arm level. Citation Format: Keli S. Santos-Parker, Jessica R. Santos-Parker, W. Fraser Symmans, Laura J. Esserman, Christina Yau, Angie DeMichele, Laura van't Veer, Doug Yee, Fabien Reyal, Helena Earl, Jean Abraham, David Cameron, Peter Hall, Judy Boughey, Matthew Goetz, Gabe Sonke, Miguel Martín, Sara López-Tarruella, Priyanka Sharma, Rachel Freiberg, Jane Perlmutter, Aditya Bardia, Martin Eklund, Rachel Freiberg, Lajos Pusztai. A novel statistical framework for surrogate endpoint prediction of survival in neoadjuvant breast cancer trials [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2026; Part 1 (Regular Abstracts); 2026 Apr 17-22; San Diego, CA. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2026;86(7 Suppl):Abstract nr 1401.

PURPOSE The HER2CLIMB-05 study (ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT05132582 ) is investigating the efficacy and safety of adding tucatinib to trastuzumab and pertuzumab as first-line (1L) maintenance therapy in patients with human epidermal growth factor receptor 2–positive (HER2+) metastatic breast cancer (MBC). METHODS Patients with centrally confirmed HER2+ MBC without evidence of progression post induction therapy and no or asymptomatic brain metastases (BM) were enrolled. Patients were randomly assigned 1:1 to tucatinib (300 mg) or placebo twice a day combined with trastuzumab/pertuzumab. The primary end point is investigator-assessed progression-free survival (PFS); secondary end points include overall survival (OS), PFS per blinded independent central review, CNS-PFS, and safety. RESULTS Between March 2022 and July 2024, 654 patients were randomly assigned to tucatinib (n = 326) and placebo (n = 328) arms. All patients were female (median age, 54 years), 69.3% had de novo MBC, 52.6% were hormone receptor–positive, and 12.4% had presence/history of baseline BM. In this primary analysis, PFS was statistically significantly improved with addition of tucatinib versus placebo (hazard ratio, 0.641 [95% CI, 0.514 to 0.799]; P < .0001; median PFS: 24.9 v 16.3 months); a PFS benefit was seen regardless of the presence/absence of BM or hormone receptor status. OS data remain immature. The most common treatment-emergent adverse events (TEAEs) in the tucatinib arm were diarrhea (72.7%), nausea (33.1%), and elevated liver enzymes (ALT: 28.2%; AST: 25.8%), of which 6.1%, 0.9%, 13.5%, and 7.1%, respectively, were grade ≥3. In the tucatinib arm, 13.5% discontinued tucatinib because of TEAEs. CONCLUSION Tucatinib addition to trastuzumab and pertuzumab demonstrated improvement in PFS with no new safety signals identified and may be an option for 1L maintenance therapy in patients with HER2+ MBC.

538 Background: The phase 3 PALLAS trial compared 2 years of the CDK4/6 inhibitor palbociclib with endocrine therapy of provider choice, versus endocrine therapy alone, as adjuvant treatment for patients (pts) with Stage II-III hormone receptor-positive HER2-negative (HR+/HER2-) breast cancer. The SET2,3 index adjusts the measurement of SETER/PR index of endocrine receptor-related transcriptional activity with a baseline prognostic index (BPI) derived from tumor size (T), number of involved lymph nodes (N) and gene expression levels of ESR1, PGR, ERBB2 and AURKA (RNA4 subtype score). High SET2,3 (index ≥ 2.10) represents high endocrine sensitivity with favorable prognosis. Clinical outcome results from PALLAS were previously published, and the trial now has 5-year median follow-up. Methods: Participants in PALLAS provided a tumor tissue block prior to randomization. RNA was extracted from samples with sufficient tumor tissue and cellularity (>25mm2 with ≥20% cancer nuclei). SET2,3 index was measured from 300ng total RNA using the QuantiGene Plex platform (ThermoFisher, Waltham, MA) following the manufacturer’s protocol and using pre-defined quality control (QC) parameters and cut point. Results from primary tumor samples prior to systemic therapy were analyzed. Invasive disease-free survival (iDFS) was summarized with Kaplan-Meier plots using log-rank test. Cox models were adjusted for treatment arm assignment, with a treatment arm by SET index value interaction term to test for prediction of palbociclib benefit. The pre-defined level of significance was a two-sided 0.05. Results: There were 4075 pts from the total PALLAS population (N=5796) who provided a primary tumor sample that met pre-analytical requirements to perform the SET assay, from which 3388 (83%) results passed quality control, including 3093 from a sample obtained prior to receiving systemic therapy (1559 in palbociclib arm and 1534 in the control arm). SET2,3 index could not be calculated for 12 pts due to missing tumor or nodal information. There was no evidence of an interaction between treatment arm and SET indices (continuous) for iDFS: SET2,3 index interaction p=0.12 and SETER/PR index interaction p=0.92. Estimated 5-year iDFS was superior for those with high SET2,3: iDFS was 91.4% (95%CI 89.9–92.8) in 1719 (55.8%) pts with high SET2,3, versus 78.5% (95%CI 76.0–80.8) in 1362 (44.2%) pts with low SET2,3 (HR 0.38, 95%CI 0.31–0.47, p<0.0001). The SETER/PR index was also significantly associated with iDFS (HR 0.70 per 0.5 units, 95%CI 0.65–0.77, p<0.0001). Conclusions: There was no evidence that the SET2,3 or SETER/PR index of endocrine-related transcriptional activity predicts benefit from palbociclib treatment. SET2,3 index was strongly prognostic for pts with Stage II-III breast cancer, with excellent 5-year IDFS for pts classified as SET2,3 high. Clinical trial information: NCT02513394 .

