Rud, Danielle

Abstract Background: Chronic myelomonocytic leukemia (CMML) is a universally fatal adult myeloid neoplasm with a median survival of 32 months and no approved therapies that alter its natural history. Although most patients initially present asymptomatically, disease progression (DP) is inevitable and its biological triggers remain poorly understood. Anecdotes and small case series suggest that acute inflammatory events (AIE) may precipitate hyperleukocytosis and DP in some patients, but fragmented care in the U.S. has hindered large-scale retrospective analyses. To address this gap, we launched a prospective, multi-institutional observational study to systematically evaluate the relationship between AIEs and DP. Our aim is to identify modifiable, cell-extrinsic stressors that contribute to disease destabilization and inform strategies for prolonging the indolent phase of CMML. Methods: We enrolled patients with WHO-defined CMML in a clinically asymptomatic state, defined by: (1) MPN-SAF TSS <20, (2) no CMML-directed therapy, (3) no symptomatic splenomegaly, and (4) transfusion independence. Key exclusions included active malignancy, uncontrolled infection, or inability to attend monthly visits. Over 24 months, participants underwent monthly interviews to document AIEs, including flares of chronic illness e.g. gout, infections, surgery procedures, cardiovascular events, and trauma. AIE severity was graded by hospitalization status. Blood samples were collected at each visit, with bone marrow collected when clinically indicated. Cytokine profiling was performed using Olink Reveal assays, and genomic data were integrated to assess mutation-specific inflammatory patterns. DP was defined by worsening symptoms (MPN-SAF TSS ≥20 with ≥50% increase), new transfusion needs, therapy initiation, symptomatic splenomegaly, or transformation to CMML-2/AML. Descriptive statistics summarized baseline and AIE data. Progression-free (PFS) and overall survival (OS) were analyzed using Kaplan–Meier and Cox regression models. Results: A total of 102 patients were enrolled over 2 years, with a median follow-up of 1 year (range, 0.5–1.5). The median age was 72 years; 71 were male and 31 female. By FAB criteria, 38 had myeloproliferative-type CMML, and 8 met WHO 2022 criteria for CMML-2. CPSS-Mol risk distribution was: 49.0% low, 26.5% intermediate-1, 37.3% intermediate-2, and 3.99% high. A total of 260 AIE were recorded in 77 patients. The most common AIEs were surgical procedures (n=115 events in 53 patients), flares of chronic disease (n=99 in 38), and infections (n=87 in 47). DP occurred in 28 patients: 18 met symptom-defined criteria, 13 met disease-defined criteria, and 3 met both. Longitudinal labs showed significant post-AIE increases in WBC (6.29 → 7.73 ×10⁹/L, p = 0.02) and platelets (112 → 131 ×10⁹/L, p = 0.03), with no change in hemoglobin (p = 0.27). Progressors had significantly lower hemoglobin than non-progressors (11.6 vs. 12.7 g/dL, p = 0.037), with no differences in WBC or platelet counts (p > 0.5). Among those with DP, 25 of 28 had at least one AIE. AIE presence was significantly associated with DP (OR 3.76, p = 0.04). Flares of chronic disease conferred a threefold increased risk of DP (OR 3.37, p = 0.008) and remained an independent risk factor after adjusting for CPSS-Mol risk (OR 3.6, p = 0.009). Severe AIEs requiring hospitalization trended toward higher risk but were not statistically significant (OR 2.3, p = 0.09). Among the 44 patients with genomic data, all AIE-positive patients (29/29) harbored at least one epigenetic regulator mutations (TET2, DNMT3A, ASXL1, IDH1/2), compared to 12/15 AIE-negative patients (p = 0.034). Signaling mutations (JAK2, CBL, NRAS, KRAS) were also enriched in AIE-positive cases (11/29 vs. 1/15, p = 0.035). No significant differences were found in spliceosome or tumor suppressor mutations. No genomic features distinguished progressors from non-progressors, regardless of whether there was an AIE. Conclusion: In this interim analysis of a prospective multi-institutional CMML cohort, AIE were significantly associated with DP. Ongoing work is aimed at sequentially annotating genomic alterations and profiling secreted factors before and after AIEs. While this study continues to accrue and mature, these findings support inflammation as a modifiable driver to CMML biology and progression and lay the groundwork for future studies investigating inflammatory or supportive interventions to delay disease evolution.

