Cash, David M.

AbstractINTRODUCTIONAs the number of biomarkers used to study Alzheimer's disease (AD) continues to increase, it is important to understand the utility of any given biomarker, as well as what additional information a biomarker provides when compared to others.METHODSWe used hierarchical clustering to group 19 cross‐sectional biomarkers in autosomal dominant AD. Feature selection identified biomarkers that were the strongest predictors of mutation status and estimated years from symptom onset (EYO). Biomarkers identified included clinical assessments, neuroimaging, cerebrospinal fluid amyloid, and tau, and emerging biomarkers of neuronal integrity and inflammation.RESULTSThree primary clusters were identified: neurodegeneration, amyloid/tau, and emerging biomarkers. Feature selection identified amyloid and tau measures as the primary predictors of mutation status and EYO. Emerging biomarkers of neuronal integrity and inflammation were relatively weak predictors.DISCUSSIONThese results provide novel insight into our understanding of the relationships among biomarkers and the staging of biomarkers based on disease progression.

AbstractBackgroundClinical trials are underway to treat familial frontotemporal lobar degeneration (f‐FTLD). This is a rare disease, and a limited number of mutation carriers have been identified; thus, efficient trial design is critical. Multimodal, latent disease progression models (DPM) can estimate time to symptom onset and define the temporal ordering of biomarker changes. DPMs can also be leveraged to select endpoints and potentially supplement analyses by integrating historical data. Recent draft FDA guidance for gene therapy trials in neurological disease supports these novel approaches to clinical trials.MethodParticipants included 1,049 members of families affected by f‐FTLD, due to mutations in GRN, MAPT, or C9orf72 genes, who were enrolled in ALLFTD or GENFI. A Bayesian repeated measures model incorporated multimodal data to estimate disease progression, conditional on latent disease age (proximity to symptom onset), in 677 mutations carriers (GRN (n=233), MAPT (n=151) and C9orf72 (n=293)). Family members without pathogenic mutations were used as the reference group. Mean follow‐up was 1.1 (SD=1.1) years. Jointly modeled longitudinal variables included neuropsychological scores, CDR®+NACC‐FTLD Box Score, MRI volumes of brain regions affected by f‐FTLD, and plasma levels of neurofilament light chain (NfL).ResultDisease progression curves were similar across ALLFTD and GENFI cohorts. Plasma NfL elevations occurred earliest, up to 10 years before symptom onset, and NfL was the most powerful endpoint in the asymptomatic stage. MRI abnormalities occurred next, closer to symptom onset. The earliest MRI changes relative to symptom onset were observed in C9orf72+. GRN mutation carriers showed the most rapid acceleration in all biomarkers, and this acceleration occurred in close proximity to symptom onset. Neuropsychological measures and CDR®+NACC‐FTLD Box Score were among the most promising endpoints in the symptomatic stage. Trial simulations indicated that using latent disease age as an enrollment criterion would allow some asymptomatic mutation carriers to be enrolled without sacrificing power.ConclusionSimilarity in disease progression across ALLFTD and GENFI participants suggests these models will apply to international trials. Model‐derived estimates of disease progression curves indicate that endpoint selection should be specific to disease stage and mutation, and DPMs would facilitate greater participant enrollment.

Abstract Introduction Asymptomatic and mildly symptomatic dominantly inherited Alzheimer's disease mutation carriers (DIAD‐MC) are ideal candidates for preventative treatment trials aimed at delaying or preventing dementia onset. Brain atrophy is an early feature of DIAD‐MC and could help predict risk for dementia during trial enrollment. Methods We created a dementia risk score by entering standardized gray‐matter volumes from 231 DIAD‐MC into a logistic regression to classify participants with and without dementia. The score's predictive utility was assessed using Cox models and receiver operating curves on a separate group of 65 DIAD‐MC followed longitudinally. Results Our risk score separated asymptomatic versus demented DIAD‐MC with 96.4% (standard error = 0.02) and predicted conversion to dementia at next visit (hazard ratio = 1.32, 95% confidence interval [CI: 1.15, 1.49]) and within 2 years (area under the curve = 90.3%, 95% CI [82.3%–98.2%]) and improved prediction beyond established methods based on familial age of onset. Discussion Individualized risk scores based on brain atrophy could be useful for establishing enrollment criteria and stratifying DIAD‐MC participants for prevention trials.

