Guglielmelli, Paola

Background Survival risk models in essential thrombocythemia (ET) include the International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSET; Blood 2012;120:1197) and the more recently described “triple-A” prognostic score that considers Age and absolute neutrophil (ANC) and lymphocyte (ALC) counts, as risk variables (AJH 2023;98:1829). Monocytosis, defined by absolute monocyte count (AMC) of ≥0.8 x 109/L, was recently reported to be associated with inferior survival in polycythemia vera (ASH 2024 abstract). The current study examined the prognostic contribution of monocytosis in ET, in the context of other clinical and genetic risk factors. Methods Study patients were recruited from Mayo Clinic (USA) databases, based on availability of information on ANC, ALC, and AMC (N=649). Diagnostic criteria were according to the International Consensus Classification (Blood 2022;140:1200). Mutations were screened by next-generation sequencing (NGS). Conventional statistical methods were employed (JMP Pro 17.0.0, SAS Institute, Cary, NC, USA) and optimal cut-points for age, ANC, ALC, and AMC were determined by Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis. Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and ROC plots were used to estimate predictive accuracy of risk models. Results A total of 649 patients (median age 60 years; females 65%) were informative for AMC, ANC, and ALC, with median (range) values of 0.6 x 109/L (0.2-2.5), 5.7 x 109/L (1.5-26.5), and 1.9 (0.4-5.7), respectively. At presentation, IPSET risk distribution was low in 34%, intermediate 47%, and high 19%; triple-A risk distribution was low 21%, intermediate-1 50%, intermediate-2 13%, and high 16%; driver mutation distribution was 63.8% JAK2, 24.0% CALR, 3.7% MPL, and 8.5% triple-negative; median for platelets were 728 x 109/L, hemoglobin 13.9 g/dL, and leukocytes 8.5 x 109/L ; leukocytosis (leukocytes ≥11 x 109/L) was documented in 18.8% of patients, palpable splenomegaly 7%, arterial thrombosis (AT) history 14.5%, venous thrombosis (VT) history 9.2%, and major hemorrhage 7.8%. At median follow-up of 7 years (range 0.02-31.4), 146 (22.5%) deaths, 52 (8%) fibrotic progressions, 22 (3.4%) leukemic transformations, 71 (11%) AT events, 36 (5.6%) VT events, and 64 (10%) major bleeds were recorded. In age-adjusted univariate analysis, higher AMC was significantly associated with inferior survival, with a ROC determined cutoff value of ≥0.8 x 109/L (N=154; 24%); significance was sustained (HR 2.3; p<0.01) during multivariable analysis (MVA) that also identified age >70 years (HR 16.6; p<0.01), age 50-70 years (HR 4.3; p<0.01), ANC ≥8 x 109/L (HR 1.9; p<0.01), ALC <1.7 x 109/L (HR 1.8; p<0.01), and AT history (HR 1.6; p=0.01). A similar MVA conducted on an external cohort from the University of Florence (N=514) confirmed the significant contribution from all of these risk variables, except AT (p=0.8). An HR-based 4-variable prognostic model based on Age >70 years (4 points) or 50-70 years (2 points), AMC ≥0.8 x 109/L (1 point), ANC ≥8 x 109/L (1 point), and ALC <1.7 x 109/L (1 point), henceforth referred to as the AAA+A model, was subsequently developed using the Mayo Clinic cohort and validated by the Florence cohort: Low (0-1 points; N= 180; median not reached), intermediate-1 (2-3 points; N=266; median 21.6 years), intermediate-2 (4-5 points; N=151; median 12.2 years), and high (6-7 points; N=52; median 8.7 years); HR values were 2.1 for high vs. intermediate-2, 5.4 for intermediate-2 vs. intermediate-1, and 3.8 for intermediate-1 vs. low (p<0.001in all instances). The 20-year survival predictive performance of AAA+A (AIC 131; AUC 0.88) was superior to that of AAA (AIC 143; AUC 0.85) and IPSET (AIC 149; AUC 0.84). In MVA that included AAA+A risk variables, AMC ≥0.8 x 109/L (p=0.04) and ALC <1.7 x 109/L (p=0.06) appeared to affect leukemia-free survival and ANC ≥8 x 109/L (p=0.04) myelofibrosis-free survival. In univariate analysis, AMC ≥0.8 x 109/L was associated with AT (p=0.03) but not VT (p=0.14) history and showed borderline significance for venous (p=0.09) and arterial (p=0.07) thrombosis-free survivals; however, significance was lost during MVA. Conclusions: Monocytosis is an adverse prognostic factor in ET and its inclusion as a risk variable enhances the predictive performance of the AAA risk model and is equally simple to apply worldwide. Analyses that include mutations will be presented at meeting.

