Singal, Ashwani K

Introduction: Although the role of cardiometabolic risk factors (CMRF) has been characterized in steatotic liver disease, their role in the severity of alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH) remains unclear. We aimed to evaluate the impact of CMRF on mortality. Methods: Multinational prospective cohort study (2015–2024) including hospitalized patients with severe AH across 32 centers in 14 countries. Diagnosis of AH was made using the NIAAA criteria. Analyses included adjusted competing-risk models by age, sex, ethnicity, history of cirrhosis, CMRF, corticosteroid use, MELD, and ACLF grade, with liver transplantation as a competing risk. Results: 936 participants were included; mean age 48±11.2 years, and 88.9% were male. At least one CMRF was present in 46.6%; median body mass index (BMI) was 24.2 kg/m 2 [IQR: 22.8–28.2], prevalence of diabetes 17.6%, hypertension 16.5%, and dyslipidemia 5.8%. Median MELD was 24.4 [19.3–31.4], 86.7% had severe AH, and 180-day survival was 72.9%. Survival did not differ by CMRF status (log-rank p =0.453). In adjusted competing-risk models, higher age (sHR 1.02; 95%CI:1.01–1.04), greater alcohol intake (per g/day; sHR 1.001; 95%CI:1.000–1.002), MELD (sHR 1.04; 95%CI:1.01–1.06), and ACLF grade 2–3 (sHR 2.34 and 4.34) predicted mortality. However, no individual CMRF independently increased mortality. A prespecified non-linear BMI analysis showed modestly lower mortality between 25–40 kg/m², with a higher risk above 40 kg/m². Conclusion: Among patients with severe AH, metabolic dysfunction was not associated with increased mortality. Although a higher BMI was associated with slightly lower mortality in AH, this may reflect better nutritional status rather than a true protective effect.

Abstract Background & Aims: Alcohol is a leading global risk factor, over 200 diseases and injuries, but policy adoption varies. We updated the Alcohol Preparedness Index (API) to track global and regional policy trends from 2010–2019. Methods: Using WHO GISAH data for 141 countries, we scored five domains (policy frameworks; production/pricing/taxation; marketing/availability; drink-driving; monitoring/surveillance). The primary endpoint was % change in API. Trends were summarized by WHO region and correlates tested in adjusted regression. Results: In 2019, <25% of countries had a strong national alcohol plan and 40% had none. Production/pricing/taxation increased most (27%→78%); monitoring/surveillance reached strong levels in 47.5%. Median API increased from 57.0 [39.0–82.0] (2010) to 74.8 [58.3–83.5] (2016) and stayed above baseline in 2019 (67.8 [51.2–83.8]). Larger population predicted less API gain (β=−19.1, p<0.05); HDI and per-capita consumption did not. Conclusions: Global alcohol policy preparedness increased from 2010–2019.

INTRODUCTION: The recent US Food and Drug Administration approval of resmetirom for treating metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis in patients necessitates patient selection for significant fibrosis or higher (≥F2). No existing vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE) algorithm targets ≥F2. METHODS: The mAchine Learning ADvanceD fibrosis and rIsk metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis Novel predictor (ALADDIN) study addressed this gap by introducing a machine-learning-based web calculator that estimates the likelihood of significant fibrosis using routine laboratory parameters with and without VCTE. Our study included a training set of 827 patients, a testing set of 504 patients with biopsy-confirmed metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease from 6 centers, and an external validation set of 1,299 patients from 9 centers. Five algorithms were compared using area under the curve (AUC) in the test set: ElasticNet, random forest, gradient boosting machines, XGBoost, and neural networks. The top 3 (random forest, gradient boosting machines, and XGBoost) formed an ensemble model. RESULTS: In the external validation set, the ALADDIN-F2-VCTE model, using routine laboratory parameters with VCTE (AUC 0.791, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.764–0.819), outperformed VCTE alone (0.745, 95% CI 0.717–0.772, P < 0.0001), FibroScan-aspartate aminotransferase (0.710, 0.679–0.748, P < 0.0001), and Agile-3 model (0.740, 0.710–0.770, P < 0.0001) regarding the AUC, decision curve analysis, and calibration. The ALADDIN-F2-Lab model, using routine laboratory parameters without VCTE, achieved an AUC of 0.706 (95% CI: 0.668–0.749) and outperformed Fibrosis-4, steatosis-associated fibrosis estimator, and LiverRisk scores. DISCUSSION: Along with the steatosis-associated fibrosis estimator model developed to target significant fibrosis or higher, ALADDIN-F2-VCTE (https://aihepatology.shinyapps.io/ALADDIN1) uniquely supports a refined noninvasive approach to patient selection for resmetirom without the need for liver biopsy. In addition, ALADDIN-F2-Lab (https://aihepatology.shinyapps.io/ALADDIN2) offers an effective alternative when VCTE is unavailable.