Abstract Background The current first-line (1L) standard of care (SOC) for human epidermal growth factor receptor 2-positive (HER2+) metastatic breast cancer (MBC) is trastuzumab (T) plus pertuzumab (P) and a taxane. Despite advances in 1L SOC, most patients progress during maintenance therapy with T+P. Tucatinib is a tyrosine kinase inhibitor (TKI) approved in combination with T and capecitabine for adults with HER2+ MBC, with and without brain metastases (BM). In HER2CLIMB, addition of tucatinib significantly prolonged progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) in patients with HER2+ MBC and was well tolerated. Adding tucatinib also reduced the risk of disease progression or death in patients with untreated and/or active BM (Murthy et al. NEJM 2020, Curigliano et al. Ann Oncol 2022). HER2CLIMB-05 investigates whether adding tucatinib to 1L SOC as maintenance therapy will extend PFS while maintaining quality of life (QOL). Methods HER2CLIMB-05 (NCT05132582) is a phase 3, randomized, double-blind study evaluating tucatinib plus T+P as maintenance therapy for HER2+ MBC. Approximately 650 patients will be enrolled. Eligible patients will have advanced HER2+ disease, no progression on 4–8 cycles of prior 1L SOC, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group Performance Status of 0 or 1, and no or asymptomatic BM. Exclusion criteria include prior treatment with anti-HER2 and/or anti-epidermal growth factor receptor TKI (prior SOC for early BC is permitted) or inability to undergo contrast magnetic resonance imaging of the brain. Patients will be randomized 1:1 to receive either tucatinib or placebo twice daily, with T+P once every 21 days. Patients with hormone receptor-positive disease may receive endocrine therapy. The primary endpoint is investigator-assessed PFS. Secondary endpoints include OS, time to deterioration of health-related QOL, central nervous system PFS, safety, and pharmacokinetic (PK) parameters. PFS and OS will be compared using a two-sided stratified log-rank test between treatment groups. Time-to-event endpoints will be summarized using the Kaplan–Meier method. PK and safety data will be summarized using descriptive statistics. Enrollment is ongoing in Austria, Chile, Greece, Italy, Japan, Poland, Portugal, Spain, the US, and several other European, APAC, and LATAM countries. This abstract was previously presented at ESMO-BC 2022, FPN (Final Publication Number): 415, by Veronique Dieras (reused with permission). Citation Format: Erika Hamilton, Junji Tsurutani, Giuseppe Curigliano, Miguel Martín, Ciara O'Sullivan, Joo Hyuk Sohn, Konstantinos Tryfonidis, Libero Santarpia, Shan Yang, Véronique Diéras. Phase 3 Study of Tucatinib or Placebo in Combination With Trastuzumab and Pertuzumab as Maintenance Therapy for HER2+ Metastatic Breast Cancer (HER2CLIMB-05, Trial in Progress) [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 2023 San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium; 2023 Dec 5-9; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2024;84(9 Suppl):Abstract nr PO1-19-11.

