Gnanamanickam, Emmanuel

Abstract Background: TP53-mutated myeloid neoplasms (MNs) represent one of the most lethal subgroups of blood cancers. The World Health Organization (WHO-5) recognize TP53-mutated (TP53mut) myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) and International Consensus Classification (ICC) recognize TP53mut MDS and acute myeloid leukaemia (AML) as distinct disease entities, acknowledging their dismal prognosis and the urgent need for novel therapeutic strategies. However, key discrepancies exist between the classifications, creating uncertainty in diagnosis, influencing therapeutic decisions, and complicating clinical trial enrolment for patients with uniformly poor survival. Importantly, neither classifications included TP53-mutated myelofibrosis (MF), other myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPN), and MDS/MPN overlap syndromes, despite growing evidence that these cases carry similar adverse outcomes. To address these critical gaps, we conducted a comprehensive analysis across the full spectrum of TP53-mutated MN. Methods: We included TP53mut cases with variant allele frequency (VAF ≥2%) of AML, MDS, MDS/MPN overlap, myelofibrosis and other MPN managed at the Mayo clinic (Rochester, USA) and Local Health Network in South Australia (Australia). Cases were classified according to the revised 4th edition WHO classification (WHO-4R). Biallelic TP53 loss was defined as: (i) ≥2 mutations with VAF ≥2%; (ii) single TP53mut with VAF ≥2% plus 17p loss on karyotype, FISH, or SNP array; or (iii) single TP53mut with VAF ≥50% with or without 17p loss. Monoallelic loss was defined as a single TP53mut with VAF <50% without 17p loss or copy neutral loss of heterozygosity. The primary endpoint was overall survival (OS) from diagnosis, censored at allogeneic transplantation. Conditional inference tree analysis was performed to define the effect of individual predictors on OS. Results: We identified 853 TP53mutMN cases including WHO-4R-defined AML (BM/PB blasts ≥20%, n=314; 36.8%), MDS with excess blasts-2 (EB-2; BM 10–19% or PB 5–19%, n=129; 15.1%), MDS-EB-1 (BM 5–9% or PB 2–4%, n=100; 11.7%), and MDS with low blasts (LB; BM <5% and PB <1%, n=228; 26.7%). MF included chronic phase (MF-CP, n=48; 5.6%), accelerated phase (MF-AP, n=7; 0.8%), and blast phase (MF-BP, n=17; 2.0%). Additional cases comprised other MPN-chronic phase (n=3, 0.4%) and MDS/MPN overlap syndromes (n=7, 0.8%). Of 848 evaluable TP53mut MN, 616 (72.6%) harbored biallelic TP53 loss and 232 (27.4%) had monoallelic loss, with 42.4% (n=98) of monoallelic cases harboring a complex karyotype (CK). Biallelic loss was highly prevalent in AML (83.1%), MDS (70.4%), and MDS/MPN overlap (71.4%), but was less frequent in cases with MPN (33.3%) and MF-chronic phase (25.0%). Across the spectrum, the frequency of biallelic loss increased stepwise with disease progression, rising from MDS-LB (62.8%) to MDS-EB1 (76.0%), MDS-EB2 (79.5%), AML (83.1%), and MF-AP/BP (79.2%) (P<0.0001). In multivariable analysis, WHO-4R category, TP53mut VAF, biallelic loss and CK were independent predictors of poor survival in TP53mut MN. Conditional inference tree analysis stratified the cohort into seven prognostic groups with distinct median OS: (1) AML, MF-BP/AP, and MDS/MPN overlap regardless of mono/biallelic and CK status (n=335, 39.7%; median OS 4.0 months); (2) MDS-EB1/EB2 with biallelic loss or monoallelic plus CK (n=212, 25.1%; 7.2 months); (3) MDS-LB, MF-CP and MPN with CK (n=156, 18.5%, OS 10.2 months); (4) biallelic MDS-LB (n=28, 3.3%; OS 15.6 months), (5) monoallelic MDS-EB1/EB2 without CK (n=20, 2.4%; OS 26.2 months), (6) monoallelic MDS-LB without CK (n=57, 6.7%; OS 33.4 months), and (7) MF-CP and other MPN without CK (n=36, 4.3%; OS 37.0 months). This analysis defines a clear stepwise risk gradient, identifying subsets with extremely poor prognosis versus a relatively indolent disease. Conclusions: This is the first study to evaluate the prognostic impact of TP53mut MN across the entire MN spectrum, providing a framework for future refinement of TP53-driven disease classification. Key findings include: (i) MF-AP/BP and MDS/MPN overlap exhibit survival outcomes as dismal as AML, irrespective of the TP53 allele status; and (ii) complex karyotype is a surrogate for “biallelic equivalent”, refining risk interpretation in monoallelic cases. Overall, our study defines seven prognostic subgroups spanning all TP53mut MN, offering a foundation for risk-adapted clinical trial design and future classification updates.

