Worrall, Bradford B.

Introduction: Intracranial aneurysm (IA) and abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) rupture carry high mortality (40% and 75% respectively) and substantial morbidity in survivors. Recent research suggests that IA and AAA share genetic risk in addition to environmental factors. Retrospective data from our institution identified a population harboring both IA and AAA and showed a high rupture rate for IA (44.2%). We previously demonstrated that screening for AAA in patients with IA is cost-effective based on estimated and published data. We hypothesize that screening for IA in patients with AAA is also cost-effective. Method: We developed a decision-making model using TreeAge Pro 2013 software assuming a hypothetical population with known AAA and truncated screening versus no screening for IA using magnetic resonance angiography. Based on IA size and location, patients were either treated endovascularly or placed on surveillance. Proportions, risks, utilities, and costs for each decision arm were derived from literature. Results: At a given rupture rate, incremental effectiveness varied linearly with coprevalence of AAA and IA. For an assumed rupture rate of 5%/year, screening was effective for coprevalence >6.8% (top graph) and was cost-effective for coprevalence >7.7%. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) favored screening (ICER=$54,193/QALY) at a 7.8% coprevalence and dropped to $27,841.50/QALY at 8.8% coprevalence. Our model was sensitive to IA rupture rate as well as coprevalence (bottom graph). Conclusion: Our model suggests the cost-effectiveness of screening for IA in patients with AAA, below the accepted societal threshold of an ICER $60,000/QALY at a coprevalence ≥7.8% and IA rupture rate ≥5%. These are plausible assumptions for this genetically high-risk population. Further prospective study is warranted to establish coprevalence of AAA and IA, rupture rates, and determine the benefit of dedicated screening.

Background: The heterogeneity of ischemic stroke has relevance for determination of risk for recurrence, prediction of outcomes, and identification of genetic risk factors. Among the many systems created for classifying patients into subtypes of stroke, the Trial of Org10172 Acute Stroke Trial (TOAST) and Causative Classification of Stroke (CCS) systems are among the most commonly used. Both systems generate similar subtype diagnoses although the two systems use different criteria for subtype assignment. The purpose of this study was to assess the level of agreement between subtype classification made using these two systems. Methods: Study subjects included 14,106 adult men and women accrued in the NINDS Stroke Genetics Network (SiGN) across 21 centers in the US and Europe classified independently using both with TOAST and CCS. Kappa statistics were calculated for the five major ischemic stroke subtypes common to both systems. Results: The overall agreement between TOAST and CCS was moderate (agreement rate, 70%; kappa = 0.60, 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.59 to 0.61). Agreement varied widely across study sites, ranging from 28% to 90%. Agreement on specific subtypes was highest for large artery atherosclerosis (kappa, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.70 to 0.73) and lowest for small artery occlusion (kappa = 0.56, 95%CI, 0.54 to 0.58). Conclusion: Agreement between TOAST and CCS diagnoses was only moderate. Caution is warranted when comparing or combining results based upon the two systems. Re-phenotyping using one system should be encouraged when possible to ensure valid results. Table: Cross-classification of stroke subtypes by TOAST and CCS

Objectives: Genetic and environmental influences contribute to differences in ischemic stroke phenotype across race-ethnic groups. The Causative Classification System (CSS) is an ischemic stroke phenotype characterization tool developed for etiological and causative classification. The CCS phenotypes across ethnic groups were analyzed and compared. Methods: The NINDS S troke G enetics N etwork (SiGN) is a large consortium aimed at identifying subtype-specific ischemic stroke susceptibility genes. Over 12,000 subjects at 22 sites across US and Europe were enrolled, with CSS locally adjudicated. Central CCS quality control was performed on all participants. Analysis was performed on 7,674 patients with complete workups. Findings: Significant ethnic differences were found in stroke etiology across ethnic groups (p <0.0001) with large artery atherosclerosis present most commonly in Asians, cardioembolic sources among Caucasian Europeans, and lacunar strokes among African Americans. African Americans were the youngest ethnic cohort analyzed (see Table 1). Conclusion: Significant differences in stroke subtypes are present across ethnic groups. Future genetic analyses may contribute to our understanding of these differences.