Background: The JAK2 46/1, also referred to as the GGCC, haplotype, is represented by 4 main SNPs spanning a region of 250kb in chr9 including the JAK2 gene, that are in complete linkage disequilibrium. The GGCC haplo was found to confer susceptibility to JAK2 mutated myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPN) (Jones AV, 2009; Olcaydu D, 2009; Kilpivaara O, 2009) while association with JAK2-wildtype MPN remains controversial (Pardanani A, 2010; Jones AV, 2010; Guglielmelli P, 2010; Trifa A, 2016). The GGCC haplo was also found enriched in MPN pts with splancnic vein thrombosis (SVT) (Smalberg JH, 2011), and to correlate with higher JAK2V617F variant allele frequency (VAF) (Alvarez-Larran, A, 2012). Nullizigosity for GGCC haplo was associated with reduced survival (OS) in pts with myelofibrosis (MF) (Tefferi A, 2019), but no information on the impact of GGCC haplo status with phenotype and outcome in PV is available. Aim: To assess the clinical correlates and the prognostic significance of GGCC haplo status in a large cohort of pts with PV. Pts and Methods: A total of 399 PV pts, all JAK2V617F mutated, diagnosis revised according to 2022 ICC criteria, were genotyped for 46/1 haplotype by PCR allele discrimination with rs12343867 (with the “C” allele standing for 46/1 haplotype). Results: A total of 301 pts (75.4%) had the C allele, of which 143 (47.5%) were CC homo and 158 (52.5%) CT hetero; 98 (24.6%) were nullizygous for GGCC (TT). Since preliminary analysis disclosed no significant difference between CT and TT haplotype for all variables considered, homozygous CC pts were compared to TT+CT. The CC haplotype was associated with higher leukocytes (median 11.3x10e9/L vs 9.6, p<.001), higher hemoglobin (18.4 g/dL vs 17.5, p<.001), lower platelets (441x10e9/L vs 514, p=.002) more aquagenic pruritus (51.8% vs 33.2%, p=.001), and higher JAK2VAF (60.8+-24.8% vs 36.8+-19.7%, p<.001) at diagnosis. Pts with a VAF >50% were 69% in CC versus 24.1% in TT+CT pts (p<.001). ASXL1 mutations were enriched among CC pts (20.3% vs 9.4%, p=0.04), otherwise no difference regarding additional myeloid mutations was noted. All above differences remained significant when considering CC versus TT and CT separately. More pts with CC haplotype suffered from venous thrombosis (VT) during the FU (16.1% vs 4.3%, p<.001), no difference was noted for arterial thrombosis nor for splancnic vein thrombosis. VT-FS by Kaplan Meyer was significantly shorter (p<.001) in CC pts; the rate of VT at 5, 10, 15y after diagnosis, was 5.5%, 12%, 20.2% for CC versus 2.6%, 3.4%, 6.4% for TT+CT, respectively (all p<.001). In multivariable analysis, including JAK2VAF >50%, age >60y, history of VT, WBC >15x10e9/L, only CC haplo remained significant (HR 3.6, 95%CI 1.4-9.5, p=.009). Progression to post-PV MF occurred in 81 pts (20.3%), significantly more among CC (n=45, 31.5%) than TT+CT (n=36; 14.1%; p<.001). Myelofibrosis-FS was significantly shorter in CC vs other genotypes (p=.02). However, in multivariable analysis, only BM fibrosis G1 remained significant (HR 3.2, 1.7-5.9; p<.001). Evolution to blast-phase occurred in 13 pts (3.2%), 9 (6.3%) with CC haplo vs 4 TT+CT (1.6%; p=.01). During the follow-up, 102 pts (25.5%) died, 50 (35%) CC and 52 TT+CT (20.3%; p=.001). In multivariable analysis, including MIPSS-PV variables (Tefferi A 2020), the CC haplo remained significant (HR 1.8, 1.04-3.2, p=.03) together with age (HR 3.0, 1.6-5.7; p<.001), WBC (HR 2.6, 1.3-4.8; p=.004), and thrombosis history (HR 1.9, 1.0-3.7; p=.03). Conclusions. Homozygosity for the 46/1 or CC haplotype contributes to the phenotype diversity of PV, in part possibly mediated by associated higher JAK2V67F VAF, and predicts for incident VT and shorter OS. Supported by AIRC, 21267; MIUR,2022F4WMR3; IHM, PNRR-MAD-2022-12376695

