Eng, Cathy

Abstract Meta-analysis based on individual participant data (IPD) is a powerful methodology for synthesizing evidence by combining information drawn from multiple trials. Hitherto, its principal application has been in questions of clinical management, but an increasingly important use is in clarifying trials methodology, for instance in the selection of endpoints, as discussed in this review. In oncology, the Aide et Recherche en Cancérologie Digestive (ARCAD) Metastatic Colorectal Cancer Database is a leader in the use of IPD-based meta-analysis in methodological research. The ARCAD database contains IPD from more than 38 000 patients enrolled in 46 studies and continues to collect phase III trial data. Here, we review the principal findings of the ARCAD project in respect of endpoint selection and examine their implications for cancer trials. Analysis of the database has confirmed that progression-free survival (PFS) is no longer a valid surrogate endpoint predictive of overall survival in the first-line treatment of colorectal cancer. Nonetheless, PFS remains an endpoint of choice for most first-line trials in metastatic colorectal cancer and other solid tumors. Only substantial PFS effects are likely to translate into clinically meaningful benefits, and accordingly, we advocate an oncology research model designed to identify highly effective treatments in carefully defined patient groups. We also review the use of the ARCAD database in assessing clinical response including novel response metrics and prognostic markers. These studies demonstrate the value of IPD as a tool for methodological studies and provide a reference point for the expansion of this approach within clinical cancer research.

4047 Background: BRAFV600E mutations occur in fewer than 10% of all patients (pts) with metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) and arise from sessile serrated adenomas. Despite efficacy with targeted therapies against MAPK signaling and with immunotherapies in this population, survival outcomes for pts with BRAFV600E mCRC in general are poor. Characteristics distinguishing pts with BRAFV600E mCRC with favorable versus unfavorable outcomes have not been well annotated. Methods: Records of 188 pts with BRAFV600E mCRC evaluated at MD Anderson Cancer Center between 3/2010-1/2020 were reviewed. Pts with the shortest and longest metastatic survival (N = 25 for each group) were compared. Associations between prognostic group and clinical/pathologic features were measured by odds ratio and for median survival by log-rank testing. Results: Median metastatic survival differed between the 2 BRAFV600E mCRC populations (8.6 vs 84 months, p < .0001). Pts with poor survival more commonly had primary tumors arising from the hepatic flexure/proximal transverse colon (44% vs 16%, p = .04) and more frequent hepatic involvement (75% vs 28%, p = .001). Pts with favorable survival were more likely to develop metachronous metastases (52% vs 16%, p = .01), have fewer distant organ involvement (median 1 vs 2, p = .02), and undergo definitive locoregional therapy to metastatic disease (44% vs 0%, p = .01). Microsatellite instability (36% vs 4%, p = .008) and a history of tobacco use (44% vs 16%, p = .04) were associated with a favorable prognosis. Durable responses to MAPK-targeted therapies (5/25) and immunotherapy (3/25) were noted in the favorable group. Conclusions: Pts with BRAFV600E mCRC can achieve excellent long-term survival which belies conventional context and is driven by locoregional and systemic treatment options alike. Anatomic localization of the primary tumor and prior exposures may highlight environmental influences on tumor biology which account for the clinical heterogeneity of pts with BRAFV600E mCRC.

e15055 Background: An increasing number of pt and tumor c have predictive and prognostic implications in mCRC. However, there is no consensus on their reporting in trial results. Methods: Pt c and SF from 136 phase III trials of systemic therapies (Rx) in mCRC published between 1988 and 2018 (68,326 pts) were collected. Trials were also grouped per publication date (G1: 1988-97; G2: 98 – 2007; G3: 08-18). Patterns of reporting and trends across G were evaluated. Results: Pt c consistently reported were performance status, PS (98.5%), age (92.6%) and gender (90.4%); race (20.6%) & weight/BMI/BSA were not (13.2%). Tumor c frequently reported were metastatic (met) spread (70.6%) while time intervals related to disease course (25%) and synchronous met vs not (19.1%) were omitted. Of note, primary site was largely reported as colon vs rectum (69%) and sidedness or anatomical location was discernable only in 10.3%. Prior Rx reporting focused on chemo (58.5%) with radiation and surgery and reported in 34% & 28.7%. Reporting of prognostic factors was variable and limited: histology grade CEA, alk phos, LDH (range 10.3-15.4%). Only 11.8% of trials reported genomic factors - KRAS MT was included in all with BRAF MT in 4.4%. Of 140 trials used for SF analysis, 115 had ≥ 1 (range 1-7). Common SF were PS (60%), geography /institution (55.7%). Prior Rx (27%), met spread (24.3%) were sometimes used while primary site (7.8%), genomic factors (6.1%) rarely were. Trends across G are per Table. Conclusions: There is marked inconsistency in pt c & SF reporting in mCRC trials. Consensus guidelines will aid in standardization of trial interpretation and future meta-analyses; and will need to be updated based on emerging data. [Table: see text]

