Puckelwartz, Megan J.

Background: We investigated the impact of genetic risk factors for coronary heart disease (CHD) -polygenic risk score (PRS), familial hypercholesterolemia (FH), and family history (FamHx)- on CHD risk estimates, across the age spectrum, in two diverse cohorts of US adults -eMERGE IV (eIV) and All of Us (AoU). Methods: CHD was defined as myocardial infarction, unstable angina, and coronary revascularization. Self-identified race/ethnicity (SIRE) was used as a population descriptor. We calculated a PRS for CHD (PRS CHD , PGS004698), ascertained FH as the presence of pathogenic/likely pathogenic variants in FH genes, and defined FamHx as early-onset CHD in first-degree relatives. We employed Pooled Cohort Equations (PCE) to estimate the 10y risk of CHD for adults ≥40y and modeled the association of conventional risk factors with CHD in adults <40y. AoU served as the training set, and eIV as the testing set. We analyzed the impact of PRS CHD and FamHx on CHD risk estimates by a) using multivariable logistic regression and Cox proportional hazard models, assessing discrimination and the extent of risk reclassification; and b) net benefit analysis and decision curves to assess the performance of prediction models across actionable thresholds. Results: We analyzed data for 19348 participants from eIV (age 50±15, 68% female, 41% non-White) and 239645 participants from AoU (age 55±17, 61% female, 48% non-White). Genetic risk factors were significantly associated with CHD. PRS CHD performance varied by SIRE groups, while FamHx was consistent. The effects of PRS CHD and FamHx on CHD were independent and additive (Figure 1). In adults ≥40y, incorporating PRS CHD and FamHx into PCE improved discrimination (C-statistic increased from 0.719 to 0.753; P -diff=9.1×10 -3 , Figure 2) and reclassified risk in 19% and 20% of participants at the 7.5% and 10% 10y CHD risk thresholds, respectively. Between the 7.5% and 10% 10y CHD risk thresholds, incorporating PRS CHD and FamHx into the PCE improved the net benefit of the risk prediction models across White, Black, and Hispanic/Latino groups (Figure 3). Conclusion: PRS CHD and FamHx were independently and additively associated with CHD in two large diverse cohorts in the US. Incorporating PRS CHD and FamHx into PCE improved risk discrimination, reclassified risk in a significant portion of participants, and improved net benefit of the PCE across all three major SIRE groups, motivating the addition of these factors to clinical risk calculators.

Apart from ancestry, personal or environmental covariates may contribute to differences in polygenic score (PGS) performance. We analyzed the effects of covariate stratification and interaction on body mass index (BMI) PGS (PGS BMI ) across four cohorts of European (N = 491,111) and African (N = 21,612) ancestry. Stratifying on binary covariates and quintiles for continuous covariates, 18/62 covariates had significant and replicable R 2 differences among strata. Covariates with the largest differences included age, sex, blood lipids, physical activity, and alcohol consumption, with R 2 being nearly double between best- and worst-performing quintiles for certain covariates. Twenty-eight covariates had significant PGS BMI –covariate interaction effects, modifying PGS BMI effects by nearly 20% per standard deviation change. We observed overlap between covariates that had significant R 2 differences among strata and interaction effects – across all covariates, their main effects on BMI were correlated with their maximum R 2 differences and interaction effects (0.56 and 0.58, respectively), suggesting high-PGS BMI individuals have highest R 2 and increase in PGS effect. Using quantile regression, we show the effect of PGS BMI increases as BMI itself increases, and that these differences in effects are directly related to differences in R 2 when stratifying by different covariates. Given significant and replicable evidence for context-specific PGS BMI performance and effects, we investigated ways to increase model performance taking into account nonlinear effects. Machine learning models (neural networks) increased relative model R 2 (mean 23%) across datasets. Finally, creating PGS BMI directly from GxAge genome-wide association studies effects increased relative R 2 by 7.8%. These results demonstrate that certain covariates, especially those most associated with BMI, significantly affect both PGS BMI performance and effects across diverse cohorts and ancestries, and we provide avenues to improve model performance that consider these effects.