Background In 2013, we published the first International Working Group (IWG) risk model for survival in polycythemia vera (PV), which included 3-tiered age categories, leukocytosis (≥15 x 109/L), and venous thrombosis, as risk variables (Leukemia. 2013;27:1874). In the current study, we examined the individual prognostic contribution from specific leukocyte components and mutations, in order to construct a more contemporary clinical risk model in PV and assess its interaction with genetic risk factors. Methods Study patients were retrospectively recruited from the Mayo Clinic, USA (N=1,007) and the University of Florence, Italy (N=514), in order to serve as discovery and validation cohorts, respectively. Diagnostic criteria were according to the International Consensus Classification (Blood 2022;140:1200). Mutations were screened by next-generation sequencing (NGS). Conventional statistical methods were employed (JMP Pro 17.0.0, SAS Institute, Cary, NC, USA) and optimal cut-points for age, absolute neutrophil (ANC), lymphocyte (ALC), and monocyte (AMC) counts were determined by Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis. Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and ROC plots were used to estimate predictive accuracy. Results Presenting features in the Mayo discovery cohort (N=1,007) included: median age 62.2 years; males 50.7%; median leukocyte count 10.8 x 109/L; leukocyte count ≥15 x 109/L 19%; palpable splenomegaly 32%; pruritus 34%; diabetes 16%; hypertension 61%; arterial thrombosis 14%; and venous thrombosis 14%. ANC, AMC, and ALC information was available in 736 patients with respective median (range) values of 7.6 (1.6-30), 0.6 (0-4.1), and 1.54 (0.19-6.9) x 109/L. At a median follow-up of 8.9 years for the Mayo discovery cohort, 372 (37%) deaths, 46 (4.6%) leukemic transformations, and 200 (20%) fibrotic progressions were recorded. Multivariable analysis (MVA) employing ROC-determined cutoff values revealed adverse survival impact for age >70 years (HR 18.3; p<0.01), age 50-70 years (HR 4.9; p<0.01), AMC ≥0.8 x 109/L (HR 1.5; p<0.01), ANC ≥8 x 109/L (HR 1.5; p<0.01), arterial thrombosis (HR 1.5; p<0.01), diabetes (HR 1.4; p=0.04), and male sex (HR 1.3; p=0.05). A similar MVA applied to the Florence validation cohort (N=514) confirmed significance for age (p<0.01), ANC (p<0.01), AMC (p=0.04), and arterial thrombosis (p<0.01), but not for male sex (p=0.8) or diabetes (p=0.15). Accordingly, age >70 years (4 points), age 50-70 years (2 points), ANC ≥8 x 109/L (1 point), AMC ≥0.8 x 109/L (1 point), and AT (1 point) were included in a revised IWG survival model using the Mayo cohort and validated by the Florence cohort: very low risk (0 points; N=67; median 37 years), low risk (1 point; N=55; median 29.2 years), intermediate risk (2-3 points; N=308; median 20.2 years), high risk (4-5 points; N=217; median 11.5 years), and very high risk (6-7 points; N=88; median 6.3 years). 