Murphy, Joseph G.

Background: With the rising cost of critical care and limited availability of critical care resources, improvements are need in the current cardiac intensive care unit (CICU) triage process. We sought to determine whether the Mayo Clinic Intensive Care Unit Admission Risk Score (M-CARS) could be used to predict which CICU patients will require critical care resources. Methods: Adult patients admitted to our CICU from 2007 to 2018 were retrospectively reviewed. The M-CARS was calculated using data from the time of admission. Groups were compared using Wilcoxon test for continuous variables and chi-squared test for categorical variables. Results: We included 12,428 patients with a mean age of 67 ± 15 years (37% females). The mean M-CARS was 2.1 ± 2.1, including 5,890 (47.4%) patients with M-CARS <2 and 644 (5.2%) patients with M-CARS >6. Critical care therapies were frequently used, including mechanical ventilation in 28.0%, vasoactive medications in 25.5%, dialysis in 4.8% and invasive lines in 44.3%. The low-risk cohort with M-CARS <2 was less likely to require invasive or noninvasive mechanical ventilation (8.0% vs. 46.1%), vasoactive medications (10.1% vs. 38.8%), dialysis (1.0% vs. 8.2%) or invasive lines (34.6% vs. 53.0%), as compared to patients with M-CARS ≥2 (all p<0.001). A higher M-CARS was associated with greater use of critical care therapies and longer CICU and hospital length of stay. Conclusions: In addition to predicting hospital mortality, the M-CARS predicts resource utilization during CICU admission and could be used in the triage of critically ill cardiac patients. Patients with M-CARS <2 infrequently require critical care resources and have extremely low mortality, yet account for nearly half of all CICU admissions, suggesting a potential to avoid CICU admission in many patients.

Background There are no risk scores designed specifically for mortality risk prediction in unselected cardiac intensive care unit ( CICU ) patients. We sought to develop a novel CICU ‐specific risk score for prediction of hospital mortality using variables available at the time of CICU admission. Methods and Results A database of CICU patients admitted from January 1, 2007 to April 30, 2018 was divided into derivation and validation cohorts. The top 7 predictors of hospital mortality were identified using stepwise backward regression, then used to develop the Mayo CICU Admission Risk Score (M‐ CARS ), with integer scores ranging from 0 to 10. Discrimination was assessed using area under the receiver‐operator curve analysis. Calibration was assessed using the Hosmer–Lemeshow statistic. The derivation cohort included 10 004 patients and the validation cohort included 2634 patients (mean age 67.6 years, 37.7% females). Hospital mortality was 9.2%. Predictor variables included in the M‐ CARS were cardiac arrest, shock, respiratory failure, Braden skin score, blood urea nitrogen, anion gap and red blood cell distribution width at the time of CICU admission. The M‐ CARS showed a graded relationship with hospital mortality (odds ratio 1.84 for each 1‐point increase in M‐ CARS , 95% CI 1.78–1.89). In the validation cohort, the M‐ CARS had an area under the receiver‐operator curve of 0.86 for hospital mortality, with good calibration ( P =0.21). The 47.1% of patients with M‐ CARS <2 had hospital mortality of 0.8%, and the 5.2% of patients with M‐ CARS >6 had hospital mortality of 51.6%. Conclusions Using 7 variables available at the time of CICU admission, the M‐ CARS can predict hospital mortality in unselected CICU patients with excellent discrimination.