Background: Severe alcohol-associated hepatitis (sAH) is a well-characterized disease with high short-term mortality. However, there is limited research on those with a “less severe condition” (moderate AH). This study aims to characterize in-depth patients with moderate AH (mAH), including the performance of mortality scoring systems, key prognostic factors, and survival over time. Methods: A multicenter retrospective cohort study (2009–2019) included patients with mAH (MELD score ≤20 at admission). Cox regression and receiver operating characteristic curves with AUC were used for analysis. Results: We included 1845 patients with AH (20 centers, 8 countries) between 2009 and 2019. mAH was defined as a MELD score ≤20 at admission. Twenty-four percent met the criteria for an mAH episode. Patients with mAH tend to be older and have a higher proportion of females, with a median MELD of 17 (15–19), Maddrey discriminant function (mDF) of 33 (22–40), the trajectory of serum bilirubin of 0.83 (0.60–1.21), and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) of 5 (2.96–8.60). The primary causes of death in mAH included multiple organ failure (34.1%) and infections (16.6%). The cumulative survival rates at 30, 90, and 180 days were 94.3%, 90.4%, and 88.2%, respectively. In multivariable analysis, age was the only significant predictor of 30-day mortality (HR 1.49, 95% CI: 1.27–1.76, p <0.001). Mortality prediction models showed poor performance, with AUC for MELD (0.671), mDF (0.726), trajectory of serum bilirubin (0.733), and NLR (0.697). Conclusions: Patients with moderate AH exhibited a mortality of 11.8% at 6 months, primarily driven by multiple organ failure and infections. These patients also exhibit a different clinical profile compared to those with sAH. Tailored models and therapeutic strategies are needed to improve long-term outcomes in mAH.

ABSTRACTSeveral dynamic models predict mortality and corticosteroid response in alcohol‐associated hepatitis (AH), yet no consensus exists on the most effective model. This study aimed to assess predictive models for corticosteroid response and short‐term mortality in severe AH within a global cohort. We conducted a multi‐national study of patients with severe AH treated with corticosteroids for at least 7 days, enrolled between 2009 and 2019. Dynamic models—Lille‐4, Lille‐7, trajectory of serum bilirubin (TSB), and neutrophil‐to‐lymphocyte ratio (NLR)—were used to estimate 30‐ and 90‐day mortality. Lille‐7 demonstrated the highest accuracy for both 30‐ and 90‐day mortality.

Abstract Background Outcomes in alcohol‐associated liver disease (ALD) are influenced by several race and ethnic factors, yet its natural history across the continuum of patients in different stages of the disease is unknown. Methods We conducted a retrospective cohort study of U.S. adults from 2011 to 2018, using three nationally representative databases to examine potential disparities in relevant outcomes among racial and ethnic groups. Our analysis included logistic and linear regressions, along with competing risk analysis. Results Black individuals had the highest daily alcohol consumption (12.6 g/day) while Hispanic participants had the largest prevalence of heavy episodic drinking (33.5%). In a multivariable‐adjusted model, Hispanic and Asian participants were independently associated with a higher ALD prevalence compared to Non‐Hispanic White interviewees (OR: 1.4, 95% CI: 1.1–1.8 and OR: 1.5 95% CI:1.1–2.0, respectively), while Blacks participants had a lower ALD prevalence (OR: .7 95% CI: .6–.9), and a lower risk of mortality during hospitalization due to ALD (OR: .83 95% CI: .73–.94). Finally, a multivariate competing‐risk analysis showed that Hispanic ethnicity had a decreased probability of liver transplantation if waitlisted for ALD (SHR: .7, 95% CI: .6–.8) along with female Asian population (HR: .40, 95% CI: .26–.62). Conclusions After accounting for key social and biological health determinants, the Hispanic population showed an increased risk of ALD prevalence, even with lower alcohol consumption. Additionally, Hispanic and Asian female patients had reduced access to liver transplantation compared to other enlisted patients.