20-year survival prediction performance of the revised IWG model (AIC 204; AUC 0.88) was superior to that of the 2013 IWG version (AIC 350; AUC 0.86). Mutation information at diagnosis/chronic phase was available in 270 Mayo patients: ASXL1 10%; SRSF2 4%, IDH2 2%, TP53 2%, RUNX1 1.4%. MVA of mutations identified SRSF2 (p<0.01), IDH2 (p=0.01), and ASXL1 (p=0.05), as risk factors for overall survival. The presence of any one adverse mutation was more likely in patients with AMC ≥0.8 x 109/L (24% vs. 7% incidence; p<0.01). In all-inclusive MVA, independent risk factors for OS were age >70 years (HR 14.7), age 50-70 years (HR 6.2), any one adverse mutation (HR 3.4), and ANC ≥8 x 109/L (HR 2.3), but not AMC ≥0.8 x 109/L (p=0.9), arterial thrombosis (p=0.24), or abnormal karyotype (p=0.4). Leukemia-free survival was adversely affected by SRSF2, RUNX1, TP53, and ASXL1 mutations and myelofibrosis-free survival by SRSF2 mutation. Conclusions: The currently proposed revised IWG risk model for survival in PV is globally applicable and based on four easily accessible clinical variables (Age, ANC, AMC, and arterial thrombosis). NGS-derived mutation information overshadows the prognostic relevance of monocytosis, provides additional prognostic information for overall survival, and assists in predicting leukemic and fibrotic transformations.

Background A JAK2 mutation is detected in almost all patients with polycythemia vera (PV) and in ⁓50% of those with essential thrombocythemia (ET). The two diseases also share characteristic clinical and bone marrow morphological traits, suggesting they exist on a disease continuum rather than representing discrete entities. The objective of the current study was to compare clinical and genetic characteristics as well as long-term outcome between formally-defined PV vs. JAK2-mutated ET vs. JAK2-wild-type (WT) ET. Methods Study patients were retrospectively recruited from Mayo Clinic, USA databases (1967-2024). Diagnostic criteria were according to the International Consensus Classification (ICC; Blood 2022;140:1200). All study patients were fully annotated for JAK2, CALR, and MPL mutations while cytogenetic and additional next-generation sequencing (NGS)-derived mutation information was available in a subset of patients. Conventional statistical methods were employed for phenotypic comparisons and survival analysis. Results Among 2,010 study patients, 1,010 had PV, 617 (63%) JAK2-mutated ET, and 383 JAK2-WT ET (CALR 26%; MPL 3%; triple-negative 9%). Phenotypic comparisons revealed older age distribution in PV compared to JAK2-mutated ET (p=0.03) and the latter compared to JAK2-WT ET (p<0.01). Females were represented more in JAK2-mutated ET (69%), compared to both PV (49%; p<0.01) and JAK2-WT ET (54%; p<0.01). The frequencies of leukocytosis, palpable splenomegaly, constitutional symptoms, diabetes, hypertension, and abnormal karyotype were all significantly higher in PV, compared to both groups of ET, while JAK2-mutated compared to JAK2-WT ET displayed higher leukocyte count and incidence of hypertension. The incidences of arterial thrombosis at/prior to diagnosis were 14%, 16%, and 10% in PV, JAK2-mutated and WT ET, respectively (P=0.03), and venous thrombosis 14%, 13%, and 6% (p<0.01). After a median follow-up of 8.6 years, 632 (32%) deaths, 329 (16%) fibrotic progressions, 79 (4%) leukemic transformations, and 236 (12%) arterial and 202 (10%) venous thrombotic events were recorded, among all 2,010 study patients. Median overall survival was 19.3 years for PV vs. 17.8 years for JAK2-mutated ET vs. 23 years for JAK2-WT ET (p<0.01); however, the significant