Tarantino, Paolo

Abstract Objective The validity of progression-free survival (PFS) as a surrogate for overall survival (OS) in the antibody-drug conjugate (ADCs) era remains uncertain. We evaluated the association between treatment effects on PFS and OS in randomized trials of ADCs for metastatic breast cancer (mBC) and explored the surrogate threshold effect (STE). Methods PubMed, Embase, Cochrane, and ClinicalTrials.gov were searched for published randomized controlled phase II–IV trials evaluating ADCs in mBC and reporting hazard ratios (HRs) for both PFS and OS. A meta-epidemiological approach was used. The primary metric was the ratio of hazard ratios (rHR = HR_PFS/ HR_OS), with rHR < 1 indicating a larger effect on PFS. Trial-level associations were assessed using weighted linear regression (R²) and Spearman’s correlation. Results Twenty-one trials (n = 21; 18 phase III) evaluating nine ADCs were included. The pooled rHR was 0.79 (95% CI, 0.73–0.86), indicating a larger relative effect on PFS than OS. Numerically, the largest discrepancies were observed in triple-negative disease (rHR 0.72) and trials allowing crossover (rHR 0.71). Concordant statistical significance between endpoints occurred in 76% of the trials, whereas 24% showed a significant PFS benefit without OS improvement. The trial-level association between PFS and OS was moderate (R² = 0.62; ρ = 0.67). Conclusion Treatment effects on PFS consistently exceeded those on OS, although effect directions were highly concordant between endpoints. These findings provide an exploratory framework to contextualize the relationship between PFS and OS in ADC trials, requiring further validation in diverse clinical settings.

e13076 Background: Progression-free survival (PFS) is frequently used as a primary endpoint in contemporary oncology trials, including antibody–drug conjugate (ADC) studies in metastatic breast cancer (MBC) settings, despite uncertainty regarding its validity as a surrogate for overall survival (OS). A meta-epidemiological analysis was performed to quantify the systematic differences between the treatment effects on PFS and OS in ADC randomized clinical trials (RCTs). Methods: Phase II–III ADC RCTs with MBC patients reporting hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for both progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) were included. Differences in treatment effects within each trial were quantified using the ratio of hazard ratios (rHR = HR_PFS/HR_OS). Random-effects models were used to pool the rHRs across the trials. Prespecified subgroup and meta-regression analyses were used to evaluate the trial characteristics, clinical context, and regulatory status. Sensitivity analyses assessed the robustness across varying assumptions of the within-trial correlation between the endpoints. Results: Twenty-one RCTs evaluating nine ADCs in patients with MBC were included, comprising three phase II (14%) and 18 phase III (86%) studies. The pooled rHR demonstrated significantly larger treatment effects for PFS than for OS (rHR, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.73–0.86), with no between-trial heterogeneity (I² = 0%, τ² = 0). Sensitivity analyses assuming within-trial correlations between PFS and OS ranging from 0 to 0.95 yielded consistent results. Greater divergence between endpoints was observed in trials enrolling patients with triple-negative breast cancer (rHR, 0.72; 95% CI, 0.61–0.85) and HER2-low disease (rHR, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.62–0.96). Phase III trials showed larger differences than phase II trials (rHR, 0.79 vs. 0.89). When OS was a secondary endpoint, divergence was greater than when OS was primary (rHR, 0.77 vs. 0.87). Across trials, 16 of 21 studies (76%) demonstrated concordant effect directions between PFS and OS: 11 (52%) with a statistically significant benefit for both endpoints and 5 (24%) with neither endpoint significant. Discordance occurred in five trials (24%), all characterized by a statistically significant PFS benefit without a corresponding OS improvement. No trial demonstrated an OS benefit in the absence of a PFS benefit. Conclusions: Across ADC trials, PFS systematically overestimated OS treatment effects, underscoring the limitations of PFS as a standalone surrogate endpoint. These findings support the cautious interpretation of PFS-driven efficacy and reinforce the need for endpoint validation frameworks tailored to the mechanism, disease context, and trial design.

