Moon, James

BACKGROUND: Elevated blood pressure (BP) is a major contributor to coronary artery disease. We explored the impact of life-course BP on later-life normalized stress myocardial blood flow (sMBF N ) and myocardial perfusion reserve by cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR). METHODS: MyoFit46 prospectively recruited ≈500 National Survey of Health and Development 1946 birth cohort participants, aged ≈77 years, to undergo stress perfusion and late gadolinium enhancement CMR. Systolic (SBPs) and diastolic BPs were recorded at 36, 43, 53, 63, 69, and 77 years. For each participant, the annual rates of BP change (steepness of BP increase) and area under the BP trajectory curve (cumulative life-course BP burden) were derived using mixed-effects models. The associations between BP measures and CMR metrics were tested using generalized linear and additive models, adjusted for antihypertensive use, demographics, lifestyle choices, and comorbidities. Cross-sectional associations between CMR metrics and major adverse cardiovascular events (myocardial infarction, stroke, and heart failure) were also tested. Mediation analyses explored the mechanistic pathways linking life-course BPs, myocardial perfusion, and myocardial fibrosis. RESULTS: Among 459 included MyoFit46 participants, each 10 mm Hg higher SBP at 36 to 69 years was associated with 3% to 6% lower sMBF N by CMR at 77 years. At 43 to 63 years, as SBPs rose from 120 to 140 mm Hg, sMBF N was 18% to 24% lower. Having a sustained higher SBP by 10 mm Hg from 36 to 77 years was associated with 11% (95% CI, 8–14) lower sMBF N at 77 years. Each 1 mm Hg/y steeper SBP rise during age intervals 36 to 43, 43 to 53, 53 to 63, and 63 to 69 years was associated with 2% to 6% lower sMBF N at 77 years, associations not conditional on baseline or final BPs in each age interval. Associations may be clinically relevant as each 1% lower sMBF N was associated with 3% higher odds of major adverse cardiovascular events. sMBF N mediated ≈20% to ≈40% of the associations between life-course SBPs and late gadolinium enhancement at 77 years. Results were similar for diastolic BP, myocardial perfusion reserve, or sMBF (not normalized). CONCLUSIONS: Higher life-course BPs, steeper increases, and greater cumulative BP burden associate with lower myocardial perfusion by CMR at 77 years, which can be linked with higher odds of major adverse cardiovascular events and greater myocardial fibrosis burden. This underscores the importance of early life BP screening and guiding hyperetension treatment based on longitudinal BP trajectories (rather than relying solely on cross-sectional BPs). REGISTRATION: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov ; Unique identifier: NCT05455125.

Purpose Objective tumor response rates observed in phase II trials for metastatic melanoma have historically not provided a reliable indicator of meaningful survival benefits. To facilitate using overall survival (OS) or progression-free survival (PFS) as an endpoint for future phase II trials, we evaluated historical data from cooperative group phase II trials to attempt to develop benchmarks for OS and PFS as reference points for future phase II trials. Patients and Methods Individual-level and trial-level data were obtained for patients enrolled onto 42 phase II trials (70 trial arms) that completed accrual in the years 1975 through 2005 and conducted by Southwest Oncology Group, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group, Cancer and Leukemia Group B, North Central Cancer Treatment Group, and the Clinical Trials Group of the National Cancer Institute of Canada. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify prognostic variables, and between-trial(-arm) variability in 1-year OS rates and 6-month PFS rates were examined. Results Statistically significant individual-level and trial-level prognostic factors found in a multivariate survival analysis for OS were performance status, presence of visceral disease, sex, and whether the trial excluded patients with brain metastases. Performance status, sex, and age were statistically significant prognostic factors for PFS. Controlling for these prognostic variables essentially eliminated between-trial variability in 1-year OS rates but not in 6-month PFS rates. Conclusion Benchmarks are provided for 1-year OS or OS curves that make use of the distribution of prognostic factors of the patients in the phase II trial. A similar benchmark for 6-month PFS is provided, but its use is more problematic because of residual between-trial variation in this endpoint.