difference in favor of JAK2-WT ET was no longer apparent when analysis was adjusted for age and sex (p=0.15) and subsequently for other risk factors (p=0.86). All-inclusive multivariable analysis identified older age (p<0.01), male sex (p<0.01), higher leukocyte count (p<0.01), and arterial thrombosis history (p<0.01), but not the distinction between PV, JAK2-mutated, and JAK2-WT ET (p=0.9), to be independently associated with shortened survival. Leukemia-free survival was similar between PV and either JAK2-mutated (p=0.5) or JAK2-WT (p=0.1) ET. On the other hand, myelofibrosis-free survival was shorter in PV, compared to both JAK2-mutated (HR 1.8, 1.4-2.4; p<0.01) and JAK2-WT (HR 1.4. 1.0-1.8; p=0.03) ET. In multivariable analysis, older age (p<0.01), higher leukocyte count (p<0.01), PV vs. JAK2-mutated ET (HR 1.8; p<0.01), and JAK2-WT vs. JAK2-mutated ET (HR 1.6; p=0.01) were associated with a higher risk of fibrotic progression, with no difference noted between PV and JAK2-WT ET (p=0.4). Arterial thrombosis-free survival was similar between PV and JAK2-mutated ET (p=0.8). In univariate analysis, JAK2-WT ET vs. PV was associated with superior arterial thrombosis-free survival (p=0.02), but significance was lost when analysis was adjusted for arterial thrombosis history (p=0.1). Venous thrombosis-free survival favored JAK2-WT ET vs. PV (HR 0.3; p<0.01) and JAK2-mutated ET (HR 0.6; p=0.02) and the latter vs. PV (HR 0.6; p<0.01); the significant differences between PV and both groups of ET were sustained when analysis was adjusted for age, sex, and venous thrombosis history. Conclusions The current study highlights significant demographic and phenotypic differences between PV and JAK2-mutated ET. However, risk factor-adjusted overall, leukemia-free, and arterial thrombosis-free survival was not inferior in PV, compared to ET, regardless of the presence or absence of a JAK2 mutation in the latter. JAK2-WT ET was distinctly associated with a lower risk of venous thrombosis while JAK2-mutated ET appeared to be less vulnerable to fibrotic progression.

Abstract With emerging new drugs in myelofibrosis (MF), a robust and harmonized framework for defining the severity of anemia and response to treatment will enhance clinical investigation and facilitate interstudy comparisons. Accordingly, the lead authors on the 2013 edition of the International Working Group–European LeukemiaNet (IWG-ELN) response criteria in MF were summoned to revise their document with the intent to (1) account for gender-specific differences in determining hemoglobin levels for eligibility criteria; (2) revise the definition of transfusion-dependent anemia (TDA) based on current restrictive transfusion practices; and (3) provide a structurally simple and easy to apply response criteria that are sensitive enough to detect efficacy signals (minor response) and also account for major responses. The initial draft of the 2024 IWG-ELN proposed criteria was subsequently circulated around a wider group of international experts and their feedback incorporated. The proposed articles include new definitions for TDA (≥3 units in the 12 weeks before study enrollment) and hemoglobin thresholds for eligibility criteria (<10 g/dL for women and <11 g/dL for men). The revised document also provides separate (TDA vs non-TDA) and graded (major vs minor response) response criteria while preserving the requirement for a 12-week period of screening and observation on treatment.