Abstract Background: Invasive lobular carcinoma (ILC) is the second most common breast cancer (BC) subtype, accounting for up to 15% of cases. Although several biologic differences between ILC and invasive carcinoma of no special type (NST) have been described, most data are derived from primary tumors. In contrast, the biology of metastatic ILC remains poorly defined. This study aimed to investigate the unique genomic, transcriptomic, and immune landscapes of metastatic ILC using a multi-omic approach. Methods: This real-world study included patients with confirmed NST or pure ILC who had a biopsy of a metastatic lesion or a breast lesion in the setting of known metastatic disease. Tumors underwent whole exome sequencing (NGS 592, NextSeq; WES, NovaSeq), whole transcriptome sequencing (WTS, NovaSeq) (Caris Life Sciences, Phoenix, AZ). Demographic and baseline molecular features were compared across histologic subtypes. Tumor mutational burden (TMB; high ≥10 mut/MB) was assessed by NGS. Immune cell populations were estimated by RNAseq deconvolution (quanTIseq). Pathway enrichment analysis was determined by GSEA. Overall survival (OS) was defined from the date of biopsy to death from any cause using Kaplan-Meier estimates. Statistical tests included chi-square and Mann-Whitney U with multiple testing correction (q<0.05). Results: Among 2,651 metastatic BC samples (ILC n = 608; NST n = 2,043), patients with ILC were older (median 67 vs 63 yrs) and more likely white (81.5% ILC vs 73.1% NST), all p<0.05. By IHC, ILC were more frequently HR+/HER2- (83.6% vs 55.9%), less commonly triple-negative (11.9% vs 29.8%) or HER2+ (4.6% vs 14.3%), all p<0.05. PAM50 subtypes differed between ILC and NST: luminal A (Lum A) (31.1% vs 13.7%) and luminal B (Lum B) (44.9% vs 43.8%) intrinsic subtypes were enriched in ILC, while NST was more frequently basal (1.2% vs 22.4%) and HER2-enriched (19.8% vs 22.2%), all p<0.05. Within luminal BC, Lum B was more common than Lum A in both histologies, but Lum A was proportionally more frequent in ILC (ILC: 40.3% Lum A vs 59.7% Lum B; NST: 23.4% Lum A vs 76.6% Lum B), p<0.0001. Comparative multi-omic analysis focused on the 922 HR+/HER2- tumors (ILC n = 275; NST n = 647). Compared to NST, ILC had higher frequency of CDH1 (87.3% vs 6.1%), PIK3CA (52.7% vs 38.5%), FOXA1 (9.0% vs 3.4%), ERBB2 (7.1% vs 2.0%), ARID1A, and NF1 (both q < 0.05) mutations and TMB high (17.7% vs 9.9%), but lower frequency of TP53 (15.7% vs 33.3%), ESR1 (10.9% vs 18.1%) and GATA3 (2.3% vs 14.9%) mutations along with FGFR1 amplifications (15.3% vs 6.7%), all q<0.05. ILC had higher expression of androgen receptor (91.2% vs 83.5%, q<0.05) and higher MAPK activation score (-0.81 vs -1.19, q<0.05), consistent with a luminal, hormone-driven phenotype. NST tumors demonstrated enrichment of pathways involved in the cell cycle and metabolic activity, including E2F targets, G2M checkpoint, MYC targets, mTORC1 signaling, glycolysis, and unfolded protein response (NES: 1.5-2.7, FDR<0.25). ILC tumors had higher infiltration of B cells, dendritic cells, neutrophils, NK cells and M2 macrophages, but lower M1 macrophages, all q<0.05. ILC had differential expression of immune checkpoint genes (upregulation: CD274 (PD-L1), PDCD1 (PD-1), TNFSF14, CEACAM1, CD160, fold change (FC): 1.2-1.5; down: HAVCR2 (TIM-3): FC: 1.2), all q<0.05. Median OS (mOS) was similar between luminal ILC and NST (33.8 vs 35.4 months (mo); HR 1.0, 95% CI 0.91-1.3). No mOS difference was seen between Lum A ILC and NST (47.4 vs 50.5 mo; HR 1.0, 0.84-1.43), while Lum B ILC had worse mOS than NST (27.4 vs 35.3 mo; HR 1.3, 1.1-1.6). Conclusions: This study represents the largest cohort to date with multi-omic characterization of metastatic ILC, revealing distinct genomic, transcriptomic, and immune features compared to NST. These findings highlight the unique biology of ILC and may inform future subtype-specific therapeutic strategies. Citation Format: G. Nader-Marta, S. Kumar Deshmukh, K. Fanucci, P. Tarantino, S. Schnitt, A. Lee, S. Oesterreich, S. Wu, J. Xiu, P. Advani, M. Lustberg, N. Lin, S. Tolaney, E. Mayer, O. Metzger, G. Sledge Jr., R. Jeselsohn. The Genomic, Transcriptomic, and Immune Hallmarks of Metastatic Lobular Breast Cancer [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium 2025; 2025 Dec 9-12; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Clin Cancer Res 2026;32(4 Suppl):Abstract nr PD9-07.