Abstract Background: Low levels of HER2 expression (HER2-low) have recently emerged as a therapeutic target in patients (pts) with breast cancer (BC). The aim of this study was to evaluate clinical and demographic variables associated with HER2 expression, as well as the value of HER2-low as a prognostic and predictive biomarker for palbociclib benefit in pts enrolled in the PALLAS trial. Methods: The phase III PALLAS trial investigated the addition of palbociclib to adjuvant endocrine therapy (ET) in pts with stage II-III hormone receptor-positive BC. The aims of this analysis are (1) to assess the association between the presence of low levels of HER2 expression with demographic and clinicopathological parameters, (2) to test the prognostic value of HER2-low status on invasive disease-free survival (IDFS), distant relapse-free survival (DRFS), and overall survival (OS) and (3) to assess the value of HER2 expression as a predictive biomarker of response to palbociclib. HER2-low was defined as HER2 immunohistochemistry (IHC) 1+ or IHC 2+ with negative in situ hybridization; all pathologic evaluation was performed locally. Pts with HER2-0 and Her2-low BC were included in this analysis; those with HER2-positive BC or missing HER2 status were excluded. Association of HER2 with other baseline covariates were tested with Chi-squared tests. Prognostic and predictive power of HER2 were assessed with Cox Models. Multivariable models included age, T-stage, N-stage, grade and progesterone receptor (PR) expression. Hazard ratios (HR) and 95% Confidence intervals (CI) are reported. Results: From the original PALLAS intention-to-treat population (N = 5,753), 5304 pts (92.2%) were included in this analysis. Among these, 2,254 pts (42.5%) were classified as HER2 IHC 0 (HER2-0) and 3,050 (57.5%) as HER2-low (1,838 with IHC 1+ and 1,212 with IHC 2+). For this analysis, median follow-up was 59.8 months. Compared to HER2-0, pts with HER2-low tumors had statistically higher estrogen receptor expression levels (mean expression 89.2% vs 88.2%, p = 0.019), lower PR expression levels (65.9% vs 68.2%, p = 0.007). Importantly, HER2-low status varied significantly across 21 participating countries (range 16.7% to 75.6%; p&lt; 0.001) and was more frequent in pts enrolled in North America (63.1%) than in Europe (53.4%) and other regions (53.4%) (p &lt; 0.001). No differences in HER2 expression were observed according to anatomic stage, T-stage, N-stage, histological grade, age, menopausal status, primary surgery type, prior radiation, prior chemotherapy, or baseline performance status. There were no statistically significant differences in IDFS, DRFS or OS according to HER2 status in univariate or multivariable Cox models (prognostic value, HR provided in the Table). There was no significant interaction between the HER2 status and the benefit to palbociclib in IDFS, DRFS or OS (Table). Similar results were obtained when HER2-0 was compared to HER2 1+ and HER2 2+ separately. Conclusions: In this large, prospective and international cohort, no differences were observed in clinical parameters, prognosis, or differential benefit from palbociclib (predictive value) between HER2-0 and HER2-low tumors. Significant geographic variability was observed in the prevalence of HER2-low status, suggesting a high degree of variation in pathologic assessment of HER2 expression without impact on outcomes. Support: AFT, Abbvie Pfizer; Clinicaltrials.gov: NCT02513394 https://acknowledgments.alliancefound.org Citation Format: Guilherme Nader-Marta, Christian F. Singer, Dominik Hlauschek, Angela DeMichele, Paolo Tarantino, Georg Pfeiler, Miguel Martín, Justin Balko, Zbigniew Nowecki, Marija Balic, Adam Brufsky, Arlene Chan, Patrick G. Morris, Tufia Haddad, Sibylle Loibl, Yuan Liu, Lidija Sölkner, Christian Fesl, Erica Mayer, Michael Gnant. Clinical characterization, prognostic and predictive values of HER2-low in early breast cancer in the PALLAS trial [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 2023 San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium; 2023 Dec 5-9; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2024;84(9 Suppl):Abstract nr PO1-01-13.

Clinical trials frequently include multiple end points that mature at different times. The initial report, typically based on the primary end point, may be published when key planned co-primary or secondary analyses are not yet available. Clinical trial updates provide an opportunity to disseminate additional results from studies, published in JCO or elsewhere, for which the primary end point has already been reported. Two years of adjuvant abemaciclib combined with endocrine therapy (ET) resulted in a significant improvement in invasive disease-free survival (IDFS) and distant relapse-free survival (DRFS) that persisted beyond the 2-year treatment period in patients with hormone receptor–positive, human epidermal growth factor receptor 2–negative, node-positive, high-risk early breast cancer (EBC). Here, we report 5-year efficacy results from a prespecified overall survival (OS) interim analysis. In the intent-to-treat population, with a median follow-up of 54 months, the benefit of abemaciclib was sustained with hazard ratios of 0.680 (95% CI, 0.599 to 0.772) for IDFS and 0.675 (95% CI, 0.588 to 0.774) for DRFS. This persistence of abemaciclib benefit translated to continuous separation of the curves with a deepening in 5-year absolute improvement in IDFS and DRFS rates of 7.6% and 6.7%, respectively, compared with rates of 6% and 5.3% at 4 years and 4.8% and 4.1% at 3 years. With fewer deaths in the abemaciclib plus ET arm compared with the ET-alone arm (208 v 234), statistical significance was not reached for OS. No new safety signals were observed. In conclusion, abemaciclib plus ET continued to reduce the risk of developing invasive and distant disease recurrence beyond the completion of treatment. The increasing absolute improvement at 5 years is consistent with a carryover effect and further supports the use of abemaciclib in patients with high-risk EBC.