Abstract Among 281 patients with essential thrombocythemia and calreticulin (CALR) mutation, we found a variant allele frequency of ≥60% to be associated with significantly shortened myelofibrosis-free survival, mostly apparent with CALR type-1 and CALR type-indeterminate mutations.

Background: In addition to the driver mutations JAK2, CALR and MPL, patients (pts) with primary myelofibrosis (PMF) may also express mutations in a number of genes frequently associated with myeloid neoplasms. These genes encode regulators of chromatin modification and DNA methylation, RNA splicing and transcription, as well as oncogenes and signal transduction. In pts with PMF, including those with prefibrotic (pre-)-PMF, selected mutations were shown to deserve prognostic relevance, and led to the development of molecular integrated, or exclusive, scores (such as MIPSS70, MIPSS70-plus, GIPSS and others). Aim: The aim of the study was to correlate the type of mutations, clustered in relation to their known functional classes, with hematological and clinical correlates, and outcome in a large population of molecularly annotated pts with PMF. Patients and Methods: All pts with a confirmed ICC 2022 diagnosis of PMF from the database at CRIMM (Florence), for whom mutation analysis of a panel of 40 myeloid neoplasm-associated genes performed by NGS (Oncomine, ThermoFisher) was available, were included in the study. Pts were stratified in 6 categories based on known function of mutated gene: spliceosome (cat. 1: SF3B1, U2AF1, SRSF2, ZRSR2), DNA methylation gene (cat. 2: TET2, DNMT3A, IDH1, IDH2, SETBP1), histone modification gene (cat. 3: ASXL1, EZH2), RAS pathway (cat. 4: NRAS, KRAS, CBL, NF1, PTPN11), transcription factor (cat. 5: RUNX1, NFE2, TP53) and “other” gene mutations (cat. 6: LNK/SH2B3). Results: A total of 286 pts with at least 1 myeloid neoplasm-associated gene mutation were included (110 prePMF, 38.5%; 176 overt PMF, 61.5%). Of these, 69 have mutations in spliceosome genes, 81 in DNA methylation genes, 95 in histone modification genes, 19 in the RAS pathway, 13 in transcription factor genes and 9 in “other” gene category. Analysis of clinical characteristics (Table) showed that Cat. 1 pts were significantly older (80.6% aged >60y, P=0.003), no difference regarding gender. There was no difference in blood counts but circulating blasts >1%, that were higher in cat 3 and 1 compared to the others (P=0.009). A G3 fibrosis was more common in cat 3 and 5 (43.5% and 50%, p<0.001). No significant difference was noticed as regarded driver mutations and karyotype abnormalities. Splenomegaly was more common in cat 3 and cat 6 (86.5% and 88.9%, respectively, p=0.015), while constitutional symptoms were enriched in cat 5 (69.2%, p=0.015). The proportion of pts with transfusion dependency was lower among those with mutations in DNA methylation genes (cat. 2) and “other” mutations (cat. 6) (21% and 22.2%, respectively, p=0.014). There was no significant difference among gene categories as regarded IPSS score, MIPSS70 score, thrombosis and bleeding events, progression to overt MF (in case of pre-PMF), transformation to AML and rate of secondary neoplasms. The median overall survival (OS) for all pts was 7.1 years (IC: 5.7-8.5), with categories 2, 4 and 5 showing the longest survival (10.7y (6.3-15.1), 11.5y (4.4-18.7), and 10.5y (2-18.9) respectively). In particular, pts in cat 2 showed significantly longer OS than pts in cat 1 (5.4y; HR 1.7, 95% CI, 1.1-2.6; p=0.021) and cat 3 (10.7 vs 6.1y; HR 1.5, 95% CI, 1-2.3). Considering that cat 1, 3, and 6 on one side, and cat 2, 4, 5 on the other, did not differ significant each to the other, we combined those categories to assess respective impact on survival. We found a statistically significant difference between the 2 groups, with pts harboring mutations in spliceosome, histone modifiers and “other” genes having significantly shortened survival (5.8y, CI 4.1-7.5; HR 1.57, CI 1.13-2.18) compared to the other categories (median survival, 10.8y, CI 7.2-14.3) (P=.007). Conclusion: Current analysis revealed distinctive clinical characteristics and survival outcomes associated with specific categories of mutated myeloid genes in pts with PMF, largely overlapping with the ICC defined “myelodysplasia-related gene mutations” category.

