Khan, Atlas

Background: Susceptibility to cardiometabolic diseases (CDs) is shaped by genetic, socio-environmental, and lifestyle factors. We evaluated the associations of disease-specific polysocial risk scores (PSSs)— derived from social determinants of health (SDOH) and lifestyle factors—and genetic risk factors with six CDs, across self-identified race/ethnicity (SIRE) groups in the eMERGE IV cohort. Methods: The six CDs included: atrial fibrillation, coronary heart disease, chronic kidney disease, hyperlipidemia, obesity, and type 2 diabetes. Disease-specific PSSs were developed using machine-learning models based on 65 SDOH and lifestyle factors. Participants were grouped based on their SIRE as Asian, Black, Hispanic/Latino, and White. We evaluated PSS distributions across SIRE groups. Genetic risk was assessed through disease-specific polygenic risk scores (PRSs), monogenic etiologies, and family history (FamHx). High PSS and high PRS were defined as the top 5th percentile. Associations were tested using multivariable logistic regression; model performance was assessed using the C-statistic. Results: Among 20178 participants (50±15 years, 68% female, 40% non-White), the most frequently associated PSS components were physical activity, sleep, self-perceived health, and income. PSS distributions varied across SIRE groups, with Whites having the lowest and Black and Hispanic/Latinos the highest scores for most CDs (Figure 1). All PSSs were significantly associated with their respective CDs, independent of confounders (OR per 1 SD increase: 1.19–2.68; Figure 2-A). No significant interactions were observed between PSSs and PRSs or monogenic etiologies. However, significant interactions were noted between PSSs and FamHx for CKD and obesity. PSS and PRS effects on the odds of CDs were independent (Figure 2-B) and additive (Figure 2-C). Incorporating PSSs into models that included clinical and genetic risk factors improved predictive performance of risk prediction models (Figure 3). Conclusion: PSSs, reflecting socio-environmental and lifestyle disadvantage, varied significantly across SIRE groups and were associated with risk of six CDs, independent of and additive to PRS. Given the substantial variation in socio-environmental and lifestyle risks across SIRE groups, integrating these factors into risk prediction models for CDs may help address health disparities and enhance preventive efforts, especially in marginalized populations.

Background: We investigated the impact of genetic risk factors for coronary heart disease (CHD) -polygenic risk score (PRS), familial hypercholesterolemia (FH), and family history (FamHx)- on CHD risk estimates, across the age spectrum, in two diverse cohorts of US adults -eMERGE IV (eIV) and All of Us (AoU). Methods: CHD was defined as myocardial infarction, unstable angina, and coronary revascularization. Self-identified race/ethnicity (SIRE) was used as a population descriptor. We calculated a PRS for CHD (PRS CHD , PGS004698), ascertained FH as the presence of pathogenic/likely pathogenic variants in FH genes, and defined FamHx as early-onset CHD in first-degree relatives. We employed Pooled Cohort Equations (PCE) to estimate the 10y risk of CHD for adults ≥40y and modeled the association of conventional risk factors with CHD in adults <40y. AoU served as the training set, and eIV as the testing set. We analyzed the impact of PRS CHD and FamHx on CHD risk estimates by a) using multivariable logistic regression and Cox proportional hazard models, assessing discrimination and the extent of risk reclassification; and b) net benefit analysis and decision curves to assess the performance of prediction models across actionable thresholds. Results: We analyzed data for 19348 participants from eIV (age 50±15, 68% female, 41% non-White) and 239645 participants from AoU (age 55±17, 61% female, 48% non-White). Genetic risk factors were significantly associated with CHD. PRS CHD performance varied by SIRE groups, while FamHx was consistent. The effects of PRS CHD and FamHx on CHD were independent and additive (Figure 1). In adults ≥40y, incorporating PRS CHD and FamHx into PCE improved discrimination (C-statistic increased from 0.719 to 0.753; P -diff=9.1×10 -3 , Figure 2) and reclassified risk in 19% and 20% of participants at the 7.5% and 10% 10y CHD risk thresholds, respectively. Between the 7.5% and 10% 10y CHD risk thresholds, incorporating PRS CHD and FamHx into the PCE improved the net benefit of the risk prediction models across White, Black, and Hispanic/Latino groups (Figure 3). Conclusion: PRS CHD and FamHx were independently and additively associated with CHD in two large diverse cohorts in the US. Incorporating PRS CHD and FamHx into PCE improved risk discrimination, reclassified risk in a significant portion of participants, and improved net benefit of the PCE across all three major SIRE groups, motivating the addition of these factors to clinical risk calculators.