Abstract Background: TP53-mutated myeloid neoplasms (MNs) represent one of the most lethal subgroups of blood cancers. The World Health Organization (WHO-5) recognize TP53-mutated (TP53mut) myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) and International Consensus Classification (ICC) recognize TP53mut MDS and acute myeloid leukaemia (AML) as distinct disease entities, acknowledging their dismal prognosis and the urgent need for novel therapeutic strategies. However, key discrepancies exist between the classifications, creating uncertainty in diagnosis, influencing therapeutic decisions, and complicating clinical trial enrolment for patients with uniformly poor survival. Importantly, neither classifications included TP53-mutated myelofibrosis (MF), other myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPN), and MDS/MPN overlap syndromes, despite growing evidence that these cases carry similar adverse outcomes. To address these critical gaps, we conducted a comprehensive analysis across the full spectrum of TP53-mutated MN. Methods: We included TP53mut cases with variant allele frequency (VAF ≥2%) of AML, MDS, MDS/MPN overlap, myelofibrosis and other MPN managed at the Mayo clinic (Rochester, USA) and Local Health Network in South Australia (Australia). Cases were classified according to the revised 4th edition WHO classification (WHO-4R). Biallelic TP53 loss was defined as: (i) ≥2 mutations with VAF ≥2%; (ii) single TP53mut with VAF ≥2% plus 17p loss on karyotype, FISH, or SNP array; or (iii) single TP53mut with VAF ≥50% with or without 17p loss. Monoallelic loss was defined as a single TP53mut with VAF <50% without 17p loss or copy neutral loss of heterozygosity. The primary endpoint was overall survival (OS) from diagnosis, censored at allogeneic transplantation. Conditional inference tree analysis was performed to define the effect of individual predictors on OS. Results: We identified 853 TP53mutMN cases including WHO-4R-defined AML (BM/PB blasts ≥20%, n=314; 36.8%), MDS with excess blasts-2 (EB-2; BM 10–19% or PB 5–19%, n=129; 15.1%), MDS-EB-1 (BM 5–9% or PB 2–4%, n=100; 11.7%), and MDS with low blasts (LB; BM <5% and PB <1%, n=228; 26.7%). MF included chronic phase (MF-CP, n=48; 5.6%), accelerated phase (MF-AP, n=7; 0.8%), and blast phase (MF-BP, n=17; 2.0%). Additional cases comprised other MPN-chronic phase (n=3, 0.4%) and MDS/MPN overlap syndromes (n=7, 0.8%). Of 848 evaluable TP53mut MN, 616 (72.6%) harbored biallelic TP53 loss and 232 (27.4%) had monoallelic loss, with 42.4% (n=98) of monoallelic cases harboring a complex karyotype (CK). Biallelic loss was highly prevalent in AML (83.1%), MDS (70.4%), and MDS/MPN overlap (71.4%), but was less frequent in cases with MPN (33.3%) and MF-chronic phase (25.0%). Across the spectrum, the frequency of biallelic loss increased stepwise with disease progression, rising from MDS-LB (62.8%) to MDS-EB1 (76.0%), MDS-EB2 (79.5%), AML (83.1%), and MF-AP/BP (79.2%) (P<0.0001). In multivariable analysis, WHO-4R category, TP53mut VAF, biallelic loss and CK were independent predictors of poor survival in TP53mut MN. Conditional inference tree analysis stratified the cohort into seven prognostic groups with distinct median OS: (1) AML, MF-BP/AP, and MDS/MPN overlap regardless of mono/biallelic and CK status (n=335, 39.7%; median OS 4.0 months); (2) MDS-EB1/EB2 with biallelic loss or monoallelic plus CK (n=212, 25.1%; 7.2 months); (3) MDS-LB, MF-CP and MPN with CK (n=156, 18.5%, OS 10.2 months); (4) biallelic MDS-LB (n=28, 3.3%; OS 15.6 months), (5) monoallelic MDS-EB1/EB2 without CK (n=20, 2.4%; OS 26.2 months), (6) monoallelic MDS-LB without CK (n=57, 6.7%; OS 33.4 months), and (7) MF-CP and other MPN without CK (n=36, 4.3%; OS 37.0 months). This analysis defines a clear stepwise risk gradient, identifying subsets with extremely poor prognosis versus a relatively indolent disease. Conclusions: This is the first study to evaluate the prognostic impact of TP53mut MN across the entire MN spectrum, providing a framework for future refinement of TP53-driven disease classification. Key findings include: (i) MF-AP/BP and MDS/MPN overlap exhibit survival outcomes as dismal as AML, irrespective of the TP53 allele status; and (ii) complex karyotype is a surrogate for “biallelic equivalent”, refining risk interpretation in monoallelic cases. Overall, our study defines seven prognostic subgroups spanning all TP53mut MN, offering a foundation for risk-adapted clinical trial design and future classification updates.

