Venugopal, Sangeetha

Myelodysplastic syndromes with isolated deletion of chromosome 5q [MDS-del(5q)] constitute a distinct biological entity traditionally associated with favorable outcomes, although up to one quarter of patients progress to acute myeloid leukemia (AML). Existing prognostic models, developed in heterogeneous MDS populations, may not adequately capture risk within this subgroup. We assembled an international cohort of 682 patients with MDS-del(5q) to evaluate the performance of the IPSS-R and IPSS-M, identify prognostic variables, and develop a disease-specific prognostic tool, the IPSS-del(5q). Most patients were classified as lower-risk by IPSS-R (94.4%) and IPSS-M (85.5%), yet both systems showed limited discriminatory ability (C-indices ≈0.5). Independent adverse prognostic factors included age ≥70 years, male sex, anemia (hemoglobin ≤10 g/dL), thrombocytopenia (platelets ≤100×10⁹/L), the presence of one additional chromosomal abnormality, ≥2 gene mutations, SF3B1 mutations, and high-risk TP53 status. Six variables were included in the IPSS-del(5q), stratifying patients into standard-risk (74.3%) and high-risk (25.7%) groups with significantly different LFS (69.2 vs. 32.0 months; p<0.01). Moreover, this model reclassified 19.1% of lower-risk IPSS-R and 14.6% of lower-risk IPSS-M patients into the high-risk IPSS-del(5q) group. However, its discriminative power remained modest, with a C-index of 0.60. Overall, this study provides the most comprehensive prognostic evaluation of MDS-del(5q) to date, demonstrates the limited discriminatory capacity of existing MDS scores in this entity, and underscores the need to develop refined disease-specific prognostic approaches for this MDS subtype.

Introduction TP53 alterations (TP53+) are seen in <5% of patients (pts) with chronic myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPNs) but are more common in accelerated/blast phase (MPN-AP/BP) [Luque Paz D, et al 2020]. While pts with low-burden TP53+ (Variant allele frequency (VAF) <5%) may remain stable for years [Kubesova et al, 2018]; biallelic loss of TP53 is thought to confer higher risk for progression [Li et al, 2022] and worse overall survival (OS) than non-TP53+ pts [Rolles et al, 2023]. However, TP53 abnormalities have not been incorporated into currently utilized molecular based prediction models (MIPSS or MIPSS70) or compared with currently validated high molecular-risk (HMR) mutations (mut). We report the outcomes of the largest cohort of TP53+ MPN pts to date in comparison with HMR mut, and identify a VAF cut-off associated with highest risk of progression to MPN-AP/BP. Methods We retrospectively reviewed 2583 MPN pts from Mount Sinai Hospital (MSH) and Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center (MSK) with at least one next generation sequencing (NGS) performed. Deidentified data from an additional cohort of 8 TP53+ MPN pts was received from University of Miami Sylvester Cancer Center (UMiami). Patient characteristics such as MPN subtype, gender, age at MPN diagnosis, driver mutation, thrombosis history were recorded. We also recorded date of transformation to MPN-AP/BP, dates of NGS testing, mutational and cytogenetic data, and survival status. We defined multi-hit TP53 as presence of =/>2 TP53mut, VAF > 50% or TP53 mutation + 17p deletion. Additional cohorts of pts with HMR mut (ASXL1, EZH2, IDH1/2, U2AF1, SRSF2 as per MIPSS70v.2) from MSH and non-TP53+ pts from the MPN-Research Consortium Tissue Bank were used as comparator arms. Patient characteristics were compared between TP53 single-hit and multi-hit using Chi-Sq test for categorical variables and Kruskal-Wallis test for continuous variables. Cumulative incidence function and Kaplan-Meier method were used to compare leukemic transformation and OS, respectively, between groups. Successive VAF levels with minimum groups of 25% of the total cohort were used to identify an optimal VAF cut-off. Results Of the 2583 MPN pts from MSH and MSK, 66 pts (2.6%) were found to have a TP53 mutation. Including 8 additional pts from UMiami, we analyzed a total of 74 TP53+ MPN pts; 40 single-hit and 34 multi-hit. Median age at MPN diagnosis was 61 years with a male predominance (60%). Distribution of driver mut was similar in single-hit vs multi-hit cohort with JAK2V617F being the most common (58%), whereas 11% of pts had triple negative disease . Thrombotic history was available for 45 TP53+ pts, with a high frequency of venous/arterial thrombosis (21/45 or 46.7%) in the TP53+ group as compared to 18.5% in the non-TP53+ MPN cohort (p= 0.0001). A significantly higher number of multi-hit TP53+ pts had a concurrent complex karyotype (79% vs 24% in single-hit; p<.001). MPN diagnosis at the time of detection of TP53+ was ET/PV (25.7%), MF (44.6%), MDS/MPN overlap syndrome (6.8%), MPN-U (2.7%) and MPN-AP/BP (20.3%), respectively. One or more genetic samples with TP53+ was available prior to transformation to MPN-AP/BP in 77% of pts (21/34 multi-hit; 36/40 single-hit) while a TP53+ was detected at the time of MPN-AP/BP diagnosis in the rest. Multi-hit TP53+ was associated with a significantly higher incidence of transformation to MPN-AP/BP as compared to single-hit; [65% vs 17.5%; HR=4.08 (1.71-9.71), p=0.0015]. Compared with HMR mut, multi-hit (HR=2.41; p=0.004) but not single-hit (HR=0.53; p=.277) TP53+ MPN pts were found to have a significantly increased risk of MPN-AP/BP transformation. One-year OS from the time of mutation detection was significantly inferior for both multi-hit (53.3%) and single-hit (75%) TP53+ pts as compared to HMR mut (98.8%, p=<.001). Cut-point analysis identified VAF >36% to be associated with the highest risk of transformation (HR=3.08) with lowest p-value (0.002). Conclusions Multi-hit TP53 alterations are associated with a significantly increased risk of leukemic evolution as compared to previously validated HMR mut, whereas both multi and single-hit TP53 mut are associated with worse OS highlighting the importance of TP53 in MPN disease progression.