Introduction: Estrogens have been associated with risk of stroke in both men and women. Estradiol and estrone are synthesized from testosterone via the aromatase enzyme in both men and postmenopausal women. Genetic variation affecting function of the aromatase gene (CYP19A1) has been linked to elevated estradiol levels. We tested the hypothesis that these variants, as well as a modifying gene, are associated with ischemic stroke in three cohorts: the Vitamin Intervention for Stroke Prevention trial (VISP), Women’s Health Initiative (WHI), and Genetic Susceptibility to Early-Onset Stroke study (GEOS). Methods: Genomic data for individuals of European descent with ischemic stroke was compared against an equal number of controls: VISP (1723 cases - 65% men), WHI (436 cases - all postmenopausal women), GEOS (557 cases - all men age <55). Genotyping was funded through the Genomics and Randomized Trials Network (GARNET) and Gene Environment Association Studies (GENEVA) consortia. All cohorts used the Illumina Omni1-Quad chip for genotyping with imputation as needed. Eight candidate single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in CYP19A1 on chromosome 15 and an additional regulatory SNP in a modifier locus on chromosome 8 were chosen for analysis due to coding status or previous association with estradiol levels. Analyses were adjusted for age, hormone therapy use (women), and the top three principal components. Association results were determined as odds ratios for individual SNPs (effect allele = minor), with significance level of p<0.05. Results: GWAS results are tabulated. There were no significant differences in allele frequency for four SNPs in CYP19A1 among stroke patients and controls. The additional four SNPs were monomorphic in all three populations. The modifier gene SNP (rs1864729) was less common among young men with prior stroke in GEOS, but not men in VISP or in women. Conclusions: Aromatase genetic variation was not associated with risk of stroke in these three cohorts. One SNP that modifies aromatase function was less common among young, but not older men with stroke. Replication in other studies is necessary.

BACKGROUND: Recent genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified a number of novel SNPs associated with blood pressure and hypertension-related traits although studies were very large (approaching 80K participants) and effect sizes were modest with per allele effect sizes as small variants as a single millimeter of mercury difference in blood pressure. However, because hypertension is the most potent modifiable risk factor for ischemic stroke, lowering blood pressure by a few mm Hg can translate into measurable decrease in stroke risk. METHODS: We investigated 22 hypertension (HTN) associated SNPs in a case-control analysis of ischemic stroke in multiple stroke studies including the Siblings With Ischemic Stroke Study (SWISS), the Ischemic Stroke Genetics Study (ISGS), the Bio-Repository of DNA in Stroke (BRAINS), the Vitamin Intervention for Stroke Prevention (VISP) trial, and the Women's Health Initiative (WHI). SWISS/ISGS/BRAINS were analyzed together and included subtype information. Genotyping was funded through the individual studies, the Genomics and Randomized Trials Network (GARNET) consortium, and the SHARe (SNP Health Association Resource). All studies had both raw and imputed GWAS data. Analyses included the following phenotypes: all ischemic stroke, stroke subtypes, and age-at-stroke-onset and were stratified by race. Analyses were minimally adjusted for age, sex and principal components 1 & 2. Alpha was set at 0.05. RESULTS: Eleven of the SNPs from the HTN GWAS were associated with ischemic stroke in European ancestry from one or more of the study populations. Two SNPs on chromosome 12 and one on chromosome 21 were associated in multiple European ancestry cohorts. No SNP was associated in all studies. A SNP previously associated with HTN in African ancestry populations was associated with stroke in African-Americans. Analysis of subtypes found associations with small vessel disease and cardioembolic stroke but not large artery disease. The case-only age-at-stroke-onset analysis also found associations for the two SNPs on chromosome 12. CONCLUSION: These data suggest that candidate SNPs from a HTN GWAS may be associated with ischemic stroke and warrant further investigation. Racial differences were observed. Replication in populations from the other SiGN (Stroke Genetics Network), GENEVA (Gene Environment Association Studies) consortium, and the ISGC (International Stroke Genetics Consortium) studies are underway.