Apart from ancestry, personal or environmental covariates may contribute to differences in polygenic score (PGS) performance. We analyzed the effects of covariate stratification and interaction on body mass index (BMI) PGS (PGS BMI ) across four cohorts of European (N = 491,111) and African (N = 21,612) ancestry. Stratifying on binary covariates and quintiles for continuous covariates, 18/62 covariates had significant and replicable R 2 differences among strata. Covariates with the largest differences included age, sex, blood lipids, physical activity, and alcohol consumption, with R 2 being nearly double between best- and worst-performing quintiles for certain covariates. Twenty-eight covariates had significant PGS BMI –covariate interaction effects, modifying PGS BMI effects by nearly 20% per standard deviation change. We observed overlap between covariates that had significant R 2 differences among strata and interaction effects – across all covariates, their main effects on BMI were correlated with their maximum R 2 differences and interaction effects (0.56 and 0.58, respectively), suggesting high-PGS BMI individuals have highest R 2 and increase in PGS effect. Using quantile regression, we show the effect of PGS BMI increases as BMI itself increases, and that these differences in effects are directly related to differences in R 2 when stratifying by different covariates. Given significant and replicable evidence for context-specific PGS BMI performance and effects, we investigated ways to increase model performance taking into account nonlinear effects. Machine learning models (neural networks) increased relative model R 2 (mean 23%) across datasets. Finally, creating PGS BMI directly from GxAge genome-wide association studies effects increased relative R 2 by 7.8%. These results demonstrate that certain covariates, especially those most associated with BMI, significantly affect both PGS BMI performance and effects across diverse cohorts and ancestries, and we provide avenues to improve model performance that consider these effects.

Background: Heart failure (HF) is a complex trait influenced by environmental and genetic factors. Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have found common genetic variants associated with HF risk, but the extent that common and rare variants explain risk and implicate similar genes and pathways in HF remains less understood. Methods: For common variants, we meta-analyze existing GWAS of all-cause HF with data from the Million Veteran Program, including 207,346 individuals with HF and 2,151,210 without in diverse populations. We examine rare coding variants in the Penn Medicine BioBank (PMBB) using gene-collapsing association studies and burden heritability regression. We test for an interaction between a polygenic risk score (PRS) based on our GWAS meta-analysis and truncating variants in TTN (TTNtv). Results: GWAS meta-analysis identified 176 risk loci (146 previously unreported), implicating known risk factors for HF and genes involved in cardiac development. New signals at GIPR/ GLP1R highlight potential contributions of dysregulated glucose homeostasis and metabolism in HF. Gene collapsing studies identified associations between HF and rare loss-of-function variants in TTN (OR 2.94, 95% CI 2.43-3.56) and MYBPC3 (OR 7.71, 95% CI 3.97-14.97) at exome-wide significance. HF heritability mediated through common variants (4.5%) was significantly higher than for rare variants (1.8%), but rare variant heritability was further enriched in cardiomyopathy genes compared to common variants (27-fold vs. 3.4-fold). We found a significant interaction between a new multi-ancestry HF-associated PRS (AUC 0.72, 95% CI 0.72-0.73) and TTNtv carrier status (interaction OR 1.32, 95% CI 1.06-1.64). Conclusions: Common and rare variants contribute to HF heritability. Common variant HF heritability is highly polygenic, while rare variant burden heritability appears more concentrated in core cardiomyopathy genes. HF risk conferred by TTNtv carrier status is further increased by an individual’s polygenic contribution. Our results support the continued inclusion of cardiomyopathy genes in rare-variant genetic testing panels for HF but suggest a meaningful polygenic component to HF exists that is not currently captured by clinical genetic testing.