Abstract Allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplant (alloHCT) is considered for all patients with myeloid neoplasms (MNs) harboring TP53 mutations (TP53mut). The aim of this international study across 7 transplant centers in the United States and Australia was to identify factors associated with improved post-alloHCT survival. Of 134 TP53mut MN cases who underwent alloHCT, 80% harbored complex karyotype; 94% of TP53 variants were localized to the DNA-binding domain (DBD). Most common comutations were ASXL1 (7%), TET2 (7%), and DNMT3A (6%). Median post-HCT survival was 1.03 years, and overall survival (OS) at 1 year, 2 years, and 3 years was 51.4%, 35.1%, and 25.1%, respectively. A total of 103 cases (76.9%) met the International Consensus Classification (ICC) criteria for MN with mutated TP53 (referred to as ICC-defined TP53mut MN hereafter). The 3-year OS of ICC-defined TP53mut was significantly shorter compared with that of other TP53mut MNs (3-year OS, 16.9% vs 54.9%; P = .002). ICC-defined TP53mut MNs was independently associated with inferior OS (hazard ratio [HR], 2.62; P = .019). The presence of non-DBD TP53mut only (HR, 3.40; P = .005), DNMT3A comutation (HR, 2.64; P = .016), and pre-alloHCT bone marrow blasts ≥5% (HR, 2.76; P = .006) was independently associated with inferior relapse-free survival (RFS), whereas melphalan-based conditioning was associated with superior RFS (HR, 0.52; P = .005). Combining these variables, we constructed a hierarchical model that stratified patients into low-, intermediate-, and high-risk categories with 1-year RFS of 81.3%, 31.3%, and 6.7%, respectively (P < .001). In conclusion, a subset of MN harboring TP53mut who have low blasts pre-alloHCT and received melphalan-based conditioning derived long-term benefit from alloHCT.

Abstract This retrospective analysis aimed to provide evidence-based risk stratification of TP53-mutated (TP53mut) myeloid neoplasms (MNs). Of 580 MNs harboring TP53mut with variant allele frequency (VAF) ≥2%, 219 (37.8%), 194 (33.4%), 92 (15.9%), and 75 (12.9%) were classified as acute myeloid leukemia (AML), myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) with low blasts (MDS-LB), MDS with excess blasts (MDS-EB)-2, and -EB1 according to the revised fourth edition of the World Health Organization (WHO) classification, respectively. Hierarchical analysis identified the following 4 risk groups with distinct survival: (1) MDS-LB, (2) MDS-EB1/EB2/AML VAF <10%, (3) MDS-EB1/EB2 VAF ≥10%, and (4) AML VAF ≥10%. We next evaluated the impact of allelic status, VAF, and complex karyotype (CK). In our cohort, the significance of biallelic status was limited to MDS with <5% blasts and not for blasts 5% to 9%, as proposed by the International Consensus Classification (ICC), or 5% to 19%, as proposed by the fifth edition of the WHO (WHO-5). MDS-EB1 and -EB2 with VAF ≥10% had comparable survival (9.6 vs 7.2 months; P = .12), regardless of allelic status. Contrary to the ICC proposal, MDS-EB1/EB2 with VAF <10% and CK had poor survival compared with those without CK, comparable to MDS-EB1/EB2 with VAF ≥10% (5.6 vs 26.2 vs 6.3 months; P = .003). Survival of TP53mut AML was poor (median 3.9 months) regardless of allelic/CK status. Thus, using ICC or WHO-5 may underestimate prognosis of MDS with blasts 5% to 19% and 5% to 9%, respectively. Collectively, the hierarchical model acknowledges poor survival of 91.9% TP53mut MDS and AML compared with 36.5% and 80.7% by WHO-5 and ICC, respectively.