Background. A mutation in calreticulin ( CALRm) is found in 30-35% of patients (pts) with Essential Thrombocythemia (ET). There are 2 main CALRm mutation types, Type 1/Type 1 like (T1) a 52bp deletion, and Type 2/Type 2 like (T2) a 5bp insertion. Other atypical mutations (T3) occur in a minority of pts. Recent study ( Guglielmelli P et al, BCJ 2023) in pts with myelofibrosis (MF) showed that higher CALR variant allele frequency (VAF) was associated with anemia at diagnosis and during FU, and to features of more advanced disease (CD34 + cell counts, ASXL1 mutation (mut), >2 mutated myeloid genes, and shorter leukocytosis-free survival. Aim. To evaluate whether the CALRm VAF in pts with ET was associated with predefined major clinical outcomes: evolution to MF, transformation to acute leukemia (AML), thrombosis, major bleeding, and survival (OS). Patients and Methods. Diagnosis of ET was strictly according to 2023 WHO and ICC to avoid mis-inclusion of prefibrotic MF. CALRm VAF was determined by capillary gel electrophoresis as the ratio (%) of areas under the curve of CALRm/ CALRm+ CALRwt. A panel of 45 myeloid neoplasm-associated genes was sequenced by NGS. Results. A total of 281 CALRm ET pts were identified from CRIMM (Florence, I), Quebec MPN Research Group centers' (Canada) and Mayo Clinic (Rochester, US) databases; 152 (54%), 101 (36%) and 28 (10%) were T1, T2 and T3 CALRm, respectively. Overall FU was 8.6y (0.3-39.4), median survival was not reached. Rate of death at 10y, 20y and 30y was 8%, 15% and 25%. MF transformation occurred in 50 pts (18%), AML in 2 (0.7%), 25 pts (8.9%) died. A major thrombotic event before or at ET diagnosis occurred in 17 (6.0 %) pts (14 arterial and 3 venous), whereas 28 pts (10.0%) had >1 major thrombosis during follow-up (53.6% arterial, 46.4% venous). Major bleeding occurred in 19 pts (6.8%; 16 at or before diagnosis). Ascertainment of correlation of CALRm VAF with predefined outcomes by continuous variable analysis (ROC curve) highlighted a significant correlation of VAF >60% with MF-free survival (MFS), with HR of 2.85 (95%CI, 1.4-5.6; P= .002. Fig. 1A). On the contrary, there was no impact of CALRm VAF as continuous variable on AML, thrombosis, bleeding and OS. We therefore used a threshold of >60% to compare main clinical and hematologic characteristics at diagnosis and outcomes during FU in pts categorized as CALR-high and CALR-low. Of all pts, 21 (7.5%) harbored a VAF >60%; of these, 52%, 19% and 29% were T1, T2, T3, respectively, compared to 54%, 37%, 8% of CALR-low (P= .008). We found no difference in age, gender, constitutional symptoms, splenomegaly, arterial and venous thrombosis at diagnosis and FU, IPSET revised risk stratification, and bleeding events. Hemoglobin was lower (12.8 g/dL (8.4-14.0) versus 13.6 (10.1-16.0); P=.02), while leukocytes and platelets did not differ. The proportion of pts with additional mutations in myeloid genes was significantly greater in CALR-high pts compared to CALR-low (66.7% vs 30.2%; P=0.01), as it was the proportion of pts with >2 mut myeloid genes (25% vs 11.6%, P=0.04). During FU, 52% of CALR-high pts (n=11) transformed to MF compared to 15% (n=39) of CALR-low (P<.0001); AML and death