Singal, Amit

Cirrhosis remains a major global cause of morbidity and mortality, with rapidly evolving etiologic drivers. This review summarizes the contemporary global epidemiology of cirrhosis, highlighting regional patterns and major transitions in underlying causes to inform prevention and policy. In 2021, cirrhosis and chronic liver disease accounted for ~1.4 million deaths worldwide. Although age-standardized mortality rates have declined in many regions, the absolute burden continues to rise due to population growth and aging. Reductions in hepatitis B and C–related cirrhosis, driven by vaccination, screening, and antiviral therapy, have been offset by a growing contribution from steatotic liver disease. High–sociodemographic index (SDI) regions exhibit lower mortality but increasing prevalence, reflecting improved survival and expanding metabolic risk, whereas low- and lower-middle–SDI regions continue to experience high mortality. Addressing the global burden of cirrhosis will require sustained public health investment focused on viral hepatitis elimination, alcohol-associated harm reduction, metabolic risk management, and equitable access to early detection and care.

Abstract Background Gastrointestinal (GI) cancer remains a major global health challenge. This study provides updated 2022 estimates of GI cancer incidence and mortality worldwide, along with projections of incident cases and deaths through 2050 to inform cancer control strategies. Methods In this population‐based study, data from the GLOBOCAN 2022 database were used to examine incidence and deaths associated with GI cancer. By using global demographic projections, this study estimated the projected number of incident cases and deaths until the year 2050. Results By 2050, the global burden of GI cancer is projected to reach 9.06 million incident cases (+85%) and 6.42 million deaths (+93%) from 2022. Increases in incidence are projected for both females (+87%) and males (+83%), as are increases in mortality for both females (+97%) and males (+91%). Whereas the Western Pacific region will have the highest absolute burden, with 3.88 million new cases and 2.79 million deaths, the greatest relative increase is expected in Africa, with incidence and deaths rising by 157% and 160%, respectively. As measured by the Human Development Index (HDI), the steepest increases are projected in low (+151% incidence; +152% deaths) and medium (+112% incidence; +114% deaths) HDI countries. Overall, all GI cancer types are projected to increase, led by pancreatic cancer in incidence (+95%) and colorectal cancer in deaths (+103%). Conclusions GI cancer incidence and deaths are expected to nearly double by 2050, with increases across sexes, cancer types, and regions, especially in lower HDI countries.

ABSTRACT Introduction Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development in patients with metabolic dysfunction‐associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) is a growing health concern, but the underlying mechanisms are not fully understood. Epigenetic aging biomarkers, reflecting cellular and tissue aging, have been linked to various age‐related pathologies, but their association with MASLD‐HCC is unknown. We investigated associations between five epigenetic aging biomarkers and MASLD‐HCC risk. Methods We performed whole blood DNA methylation assay (Infinium 850k array) and calculated principal components‐based (PC) versions of HorvathAge, HannumAge, PhenoAge and GrimAge and the DunedinPACE aging rate. We further calculated relative age accelerations for PCHorvathAge, PCHannumAge, PCPhenoAge and PCGrimAge. The aging biomarkers were modelled as continuous variables and categorised into tertiles based on distributions among controls. Associations between each aging biomarker and MASLD‐HCC were examined using logistic regression, calculating odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs), adjusting for covariates. Results Data on 272 MASLD‐HCC cases and 316 cancer‐free MASLD controls recruited from six sites and matched on chronological age, sex and study site were analysed. Higher relative age accelerations of PCPhenoAge (OR T3 vs. T1 = 2.25, 95% CI: 1.45–3.50; OR continuous = 1.04, 95% CI: 1.02–1.07, p = 0.009), PCGrimAge (OR T3 vs. T1 = 3.97, 95% CI: 2.41–6.64; OR continuous = 1.16, 95% CI: 1.10–1.24, p = 8.76 × 10 −07 ) and DunedinPACE (OR T3 vs. T1 = 3.45, 95% CI: 2.17–5.55; OR continuous = 1.72, 95% CI: 1.43–2.10, p = 2.58 × 10 −08 ) were associated with MASLD‐HCC, but not PCHorvathAge or PCHannumAge. Conclusion Higher relative age accelerations of PCPhenoAge, PCGrimAge and DunedinPACE aging rate are associated with risk of MASLD‐HCC. These aging biomarkers could improve HCC risk assessment and facilitate risk stratification in patients with MASLD.