656 Background: Despite multiple trials of new agents in metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC), long term outcomes remain poor. This study explores the changing trends in the design, interpretation and outcomes of phase III randomized controlled trials (RCT) in mCRC over time. Methods: Phase III RCTs of systemic therapy for mCRC with enrollment between 1986 and 2016 were identified through 4 electronic databases and grouped into 3 time periods (1986-1996 – T1; 1997-2006 – T2 & 2007-2016 – T3). Study selection, quality appraisal and data collection were performed by 2 independent investigators. Study characteristics, primary and secondary endpoints, and authors’ interpretation of results and conclusions were analyzed. Improvement in overall survival (OS) was the difference between experimental and control arms. A study was deemed positive if it met its end point, was recommended for further study or for adoption for clinical use (p ≤ 0.05 significant for all analyses). Results: One hundred fifty trials (T1=36, T2=62, T3=52) with 77494 patients (T1=12406, T2=39158, T3=25930) were included. Although 1st line therapy trials continued to be the most common across all T, the percentage (%) of trials evaluating 3rd line and beyond (T1=0, T2=3, T3=27) have increased significantly over time as have trials with targeted agents (T1=11, T2=34, T3=79). Although OS remains the most common primary end point, more trials in T2 & T3 have used progression-free survival instead (14 vs 47 & 44). The % of trials with negative results but interpreted as positive increased over time (T1=18; T2=42; T3=35). Across all T, the median improvement in OS (months, m) of these trials was significantly lower compared to the trials that met primary end point across all T (T1 = 0 vs 1.8 m, T2 = -0.1 vs 3.25, T3 = -0.25 vs 2.55). Conclusions: A significant shift has occurred over the past three decades in the design and interpretation of phase III trials in advanced CRC. Any interpretations of potential survival benefits from trials that have not met primary end point must be made with significant caution.

678 Background: Improvements in outcome of medical therapy for mCRC are closely linked to availability of active agents. Based on phase III clinical data, regorafenib, a multikinase inhibitor, received FDA approval September 2012 for patients with mCRC previously treated with all approved therapies. Post regorafenib therapy (PRTx) has not been established. Based on clinical observations, we established a multi-institution collaboration to assess chemotherapy response in mCRC after regorafenib therapy. Methods: After IRB approval, patient records at Mayo Clinic (MC), MD Anderson (MDA) and the University of Southern California (USC) from April 2010 to February 2014 were reviewed for regorafenib use and outcomes for mCRC. Therapies, patient and tumor characteristics were reviewed. Response and progression were determined by investigator review. Kaplan-Meier method was used to calculate survival. Results: Regorafenib was given to 173 patients with mCRC (MC:59 MDA:95 and USC:19). Of these, 11 (6%) continued on regorafenib at time of analysis and 98 (57%) received no additional therapy. PRTx was given to 64 (37%) patients, 31 of which went on a clinic trial. 33 patients were treated with standard approved therapy of which 11 (33%) progressed, 20 (61%) showed response or SD, and 2 (6%) were not evaluable. Out of the 33 treated with standard agents, 8 (24%) had stable disease or response to a treatment previously discontinued without definitive PD, whereas 4 (12%) responded to rechallenge with chemotherapy previously discontinued due to PD. Response was noted in 8 (24%) patients that received an agent not given prior to regorafenib. After discontinuation of regorafenib, mOS was 6.5 mo (CI 4.9 – 9.4), and the probability of survival at 6 and 12 months was 52% and 27% respectively. Conclusions: With the caveat of a small sample size and a potential selection bias, our multi-institution study shows that re-utilizing standard treatment options after regorafenib may be beneficial in select patients with mCRC including in patients with progression on identical therapy before regorafenib. Further retrospective and prospective studies could be warranted to define the role of regorafenib as a chemotherapy re-sensitizing agent.