PURPOSE Long-term outcomes of patients with stage I human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)–positive breast cancer receiving adjuvant trastuzumab emtansine (T-DM1) remain undefined, and prognostic predictors represent an unmet need. METHODS In the ATEMPT phase II trial, patients with stage I centrally confirmed HER2-positive breast cancer were randomly assigned 3:1 to adjuvant T-DM1 for 1 year or paclitaxel plus trastuzumab (TH). Coprimary objectives were to compare the incidence of clinically relevant toxicities between arms and to evaluate invasive disease-free survival (iDFS) with T-DM1. Correlative analyses included the HER2DX genomic tool, multiomic evaluations of HER2 heterogeneity, and predictors of thrombocytopenia. RESULTS After a median follow-up of 5.8 years, 11 iDFS events were observed in the T-DM1 arm, consistent with a 5-year iDFS of 97.0% (95% CI, 95.2 to 98.7). At 5 years, the recurrence-free interval (RFI) was 98.3% (95% CI, 97.0 to 99.7), the overall survival was 97.8% (95% CI, 96.3 to 99.3), and the breast cancer-specific survival was 99.4% (95% CI, 98.6 to 100). Comparable iDFS was observed with T-DM1 irrespective of tumor size, hormone receptor status, centrally determined HER2 immunohistochemical score, and receipt of T-DM1 for more or less than 6 months. Although ATEMPT was not powered for this end point, the 5-year iDFS in the TH arm was 91.1%. Among patients with sufficient tissue for HER2DX testing (n = 187), 5-year outcomes significantly differed according to HER2DX risk score, with better RFI (98.1% v 81.8%, hazard ratio [HR], 0.10, P = .01) and iDFS (96.3% v 81.8%, HR, 0.20, P = .047) among patients with HER2DX low-risk versus high-risk tumors, respectively. CONCLUSION Adjuvant T-DM1 for 1 year leads to outstanding long-term outcomes for patients with stage I HER2-positive breast cancer. A high HER2DX risk score predicted a higher risk of recurrence in ATEMPT.

Abstract Background: Low levels of HER2 expression (HER2-low) have recently emerged as a therapeutic target in patients (pts) with breast cancer (BC). The aim of this study was to evaluate clinical and demographic variables associated with HER2 expression, as well as the value of HER2-low as a prognostic and predictive biomarker for palbociclib benefit in pts enrolled in the PALLAS trial. Methods: The phase III PALLAS trial investigated the addition of palbociclib to adjuvant endocrine therapy (ET) in pts with stage II-III hormone receptor-positive BC. The aims of this analysis are (1) to assess the association between the presence of low levels of HER2 expression with demographic and clinicopathological parameters, (2) to test the prognostic value of HER2-low status on invasive disease-free survival (IDFS), distant relapse-free survival (DRFS), and overall survival (OS) and (3) to assess the value of HER2 expression as a predictive biomarker of response to palbociclib. HER2-low was defined as HER2 immunohistochemistry (IHC) 1+ or IHC 2+ with negative in situ hybridization; all pathologic evaluation was performed locally. Pts with HER2-0 and Her2-low BC were included in this analysis; those with HER2-positive BC or missing HER2 status were excluded. Association of HER2 with other baseline covariates were tested with Chi-squared tests. Prognostic and predictive power of HER2 were assessed with Cox Models. Multivariable models included age, T-stage, N-stage, grade and progesterone receptor (PR) expression. Hazard ratios (HR) and 95% Confidence intervals (CI) are reported. Results: From the original PALLAS intention-to-treat population (N = 5,753), 5304 pts (92.2%) were included in this analysis. Among these, 2,254 pts (42.5%) were classified as HER2 