INTRODUCTION: Immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) have become the first-line treatment of unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The prognostic value of immune-related adverse events (irAEs) in these patients remains controversial. We aimed to investigate the association between irAEs and clinical outcomes in patients with HCC treated with ICIs. METHODS: We searched the PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, and Central Register of Controlled Trials databases for articles published from inception to June 2024, using keywords including ICI, HCC, and irAEs. Statistical analysis was performed with a random effects model. RESULTS: Of 3,028 studies, 24 (4,127 patients) met the criteria for inclusion. Atezolizumab plus bevacizumab was the most common treatment regimen (n = 10 studies). IrAEs were associated with an increased objective response rate (pooled relative ratio: 1.73; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.36–2.21, I 2 = 41%), a higher disease control rate (pooled relative ratio: 1.45; 95% CI: 1.21–1.74, I 2 = 74%), and longer progression-free survival (pooled hazard ratio [HR]: 0.66; 95% CI: 0.52–0.84, I 2 = 71%). There was a trend toward longer overall survival for patients with irAEs compared with those without (pooled HR: 0.84; 95% CI: 0.63–1.12, I 2 = 73%). Subgroup analysis indicated a survival benefit for patients with grade 1–2 irAEs (pooled HR: 0.50; 95% CI: 0.36–0.67, I 2 = 0%) and for those with endocrine irAEs (pooled HR: 0.63; 95% CI: 0.48–0.83, I 2 = 12%). DISCUSSION: The development of irAEs is associated with favorable clinical outcomes in HCC, including improved progression-free survival and higher objective response rate. Overall survival benefit was noted in patients with mild irAEs but not those with severe irAEs.

Backgrounds and Aims: HBV-related liver disease ranks as the seventh leading cause of mortality. Despite advances in prevention and treatment, global disparities in the burden of primary liver cancer (PLC) persist. We evaluate global trends in the prevalence, incidence, and death of HBV-related liver disease. Approach and Results: Data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 evaluated acute HBV infection, HBV-related cirrhosis, and HBV-related liver cancer prevalence, incidence, and death. In 2021, there were 7.30 million cases of acute HBV, 283.64 million cases of HBV-related cirrhosis, and 288,110 cases of HBV-related PLC. HBV-related PLC accounted for 39% of the global incidence of PLC; Western Pacific had the highest rates for HBV-related PLC, with an incidence of 5.24 and a death rate of 4.38 per 100,000 population. Between 2000 and 2021, age-standardized incidence, prevalence, and death rates from HBV-related liver disease decreased; however, the incidence of HBV-related PLC rose in 65 countries from 2000 to 2021. In parallel, age-standardized prevalent rates from HBV-related PLC increased in Europe (annual percent change: 0.77%, 95% CI: 0.72%–0.81%) and the Americas (annual percent change: 1.05%, 95% CI: 1.00%–1.10%). Conclusions: From 2000 to 2021, decreases in HBV-related liver disease incidence and prevalence were observed; however, more than one-third of countries showed an increase in the incidence of HBV-related PLC. These findings highlight the need for strengthened HBV treatment efforts to reduce the risk of liver cancer.

