Jakola, Asgeir Store

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Preventive treatment of unruptured intracranial aneurysms (UIAs) requires assessment of treatment risks vs expected benefit. Although established scores exist to estimate rupture and growth risk, currently, no externally validated tools exist to estimate the risks of microsurgical treatment of UIAs. Clinical prediction models based on machine learning enable generation of personalized risk estimates for each individual patient based on their specific patient and aneurysm characteristics. METHODS: Using data from 20 international centers from the prediction of adverse events after microsurgery for intracranial unruptured aneurysms study on patients treated microsurgically for UIAs, we developed and externally validated clinical prediction models for 3 outcomes measured at hospital discharge: poor neurological outcome (modified Rankin Score ≥3), new sensorimotor neurological deficits, and all-cause adverse events (Clavien-Dindo Grade ≥1). RESULTS: A total of 3705 patients were included. Data from 13 centers (2881, 78%) were used for model development. Fully trained models were evaluated on 824 patients (22%) from 7 additional centers. Average age was 56 ± 12 years, and 1049 (28%) were male. At discharge, poor neurological outcome was seen in 514 patients (14%). New sensorimotor deficits were observed in 534 patients (14%), and 894 patients (24%) experienced adverse events until discharge. At external validation, prediction of poor neurological outcome was achieved with good calibration and an area under the curve (AUC) = 0.70 (95% CI: 0.63-0.75). Similarly, new neurological deficits were predicted with good calibration and with an AUC = 0.69 (95% CI: 0.63-0.74). Prediction of all-cause adverse events only achieved an AUC = 0.59 (95% CI: 0.55-0.64) with fair calibration. The prediction model was integrated into a web application accessible at https://neurosurgery.shinyapps.io/PRAEMIUM/. CONCLUSION: The developed models for prediction of poor neurological outcome and new sensorimotor neurological deficits at discharge exhibit good calibration and fair discrimination based on a multinational external validation, indicating that the predicted probabilities correspond well to real-world risks and may thus be clinically useful in more objectively estimating the risk of microsurgical treatment.

OBJECTIVE Objective values on procedural risk are essential to facilitate informed consent and optimize clinical decision-making in patients with unruptured intracranial aneurysms (UIAs). While robust heuristics, such as the PHASES (population, hypertension, age, size of aneurysm, earlier subarachnoid hemorrhage, and site of aneurysm) score, are established for predicting rupture risk, contemporary and granular benchmarks for procedural safety remain scarce. The multinational Prediction of Adverse Events After Microsurgery for Intracranial Unruptured Aneurysms (PRAEMIUM) study aims to comprehensively characterize contemporary adverse event rates following microsurgical treatment at high-volume expert centers, stratified by aneurysm location, morphology, and complexity factors to better inform individual risk/benefit analyses. METHODS A cohort study among 20 participating expert centers from 9 countries was established. Patients treated microsurgically for UIAs were included. The authors describe the epidemiology of treated patients and UIAs and a comprehensive adverse event profile using 3 outcomes measured at hospital discharge: 1) poor neurological outcome (modified Rankin Scale score ≥ 3), 2) new sensorimotor neurological deficits, and 3) all-cause adverse events (Clavien-Dindo grade ≥ 1). Subgroup reports were given for aneurysm location, morphology, and complexity factors (prior aneurysm treatment, calcifications, complex angioanatomy involving critical branch vessels or perforators, and thrombosis). The authors purposely chose discharge as the time point to capture early postoperative risks and complications in patients with asymptomatic UIAs, for whom preserving neurological function is paramount. RESULTS The cohort included 3705 patients (mean age 56 [SD 12] years, 28% male). Overall, at discharge 13.9% of patients (95% CI 12.8%–15.0%) had poor neurological functional outcomes, 14.4% (95% CI 13.3%–15.5%) had new sensorimotor deficits, and 24.1% (95% CI 22.8%–25.5%) experienced all-cause adverse events. Poor neurological outcomes ranged from 8.5% (M1 aneurysms) to 37.4% (posterior circulation aneurysms), neurological deficits from 9.3% (distal anterior cerebral artery [ACA] aneurysms) to 34.2% (posterior circulation aneurysms), and all-cause adverse events from 21.2% (distal ACA aneurysms) to 31.3% (posterior circulation aneurysms). Dissecting and fusiform aneurysms showed notably high rates of poor neurological outcomes (22.0%–33.3%), new deficits (25.4%–26.7%), and adverse events (26.7%–37.0%). Complexity factors significantly influenced outcomes, with prior treatment (22.9%, 19.7%, and 30.1%), calcification (16.3%, 18.1%, and 30.5%), complex angioanatomy (13.1%, 15.9%, and 26.9%), and thrombosis (19.6%, 23.9%, and 39.6%) notably increasing the risks for poor neurological outcomes, deficits, and adverse events, respectively. CONCLUSIONS This large international cohort provides contemporary benchmarks for microsurgical treatment of UIAs, emphasizing variability in outcomes based on aneurysm location, morphology, and complexity. The presented granular and quotable adverse event rates support informed patient counseling and individualized risk/benefit assessments in comparable high-volume centers.

AbstractBackgroundAccurate and reliable clinical and radiological predictors of intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) outcomes are needed to optimize treatment of ICH. The aim of this study was to investigate functional outcome and identify predictors of severe disability or death following ICH.Materials and methodsRetrospective population‐based study of spontaneous ICH. Clinical and radiological data were obtained from electronic medical records, and functional outcome estimated using the modified Rankin Scale (mRS) before ICH and at 3 and 12 months after ICH.ResultsFour hundred and fifty‐two patients were included (mean age 74.8 years, 45.6% females). Proportion of fatal outcome at 1 week was 22.1%, at 3 months 39.2%, and at 12 months 44.9%. Median mRS score before the ICH was 1 (interquartile range [IQR] 2); for survivors at 3 months, it was 5 (IQR 3); and at 12 months, it was 3 (IQR 2). Independent predictors of severe disability (mRS of 5) or death (mRS of 6) were use of oral antithrombotic drugs (OR 2.2, 95% CI 1.3–3.8, p = 0.04), mRS score before the ICH (OR 1.8, 95% CI 1.4–2.2, p < 0.001), Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) on admission (OR 8.3, 95% CI 3.5–19.7, p < 0.001), hematoma volume >60 ml (OR 4.5, 05% CI 2.0–10.2, p < 0.001), and intraventricular hematoma extension (OR 1.8, 95% CI 0.8–4.2, p < 0.001).ConclusionIntracerebral hemorrhage is associated with high mortality, and more than one third of survivors end up with severe disability or death 3 months later. Predictors of severe disability or death were use of oral antithrombotic drugs, functional disability prior to ICH, low GCS on admission, larger hematoma volume, and intraventricular hematoma extension.