Abstract Purpose: To identify potential predictors of response and resistance mechanisms in patients with hormone receptor–positive (HR+), HER2-negative (HER2−) advanced breast cancer (ABC) treated with the cyclin-dependent kinase 4 and 6 (CDK4/6) inhibitor abemaciclib ± endocrine therapy (ET), baseline and acquired genomic alterations in circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) were analyzed and associated with clinical outcomes. Experimental Design: MONARCH 3: postmenopausal women with HR+, HER2− ABC and no prior systemic therapy in the advanced setting were randomly assigned to abemaciclib or placebo plus nonsteroidal aromatase inhibitor (NSAI). nextMONARCH: women with HR+, HER2− metastatic breast cancer that progressed on/after prior ET and chemotherapy were randomly assigned to abemaciclib alone (two doses) or plus tamoxifen. Baseline and end-of-treatment plasma samples from patients in MONARCH 3 and nextMONARCH (monotherapy arms) were analyzed to identify somatic genomic alterations. Association between genomic alterations and median progression-free survival (mPFS) was assessed. Results: Most patients had ≥1 genomic alteration detected in baseline ctDNA. In MONARCH 3, abemaciclib+NSAI was associated with improved mPFS versus placebo+NSAI, regardless of baseline alterations. ESR1 alterations were less frequently acquired in the abemaciclib+NSAI arm than placebo+NSAI. Acquired alterations potentially associated with resistance to abemaciclib ± NSAI included RB1 and MYC. Conclusions: In MONARCH 3, certain baseline ctDNA genomic alterations were prognostic for ET but not predictive of abemaciclib response. Further studies are warranted to assess whether ctDNA alterations acquired during abemaciclib treatment differ from other CDK4/6 inhibitors. Findings are hypothesis generating; further exploration is warranted into mechanisms of resistance to abemaciclib and ET. See related commentary by Wander and Bardia, p. 2008

PURPOSE BMI affects breast cancer risk and prognosis. In contrast to cytotoxic chemotherapy, CDK4/6 inhibitors are given at a fixed dose, irrespective of BMI or weight. This preplanned analysis of the global randomized PALLAS trial investigates the impact of BMI on the side-effect profile, treatment adherence, and efficacy of palbociclib. METHODS Patients were categorized at baseline according to WHO BMI categories. Neutropenia rates were assessed with univariable and multivariable logistic regression. Time to early discontinuation of palbociclib was analyzed with Fine and Gray competing risk models. Unstratified Cox models were used to investigate the association between BMI category and time to invasive disease-free survival (iDFS). 95% CIs were derived. RESULTS Of 5,698 patients included in this analysis, 68 (1.2%) were underweight, 2,082 (36.5%) normal weight, 1,818 (31.9%) overweight, and 1,730 (30.4%) obese at baseline. In the palbociclib arm, higher BMI was associated with a significant decrease in neutropenia (unadjusted odds ratio for 1-unit change, 0.93; 95% CI, 0.91 to 0.94; adjusted for age, race ethnicity, region, chemotherapy use, and Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group at baseline, 0.93; 95% CI, 0.92 to 0.95). This translated into a significant decrease in treatment discontinuation rate with higher BMI (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] for 10-unit change, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.67 to 0.83). There was no significant improvement in iDFS with the addition of palbociclib to ET in any weight category (normal weight HR, 0.84; 95% CI, 0.63 to 1.12; overweight HR, 1.10; 95% CI, 0.82 to 1.49; and obese HR, 0.95; 95% CI, 0.69 to 1.30) in this analysis early in follow-up (31 months). CONCLUSION This preplanned analysis of the PALLAS trial demonstrates a significant impact of BMI on side effects, dose reductions, early treatment discontinuation, and relative dose intensity. Additional long-term follow-up will further evaluate whether BMI ultimately affects outcome.