Wallace, Michael

Abstract Background Gastrointestinal (GI) cancer remains a major global health challenge. This study provides updated 2022 estimates of GI cancer incidence and mortality worldwide, along with projections of incident cases and deaths through 2050 to inform cancer control strategies. Methods In this population‐based study, data from the GLOBOCAN 2022 database were used to examine incidence and deaths associated with GI cancer. By using global demographic projections, this study estimated the projected number of incident cases and deaths until the year 2050. Results By 2050, the global burden of GI cancer is projected to reach 9.06 million incident cases (+85%) and 6.42 million deaths (+93%) from 2022. Increases in incidence are projected for both females (+87%) and males (+83%), as are increases in mortality for both females (+97%) and males (+91%). Whereas the Western Pacific region will have the highest absolute burden, with 3.88 million new cases and 2.79 million deaths, the greatest relative increase is expected in Africa, with incidence and deaths rising by 157% and 160%, respectively. As measured by the Human Development Index (HDI), the steepest increases are projected in low (+151% incidence; +152% deaths) and medium (+112% incidence; +114% deaths) HDI countries. Overall, all GI cancer types are projected to increase, led by pancreatic cancer in incidence (+95%) and colorectal cancer in deaths (+103%). Conclusions GI cancer incidence and deaths are expected to nearly double by 2050, with increases across sexes, cancer types, and regions, especially in lower HDI countries.

INTRODUCTION: A deeper understanding of the factors influencing survival in patients with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is essential for optimizing treatment strategies. This study investigates the independent association of body composition parameters with overall survival in patients with PDAC. METHODS: This retrospective multisite cohort study included patients diagnosed with PDAC. Diagnostic computed tomography scans were retrieved, and body composition was evaluated using a validated deep learning-based segmentation algorithm that measured tissue volume and density in a 20 cm vertical abdominal section. RESULTS: A total of 1,666 patients with PDAC were included, 938 male (56.3%) and median age 69 years (interquartile range 61–76). In the subgroup of patients who underwent surgical resection (n = 509), myosteatosis (intramuscular infiltration of adipose tissue; hazard ratio [HR] 1.56, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.16–2.11, P = 0.004), sarcopenic obesity (HR 1.75, 95% CI 1.06–2.91, P = 0.03), and less subcutaneous adipose tissue (HR 1.09, 95% CI 1.03–1.16, P = 0.002) were associated with higher mortality. In patients receiving palliative systemic therapy (n = 439), lower skeletal muscle density (HR 1.43, 95% CI 1.03–1.99, P = 0.03) was associated with higher mortality. In patients who did not undergo tumor-targeted treatment (n = 718), less visceral adipose tissue (HR 1.04, 95% CI 1.01–1.08, P = 0.02) was associated with higher mortality. DISCUSSION: Body composition parameters, derived from computed tomography scans at the time of PDAC diagnosis, particularly low skeletal muscle density, sarcopenic obesity, and low adipose tissue, are independently associated with overall survival in patients with PDAC. Evaluating body composition at diagnosis could enhance clinical decision-making and enable more personalized treatment strategies.