Gmeiner, Matthias

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Unruptured intracranial aneurysms (UIAs) are increasingly detected and require careful management to prevent rupture. No externally validated score currently predicts procedural risk to guide treatment decisions. We developed and validated 2 predictive scores for complications after endovascular treatment (EVT) or neurosurgical treatment (NT) of UIA using routinely collected clinical and aneurysmal features. METHODS: We conducted a multicenter retrospective study including patients with UIA treated with EVT or NT across 15 neurovascular centers (2014-2024). Predictive models were built using multivariable logistic regression, with variables derived from Delphi consensus. The primary outcome was a composite safety end point: new neurological deficits, modified Rankin Scale (mRS) worsening (≥1 point or mRS 2-5 within 30 days), or procedural death. Internal validation used bootstrapping, and external validation was performed temporally and institutionally. Model performance was assessed using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and calibration. Final scores, named Morbidity and Mortality Associated Risk in the Treatment of UIAs (MARTA)-EVT and MARTA-NT, were compared with existing models identified through systematic review. RESULTS: Among 2647 patients (1907 EVT and 740 NT), procedural complications occurred in 6.3% (EVT) and 12.8% (NT). Independent predictors included age, baseline mRS, aneurysm location, size, morphology, and procedural factors. MARTA-EVT (AUROC = 0.68, 95% CI = 0.57-0.78) and MARTA-NT (AUROC = 0.65, 95% CI = 0.54-0.77) showed moderate discrimination and good calibration. MARTA-EVT outperformed existing models; MARTA-NT performed similarly to SAFETEA. Predictive models are available open-source: https://martascoreapp.shinyapps.io/martascoreapp/. CONCLUSION: MARTA-EVT and MARTA-NT are validated tools for predicting procedural risks in UIA treatment and may support patient counseling and clinical decision making.

OBJECTIVE Objective values on procedural risk are essential to facilitate informed consent and optimize clinical decision-making in patients with unruptured intracranial aneurysms (UIAs). While robust heuristics, such as the PHASES (population, hypertension, age, size of aneurysm, earlier subarachnoid hemorrhage, and site of aneurysm) score, are established for predicting rupture risk, contemporary and granular benchmarks for procedural safety remain scarce. The multinational Prediction of Adverse Events After Microsurgery for Intracranial Unruptured Aneurysms (PRAEMIUM) study aims to comprehensively characterize contemporary adverse event rates following microsurgical treatment at high-volume expert centers, stratified by aneurysm location, morphology, and complexity factors to better inform individual risk/benefit analyses. METHODS A cohort study among 20 participating expert centers from 9 countries was established. Patients treated microsurgically for UIAs were included. The authors describe the epidemiology of treated patients and UIAs and a comprehensive adverse event profile using 3 outcomes measured at hospital discharge: 1) poor neurological outcome (modified Rankin Scale score ≥ 3), 2) new sensorimotor neurological deficits, and 3) all-cause adverse events (Clavien-Dindo grade ≥ 1). Subgroup reports were given for aneurysm location, morphology, and complexity factors (prior aneurysm treatment, calcifications, complex angioanatomy involving critical branch vessels or perforators, and thrombosis). The authors purposely chose discharge as the time point to capture early postoperative risks and complications in patients with asymptomatic UIAs, for whom preserving neurological function is paramount. RESULTS The cohort included 3705 patients (mean age 56 [SD 12] years, 28% male). Overall, at discharge 13.9% of patients (95% CI 12.8%–15.0%) had poor neurological functional outcomes, 14.4% (95% CI 13.3%–15.5%) had new sensorimotor deficits, and 24.1% (95% CI 22.8%–25.5%) experienced all-cause adverse events. Poor neurological outcomes ranged from 8.5% (M1 aneurysms) to 37.4% (posterior circulation aneurysms), neurological deficits from 9.3% (distal anterior cerebral artery [ACA] aneurysms) to 34.2% (posterior circulation aneurysms), and all-cause adverse events from 21.2% (distal ACA aneurysms) to 31.3% (posterior circulation aneurysms). Dissecting and fusiform aneurysms showed notably high rates of poor neurological outcomes (22.0%–33.3%), new deficits (25.4%–26.7%), and adverse events (26.7%–37.0%). Complexity factors significantly influenced outcomes, with prior treatment (22.9%, 19.7%, and 30.1%), calcification (16.3%, 18.1%, and 30.5%), complex angioanatomy (13.1%, 15.9%, and 26.9%), and thrombosis (19.6%, 23.9%, and 39.6%) notably increasing the risks for poor neurological outcomes, deficits, and adverse events, respectively. CONCLUSIONS This large international cohort provides contemporary benchmarks for microsurgical treatment of UIAs, emphasizing variability in outcomes based on aneurysm location, morphology, and complexity. The presented granular and quotable adverse event rates support informed patient counseling and individualized risk/benefit assessments in comparable high-volume centers.