Díaz, Luis Antonio

ABSTRACT Background and Aim Significant health disparities persist in alcohol‐associated liver disease (ALD), largely driven by social determinants of health (SDOH). However, the influence of neighbourhood‐level SDOH on ALD outcomes remains underexplored. In this study, we aimed to evaluate how neighbourhood‐level SDOH are associated with disease burden, comorbid conditions, and mortality in individuals with ALD. Methods We conducted a retrospective cohort study of patients with ALD in the Banner Health System, representing hospitals across Arizona, California, Nevada, Wyoming and Colorado, from January 2012 to October 2024 using ICD codes. Neighbourhood‐level SDOH were quantified using the Social Deprivation Index (SDI). Patients were stratified into quartiles based on SDI score, with Quartile 4 representing the most socioeconomically disadvantaged neighbourhoods. Primary outcomes included incidence of mortality, cirrhosis, major adverse liver outcome (MALO), Type 2 diabetes mellitus, any cancer, and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE). A multivariable competing risk analysis was performed adjusting for age, sex, race/ethnicity, insurance type, primary language, smoking status, Type 2 diabetes mellitus, hypertension, hyperlipidemia, aspirin use, statin use, alcohol use disorder and a composite mental‐health/substance‐use disorder variable encompassing depression, anxiety disorders, post‐traumatic stress disorder, bipolar disorder, schizophrenia, and non‐alcohol substance use disorders. Results Among 11,394 patients with ALD and available SDI data, 6747 had ≥ 365 days of follow‐up. The average age was 51 years and 65.6% were female; 68.8% were non‐Hispanic White, 19.7% Hispanic, 5.9% Native American/Alaskan Native (NA), 3.2% Black, and 0.4% Asian/Pacific Islanders. Patients residing in the most disadvantaged neighbourhoods (Quartile 4) were significantly younger, more likely to be female, had a higher median BMI, and more frequently reported a non‐English primary language compared with those in the least disadvantaged areas (Quartile 1). Patients in the most deprived neighbourhoods were more likely to be Hispanic, Black, or Native American/Alaska Native and to be uninsured or on Medicaid, whereas those in the least disadvantaged neighbourhoods predominantly had private insurance. Individuals in Quartile 4 had increased mortality (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR]: 1.48, 95% Confidence Interval [CI]: 1.09–2.01) compared with individuals in Quartile 1. Conclusions In this large and demographically diverse ALD cohort, residing in socioeconomically disadvantaged neighbourhoods was associated with increased risk of mortality. These findings support the need for contextually tailored clinical interventions and broader treatment strategies that target upstream sociocultural and environmental factors that are associated with health outcomes. Addressing neighbourhood‐level SDOH through community engagement, policy reform, and cross‐sector partnerships to improve collaborative care efforts is needed to reduce health disparities in ALD.

Background: Noninvasive tests are well validated in metabolic dysfunction–associated steatotic liver disease, but evidence in metabolic dysfunction and alcohol-associated liver disease (MetALD) and alcohol-associated liver disease (ALD) is limited. We evaluated noninvasive test–based clinical care pathways for fibrosis risk stratification in MetALD and ALD. Methods: This is a multinational, multicenter, cross-sectional study across 35 centers in 16 countries (2013–2025), including adults with MetALD or ALD. Fibrosis was assessed by liver biopsy and/or vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE). In biopsy-proven participants, we analyzed the sequential pathway (Fibrosis-4 [FIB-4] first, followed by VCTE for indeterminate FIB-4) to identify advanced fibrosis (≥F3). Diagnostic accuracy was assessed using the AUC. Results: Among 893 participants (41.3% MetALD and 58.7% ALD), the median age was 52 [43.0–61.0] years, and 79.4% were male. The estimated prevalence of advanced fibrosis was 45% (32.2% in MetALD and 54.0% in ALD). Participants with MetALD had a more dysmetabolic profile but lower fibrosis stages than ALD. Among biopsy-proven participants, FIB-4 AUC was 0.720, and VCTE AUC was 0.833. FIB-4 performed better in MetALD than ALD (AUC 0.773 vs. 0.540), while VCTE accuracy was similar across groups. In the sequential pathways, the false-negative rate for advanced fibrosis (misclassified as low risk) was 6.8% (4.9% MetALD and 11.3% ALD). Conclusions: In biopsy-proven patients, FIB-4 performance was acceptable in MetALD but substantially weaker in ALD. The standard 2-step pathway performed adequately in MetALD but missed a clinically meaningful proportion of advanced fibrosis in ALD.