IHC 0 (HER2-0) and 3,050 (57.5%) as HER2-low (1,838 with IHC 1+ and 1,212 with IHC 2+). For this analysis, median follow-up was 59.8 months. Compared to HER2-0, pts with HER2-low tumors had statistically higher estrogen receptor expression levels (mean expression 89.2% vs 88.2%, p = 0.019), lower PR expression levels (65.9% vs 68.2%, p = 0.007). Importantly, HER2-low status varied significantly across 21 participating countries (range 16.7% to 75.6%; p< 0.001) and was more frequent in pts enrolled in North America (63.1%) than in Europe (53.4%) and other regions (53.4%) (p < 0.001). No differences in HER2 expression were observed according to anatomic stage, T-stage, N-stage, histological grade, age, menopausal status, primary surgery type, prior radiation, prior chemotherapy, or baseline performance status. There were no statistically significant differences in IDFS, DRFS or OS according to HER2 status in univariate or multivariable Cox models (prognostic value, HR provided in the Table). There was no significant interaction between the HER2 status and the benefit to palbociclib in IDFS, DRFS or OS (Table). Similar results were obtained when HER2-0 was compared to HER2 1+ and HER2 2+ separately. Conclusions: In this large, prospective and international cohort, no differences were observed in clinical parameters, prognosis, or differential benefit from palbociclib (predictive value) between HER2-0 and HER2-low tumors. Significant geographic variability was observed in the prevalence of HER2-low status, suggesting a high degree of variation in pathologic assessment of HER2 expression without impact on outcomes. Support: AFT, Abbvie Pfizer; Clinicaltrials.gov: NCT02513394 https://acknowledgments.alliancefound.org Citation Format: Guilherme Nader-Marta, Christian F. Singer, Dominik Hlauschek, Angela DeMichele, Paolo Tarantino, Georg Pfeiler, Miguel Martín, Justin Balko, Zbigniew Nowecki, Marija Balic, Adam Brufsky, Arlene Chan, Patrick G. Morris, Tufia Haddad, Sibylle Loibl, Yuan Liu, Lidija Sölkner, Christian Fesl, Erica Mayer, Michael Gnant. Clinical characterization, prognostic and predictive values of HER2-low in early breast cancer in the PALLAS trial [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 2023 San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium; 2023 Dec 5-9; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2024;84(9 Suppl):Abstract nr PO1-01-13.

Abstract Background: The ATEMPT trial primary analysis found that one year of adjuvant trastuzumab emtansine (T-DM1) achieved a 3-year iDFS of 97.8% for patients with stage I HER2+ breast cancer, but was not associated with fewer clinically relevant toxicities (CRTs) compared with paclitaxel and trastuzumab (TH). In this end-of-study analysis, we report 5-year survival outcomes and correlative analyses from the trial. Methods: Patients with stage I centrally confirmed HER2+ breast cancer were randomly assigned 3:1 to adjuvant T-DM1 for one year or TH and received T-DM1 3.6 mg/kg IV every 3 weeks for 17 cycles or paclitaxel 80 mg/m2 IV with weekly trastuzumab IV followed by trastuzumab for 9 months. The co-primary objectives were to compare the incidence of CRTs between the 2 arms and to evaluate iDFS in patients receiving T-DM1. To investigate proteomic correlates of recurrence, spatial proteomic analyses were performed on samples from 13 patients experiencing iDFS events (cases) and 24 matched controls using the NanoString GeoMx Digital Spatial Profiler. The impact of HER2 heterogeneity on outcomes was investigated among 17 cases and 51 matched controls by fluorescence in-situ hybridization (FISH). HER2 genetic heterogeneity was assessed by scrutinizing the whole tumor area and defined