Background and Aims: Alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH) poses significant short-term mortality. Existing prognostic models lack precision for 90-day mortality. Utilizing artificial intelligence in a global cohort, we sought to derive and validate an enhanced prognostic model. Approach and Results: The Global AlcHep initiative, a retrospective study across 23 centers in 12 countries, enrolled patients with AH per National Institute for Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism criteria. Centers were partitioned into derivation (11 centers, 860 patients) and validation cohorts (12 centers, 859 patients). Focusing on 30 and 90-day postadmission mortality, 3 artificial intelligence algorithms (Random Forest, Gradient Boosting Machines, and eXtreme Gradient Boosting) informed an ensemble model, subsequently refined through Bayesian updating, integrating the derivation cohort’s average 90-day mortality with each center’s approximate mortality rate to produce posttest probabilities. The ALCoholic Hepatitis Artificial INtelligence Ensemble score integrated age, gender, cirrhosis, and 9 laboratory values, with center-specific mortality rates. Mortality was 18.7% (30 d) and 27.9% (90 d) in the derivation cohort versus 21.7% and 32.5% in the validation cohort. Validation cohort 30 and 90-day AUCs were 0.811 (0.779–0.844) and 0.799 (0.769–0.830), significantly surpassing legacy models like Maddrey’s Discriminant Function, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease variations, age-serum bilirubin-international normalized ratio-serum Creatinine score, Glasgow, and modified Glasgow Scores (p < 0.001). ALCoholic Hepatitis Artificial INtelligence Ensemble score also showcased superior calibration against MELD and its variants. Steroid use improved 30-day survival for those with an ALCoholic Hepatitis Artificial INtelligence Ensemble score > 0.20 in both derivation and validation cohorts. Conclusions: Harnessing artificial intelligence within a global consortium, we pioneered a scoring system excelling over traditional models for 30 and 90-day AH mortality predictions. Beneficial for clinical trials, steroid therapy, and transplant indications, it’s accessible at: https://aihepatology.shinyapps.io/ALCHAIN/.

Alcohol-associated liver disease due to harmful alcohol use and NAFLD associated with metabolic syndrome are the 2 most common liver diseases worldwide. Control of respective risk factors is the cornerstone in the long-term management of these diseases. Furthermore, there are no effective therapies. Both diseases are characterized by metabolic derangements; thus, the focus of this review was to broaden our understanding of metabolic targets investigated in NAFLD, and how these can be applied to alcohol-associated liver disease. Conserved pathogenic pathways such as dysregulated lipid metabolism, cell death pathways including apoptosis and activation of innate immune cells, and stellate cells mediate both alcohol and NAFLDs, resulting in histological abnormalities of steatosis, inflammation, fibrosis, and cirrhosis. However, pathways such as gut microbiome changes, glucose metabolism and insulin resistance, inflammatory signaling, and microRNA abnormalities are distinct in these 2 diseases. In this review article, we describe conserved and distinct pathogenic pathways highlighting therapeutic targets that may be of potential in both diseases and those that are unique to each disease.

Abstract Aims Readmission is frequent among patients with cirrhosis and is a complex multifactorial process. To examine the association of alcohol use disorder (AUD) and risk of readmission in patients with alcohol-associated cirrhosis. Methods and Results National Readmission Dataset (2016–2017) was used to extract a retrospective cohort of 53,348 patients with primary or secondary discharge diagnosis code of alcohol-associated cirrhosis with their first admission (26,674 patients with vs. propensity matched 26,674 without a primary or secondary discharge diagnosis code of AUD). Readmission within 30-day was lower (43.9 vs. 48%, P &lt; 0.001) among patients identified to have AUD at the time of discharge. In a conditional logistic regression model, a diagnosis of AUD was associated with 15% reduced odds of 30-day readmission, 0.85 (0.83–0.88). Furthermore, the reason for readmission among patients identified vs. not identified to have AUD was less likely to be liver disease complication. The findings remained similar in a matched cohort of patients where the AUD diagnosis at discharge was listed as one of the secondary diagnoses only. Conclusion Although, our study findings suggest that identification of AUD at the time of discharge among patients hospitalized for alcohol-associated cirrhosis reduces the risk of 30-day readmission, unavailable information on patient counseling, referral for mental health specialist and treatment received for AUD limit the causality assessment. Future studies are needed overcoming the inherent limitations of the database to establish the role of identification and treatment of AUD in reducing readmission and liver decompensation in patients with alcohol-associated cirrhosis.