Apart from ancestry, personal or environmental covariates may contribute to differences in polygenic score (PGS) performance. We analyzed the effects of covariate stratification and interaction on body mass index (BMI) PGS (PGS BMI ) across four cohorts of European (N = 491,111) and African (N = 21,612) ancestry. Stratifying on binary covariates and quintiles for continuous covariates, 18/62 covariates had significant and replicable R 2 differences among strata. Covariates with the largest differences included age, sex, blood lipids, physical activity, and alcohol consumption, with R 2 being nearly double between best- and worst-performing quintiles for certain covariates. Twenty-eight covariates had significant PGS BMI –covariate interaction effects, modifying PGS BMI effects by nearly 20% per standard deviation change. We observed overlap between covariates that had significant R 2 differences among strata and interaction effects – across all covariates, their main effects on BMI were correlated with their maximum R 2 differences and interaction effects (0.56 and 0.58, respectively), suggesting high-PGS BMI individuals have highest R 2 and increase in PGS effect. Using quantile regression, we show the effect of PGS BMI increases as BMI itself increases, and that these differences in effects are directly related to differences in R 2 when stratifying by different covariates. Given significant and replicable evidence for context-specific PGS BMI performance and effects, we investigated ways to increase model performance taking into account nonlinear effects. Machine learning models (neural networks) increased relative model R 2 (mean 23%) across datasets. Finally, creating PGS BMI directly from GxAge genome-wide association studies effects increased relative R 2 by 7.8%. These results demonstrate that certain covariates, especially those most associated with BMI, significantly affect both PGS BMI performance and effects across diverse cohorts and ancestries, and we provide avenues to improve model performance that consider these effects.

Abstract Importance Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a genetically complex disease determined by an interplay of monogenic, polygenic, and environmental risks. The most common forms of monogenic kidney disorders include autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD), caused by mutations in the PKD1 or PKD2 genes, and COL4A-associated nephropathy (COL4A-AN), caused by mutations in COL4A3, COL4A4, or COL4A5 genes. These disorders have incomplete penetrance and variable expressivity. It is presently unknown if some of the variability in penetrance can be attributed to polygenic factors. Objective Our objectives were to investigate the interplay of polygenic and monogenic risk of kidney disease and to test the utility of polygenic risk scores for risk stratification in ADPKD and COL4-AN. Design We combined exome/genome sequencing, SNP micro-array, and electronic health record data from the UK Biobank (N = 469,835 participants) and the All of Us (N = 98,622 participants) datasets to test the effects of the genome-wide polygenic score (GPS) for CKD in ADPKD and COL4-AN variant carriers defined by strict variant classification criteria. We used the eMERGE-III electronic CKD phenotype to define cases (estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) < 60 mL/min/1.73m2 or kidney failure) and controls (eGFR > 90 mL/min/1.73m2 in the absence of kidney disease diagnoses). The GPS was tested as a predictor of CKD in qualifying variant carriers and non-carriers using logistic regression after adjustment for age, sex, diabetes, and genetic ancestry. Results The GPS was predictive of CKD in ADPKD variant carriers (ORmeta=2.28 per SD, 95%CI: 1.55–3.37, P = 2.6E-05) as well as non-carriers (ORmeta=1.72 per SD, 95% CI = 1.69–1.76, P < E-300) independent of age, sex, diabetes, and genetic ancestry. Compared to the middle tertile of the GPS distribution for non-carriers, ADPKD variant carriers in the top tertile had a 54-fold increased risk of CKD, while ADPKD variant carriers in the bottom tertile had only a 3-fold increased risk of CKD. Similarly, the GPS was predictive of CKD in both COL4-AN carriers (ORmeta=1.78, 95% CI = 1.22–2.58, P = 2.38E-03) and non-carriers (ORmeta=1.70, 95%CI: 1.68–1.73 P < E-300). The carriers in the top GPS tertile had a 2.5-fold higher risk of CKD while the risk for carriers in the bottom GPS tertile was not different from the average population risk. Conclusions and Relevance Variable penetrance of kidney disease in ADPKD and COL4-AN is partially explained by the differences in polygenic risk profiles. Accounting for polygenic factors improves risk stratification in monogenic kidney disease and may have clinical implications for genetic counseling.