as the occurrence of HER2 gene amplification in >5% but < 50% invasive tumor cells. The risk of recurrence was evaluated centrally with the HER2DX genomic assay from 225 primary tumor samples. Germline whole genome sequencing (WGS) was conducted among 55 patients experiencing T-DM1-induced thrombocytopenia and/or bleeding and 55 matched controls to identify genomic correlates for this side effect. Results: A total of 497 patients who initiated protocol therapy were included in this analysis (383 T-DM1 and 114 TH). After a median follow up 5.8 years, among patients receiving T-DM1 there were a total of 11 iDFS events, with 3 distant recurrences. The 5-year iDFS for T-DM1 was 97.0% (95% CI, 95.3-98.8%), the 5-year recurrence-free interval (RFI) was 98.6% (95% CI: 97.4-99.8%) and the 5-year overall survival (OS) for T-DM1 was 97.8 % (95% CI, 96.3-99.3%). Although the study was not powered to evaluate the efficacy of TH, among the 114 patients receiving TH, a total of 9 iDFS events were observed, including 2 distant events; the 5-year iDFS with TH was 91.3% (95% CI: 86.0-96.9%), 5-year RFI was 93.3% (95% CI: 88.6-98.2%) and 5-year OS was 97.9% (95% CI: 95.2-100%). A total of 56 samples were evaluable for heterogeneity analyses, among which 14% (n=8) harbored HER2 genetic heterogeneity. Spatial proteomic analyses found that NF1 (adjusted p=0.72 × 10-6) and CTLA-4 (adjusted p=0.15 × 10-3) were significantly upregulated in primary samples from cases, while cleaved caspase 9, CD25, GITR, ICOS, p53 and PD-L2 were significantly upregulated in controls (all with adjusted p< 0.05). Germline WGS found that the top gene associations with thrombocytopenia and thrombocytopenia or bleeding were ALMS1 (p=0,19 × 10-3) and APBA3 (p=0,23 × 10-3), respectively, although none reaching the threshold for genome wide significance. rs62143195 and rs114169776 were the top single nucleotide polymorphisms associated with thrombocytopenia and thrombocytopenia or bleeding, respectively. Data on the impact of HER2 heterogeneity and of HER2DX score on survival outcomes will be presented. Conclusion: With longer follow-up, adjuvant T-DM1 confirmed outstanding long-term outcomes among patients with stage I HER2+ breast cancer, demonstrating a 5-year RFI of 98.6%. Spatial proteomic analyses identified a potential association between NF1 and CTLA-4 expression with recurrence. Details on the impact of HER2 heterogeneity and HER2DX assay on prognosis will be presented. Citation Format: Paolo Tarantino, Nabihah Tayob, Chau T Dang, Denise Yardley, Steven J. Isakoff, Vicente Valero, Meredith Faggen, Therese Mulvey, Ron Bose, Douglas Weckstein, Antonio C. Wolff, Katherine Reeder-Hayes, Hope Rugo, Bhuvaneswari Ramaswamy, Dan Zuckerman, Lowell Hart, Vijayakrishna K. Gadi, Michael Constantine, Kit Cheng, Audrey Merrill Garrett, Paul K. Marcom, Kathy S. Albain, Patricia DeFusco, Nadine Tung, Blair Ardman, Rita Nanda, Rachel C. Jankowitz, Mothaffar Rimawi, Vandana Abramson, Paula R. Pohlmann, Catherine Van Poznak, Andres Forero-Torres, Minetta C. Liu, Kathryn Ruddy, Yue Zheng, Romualdo Barroso-Sousa, Adrienne Waks, Michelle K. DeMeo, Molly K. DiLullo, Giuseppe Curigliano, Harold Burstein, Ann Partridge, Eric Winer, Giuseppe Viale, Winnie Hui, Elizabeth A. Mittendorf, Bryan P. Schneider, Aleix Prat, Ian Krop, Sara Tolaney. Adjuvant Trastuzumab Emtansine Versus Paclitaxel plus Trastuzumab for Stage I HER2+ Breast Cancer: 5-year results and correlative analyses from ATEMPT (TBCRC033) [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 2022 San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium; 2022 Dec 6-10; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2023;83(5 Suppl):Abstract nr PD18-01.