Betz, Beate

Myelodysplastic syndromes with isolated deletion of chromosome 5q [MDS-del(5q)] constitute a distinct biological entity traditionally associated with favorable outcomes, although up to one quarter of patients progress to acute myeloid leukemia (AML). Existing prognostic models, developed in heterogeneous MDS populations, may not adequately capture risk within this subgroup. We assembled an international cohort of 682 patients with MDS-del(5q) to evaluate the performance of the IPSS-R and IPSS-M, identify prognostic variables, and develop a disease-specific prognostic tool, the IPSS-del(5q). Most patients were classified as lower-risk by IPSS-R (94.4%) and IPSS-M (85.5%), yet both systems showed limited discriminatory ability (C-indices ≈0.5). Independent adverse prognostic factors included age ≥70 years, male sex, anemia (hemoglobin ≤10 g/dL), thrombocytopenia (platelets ≤100×10⁹/L), the presence of one additional chromosomal abnormality, ≥2 gene mutations, SF3B1 mutations, and high-risk TP53 status. Six variables were included in the IPSS-del(5q), stratifying patients into standard-risk (74.3%) and high-risk (25.7%) groups with significantly different LFS (69.2 vs. 32.0 months; p<0.01). Moreover, this model reclassified 19.1% of lower-risk IPSS-R and 14.6% of lower-risk IPSS-M patients into the high-risk IPSS-del(5q) group. However, its discriminative power remained modest, with a C-index of 0.60. Overall, this study provides the most comprehensive prognostic evaluation of MDS-del(5q) to date, demonstrates the limited discriminatory capacity of existing MDS scores in this entity, and underscores the need to develop refined disease-specific prognostic approaches for this MDS subtype.

Abstract Background & aim: Myelodysplastic syndromes with isolated deletion of chromosome 5q (MDS-del(5q)) are associated with low-risk features and favorable prognosis. In contrast, TP53 multihit alterations, typically reflecting biallelic inactivation, are associated with high-risk features and adverse outcomes across MDS subtypes. Although current classification systems exclude MDS-del(5q) cases with TP53 multihit from low-risk categories, the prognostic significance of these alterations in this specific context remains unclear. Methods: We conducted an international, multicenter, retrospective study comparing MDS-del(5q) per 2017 WHO criteria with TP53 multihit alterations (MDS-del(5q) TP53 multihit) from 21 international institutions, to MDS with low blast counts with TP53 multihit alterations without isolated del(5q) (MDS-LB TP53 multihit) from the public data from the study of Bernard et al., Nat Med 2020. Clinical and biological data were collected at diagnosis. Genetic profiling included G-banding and NGS of myeloid genes. TP53 multihit was defined as >1 TP53 mutation or a single mutation with 17p deletion, copy-neutral loss of heterozygosity (LOH), or variant allele frequency (VAF) ≥50%. Patients were stratified as lower- or higher-risk based on IPSS-R and IPSS-M scores. Lower-risk included those with IPSS-R ≤3.5 points or very-low, low, or moderate-low IPSS-M, while higher-risk included those with IPSS-R >3.5 points or moderate-high, high, or very-high IPSS-M. Clinical, molecular features, overall survival (OS), and AML progression were compared between MDS-del(5q) TP53 multihit and MDS-LB TP53 multihit groups. Finally, outcomes between patients with likely biallelic TP53 multihit status, defined as harboring a single TP53 mutation accompanied by a co-occurring deletion/LOH of 17p or a TP53 VAF ≥50%, versus those considered less likely to be biallelic, thus still classified as multihit, defined as having >1 TP53 mutation but a combined VAF <50%, were compared in both MDS-del(5q) and MDS-LB groups. Statistical analysis was performed using R (version 4.2.2). Results: We included 113 patients with a median follow-up of 81.1 months (95% CI 74.9–NR). A total of 45 (39.8%) were MDS-del(5q) TP53 multihit, and 68 (60.2%) MDS-LB TP53 multihit. Compared to MDS-LB TP53 multihit, patients with MDS-del(5q) TP53 multihit had significantly higher platelet counts (209 ×10⁹/L vs. 77 ×10⁹/L) and were more frequently classified as lower-risk by both IPSS-R (75.4% vs. 9.8%) and IPSS-M (90.2% vs. 24.6%). The median number of mutations per patient, excluding TP53, was 1 in both groups, and only SF3B1 mutations were significantly more frequent in the MDS-del(5q) TP53 multihit group compared to MDS-LB TP53 multihit (20.5% vs. 2.9%; p<0.01). Regarding survival, MDS-del(5q) TP53 multihit patients showed an improved OS compared to MDS-LB TP53 multihit (median OS of 57.0 months (95%CI, 43.0–112.0) vs 14.0 months (95%CI, 8.6–19.0); p<0.01). Moreover, while the risk of progression to AML at 48 months were comparable between groups (34.9% for MDS-del(5q) TP53 multihit and 33.0% for MDS-LB TP53 multihit; p=0.8), a significant difference was observed in the timing of AML progression: median time to AML evolution of 31.7 months (IQR 23.4–55.3) in the MDS-del(5q) TP53 multihit group and 7.2 months (IQR 4.1–12.9) in the MDS-LB TP53 multihit group (p<0.01). Notably, no significant differences in outcomes were found between TP53 multihit and most likely biallelic cases in both MDS-del(5q) and MDS-LB cohorts. The impact of complex karyotype (CK) in MDS-LB TP53 multihit was also explored. MDS-LB TP53 multihitwith CK showed a significantly worse OS compared to MDS-LB TP53 multihitwithout CK (median OS of 10.0 months (95% CI 7.5–17.0) vs 40.0 months (95% CI 14.0–NA); respectively; p<0.001. However, the incidence of AML and median time to AML evolution were comparable between both groups. Finally, OS between MDS-LB TP53 multihit patients without CK and the MDS-del(5q) TP53 multihit cohort was compared. Median OS was significantly shorter in the former group (median of 40 months) compared to the latter (median of 61 months) (p <0.01) Conclusions: These findings underscore that, in contrast to other TP53-multihit MDS subtypes, MDS-del(5q) with TP53 multihit alterations constitute a clinically distinct entity with better outcomes, thereby warranting reconsideration of its place in current classification systems.

