Tsao, Philip S.

BACKGROUND: Predictive performance of polygenic risk scores (PRS) varies across populations. To facilitate equitable clinical use, we developed PRS for coronary heart disease (CHD; PRS CHD ) for 5 genetic ancestry groups. METHODS: We derived ancestry-specific and multi-ancestry PRS CHD based on pruning and thresholding (PRS PT ) and ancestry-based continuous shrinkage priors (PRS CSx ) applied to summary statistics from the largest multi-ancestry genome-wide association study meta-analysis for CHD to date, including 1.1 million participants from 5 major genetic ancestry groups. Following training and optimization in the Million Veteran Program, we evaluated the best-performing PRS CHD in 176,988 individuals across 9 diverse cohorts. RESULTS: Multi-ancestry PRS PT and PRS CSx outperformed ancestry-specific PRS PT and PRS CSx across a range of tuning values. Two best-performing multi-ancestry PRS CHD (ie, PRS PTmult and PRS CSxmult ) and 1 ancestry-specific (PRS CSxEUR ) were taken forward for validation. PRS PTmult demonstrated the strongest association with CHD in individuals of South Asian ancestry and European ancestry (odds ratio per 1 SD [95% CI, 2.75 [2.41–3.14], 1.65 [1.59–1.72]), followed by East Asian ancestry (1.56 [1.50–1.61]), Hispanic/Latino ancestry (1.38 [1.24–1.54]), and African ancestry (1.16 [1.11–1.21]). PRS CSxmult showed the strongest associations in South Asian ancestry (2.67 [2.38–3.00]) and European ancestry (1.65 [1.59–1.71]), lower in East Asian ancestry (1.59 [1.54–1.64]), Hispanic/Latino ancestry (1.51 [1.35–1.69]), and the lowest in African ancestry (1.20 [1.15–1.26]). CONCLUSIONS: The use of summary statistics from a large multi-ancestry genome-wide meta-analysis improved the performance of PRS CHD in most ancestry groups compared with single-ancestry methods. Despite the use of one of the largest and most diverse sets of training and validation cohorts to date, improvement of predictive performance was limited in African ancestry. This highlights the need for larger genome-wide association study datasets of underrepresented populations to enhance the performance of PRS CHD .

Abstract Coronary artery disease (CAD) is a leading cause of death, yet its genetic determinants are not fully elucidated. We report a multi-ethnic genome-wide association study of CAD involving nearly a quarter of a million cases, incorporating the largest cohorts to date of Whites, Blacks, and Hispanics from the Million Veteran Program with existing studies including CARDIoGRAMplusC4D, UK Biobank, and Biobank Japan. We verify substantial and nearly equivalent heritability of CAD across multiple ancestral groups, discover 107 novel loci including the first nine on the X-chromosome, identify the first eight genome-wide significant loci among Blacks and Hispanics, and demonstrate that two common haplotypes are largely responsible for the risk stratification at the well-known 9p21 locus in most populations except those of African origin where both haplotypes are virtually absent. We identify 15 loci for angiographically derived burden of coronary atherosclerosis, which robustly overlap with the strongest and earliest loci reported to date for clinical CAD. Phenome-wide association analyses of novel loci and externally validated polygenic risk scores (PRS) augment signals from the insulin resistance cluster of risk factors and consequences, extend previously established pleiotropic associations of loci with traditional risk factors to include smoking and family history, and confirm a substantially reduced transferability of existing PRS to Blacks. Downstream integrative genomic analyses reinforce the critical role of endothelial, fibroblast, and smooth muscle cells within the coronary vessel wall in CAD susceptibility. Our study highlights the value of a multi-ethnic design in efficiently characterizing the genetic architecture of CAD across all human populations.

Background: Abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) is an important cause of cardiovascular mortality; however, its genetic determinants remain incompletely defined. In total, 10 previously identified risk loci explain a small fraction of AAA heritability. Methods: We performed a genome-wide association study in the Million Veteran Program testing ≈18 million DNA sequence variants with AAA (7642 cases and 172 172 controls) in veterans of European ancestry with independent replication in up to 4972 cases and 99 858 controls. We then used mendelian randomization to examine the causal effects of blood pressure on AAA. We examined the association of AAA risk variants with aneurysms in the lower extremity, cerebral, and iliac arterial beds, and derived a genome-wide polygenic risk score (PRS) to identify a subset of the population at greater risk for disease. Results: Through a genome-wide association study, we identified 14 novel loci, bringing the total number of known significant AAA loci to 24. In our mendelian randomization analysis, we demonstrate that a genetic increase of 10 mm Hg in diastolic blood pressure (odds ratio, 1.43 [95% CI, 1.24–1.66]; P =1.6×10 −6 ), as opposed to systolic blood pressure (odds ratio, 1.06 [95% CI, 0.97–1.15]; P =0.2), likely has a causal relationship with AAA development. We observed that 19 of 24 AAA risk variants associate with aneurysms in at least 1 other vascular territory. A 29-variant PRS was strongly associated with AAA (odds ratio PRS , 1.26 [95% CI, 1.18–1.36]; P PRS =2.7×10 −11 per SD increase in PRS), independent of family history and smoking risk factors (odds ratio PRS+family history+smoking , 1.24 [95% CI, 1.14–1.35]; P PRS =1.27×10 −6 ). Using this PRS, we identified a subset of the population with AAA prevalence greater than that observed in screening trials informing current guidelines. Conclusions: We identify novel AAA genetic associations with therapeutic implications and identify a subset of the population at significantly increased genetic risk of AAA independent of family history. Our data suggest that extending current screening guidelines to include testing to identify those with high polygenic AAA risk, once the cost of genotyping becomes comparable with that of screening ultrasound, would significantly increase the yield of current screening at reasonable cost.