not differ. Anemia (<10g/dL) during the FU developed in 69% of CALR-high pts vs 18%, leukocytosis (>15x10 9/L) in 46% vs 8% and splenomegaly (greater than 5 cm from LCM) in 50% vs 12% (P<.0001 for all). The HR for anemia-free survival was 2.87 (95%CI, 1.3-6.3), for leukocytosis HR 3.71 (95%CI, 1.3-10.5) and splenomegaly HR 3.40 (95%CI, 1.2-9.2), all P<.01. MFS was significantly shorter in T1 (HR 2.0; P=0.04) or T3 (HR 2.7; P=0.03) using T2 as reference. Finally, we compared C ALR-mut, JAK2V617F mut and triple-negative (TN) ET pts. ROC analysis indicated a JAK2VAF >35% ( JAK2-high) as the best cutoff for shorter MFS. As in Fig. 1B, the MFS survival of CALR-high and JAK2-high was superimposable, and significantly shorter that in CALR/JAK2-low and TN pts. Conclusions. A CALR VAF >60% in pts with ET is associated with greater risk and shorter time to MF progression, development of anemia and splenomegaly. Similar findings in JAK2-high pts reinforce that that accumulation of mutated CALR and JAK2 alleles, evident since diagnosis, is detrimental for evolution to post-ET myelofibrosis. Longitudinal studies after diagnosis might provide further information about the kinetics of allele accumulation.

Abstract We examined the individual prognostic contribution of absolute neutrophil (ANC), lymphocyte (ALC), and monocyte (AMC) counts, on overall (OS), leukemia‐free (LFS), and myelofibrosis‐free (MFFS) survival in essential thrombocythemia (ET). Informative cases ( N = 598; median age 59 years; females 62%) were retrospectively accrued from a Mayo Clinic database: JAK2 59%, CALR 27%, triple‐negative 11%, and MPL 3%; international prognostic scoring system for ET (IPSET) risk high 21%, intermediate 42%, and low 37%; 7% (37/515) had abnormal karyotype and 10% (21/205) adverse mutations ( SF3B1/SRSF2/U2AF1/TP53 ). At median 8.4 years, 163 (27%) deaths, 71 (12%) fibrotic, and 20 (3%) leukemic transformations were recorded. Multivariable analysis resulted in HR (95% CI) of 16.5 (9.9–27.4) for age > 70 years, 3.7 (2.3–6.0) for age 50–70 years, 2.4 (1.7–3.3) for ANC ≥8 × 10 9 /L, and 1.9 (1.4–2.6) for ALC <1.7 × 10 9 /L. The corresponding HR‐based scores were 4, 2, 1, and 1, resulting in an new 4‐tiered AgeAncAlc (AAA; triple A) risk model: high (5–6 points; median survival 8 years; HR 30.1, 95% CI 17.6–54), intermediate‐2 (4 points; median 13.5 years; HR 12.7, 95% CI 7.1–23.0), intermediate‐1 (2–3 points; median 20.7 years; HR 3.8, 95% CI 2.3–6.4) and low (0–1 points; median 47 years). The AAA model (Akaike Information Criterion [AIC] 621) performed better than IPSET (AIC 647) and was subsequently validated by an external University of Florence ET cohort ( N = 485). None of the AAA variables predicted LFS while ALC <1.7 × 10 9 /L was associated with inferior MFFS ( p = .01). Adverse mutations ( p < .01) and karyotype ( p < .01) displayed additional prognostic value without disqualifying the prognostic integrity of the AAA model. This study proposes a simple and globally applicable survival model for ET, which can be used as a platform for further molecular refinement. This study also suggests a potential role for immune‐related biomarkers, as a prognostic tool in myeloproliferative neoplasms.