Background: Causative Classification of Stroke (CCS) system is a novel, web-based, and fully-computerized algorithm that integrates clinical, diagnostic, and etiologic stroke characteristics in an evidence-based manner (available at http://ccs.mgh.harvard.edu ) and provides in a given patient both phenotypic subtypes where abnormal evaluation findings are simply organized in major etiologic categories and causative subtypes where abnormal evaluation findings are filtered through a decision making process to identify the most likely cause of stroke. In this study, we sought to identify the concordance between phenotypic and causative CCS subtypes in the NINDS Stroke Genetics Network (SiGN). Methods: A total of 24 adjudicators from 15 US and European sites certified in CCS retrospectively determined CCS subtypes through chart review in 7134 patients. The CCS software provided causative subtypes in 3 confidence levels as “evident”, “probable” or “possible” based on the weight of causal evidence. We estimated how often CCS classified a given major abnormal evaluation finding as the causative stroke mechanism. Results: CCS assigned 55% of patients with the phenotype of moderate-to-severe atherosclerotic stenosis into the causative category of “evident large artery atherosclerosis”. Likewise, 50% of patients with a major cardiac source (such as atrial fibrillation) were classified into “evident cardio-aortic embolism”, and 74% of those with imaging evidence of a typical lacunar infarct into “evident small artery occlusion”. In 20% to 30% of patients, phenotypic and causative categories were the same but the causative subtype was assigned with a lower level of confidence. Six to 20% of patients with a given phenotypic feature were classified into a different causative category. Failure to investigate for other subtypes in the presence of a positive test finding and the presence of multiple competing etiologies were key contributors to the observed disconcordance between phenotypic and causative subtypes. Conclusions: Our findings show that the presence of a major abnormality in stroke evaluation does not necessarily mean that it is always the cause. The ability of CCS system to discriminate between phenotypic and causative characteristics of stroke etiology provides the opportunity to refine stroke phenotypes for use in research studies.

Background: Intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) is the stroke subtype with the worst prognosis and has no established acute treatment. ICH is classified as lobar and non-lobar based on the location of the hemorrhage, with genetic variation contributing to risk of both subtypes. We report the first genome wide association study (GWAS) of this condition. Methods: The discovery phase included GWAS data (Illumina 610 or Affymetrix 6.0) from 6 ICH studies that enrolled subjects of European ancestry in the US and Europe. Cases were classified as lobar or non-lobar ICH based on head CT. ICH-free controls were selected from ambulatory clinics or by random digit dialing. Standard quality controls filters were applied and principal component analysis was used to account for population structure. Unobserved genotypes were inferred by imputation to 1000 genomes references panels. Association testing was carried out using logistic regression, assuming additive effects, and including age, gender and principal components in the model. Meta-analyses were completed using the inverse normal method, weighting by sample size. Replication of signals with p<1x10E-6 was pursued in an independent multi-ethnic study utilizing direct genotyping. Results: The discovery phase included 1545 cases (664 lobar and 881 non-lobar) and 1481 controls, and tested 5,358,103 SNPs. Two loci were identified: for lobar ICH, an intergenic region located on chromosome 12q21.1 (rs11179580: minor allele frequency [MAF] 0.22, OR 1.54, 95% CI 1.33 - 1.84; p = 6.7x10E-8); and for non-lobar ICH, a region on chromosome 1q22 encompassing the PMF1 and SLC25A44 genes (rs2984613: MAF 0.31, OR 1.45, 95% CI 1.2 - 1.64; p = 8.9x10E-9). Replication included 1256 cases (329 whites, 506 blacks and 421 Hispanics) and 760 controls (237 whites, 346 blacks and 177 Hispanics) and confirmed both loci: 12q21.1 (p = 0.037, meta-analysis p = 2.3x10E-8) and 1q22 (p = 3.0x10E-4, meta-analysis p = 2.2x10E-11). Conclusions: Two new susceptibility loci for ICH were identified, both showing location-specificity. These results confirm the presence of biological heterogeneity across ICH subtypes and highlight that different genetic risk factors may contribute to the small vessel diseases that underlie each ICH subtype.