Abstract Introduction: The 5th edition of the World Health Organization (WHO-5) and the International Consensus Classification (ICC) recognize TP53-mutated myeloid neoplasms (MN) as a distinct disease category, reflecting their uniformly dismal outcomes and the urgent need for novel therapeutic strategies. However, both classifications do not include TP53-non-mutatedcases with 17p (TP53 locus) loss, despite emerging evidence that such lesions may confer biologic and clinical behaviour similar to TP53-mutated disease. Our preliminary work demonstrated that 17p loss without TP53 mutation in therapy-related MN (t-MN) is associated with poor survival, approximating that of TP53-mutated cases (Hiwase et al., Blood 2023). Yet, the true frequency and prognostic impact of 17p loss in TP53-non-mutatedMN remains largely undefined, representing a critical gap in current disease classification and risk stratification. To address this critical knowledge gap, we aim to define the frequency and prognostic impact of 17p loss across the TP53 locus in TP53-non-mutatedMN, including both myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) and acute myeloid leukemia (AML). Finally, we compared the survival outcomes of this cohort with those of TP53-mutated MN. Method This international collaborative study was designed to evaluate the frequency and prognostic significance of 17p loss in TP53-non-mutatedMN. We included MDS and AML patients who had conventional cytogenetic analysis and did not have TP53-mutation(TP53-non-mutated)by next-generation sequencing (NGS) with sensitivity of ≥2% variant allele frequency (VAF). These cases were systematically reviewed for 17p loss using karyotype data, and where available, fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) and SNP array were used to confirm the 17p/TP53 locus deletion. To assess the clinical impact, we compared the overall survival (OS) of TP53-non-mutatedcases with 17p loss against a reference cohort of TP53-mutated MNs with VAF ≥2% (n=603) (South Australian Myeloid Neoplasm Registry (SA-MN) and Mayo Clinic, Rochester, USA). Results We screened 8876 cases of TP53-non-mutatedMN cases across an international cohort comprising the SA-MN (Australia; n=1046), the Düsseldorf MDS Registry (Germany; n=545), Munich Leukaemia Laboratory (Germany; n=5785), and King's College Hospital, (United Kingdom; n=1500). We identified 85 (1%) cases with 17p loss across the TP53 locus, representing the largest international cohort to define the frequency of 17p loss in TP53-non-mutatedMN. Complex karyotype was present in 40% (n=34) of cases, frequently co-occurring with del(5q) and del(7q). Clinically, most cases were MDS (n=69; 81.2%), including MDS-IB1 (n=19), MDS-IB2 (n=15), MDS-LB (n=16), t-MDS (n=8), MDS/MPN overlap (n=3), CCUS (n=1), or unspecified MDS (n=7), while AML accounted for 16 cases (18.8%). Among evaluable cases, the majority were male (78.6%) and had a median age of 66.5 years at diagnosis. The most frequent cytogenetic abnormality causing 17p loss across the TP53 locus was monosomy 17 (39%), followed by i(17q) (29%), add (17p) (14%), derivative chromosome 17 from unbalanced translocations (11%), and del(17p) (7%). The majority represented de-novo MN (60%), with t-MN in 40% of cases. Median OS of evaluable 17p loss in TP53-non-mutatedcases (n=28; 10.2 months) was poor and comparable to TP53-mutated MN (n=603, 8.7 months; P=0.42). Similarly, survival censored for a stem cell transplant was also equally poor (10.4 vs. 8.7 months; P=0.34) in both groups. Complex vs. non-complex karyotype (7.7 vs. 10.7 months; P=0.68) did not significantly influence the OS of 17p loss. Median OS of MDS cases tended to be longer compared to AML (16.7 vs. 9.1 months; P=0.11), although not statistically significant. Conclusion: In this largest international study, 1% of TP53-non-mutatedMNs harbor 17p loss across the TP53 locus, displaying poor survival equivalent to TP53-mutated disease. Exclusive reliance on NGS to identify TP53 mutations misses these high-risk structural TP53 abnormalities, which are readily detectable by conventional karyotyping. These findings provide compelling evidence to include TP53-non-mutatedcases with 17p loss in the next revision of the classifications, enabling accurate prognostication and equitable access to curative and clinical trials of novel therapies.