AbstractIntroductionMachine learning models were used to discover novel disease trajectories for autosomal dominant Alzheimer's disease.MethodsLongitudinal structural magnetic resonance imaging, amyloid positron emission tomography (PET), and fluorodeoxyglucose PET were acquired in 131 mutation carriers and 74 non‐carriers from the Dominantly Inherited Alzheimer Network; the groups were matched for age, education, sex, and apolipoprotein ε4 (APOE ε4). A deep neural network was trained to predict disease progression for each modality. Relief algorithms identified the strongest predictors of mutation status.ResultsThe Relief algorithm identified the caudate, cingulate, and precuneus as the strongest predictors among all modalities. The model yielded accurate results for predicting future Pittsburgh compound B (R2 = 0.95), fluorodeoxyglucose (R2 = 0.93), and atrophy (R2 = 0.95) in mutation carriers compared to non‐carriers.DiscussionResults suggest a sigmoidal trajectory for amyloid, a biphasic response for metabolism, and a gradual decrease in volume, with disease progression primarily in subcortical, middle frontal, and posterior parietal regions.

Abstract Structural grey matter covariance networks provide an individual quantification of morphological patterns in the brain. The network integrity is disrupted in sporadic Alzheimer’s disease, and network properties show associations with the level of amyloid pathology and cognitive decline. Therefore, these network properties might be disease progression markers. However, it remains unclear when and how grey matter network integrity changes with disease progression. We investigated these questions in autosomal dominant Alzheimer’s disease mutation carriers, whose conserved age at dementia onset allows individual staging based upon their estimated years to symptom onset. From the Dominantly Inherited Alzheimer Network observational cohort, we selected T1-weighted MRI scans from 269 mutation carriers and 170 non-carriers (mean age 38 ± 15 years, mean estimated years to symptom onset −9 ± 11), of whom 237 had longitudinal scans with a mean follow-up of 3.0 years. Single-subject grey matter networks were extracted, and we calculated for each individual the network properties which describe the network topology, including the size, clustering, path length and small worldness. We determined at which time point mutation carriers and non-carriers diverged for global and regional grey matter network metrics, both cross-sectionally and for rate of change over time. Based on cross-sectional data, the earliest difference was observed in normalized path length, which was decreased for mutation carriers in the precuneus area at 13 years and on a global level 12 years before estimated symptom onset. Based on longitudinal data, we found the earliest difference between groups on a global level 6 years before symptom onset, with a greater rate of decline of network size for mutation carriers. We further compared grey matter network small worldness with established biomarkers for Alzheimer disease (i.e. amyloid accumulation, cortical thickness, brain metabolism and cognitive function). We found that greater amyloid accumulation at baseline was associated with faster decline of small worldness over time, and decline in grey matter network measures over time was accompanied by decline in brain metabolism, cortical thinning and cognitive decline. In summary, network measures decline in autosomal dominant Alzheimer’s disease, which is alike sporadic Alzheimer’s disease, and the properties show decline over time prior to estimated symptom onset. These data suggest that single-subject networks properties obtained from structural MRI scans form an additional non-invasive tool for understanding the substrate of cognitive decline and measuring progression from preclinical to severe clinical stages of Alzheimer’s disease.

Abstract Genetic forms of frontotemporal dementia are most commonly due to mutations in three genes, C9orf72, GRN or MAPT, with presymptomatic carriers from families representing those at risk. While cerebral blood flow shows differences between frontotemporal dementia and other forms of dementia, there is limited evidence of its utility in presymptomatic stages of frontotemporal dementia. This study aimed to delineate the cerebral blood flow signature of presymptomatic, genetic frontotemporal dementia using a voxel-based approach. In the multicentre GENetic Frontotemporal dementia Initiative (GENFI) study, we investigated cross-sectional differences in arterial spin labelling MRI-based cerebral blood flow between presymptomatic C9orf72, GRN or MAPT mutation carriers (n = 107) and non-carriers (n = 113), using general linear mixed-effects models and voxel-based analyses. Cerebral blood flow within regions of interest derived from this model was then explored to identify differences between individual gene carrier groups and to estimate a timeframe for the expression of these differences. The voxel-based analysis revealed a significant inverse association between cerebral blood flow and the expected age of symptom onset in carriers, but not non-carriers. Regions included the bilateral insulae/orbitofrontal cortices, anterior cingulate/paracingulate gyri, and inferior parietal cortices, as well as the left middle temporal gyrus. For all bilateral regions, associations were greater on the right side. After correction for partial volume effects in a region of interest analysis, the results were found to be largely driven by the C9orf72 genetic subgroup. These cerebral blood flow differences first appeared approximately 12.5 years before the expected symptom onset determined on an individual basis. Cerebral blood flow was lower in presymptomatic mutation carriers closer to and beyond their expected age of symptom onset in key frontotemporal dementia signature regions. These results suggest that arterial spin labelling MRI may be a promising non-invasive imaging biomarker for the presymptomatic stages of genetic frontotemporal dementia.