Introduction: Genetic studies of early-onset disease have been an effective strategy to identify novel pathways and drug targets generalizable also to later-onset disease. Few studies have investigated the sex-specific genetic associations with early-onset ischemic stroke even though several features of ischemic stroke differ between males and females. We hypothesized that stratifying the GWAS by sex would reveal novel stroke loci. Methods: We performed a transethnic ischemic stroke GWAS of 3,056 female cases and 4,462 male cases < 60 years-old and 16,192 and 16,048 sex-matched controls, respectively, from the Early Onset Stroke Genetics Consortium. Results: We identified a significant association in women with a locus in close proximity to TMX1 , a transmembrane platelet protein that inhibits platelet function. Additionally, we identified 2 other suggestive (P < 5 x 10 -6 ) loci in females (see Table), i.e., at APOH , which encodes beta2-glycoprotein I, an established GWAS locus for lipoprotein(a), and LRFN2 which has been previously reported to associate with obesity-related measures and type II diabetes. We observed suggestive evidence for association in males with MMP3/MMP12 , a known stroke susceptibility locus. Conclusions: Despite a very modest sample size, sex-specific analyses identified suggestive associations at biologically important novel loci in females and a known stroke locus in males. Further studies of sex-specific associations in both early- and later-onset ischemic stroke are needed.

Abstract Stroke represents a considerable burden of disease for both men and women. However, a growing body of literature suggests clinically relevant sex differences in the underlying causes, presentations and outcomes of acute ischaemic stroke. In a recent study, we reported sex divergences in lesion topographies: specific to women, acute stroke severity was linked to lesions in the left-hemispheric posterior circulation. We here determined whether these sex-specific brain manifestations also affect long-term outcomes. We relied on 822 acute ischaemic patients [age: 64.7 (15.0) years, 39% women] originating from the multi-centre MRI-GENIE study to model unfavourable outcomes (modified Rankin Scale &gt;2) based on acute neuroimaging data in a Bayesian hierarchical framework. Lesions encompassing bilateral subcortical nuclei and left-lateralized regions in proximity to the insula explained outcomes across men and women (area under the curve = 0.81). A pattern of left-hemispheric posterior circulation brain regions, combining left hippocampus, precuneus, fusiform and lingual gyrus, occipital pole and latero-occipital cortex, showed a substantially higher relevance in explaining functional outcomes in women compared to men [mean difference of Bayesian posterior distributions (men – women) = −0.295 (90% highest posterior density interval = −0.556 to −0.068)]. Once validated in prospective studies, our findings may motivate a sex-specific approach to clinical stroke management and hold the promise of enhancing outcomes on a population level.

Abstract While chronological age is one of the most influential determinants of post-stroke outcomes, little is known of the impact of neuroimaging-derived biological brain age. We here first examine whether radiomics analysis of the texture of brain T2-FLAIR MRI images can be used to predict brain age in stroke patients. We then assess the clinical determinants of accelerated brain aging and, finally, its impact on post-stroke functional outcomes. Leveraging a multisite cohort of 4,163 ischemic stroke patients, we show that older-appearing patients have more hypertension, diabetes mellitus, prior strokes, and smoking history and are more likely to develop worse post-stroke outcomes than their younger-appearing counterparts. Our results strengthen the importance of preventive medicine for maintaining brain health in stroke patients as they age and suggest a novel methodology to capture previously undescribed prognostic information available on commonly acquired MRI sequences during routine stroke care.