Introduction: Although the role of cardiometabolic risk factors (CMRF) has been characterized in steatotic liver disease, their role in the severity of alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH) remains unclear. We aimed to evaluate the impact of CMRF on mortality. Methods: Multinational prospective cohort study (2015–2024) including hospitalized patients with severe AH across 32 centers in 14 countries. Diagnosis of AH was made using the NIAAA criteria. Analyses included adjusted competing-risk models by age, sex, ethnicity, history of cirrhosis, CMRF, corticosteroid use, MELD, and ACLF grade, with liver transplantation as a competing risk. Results: 936 participants were included; mean age 48±11.2 years, and 88.9% were male. At least one CMRF was present in 46.6%; median body mass index (BMI) was 24.2 kg/m 2 [IQR: 22.8–28.2], prevalence of diabetes 17.6%, hypertension 16.5%, and dyslipidemia 5.8%. Median MELD was 24.4 [19.3–31.4], 86.7% had severe AH, and 180-day survival was 72.9%. Survival did not differ by CMRF status (log-rank p =0.453). In adjusted competing-risk models, higher age (sHR 1.02; 95%CI:1.01–1.04), greater alcohol intake (per g/day; sHR 1.001; 95%CI:1.000–1.002), MELD (sHR 1.04; 95%CI:1.01–1.06), and ACLF grade 2–3 (sHR 2.34 and 4.34) predicted mortality. However, no individual CMRF independently increased mortality. A prespecified non-linear BMI analysis showed modestly lower mortality between 25–40 kg/m², with a higher risk above 40 kg/m². Conclusion: Among patients with severe AH, metabolic dysfunction was not associated with increased mortality. Although a higher BMI was associated with slightly lower mortality in AH, this may reflect better nutritional status rather than a true protective effect.

ABSTRACT Background Metabolic dysfunction‐associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) exhibits marked heterogeneity in fibrosis progression and liver‐related outcomes. Liver biopsy is not feasible for longitudinal risk stratification at scale, creating a need for validated non‐invasive biomarkers, particularly imaging biomarkers, that can predict clinically meaningful disease progression and liver‐related outcomes. Aims To describe the design and rationale of the GOLDMINE study, established to determine whether non‐invasive imaging biomarkers predict MASLD progression and liver‐related clinical outcomes. Methods GOLDMINE is an investigator‐initiated, multi‐centre, international longitudinal cohort enrolling up to 1000 adults with either biopsy‐proven MASLD or MASLD cirrhosis across the full fibrosis spectrum. Participants are recruited from 15 sites in the US and 4 international sites (Japan, Singapore and France). At baseline, participants undergo clinical phenotyping, vibration‐controlled transient elastography, and advanced magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), including proton‐density‐fat‐fraction and magnetic resonance elastography (MRE). MRI (and biospecimen banking) is repeated at 2‐year intervals (years 2 and 4), with annual follow‐up visits for up to 10 years. Baseline liver histology is centrally processed, digitized and reviewed by a single expert hepatopathologist; all MRI/MREs are centrally interpreted. Results The prespecified clinical outcomes include progression to cirrhosis, clinically significant portal hypertension, major adverse liver‐related outcomes (ascites, hepatic encephalopathy, portal hypertensive bleeding, liver transplantation/qualification), hepatocellular carcinoma, major adverse cardiovascular events, and all‐cause mortality, with independent central adjudication of all events. Conclusions GOLDMINE establishes a rigorously phenotyped MASLD cohort integrating centralized histology, advanced MRI‐based biomarkers, longitudinal biobanking, and adjudicated outcomes, providing a platform to validate imaging and blood‐based prognostic biomarkers in MASLD.