Introduction: Myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) occur due to the acquisition of mutational events over time. Tobacco smoking is a risk factor for MDS and has been associated with distinct genetic mutations in solid cancers. We investigated the association between smoking intensity and duration and the number and types of genetic mutations in MDS using a large prospective cohort. Methods: The prospective NHLBI/NCI National MDS Natural History Study includes individuals with suspected or recently diagnosed MDS enrolled between June 2016-August 2023. Patient (Pt) bone marrow samples underwent central pathology review, resulting in diagnoses including MDS, MDS/myeloproliferative neoplasm overlap (MDS/MPN), or precursor conditions, such as clonal cytopenia of undetermined significance (CCUS). Self-reported smoking data were collected at enrollment. Smoking intensity (i.e., light, medium, and heavy) was defined per CDC definitions. Included mutations were those manually annotated to be pathogenic for MDS. Mutation frequency and prevalence, as well as associations with smoking history and other key covariates, were assessed using univariate tests of association and multivariable regression models for counts and proportions. Rates of disease progression were compared between groups using survival analysis methods for cumulative incidence incorporating non-disease death as a competing risk. Results: Of 1898 evaluable pts, 52% (N=979) had a history of cigarette smoking [MDS: 58% (252/436), MDS/MPN: 57% (52/91), CCUS: 57% (230/405)], and 18% still smoked at diagnosis. The mean ± SD cigarettes per day was 15.8 ± 12.5 and the mean ± SD smoking years was 29.8 ± 16.9 years. Compared to non-smokers, smokers were more often males (68% v 54%, p<0.001) in the 70-79 year age group (45% v 34%, p<0.001). Similar proportions of those with and without a smoking history had MDS (41% v 37%, respectively). Within MDS, there was no association between smoking and MDS prognostic risk per revised international prognostic scoring system. Compared to light smokers [1-10 pack-years (PY)], heavy smokers (30+ PY) were more often male (81% v 62%, p<0.001) and had higher rates of cardiovascular disease (38% v 20%, p<0.001). In univariate analyses, smokers and non-smokers had similar numbers of mutations (mean ± SD: 2.0 ± 2.7 in both groups). Pts with CCUS had the least number of mutations (1.5 ± 1.2), followed by MDS (2.3 ± 1.8), and MDS/MPN overlap (3.3 ± 1.8). Within disease groups, smokers and non-smokers had similar numbers of mutations. Mutation prevalence was higher among smokers v non-smokers in gene pathways for chromatin modification (15% v 11%, p<0.01) and RNA splicing (26% v 19%, p<0.001) and for individual genes ASXL1 (12% v 8%, p<0.01), SF3B1 (9% v 6%, p<0.05), U2AF1 (6% v 3%, p<0.05) and ZRSR2 (2% v 1%, p<0.05). In multivariable regression models, after adjustment for sex, age and disease group, smokers had significantly more mutations on average than non-smokers (2.0 v. 1.4, p=0.04). Moreover, the number of mutations increased significantly with PY smoked (p=0.006), and those at the 75th and 90th percentiles of PY had 1.8 and 3.5 times the number of mutations, respectively, compared to non-smokers, indicating a dose-response relationship. After adjustment, mutation prevalence increased with PY smoked in the gene pathways for chromatin modification and RNA splicing (p<0.03 for both) and for the genes ASXL1 and ETNK1 (p<0.05 in both cases). The five-year cumulative incidence of disease progression was significantly higher among long-term smokers compared to non-smokers/those with shorter smoking history (mean [95% CI] proportion progressed, 20+ years vs <20 years smoking: 27% [19%-36%] vs 18% [13%-24%], p < 0.05). Overall survival was significantly lower for smokers compared to non-smokers for CCUS pts [HR 1.91, 95% CI (1.03-3.55), p=0.04] but not for MDS [HR 1.21, 95% CI (0.53-1.30), p=0.41]. Conclusions: In this prospective, national cohort, tobacco smoking was associated with distinct genetic mutations related to MDS, suggesting smoking potentially contributes to its multi-step molecular pathogenesis. A dose-response relationship was also demonstrated, as was an association with progression and survival. Our data suggest that pts with a new MDS diagnosis who are also smokers should be counseled to stop smoking, as it appears to contribute to the acquisition of new genetic mutations that can lead to progression.