Background & Aims: Early-stage HCC can be treated with thermal ablation or stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT). We retrospectively compared local progression, mortality, and toxicity among patients with HCC treated with ablation or SBRT in a multicenter, US cohort. Approach & Results: We included adult patients with treatment-naïve HCC lesions without vascular invasion treated with thermal ablation or SBRT per individual physician or institutional preference from January 2012 to December 2018. Outcomes included local progression after a 3-month landmark period assessed at the lesion level and overall survival at the patient level. Inverse probability of treatment weighting was used to account for imbalances in treatment groups. The Cox proportional hazard modeling was used to compare progression and overall survival, and logistic regression was used for toxicity. There were 642 patients with 786 lesions (median size: 2.1 cm) treated with ablation or SBRT. In adjusted analyses, SBRT was associated with a reduced risk of local progression compared to ablation (aHR 0.30, 95% CI: 0.15–0.60). However, SBRT-treated patients had an increased risk of liver dysfunction at 3 months (absolute difference 5.5%, aOR 2.31, 95% CI: 1.13–4.73) and death (aHR 2.04, 95% CI: 1.44–2.88, p < 0.0001). Conclusions: In this multicenter study of patients with HCC, SBRT was associated with a lower risk of local progression compared to thermal ablation but higher all-cause mortality. Survival differences may be attributable to residual confounding, patient selection, or downstream treatments. These retrospective real-world data help guide treatment decisions while demonstrating the need for a prospective clinical trial.

Background: The effectiveness of ultrasound-based surveillance for HCC in patients with cirrhosis is limited by suboptimal sensitivity for early tumor detection and poor adherence. Emerging blood-based biomarkers have been proposed as an alternative surveillance strategy. We aimed to evaluate the comparative effectiveness of a multitarget HCC blood test (mt-HBT)—with and without improved adherence—against ultrasound-based HCC surveillance. Methods: We developed a Markov-based mathematical model that simulated a virtual trial in patients with compensated cirrhosis comparing potential surveillance strategies: biannual surveillance using ultrasound, ultrasound plus AFP, and mt-HBT with or without improved adherence (+10% increase). We used published data to inform underlying liver disease progression rates, HCC tumor growth patterns, performance characteristics of surveillance modalities, and efficacy of treatments. Primary outcomes of interest were the number of early-stage HCCs detected and life years gained. Results: Per 100,000 patients with cirrhosis, mt-HBT detected 1680 more early-stage HCCs than ultrasound alone and 350 more early-stage HCCs than ultrasound + AFP, yielding an additional 5720 and 1000 life years, respectively. mt-HBT with improved adherence detected 2200 more early-stage HCCs than ultrasound and 880 more early-stage HCCs than ultrasound + AFP, yielding an additional 8140 and 3420 life years, respectively. The number of screening tests needed to detect one HCC case was 139 with ultrasound, 122 with ultrasound + AFP, 119 with mt-HBT, and 124 with mt-HBT with improved adherence. Conclusions: mt-HBT is a promising alternative to ultrasound-based HCC surveillance, particularly given anticipated improved adherence with blood-based biomarkers could increase HCC surveillance effectiveness.

Abstract Suboptimal adherence to guidelines for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surveillance among high‐risk patients is a persistent problem with substantial detriment to patient outcomes. While patients cite cost as a barrier to surveillance receipt, the financial burden they experience due to surveillance has not been examined. We conducted a retrospective administrative claims study to assess HCC surveillance use and associated costs in a US cohort of insured patients without cirrhosis but with hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection, monitored in routine clinical practice. Of 6831 patients (1122 on antiviral treatment, 5709 untreated), only 39.3% and 51.3% had received any abdominal imaging after 6 and 12 months, respectively, and patients were up to date with HCC surveillance guidelines for only 28% of the follow‐up time. Completion of surveillance was substantially higher at 6 and 12 months among treated patients (51.7% and 69.6%, respectively) compared with untreated patients (36.9% and 47.6%, respectively) ( p < 0.001). In adjusted models, treated patients were more likely than untreated patients to receive surveillance (hazard ratio [HR] 1.75, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.53–2.01, p < 0.001), and the proportion of those up to date with surveillance was 9.7% higher (95% CI 6.26–13.07, p < 0.001). Mean total and patient‐paid daily surveillance‐related costs ranged from $99 (ultrasound) to $334 (magnetic resonance imaging), and mean annual patient costs due to lost productivity for surveillance‐related outpatient visits ranged from $93 (using the federal minimum wage) to $321 (using the Bureau of Labor Statistics wage). Conclusion : Use of current HCC surveillance strategies was low across patients with HBV infection, and surveillance was associated with substantial patient financial burden. These data highlight an urgent need for accessible and easy‐to‐implement surveillance strategies with sufficient sensitivity and specificity for early HCC detection.