Abstract Background & Aims: Alcohol is a leading global risk factor, over 200 diseases and injuries, but policy adoption varies. We updated the Alcohol Preparedness Index (API) to track global and regional policy trends from 2010–2019. Methods: Using WHO GISAH data for 141 countries, we scored five domains (policy frameworks; production/pricing/taxation; marketing/availability; drink-driving; monitoring/surveillance). The primary endpoint was % change in API. Trends were summarized by WHO region and correlates tested in adjusted regression. Results: In 2019, <25% of countries had a strong national alcohol plan and 40% had none. Production/pricing/taxation increased most (27%→78%); monitoring/surveillance reached strong levels in 47.5%. Median API increased from 57.0 [39.0–82.0] (2010) to 74.8 [58.3–83.5] (2016) and stayed above baseline in 2019 (67.8 [51.2–83.8]). Larger population predicted less API gain (β=−19.1, p<0.05); HDI and per-capita consumption did not. Conclusions: Global alcohol policy preparedness increased from 2010–2019.

Importance Metabolic dysfunction–associated steatohepatitis (MASH) represents a high, underprioritized burden among noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) and people living with type 2 diabetes (T2D). Objective To identify cost-effective management approaches to prevent, detect, and treat MASH and liver fibrosis in people living with T2D. Design, Setting, and Participants This economic evaluation consisted of a generalized cost-effectiveness analysis (GCEA) that was conducted for 12 countries (Brazil, Chile, Germany, Italy, Japan, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Tanzania, Thailand, and the United States), across all 6 World Health Organization (WHO) regions. A cohort state-transition model simulated liver disease development and its impact on a synthetic cohort, aged 19 years and older and living with T2D, over their lifespan across 10 liver health states. Exposures Using an 80% coverage level, 14 management approaches were compared, including screening via the Fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) test and Enhanced Liver Fibrosis (ELF) test or vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE) as well as treatment with pharmacological and nonpharmacological interventions. Main Outcomes and Measures The main outcomes were the average cost-effectiveness ratios (ACERs) and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs), which were used to construct care expansion paths by ranking the management approaches in order of cost-effectiveness. The main measures were the total incremental costs and the total incremental quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) of each intervention. Results In this GCEA, the outcomes were evaluated with respect to country-specific willingness-to-pay thresholds. The standard of care had the lowest ACERs in 8 countries (not in Chile, Germany, Saudi Arabia, or the United States). Treatment with intensive lifestyle interventions (ILIs), after screening via ELF or VCTE, was cost-effective in all countries. ILIs and treatment with semaglutide was cost-effective in 11 countries (not in Tanzania); ILIs and treatment with resmetirom was cost-effective in 8 countries (not in Brazil, South Africa, Tanzania, or Thailand). Conclusion and Relevance In this economic evaluation, screening followed by ILIs was found to be a cost-effective management approach for MASH and liver fibrosis among people living with T2D in all countries. Screening followed by pharmacological treatment was cost-effective in most countries. These results can inform health policy decision-making and further the development of WHO recommended interventions to address NCDs.

Background Severe alcohol-associated hepatitis (sAH) is a life-threatening condition with high mortality, where corticosteroid use is the only treatment that has shown short-term benefits. Pentoxifylline, an anti-tumour necrosis factor-alpha agent, has been proposed for its potential to improve outcomes, especially in patients with acute kidney injury (AKI). We aimed to evaluate the impact of pentoxifylline on mortality in patients with sAH and AKI in a well-characterised global cohort. Methods We conducted a retrospective, registry-based study including patients meeting the National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism clinical criteria for sAH and AKI. Mortality was the primary endpoint, with liver transplantation as a competing risk. Statistical analysis included Cox regression and Kaplan-Meier survival estimates. Results We included 525 patients from 20 centres across eight countries. The median age was 48 years, with 26.1% females, and 76.9% had a history of cirrhosis. Multivariable Cox regression models showed that pentoxifylline use was not associated with survival (HR 1.20, 95% CI 0.85 to 1.69, p=0.291). Factors associated with mortality included age (HR 1.23, 95% CI 1.10 to 1.36, p<0.001), Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score at admission (HR 1.06, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.08, p<0.001) and renal replacement therapy use (HR 1.39, 95% CI 1.05 to 1.84, p=0.019). The main causes of death were multiple organ failure (42%), infections (10%), oesophageal varices bleeding (7%) and renal failure (6%). Conclusion Pentoxifylline showed no significant benefit on mortality in patients with sAH and AKI. Further studies are needed to refine treatment strategies for this high-risk group.