Abstract BACKGROUND A decrease in diastolic blood pressure (DBP) with exercise is considered normal, but the significance of an increase in DBP has not been validated. Our aim was to determine the relationship of DBP increasing on a stress test regarding comorbidities and mortality. METHODS Our database was reviewed from 1993 to 2010 using the first stress test of a patient. Non-Minnesota residence, baseline cardiovascular (CV) disease, rest DBP &lt;60 or &gt;100 mm Hg, and age &lt;30 or ≥80 were exclusion criteria. DBP response was classified: normal if peak DBP–rest DBP &lt; 0, borderline 0–9, and abnormal ≥10 mm Hg. Mortality was determined from Mayo Clinic records and Minnesota Death Index. Logistic regression was used to determine the relationship of DBP response to the presence of comorbidities. Cox regression was used to determine total and CV mortality risk by DBP response. All analyses were adjusted for age, sex, and resting DBP. RESULTS Twenty thousand seven hundred sixty patients were included (51 ± 11 years, female n = 7,314). Rest/peak averaged DBP 82 ± 8/69 ± 15 mm Hg in normal vs. 79 ± 9/82 ± 9 mm Hg in borderline vs. 76 ± 9/92 ± 11 mm Hg in abnormal DBP response. There were 1,582 deaths (8%) with 557 (3%) CV deaths over 12 ± 5 years of follow-up. In patients with borderline and abnormal DBP response, odds ratios for obesity, hypertension, diabetes, and current smoking were significant, while hazard ratios for total and CV death were not significant compared with patients with normal DBP response. CONCLUSIONS DBP response to exercise is significantly associated with important comorbidities at the time of the stress test but does not add to the prognostic yield of stress test.

Background Heart rate ( HR ) recovery has been investigated in specific patient cohorts, but there is less information about the role of HR recovery in general populations. We investigated whether HR recovery has long‐term prognostic significance in primary prevention. Methods and Results Exercise tests performed between 1993 and 2010 on patients aged 30 to 79 years without cardiovascular disease were included. Mortality was determined from Mayo Clinic records and Minnesota Death Index. Total, cardiovascular , and non‐cardiovascular mortality was reported according to HR recovery <13 bpm using Cox regression. 19 551 patients were included, 6756 women (35%), age 51±10 years. There were 1271 deaths over follow‐up of 12±5 years. HR recovery declined after age 60, and was also lower according to diabetes mellitus, hypertension, obesity, current smoking, and poor cardiorespiratory fitness but not sex or β‐blockers. Adjusting for these factors, abnormal HR recovery was a significant predictor of total (hazard ratio [95% confidence interval]=1.56 [1.384–1.77]), cardiovascular (1.95 [1.57–2.42]), and non‐cardiovascular death (1.41 [1.22–1.64]). Hazard ratios for cardiovascular death according to abnormal HR recovery were significant in all age groups (30–59, 60–69, 70–79), in both sexes, in patients with and without hypertension, obesity, and diabetes mellitus, but not in patients taking β‐blockers, current smokers, and patients with normal cardiorespiratory fitness. Conclusions HR recovery is a powerful prognostic factor predicting total, cardiovascular, and non‐cardiovascular death in a primary prevention cohort. It performs consistently well according to sex, age, obesity, hypertension, and diabetes mellitus but shows diminished utility in patients taking β‐blockers, current smokers, and patients with normal cardiorespiratory fitness.

AbstractIntroductionTricuspid valve regurgitation (TR) is a frequent finding in patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH). However, its prognostic significance and relation to PAH, while suspected, are poorly understood. We assessed 727 consecutive patients with newly diagnosed PAH who underwent transthoracic echocardiographic evaluation of tricuspid valve function.ObjectivesThe study objective was to determine the association of TR presence and severity with patient characteristics, pulmonary artery hemodynamics and outcome.MethodsConsecutive patients with newly diagnosed PAH (N = 727 with group 1 pulmonary hypertension) underwent transthoracic echocardiographic evaluation of tricuspid valve function at diagnosis. The primary study end point was all‐cause mortality or lung transplantation.ResultsIn this population, 702 patients (96.5%) had TR; in 165 patients (23%), TR was severe. Compared with those with no or mild TR by echocardiography criteria, patients with severe TR had shorter mean (SD) 6‐minute walk distances (285 [125] m vs 360 [121] m; P = .02) and higher levels of B‐type natriuretic peptide (695 [672] pg/dL vs 328 [300] pg/dL; P < .05). Severe TR was associated with greater right atrial dilatation (91% vs 47%; P = .004) and right ventricular (RV) dilatation (92% vs 51%; P = .008), greater right atrial pressure (mean [SD] 15 [7] mm Hg vs 10 [6] mm Hg; P < .001) and lower cardiac index (mean [SD], 2.2 [0.7] L/min/m2 vs 2.8 [0.9] L/min/m2; P < .001). Severe TR was strongly predictive of greater 5‐year mortality risk after adjustment for age, sex, functional class, 6‐minute walk distance, diffusing capacity, RV size and pulmonary vascular resistance index (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.83; 95% CI, 1.38‐2.41; P < .001).ConclusionsSevere TR was a significant predictor of long‐term mortality rate in PAH, and TR severity correlated with PAH severity.

