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Abstract Purpose Validate the semiquantitative (SQ)-MRI score for chronic pancreatitis (CP) diagnosis in an independent, multicenter cohort. Methods We analyzed MRIs performed at baseline in 337 participants with acute (AP) or recurrent AP (RAP) and 67 with non-calcific chronic pancreatitis (NCCP) enrolled in the PROCEED study from 6/2017 to 3/2023. MRIs were performed at multiple clinical centers using site-specific clinical protocols and a variety of MRI vendors to evaluate the SQ-MRI score in a real-world setting. The SQ-MRI score was calculated using the T1 signal intensity ratio of the pancreas to the spleen (T1 score), arteriovenous enhancement ratio (AVR), and pancreatic body diameter (PBD). We adjusted for confounding by participant characteristics via propensity score weighting. Results Median AVR was higher in AP/RAP (1.18, IQR: 0.97–1.44) than in the NCCP group (1.03, IQR: 0.78–1.22, p = 0.007). Pancreatic body diameters were larger in AP/RAP than in the NCCP group − 7–14 mm (10% vs 25%), 14–20 mm (40% vs 54%), and > 20 mm (50% vs 21%), respectively ( p < 0.01). Median T1 score was higher in AP/RAP (1.18, IQR: 0.96–1.40) than in the NCCP group (1.04, IQR: 0.86–1.32, p = 0.10). Median SQ-MRI score in the AP/RAP group was significantly lower, 1.91 (IQR: 0.97, 2.95), than in the NCCP group, 2.74 (IQR: 2.04–4.03) ( p < 0.001). The propensity score-adjusted AUC for SQ-MRI to distinguish AP/RAP from NCCP was 0.64, which was higher than for individual parameters. Conclusion We have validated the SQ-MRI score in a multicenter cohort using an independent, real-world MRI dataset.

ABSTRACT Background and Aims It remains unclear whether different factors influence 30‐ and 90‐day readmission rates. We identified predictors of 90‐day mortality in a global cohort of hospitalised patients with cirrhosis. Methods Variables associated with 30‐ and 90‐day post‐discharge readmission, liver transplantation (LT), and mortality were compared in prospectively enrolled, non‐electively hospitalised adult patients with cirrhosis. Results We enrolled 4208 patients from 125 centres across 37 countries. Alcohol‐related liver disease was the most common aetiology of cirrhosis (40%), followed by hepatitis B virus infection (21%); 47% were readmitted, 8% received liver transplantation (LT), and 23% died within 90 days post‐discharge. In multivariable analysis, country income was significantly associated with both 30‐ and 90‐day readmission rates, the receipt of LT, and mortality within 30 and 90 days post‐discharge (all p ‐values < 0.001). Independent predictors of higher rates of 30‐ and 90‐day readmissions, respectively, were disease severity ( p < 0.001, p = 0.003), prior ascites ( p = 0.025, p = 0.016), prior hospitalisation ( p < 0.001), hyponatremia ( p < 0.001, p = 0.008), and in‐hospital vasopressor use ( p = 0.002, p = 0.011). Prior variceal bleeding independently predicted higher 90‐day readmission rates, whereas age, disease severity, mechanical ventilation, and in‐hospital vasopressor use (all, p < 0.001) increased odds of 30‐ and 90‐day post‐discharge death. Additionally, admission ( p = 0.011) and nosocomial ( p = 0.022) infections increased the odds of 90‐day post‐discharge death. Conclusion In a global cohort of hospitalised patients with cirrhosis, patients in high‐income countries exhibited the highest rates of 30‐ and 90‐day readmission, alongside lower mortality rates and a higher incidence of LT. Variables that predict 30‐day readmission also predicted 90‐day readmission. Understanding these disparities is essential for achieving health equity.

The adult chronic pancreatitis (CP) working group, formed at the inception of the Consortium for the Study of Chronic Pancreatitis, Diabetes, and Pancreatic Cancer (CPDPC), has developed a robust framework and infrastructure to conduct clinical, translational, and mechanistic studies of CP. At its core is PRO spective Evaluation of C hronic Pancreatitis for E pid E miologic and Translational Stu D ies (PROCEED), the first longitudinal cohort study of CP in US adults, launched in 2017. PROCEED has developed a well-annotated clinical data set of over 2000 deeply-phenotyped participants, a biorepository and an imaging repository. Investigators have published promising data on blood-based and imaging-based biomarkers of CP diagnosis and pain, which are awaiting validation. Clinical observations include classification of patients into mechanism-based pain phenotypes using responses to PROMIS questionnaires, prevalence and predictors of opioid use, prevalence of psychological comorbidity, and osteopathy in CP patients. Pilot clinical trials have evaluated the effect of oral indomethacin on pancreatic fluid prostaglandin E2 levels and Internet-based cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT) for chronic pain. Results of pilot trials have led to an ongoing definitive randomized clinical trial for CBT. The rich environment and resources have facilitated mentorship and academic development of many early-stage investigators. Investigators outside of the consortium have opportunities for collaboration. In the next 5 years, the working group plans to further strengthen the research platform, complete primary and key secondary analyses of PROCEED and ancillary studies, continue efforts to develop biomarkers for diagnosis and prognosis of CP, and complete ongoing clinical trials to address unanswered questions in the field.