Abstract Introduction: The 5th edition of the World Health Organization (WHO-5) and the International Consensus Classification (ICC) recognize TP53-mutated myeloid neoplasms (MN) as a distinct disease category, reflecting their uniformly dismal outcomes and the urgent need for novel therapeutic strategies. However, both classifications do not include TP53-non-mutatedcases with 17p (TP53 locus) loss, despite emerging evidence that such lesions may confer biologic and clinical behaviour similar to TP53-mutated disease. Our preliminary work demonstrated that 17p loss without TP53 mutation in therapy-related MN (t-MN) is associated with poor survival, approximating that of TP53-mutated cases (Hiwase et al., Blood 2023). Yet, the true frequency and prognostic impact of 17p loss in TP53-non-mutatedMN remains largely undefined, representing a critical gap in current disease classification and risk stratification. To address this critical knowledge gap, we aim to define the frequency and prognostic impact of 17p loss across the TP53 locus in TP53-non-mutatedMN, including both myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) and acute myeloid leukemia (AML). Finally, we compared the survival outcomes of this cohort with those of TP53-mutated MN. Method This international collaborative study was designed to evaluate the frequency and prognostic significance of 17p loss in TP53-non-mutatedMN. We included MDS and AML patients who had conventional cytogenetic analysis and did not have TP53-mutation(TP53-non-mutated)by next-generation sequencing (NGS) with sensitivity of ≥2% variant allele frequency (VAF). These cases were systematically reviewed for 17p loss using karyotype data, and where available, fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) and SNP array were used to confirm the 17p/TP53 locus deletion. To assess the clinical impact, we compared the overall survival (OS) of TP53-non-mutatedcases with 17p loss against a reference cohort of TP53-mutated MNs with VAF ≥2% (n=603) (South Australian Myeloid Neoplasm Registry (SA-MN) and Mayo Clinic, Rochester, USA). Results We screened 8876 cases of TP53-non-mutatedMN cases across an international cohort comprising the SA-MN (Australia; n=1046), the Düsseldorf MDS Registry (Germany; n=545), Munich Leukaemia Laboratory (Germany; n=5785), and King's College Hospital, (United Kingdom; n=1500). We identified 85 (1%) cases with 17p loss across the TP53 locus, representing the largest international cohort to define the frequency of 17p loss in TP53-non-mutatedMN. Complex karyotype was present in 40% (n=34) of cases, frequently co-occurring with del(5q) and del(7q). Clinically, most cases were MDS (n=69; 81.2%), including MDS-IB1 (n=19), MDS-IB2 (n=15), MDS-LB (n=16), t-MDS (n=8), MDS/MPN overlap (n=3), CCUS (n=1), or unspecified MDS (n=7), while AML accounted for 16 cases (18.8%). Among evaluable cases, the majority were male (78.6%) and had a median age of 66.5 years at diagnosis. The most frequent cytogenetic abnormality causing 17p loss across the TP53 locus was monosomy 17 (39%), followed by i(17q) (29%), add (17p) (14%), derivative chromosome 17 from unbalanced translocations (11%), and del(17p) (7%). The majority represented de-novo MN (60%), with t-MN in 40% of cases. Median OS of evaluable 17p loss in TP53-non-mutatedcases (n=28; 10.2 months) was poor and comparable to TP53-mutated MN (n=603, 8.7 months; P=0.42). Similarly, survival censored for a stem cell transplant was also equally poor (10.4 vs. 8.7 months; P=0.34) in both groups. Complex vs. non-complex karyotype (7.7 vs. 10.7 months; P=0.68) did not significantly influence the OS of 17p loss. Median OS of MDS cases tended to be longer compared to AML (16.7 vs. 9.1 months; P=0.11), although not statistically significant. Conclusion: In this largest international study, 1% of TP53-non-mutatedMNs harbor 17p loss across the TP53 locus, displaying poor survival equivalent to TP53-mutated disease. Exclusive reliance on NGS to identify TP53 mutations misses these high-risk structural TP53 abnormalities, which are readily detectable by conventional karyotyping. These findings provide compelling evidence to include TP53-non-mutatedcases with 17p loss in the next revision of the classifications, enabling accurate prognostication and equitable access to curative and clinical trials of novel therapies.