Abstract Background: The association between new-onset left ventricular (LV) dysfunction during sepsis with long-term heart failure outcomes is lesser understood. Methods: Retrospective cohort study of all adult patients with severe sepsis and septic shock between 2007 and 2014 who underwent echocardiography within 72 h of admission to the intensive care unit. Patients with prior heart failure, LV dysfunction, and structural heart disease were excluded. LV systolic dysfunction was defined as LV ejection fraction <50% and LV diastolic dysfunction as ≥grade II. Primary composite outcome included new hospitalization for acute decompensated heart failure and all-cause mortality at 2-year follow-up. Secondary outcomes included persistent LV dysfunction, and hospital mortality and length of stay. Results: During this 8-year period, 434 patients with 206 (48%) patients having LV dysfunction were included. The two groups had similar baseline characteristics, but those with LV dysfunction had worse function as demonstrated by worse LV ejection fraction, cardiac index, and LV diastolic dysfunction. In the 331 hospital survivors, new-onset acute decompensated heart failure hospitalization did not differ between the two cohorts (15% vs. 11%). The primary composite outcome was comparable at 2-year follow-up between the groups with and without LV dysfunction (P = 0.24). Persistent LV dysfunction was noted in 28% hospital survivors on follow-up echocardiography. Other secondary outcomes were similar between the two groups. Conclusions: In patients with severe sepsis and septic shock, the presence of new-onset LV dysfunction did not increase the risk of long-term adverse heart failure outcomes.

BACKGROUND To test the feasibility of percutaneous deployment of intracoronary polymeric stents, a prototype polyethylene terephthalate (PET) stent and a catheter-based delivery system were developed. METHODS AND RESULTS Polymeric stents were deployed in the coronary arteries of 11 Yucatan swine: six stents were placed in the left anterior descending coronary artery, four stents were placed in the circumflex artery, and one stent was placed in the right coronary artery. Stent deployment was achieved by withdrawal of an outer delivery sheath, thus allowing the PET stent to self-expand to a preformed configuration. Two animals died during surgery, one during stent placement and the other several hours after implantation due to intracoronary thrombus formation. Two animals were electively sacrificed within 24 hours of stent implant to examine the adequacy of stent deployment within the coronary vessel. The remaining seven animals survived until the termination of the study 4-6 weeks later. Light microscopic examination of the stented vessels showed an extensive neointimal proliferative response with vessel occlusion in all animals who survived initial stent placement. There were two distinct types of histological responses to the PET stent--a chronic foreign body inflammatory response around the stent tines and a neointimal proliferative response in the center of the occluded vessel lumen. The histological response seen in the central area of the vessel was morphologically similar to that seen in patients with restenosis after successful percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty, whereas the morphological response seen at the periphery of the stent tine was similar to that exhibited by a chronic foreign body reaction and was not typical of that seen in a restenosis lesion. A ventricular aneurysm also developed in the area of myocardium that was previously supplied by the occluded vessel. CONCLUSIONS This study demonstrates that percutaneous deployment of polymeric stents in the coronary arteries is technically feasible. The use of PET polymer was associated with an intense proliferative neointimal response that resulted in complete vessel occlusion. Histological examination of the stented segments of the vessel revealed no evidence that dissection of the vessel wall had occurred at the time of initial stent deployment. Although the PET polymer was of similar quality to that used in the manufacture of balloon angioplasty catheters, a toxic chemical or contaminant effect cannot be completely excluded as the stimulus to intimal proliferation. This finding may have relevance to the selection of materials for use as intravascular devices.