BACKGROUND: Greater left atrial size is associated with a higher incidence of cardiovascular disease and mortality, but the full spectrum of diagnoses associated with left atrial enlargement in sex-stratified clinical populations is not well known. Our study sought to identify genetic risk mechanisms affecting left atrial diameter (LAD) in a clinical cohort. METHODS: Using Vanderbilt deidentified electronic health record, we studied 6163 females and 5993 males of European ancestry who had at least 1 LAD measure and available genotyping. A sex-stratified polygenic score was constructed for LAD variation and tested for association against 1680 International Classification of Diseases code–based phenotypes. Two-sample univariable and multivariable Mendelian randomization approaches were used to assess etiologic relationships between candidate associations and LAD. RESULTS: A phenome-wide association study identified 25 International Classification of Diseases code–based diagnoses in females and 11 in males associated with a polygenic score of LAD (false discovery rate q<0.01), 5 of which were further evaluated by Mendelian randomization (waist circumference [WC], atrial fibrillation, heart failure, systolic blood pressure, and coronary artery disease). Sex-stratified differences in the genetic associations between risk factors and a polygenic score for LAD were observed (WC for females; heart failure, systolic blood pressure, atrial fibrillation, and WC for males). By multivariable Mendelian randomization, higher WC remained significantly associated with larger LAD in females, whereas coronary artery disease, WC, and atrial fibrillation remained significantly associated with larger LAD in males. CONCLUSIONS: In a clinical population, we identified, by genomic approaches, potential etiologic risk factors for larger LAD. Further studies are needed to confirm the extent to which these risk factors may be modified to prevent or reverse adverse left atrial remodeling and the extent to which sex modifies these risk factors.

Background: Heart failure (HF) is a complex trait influenced by environmental and genetic factors. Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have found common genetic variants associated with HF risk, but the extent that common and rare variants explain risk and implicate similar genes and pathways in HF remains less understood. Methods: For common variants, we meta-analyze existing GWAS of all-cause HF with data from the Million Veteran Program, including 207,346 individuals with HF and 2,151,210 without in diverse populations. We examine rare coding variants in the Penn Medicine BioBank (PMBB) using gene-collapsing association studies and burden heritability regression. We test for an interaction between a polygenic risk score (PRS) based on our GWAS meta-analysis and truncating variants in TTN (TTNtv). Results: GWAS meta-analysis identified 176 risk loci (146 previously unreported), implicating known risk factors for HF and genes involved in cardiac development. New signals at GIPR/ GLP1R highlight potential contributions of dysregulated glucose homeostasis and metabolism in HF. Gene collapsing studies identified associations between HF and rare loss-of-function variants in TTN (OR 2.94, 95% CI 2.43-3.56) and MYBPC3 (OR 7.71, 95% CI 3.97-14.97) at exome-wide significance. HF heritability mediated through common variants (4.5%) was significantly higher than for rare variants (1.8%), but rare variant heritability was further enriched in cardiomyopathy genes compared to common variants (27-fold vs. 3.4-fold). We found a significant interaction between a new multi-ancestry HF-associated PRS (AUC 0.72, 95% CI 0.72-0.73) and TTNtv carrier status (interaction OR 1.32, 95% CI 1.06-1.64). Conclusions: Common and rare variants contribute to HF heritability. Common variant HF heritability is highly polygenic, while rare variant burden heritability appears more concentrated in core cardiomyopathy genes. HF risk conferred by TTNtv carrier status is further increased by an individual’s polygenic contribution. Our results support the continued inclusion of cardiomyopathy genes in rare-variant genetic testing panels for HF but suggest a meaningful polygenic component to HF exists that is not currently captured by clinical genetic testing.

Apart from ancestry, personal or environmental covariates may contribute to differences in polygenic score (PGS) performance. We analyzed the effects of covariate stratification and interaction on body mass index (BMI) PGS (PGS BMI ) across four cohorts of European (N = 491,111) and African (N = 21,612) ancestry. Stratifying on binary covariates and quintiles for continuous covariates, 18/62 covariates had significant and replicable R 2 differences among strata. Covariates with the largest differences included age, sex, blood lipids, physical activity, and alcohol consumption, with R 2 being nearly double between best- and worst-performing quintiles for certain covariates. Twenty-eight covariates had significant PGS BMI –covariate interaction effects, modifying PGS BMI effects by nearly 20% per standard deviation change. We observed overlap between covariates that had significant R 2 differences among strata and interaction effects – across all covariates, their main effects on BMI were correlated with their maximum R 2 differences and interaction effects (0.56 and 0.58, respectively), suggesting high-PGS BMI individuals have highest R 2 and increase in PGS effect. Using quantile regression, we show the effect of PGS BMI increases as BMI itself increases, and that these differences in effects are directly related to differences in R 2 when stratifying by different covariates. Given significant and replicable evidence for context-specific PGS BMI performance and effects, we investigated ways to increase model performance taking into account nonlinear effects. Machine learning models (neural networks) increased relative model R 2 (mean 23%) across datasets. Finally, creating PGS BMI directly from GxAge genome-wide association studies effects increased relative R 2 by 7.8%. These results demonstrate that certain covariates, especially those most associated with BMI, significantly affect both PGS BMI performance and effects across diverse cohorts and ancestries, and we provide avenues to improve model performance that consider these effects.