INTRODUCTION: The recent US Food and Drug Administration approval of resmetirom for treating metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis in patients necessitates patient selection for significant fibrosis or higher (≥F2). No existing vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE) algorithm targets ≥F2. METHODS: The mAchine Learning ADvanceD fibrosis and rIsk metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis Novel predictor (ALADDIN) study addressed this gap by introducing a machine-learning-based web calculator that estimates the likelihood of significant fibrosis using routine laboratory parameters with and without VCTE. Our study included a training set of 827 patients, a testing set of 504 patients with biopsy-confirmed metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease from 6 centers, and an external validation set of 1,299 patients from 9 centers. Five algorithms were compared using area under the curve (AUC) in the test set: ElasticNet, random forest, gradient boosting machines, XGBoost, and neural networks. The top 3 (random forest, gradient boosting machines, and XGBoost) formed an ensemble model. RESULTS: In the external validation set, the ALADDIN-F2-VCTE model, using routine laboratory parameters with VCTE (AUC 0.791, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.764–0.819), outperformed VCTE alone (0.745, 95% CI 0.717–0.772, P < 0.0001), FibroScan-aspartate aminotransferase (0.710, 0.679–0.748, P < 0.0001), and Agile-3 model (0.740, 0.710–0.770, P < 0.0001) regarding the AUC, decision curve analysis, and calibration. The ALADDIN-F2-Lab model, using routine laboratory parameters without VCTE, achieved an AUC of 0.706 (95% CI: 0.668–0.749) and outperformed Fibrosis-4, steatosis-associated fibrosis estimator, and LiverRisk scores. DISCUSSION: Along with the steatosis-associated fibrosis estimator model developed to target significant fibrosis or higher, ALADDIN-F2-VCTE (https://aihepatology.shinyapps.io/ALADDIN1) uniquely supports a refined noninvasive approach to patient selection for resmetirom without the need for liver biopsy. In addition, ALADDIN-F2-Lab (https://aihepatology.shinyapps.io/ALADDIN2) offers an effective alternative when VCTE is unavailable.

Background: Severe alcohol-associated hepatitis (sAH) is a well-characterized disease with high short-term mortality. However, there is limited research on those with a “less severe condition” (moderate AH). This study aims to characterize in-depth patients with moderate AH (mAH), including the performance of mortality scoring systems, key prognostic factors, and survival over time. Methods: A multicenter retrospective cohort study (2009–2019) included patients with mAH (MELD score ≤20 at admission). Cox regression and receiver operating characteristic curves with AUC were used for analysis. Results: We included 1845 patients with AH (20 centers, 8 countries) between 2009 and 2019. mAH was defined as a MELD score ≤20 at admission. Twenty-four percent met the criteria for an mAH episode. Patients with mAH tend to be older and have a higher proportion of females, with a median MELD of 17 (15–19), Maddrey discriminant function (mDF) of 33 (22–40), the trajectory of serum bilirubin of 0.83 (0.60–1.21), and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) of 5 (2.96–8.60). The primary causes of death in mAH included multiple organ failure (34.1%) and infections (16.6%). The cumulative survival rates at 30, 90, and 180 days were 94.3%, 90.4%, and 88.2%, respectively. In multivariable analysis, age was the only significant predictor of 30-day mortality (HR 1.49, 95% CI: 1.27–1.76, p <0.001). Mortality prediction models showed poor performance, with AUC for MELD (0.671), mDF (0.726), trajectory of serum bilirubin (0.733), and NLR (0.697). Conclusions: Patients with moderate AH exhibited a mortality of 11.8% at 6 months, primarily driven by multiple organ failure and infections. These patients also exhibit a different clinical profile compared to those with sAH. Tailored models and therapeutic strategies are needed to improve long-term outcomes in mAH.

ABSTRACTSeveral dynamic models predict mortality and corticosteroid response in alcohol‐associated hepatitis (AH), yet no consensus exists on the most effective model. This study aimed to assess predictive models for corticosteroid response and short‐term mortality in severe AH within a global cohort. We conducted a multi‐national study of patients with severe AH treated with corticosteroids for at least 7 days, enrolled between 2009 and 2019. Dynamic models—Lille‐4, Lille‐7, trajectory of serum bilirubin (TSB), and neutrophil‐to‐lymphocyte ratio (NLR)—were used to estimate 30‐ and 90‐day mortality. Lille‐7 demonstrated the highest accuracy for both 30‐ and 90‐day mortality.