Abstract Purpose: Clustering of breast and colorectal cancer has been observed within families in population-based studies giving rise to speculation that there are “breast-colon” cancer susceptibility genes. We performed a genome-wide association study (GWAS) to identify genetic markers associated with a potential breast-colon cancer phenotype. Methods: Cases and controls were ascertained from the Breast and Colon Cancer Family Registries’ (CFR) GWAS subjects. “Breast-colon phenotype” definition was based on 2 or more breast and colon cancer cases diagnosed in first- or second-degree relatives within a family. Cases (n = 985) were women with a history of breast cancer and a family history of colorectal cancer, or persons with colorectal cancer with a family history of breast cancer. Unrelated controls (n = 1769) were frequency matched to cases for age and gender. Following standard quality control measures, 6,220,060 directly measured and imputed single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were included in the discovery set. SNPs associated at p&lt;1×10−5 were analyzed in a replication dataset of cases (n = 293) and controls (n = 2103) from the Genetics and Epidemiology of Colorectal Cancer Consortium. Results: In a regression model that included gender, age, CFR center and 6 principal components, the top association in the discovery set was in the chromosome 8q22.3 region overlying the BAALC gene (top SNP rs12548629, P = 3.63×10−7). In the replication dataset, of 341 SNPs tested, the top signal was found in multiple correlated SNPs overlying the ROBO1 gene on chromosome 3p12 (rs7429100, P = 2.8×10−3), however, the signal on chromosome 8, the BAALC gene did not replicate. In the discovery set, P values for the SNPs overlaying ROBO1 gene ranged from 2.2×10−5 to 9.7×10−5 (rs7429100, P = 3.9×10−5). The combined meta-analysis showed strongest association at the ROBO1 gene (rs7429100, Pfixed effects 1.84×10−6, Pheterogeneity &gt;0.05 for testing for heterogeneity between the overall discovery set and the replication set). ROBO1 (roundabout, axon guidance receptor, homolog 1) is a transmembrane receptor of the immunoglobulin family and is differentially expressed in human cancers, with a possible role as a tumor suppressor gene. Low ROBO1 expression has been shown to be an adverse prognostic factor for invasive ductal breast cancer and may also play a role in pathogenesis of colorectal cancer. BAALC (brain and acute leukemia, cytoplasmic) is predominantly expressed by neural and blood cells and is largely implicated in acute leukemia. Conclusion: In this exploratory analysis, to elucidate genes/regions associated with pleiotropic effect for breast and colorectal cancer risk we identified germline variation in the region of ROBO1 and BAALC. Validation in a larger dataset and functional characterization of the loci is warranted to elucidate mechanisms by which these genes/SNPs may contribute to the development of breast and colorectal cancer. Citation Format: Mala Pande, Aron Joon, Sanjay Shete, Abenaa M. Brewster, Cathy Eng, Wei V. Chen, Habibul Ahsan, Irene L. Andrulis, Esther M. John, Yi Lin, Polly A. Newcomb, Noralane M. Lindor, Christopher I. Amos, John Hopper, Patrick M. Lynch. Risk loci for a breast-colon cancer phenotype: results from a genome-wide association study. [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 106th Annual Meeting of the American Association for Cancer Research; 2015 Apr 18-22; Philadelphia, PA. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2015;75(15 Suppl):Abstract nr 2782. doi:10.1158/1538-7445.AM2015-2782

Purpose This study addressed whether age is prognostic for overall survival (OS) or progression-free survival (PFS) in patients with metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC). Patients and Methods A total of 20,023 patients from 24 first-line clinical trials in the ARCAD (Aide et Recherche en Cancérologie Digestive) database were analyzed. Primary age effects and interactions with age, sex, performance status (PS), and metastatic site were modeled using Cox proportional hazards stratified by treatment arm within study. Results Of total patients, 3,051 (15%) were age ≤ 50 years. Age was prognostic for both OS (P < .001) and PFS (P < .001), with U-shaped risk (ie, highest risk was evident in youngest and oldest patients). Relative to patients of middle age, the youngest patients experienced 19% (95% CI, 7% to 33%) increased risk of death and 22% (95% CI, 10% to 35%) increased risk of progression. The oldest patients experienced 42% (95% CI, 31% to 54%) increased risk of death and 15% (95% CI, 7% to 24%) increased risk of progression or death. This relationship was more pronounced in the first year of follow-up. Age remained marginally significant for OS (P = .08) when adjusted for PS, sex, and presence of liver, lung, or peritoneal metastases, and age was significant in an adjusted model for PFS (P = .005). The age effect did not differ by site of metastatic disease, year of enrollment, type of therapy received, or biomarker mutational status. Conclusion Younger and older age are associated with poorer OS and PFS among treated patients with mCRC. Younger and older patients may represent higher-risk populations, and additional studies are warranted.

Purpose Fluorouracil/leucovorin as the sole therapy for metastatic colorectal cancer (CRC) provides an overall survival of 8 to 12 months. With an increase in surgical resections of metastatic disease and development of new chemotherapies, indirect evidence suggests that outcomes for patients are improving in the general population, although the incremental gain has not yet been quantified. Methods We performed a retrospective review of patients newly diagnosed with metastatic CRC treated at two academic centers from 1990 through 2006. Landmark analysis evaluated the association of diagnosis year and liver resection with overall survival. Additional survival analysis of the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database evaluated a similar population from 1990 through 2005. Results Two thousand four hundred seventy patients with metastatic CRC at diagnosis received their primary treatment at the two institutions during this time period. Median overall survival for those patients diagnosed from 1990 to 1997 was 14.2 months, which increased to 18.0, 18.6, and 29.3 months for patients diagnosed in 1998 to 2000, 2001 to 2003, and 2004 to 2006, respectively. Likewise, 5-year overall survival increased from 9.1% in the earliest time period to 19.2% in 2001 to 2003. Improved outcomes from 1998 to 2004 were a result of an increase in hepatic resection, which was performed in 20% of the patients. Improvements from 2004 to 2006 were temporally associated with increased utilization of new chemotherapeutics. In the SEER registry, overall survival for the 49,459 identified patients also increased in the most recent time period. Conclusion Profound improvements in outcome in metastatic CRC seem to be associated with the sequential increase in the use of hepatic resection in selected patients (1998 to 2006) and advancements in medical therapy (2004 to 2006).