Background: TP53-mutated (TP53mut) myeloid neoplasms (MN) have particularly poor survival. Discrepancies in defining TP53mut MN have impact on diagnostic work up, therapeutic decisions, and clinical trial enrolment. Methods: MN cases harboring TP53mut (variant allele frequency, VAF ≥2%) were classified based on bone marrow (BM) and peripheral blood (PB) blast % using the 4th revision of the WHO classification (WHO-4R). Biallelic loss was defined as (i) ≥2 mutations each with VAF ≥2%; (ii) single TP53mut VAF ≥2% plus 17p loss detected on karyotype, FISH, or SNP; or (iii) single TP53mut VAF ≥50%, whereas monoallelic loss was defined as single TP53mut VAF <50% without 17p loss. Primary endpoint was overall survival (OS) from diagnosis. Conditional Inference Trees (CIT) analysis was used to determine the true effect of a predictor. Results: We identified 580 cases including WHO-4R defined acute myeloid leukemia (AML, BM/PB blasts ≥20%, n=219, 37.8%), myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) with excess blasts-2 (EB-2, BM 10-19% or PB 5%-19%, n=92, 15.9%), MDS with excess blasts-1 (EB-1, BM 5-9% or PB 2-4%, n=75, 12.9%), and the remaining were MDS with low blasts (-LB, BM <5% and PB ≤1%, n=194, 33.4%). Of the 578 cases evaluable for allelic status, 437 (75.6%) and 141 (24.4%) had biallelic and monoallelic TP53 loss, respectively. Higher frequency of biallelic loss was observed with increasing blasts. 63.2%, 73.3%, 78% and 86.3% of cases with MDS-LB, MDS-EB1, MDS-EB2, and AML had bi-allelic TP53 loss (P<0.0001). In a multivariable analysis, WHO-4R categories, VAF ≥10%, and biallelic loss were independent predictors of poor survival. CIT analysis further stratified the cohort into 4 groups with distinct survival: (1) MDS-LB (n=194, 33.4%); (2) MDS-EB1/EB2 and AML with VAF <10% (n=38, 6.6%); (3) MDS-EB1/EB2 with VAF ≥10% (n=149, 25.7%); and (4) AML with VAF ≥10% (n=199, 34.3%). MDS-LB cases could be further stratified based on allelic status and complex karyotype (CK): OS was poor for cases with biallelic TP53 loss and monoallelic TP53mut with CK compared to monoallelic TP53mut without CK, who had the most favorable survival (12.7 vs. 13 vs. 34.8 months, P<0.0001).MDS-EB1/EB2/AML with VAF<10% could also be stratified by CK: MDS-EB1/EB2/AML with VAF<10% cases without CK had the favorable survival compared to their counterparts with CK and MDS-EB1/EB2 with VAF ≥10% cases (26.2 vs. 5.6 vs. 6.3 months, P=0.003).MDS-EB1/EB2 with VAF ≥10% was a homogenous subgroup: Biological characteristics including the proportion of cases with biallelic TP53 loss, CK (P>0.9), monosomal karyotype (MK, P>0.9), del 5q (P=0.6), del 7q (P=0.4), and del 17p (P=0.2) were comparable between MDS-EB1 and -EB2 with VAF ≥10%. Importantly, median OS of MDS-EB1 and EB2 with VAF ≥10% was comparable (9.6 vs. 7.2 months, P=0.12). OS in this group was comparable regardless of the blast %, allelic status, or presence of CK.AML with VAF ≥10% had extremely poor survival: Median OS was 3.9 months. Survival of AML was equally poor irrespective of the mono- or biallelic (3.6 vs. 3.9, P=0.89) and non-CK vs. CK (1.8 vs. 3.9 months, P=0.09). Combined, our model would acknowledge poor survival of 514 (89.1%) cases. In contrast, retrospective application of the 5th edition of the WHO classification (WHO-5) and International Consensus Classification (ICC) would classify only 211 (36.4%) and 468 (80.7%) cases as biallelic/multi-hit TP53mut MN, respectively. Finally, the Harrell's c-index of the proposed model, WHO-5, and ICC was 0.66, 0.571, and 0.617, respectively. Conclusion: We provide evidence for subsequent refinements in classifying MN harboring TP53mut. Our salient findings include: (i) acknowledgement of CK as ‘biallelic equivalent’ in MDS-LB; as well as EB1/EB2/AML with VAF 2 to <10% cases; and (ii) demonstration of poor survival of MDS-EB1 and -EB2 with VAF ≥10% regardless of the allelic status. In conclusion, our proposed model acknowledged poor survival of a higher proportion of cases as TP53mut MN compared to the current models with a higher c- index.

BACKGROUND: Recent World Health Organization (WHO) classifications (5 th edition), International Consensus Classification (ICC) recognized TP53-mutated ( TP53mut) myeloid neoplasms (MNs) as a distinct subcategory, acknowledging their uniformly poor outcomes. However, there are critical differences between the two guidelines in how TP53 allelic status is assigned. Both WHO-5 and ICC acknowledged the poor outcome of multi-hit TP53mut but excluded single-hit TP53mut. These changes are driven by a pivotal study demonstrating favourable outcome of single-hit TP53mut, however this study predominantly included de novo myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) cases (Bernard et al. Nat Med 2020). In contrast, we previously reported poor outcome of TP53mut therapy-related myeloid neoplasm (t-MN) irrespective of the allelic status of TP53 (Hiwase et al Blood 2022andShah et al BCJ 2023). Finally, the ICC removed the subcategory of “therapy-related,” substituting it with diagnostic qualifiers instead. The WHO has grouped t-MN with secondary MN and renamed it as “myeloid neoplasm post cytotoxic therapy,” with the assertion that only multi-hit T P53mut MDS occurring post-cytotoxic therapy have poor outcome compared with single-hit. METHODS: We analyzed one of the largest international cohorts of TP53mut MN (n=544) with full characterization of TP53mut allele status utilizing uniform ICC criteria and similar large numbers of de novo and t-MN cases managed at Mayo Clinic Enterprise (USA) and South Australian MDS Registry, Adelaide (Australia) with clinical, integrated genomic profiling, and long-term follow-up. RESULTS: In our cohort of TP53mut MN (n=544), 475 (87.3%) MN had TP53mut variant allele frequency (VAF) of ≥10% and thus satisfied ICC criteria for TP53mut MN. Majority of TP53mut t-MN presented with MDS (bone marrow (BM) blasts 0-9%) compared de novo MN (62% vs. 48%; P=0.0012). While acute myeloid leukemia (AML) (BM blasts ≥20%) were more prevalent in TP53mutde novo MN compared to t-MN (38% vs. 24%; P= 0.001) and there was no difference in frequency of MDS/AML (BM blasts 10-19%) between the two cohorts (14% vs. 14%; P=0.8) ( Figure 1A). Majority of TP53mut were observed in the DNA-binding domain in t-MN and de novo MN (95% vs. 96.2%; P=0.48). However, mutations in Tetramer Domain were more frequent in t-MN (4.3% vs. 0.3%; P=0.002), whereas those in the TAD2 domain were more frequent in de novo TP53mut MN (2.4 vs. 0%; P =0.006). Integrating the mutation, conventional G-banding cytogenetic, copy number variation (CNV), FISH, and SNP array analysis, TP53mut MDS (BM blast 0-9%; n=260) were classified as multi-hit (n=179, 68.9%) or multi-equivalent (n=35, 13.5%) and single-hit (n=46, 17.7%) (Arber et al. Blood 2022). Striking enrichment of multi-hit/multi-hit equivalent was observed in TP53mut t-MDS compared to de novo MDS (91% vs. 72%; P<0.0001). While single-hit TP53mut were prevalent in de novo MDS compared to t-MDS (28% vs. 9%; P<0.0001). Importantly, median overall survival (OS) of single-hit was significantly longer than multi-hit de novo MDS (25.4 vs. 7.2 months; P=0.0002). In contrast to this we did not observe OS difference between single-hit and multi-hit TP53mut t-MDS (11.6 vs. 10.9 months; P =0.73) ( Figure 1B). CONCLUSION: Our study based on a large international cohort of T53mut MN provides compelling evidence that in contrast to de novo MDS, single hit TP53mut t-MDS is associated with poor outcome. Our data supports the consideration of single hit t-MDS as a multi-hit equivalent.