INTRODUCTION: Nosocomial infections (NIs) in cirrhosis are associated with high mortality but could be preventable. Logistic regression (LR) models have failed to identify high-risk patients. We aimed to develop machine learning (ML) models to predict NI. METHODS: The CLEARED consortium consists of prospectively enrolled cirrhosis inpatients from >120 centers. Using day-of-admission clinical data, 3 ML approaches (random forest [RF], extreme gradient boosting, and neural networks [NNs]) were used to predict NI. Data were split 80:20 for training and testing stratified by the outcome. Models were compared using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). RESULTS: In total, 8,263 patients (55.90 ± 13.34 years; 64.1% men) from 127 centers in 37 countries were included. NI developed in 869 (10.5%), a median of 6 (4–11) days of postadmission. Major NIs were respiratory (29.6%) and urinary tract infection (15.7%), and spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (13.5%). NIs occurred more frequently in patients from low/low-middle income countries and those with severe liver disease, alcohol etiology, and admission infections. NIs were associated with inpatient mortality (31.9% vs 8.1%, P < 0.001) and liver transplantation (4.8% vs 1.9%, P < 0.001). Although the RF model (AUC 0.69) showed good calibration (Brier score 0.09), outperforming extreme gradient boosting, neural network, and LR models (AUC 0.66 for all; LR comparison P = 0.043), no model achieved AUC ≥0.80 for clinical utility. At 10% predicted probability threshold, the RF model demonstrated only 75.4% sensitivity, 52.9% specificity, and 15.9% positive predictive value (PPV). DISCUSSION: NIs cannot be accurately predicted from day-of-admission data using ML models, even in a large, prospective, global cirrhosis cohort. Every hospitalized patient with cirrhosis should receive protocolized infection control measures.

Background/Aims: Infections with drug-resistant organisms (DROs) are associated with poor outcomes in cirrhosis. Rifaximin, widely used for hepatic encephalopathy (HE), could promote cross-resistance, but data regarding clinical impact are conflicting. Aim: Determine predictors of DROs in a global cirrhosis inpatient cohort focusing on preadmission rifaximin use.Methods: From the global CLEARED consortium, we focused on cirrhosis inpatients with infections on/during admission. Clinical/demographic/medication, especially rifaximin details were recorded. The primary outcome was DRO development. Multivariable regression for DRO including clinical, medications, and country income was performed.Results: 2,949 infected inpatients (55.3 years, 62.9% male) were included. 12.2% of all and 24.4% of culture-positive infections developed DROs; these patients had higher HE (39 vs. 31%, <i>P</i>=0.003), hepatorenal syndrome (25 vs. 19%, <i>P</i>=0.006), lactulose (55 vs. 47%, <i>P</i>=0.008) and rifaximin use (34 vs. 27%, <i>P</i>=0.006) on crude comparisons but country-income distributions were similar. 29.7% were on pre-admission rifaximin, mostly HE-related; they had more advanced cirrhosis and from low/low-middle-income countries. Daptomycin was used in 1.5%, linked with DROs (5.0 vs. 1.0%, <i>P</i><0.0001) without a difference in rifaximin use (1.4 vs.1.7%, <i>P</i>=0.61). On adjusted analysis, MELD-Na (1.03, 95% CI 1.02–1.04, <i>P</i><0.001) increased, whereas male sex (0.73, 95% CI 0.58–0.92, <i>P</i>=0.008) and hepatitis-B (0.65, 95% CI 0.45–0.92, <i>P</i>=0.020) decreased DRO. Rifaximin was not associated with DROs overall (OR 1.07, 95% CI 0.80–1.43, <i>P</i>=0.65) or within income strata (high: 1.07, 95% CI 0.59–1.92, <i>P</i>=0.82, upper-middle: 1.18, 95% CI 0.74–1.85, <i>P</i>=0.49, low/low-middle: 1.04, 95% CI 0.60–1.81, <i>P</i>=0.90) despite sensitivity analyses.Conclusions: In this large global cohort of hospitalized patients with cirrhosis and infections, 12% developed infections involving DROs. 30% had pre-admission rifaximin use which was not linked with daptomycin use or with DRO development on adjusted analysis overall or across country income groups.

PURPOSE Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the third leading cause of cancer-related deaths worldwide. The higher incidence and earlier onset of HCC in sub-Saharan Africa suggest a potential role for a genetic predisposition. This study evaluated the association of TERT -rs2242652-(A), a variant linked to lower HCC risk, with HCC in populations from Ghana, Nigeria, and Cameroon, compared with a population from the United States. METHODS The study included 537 patients with HCC: United States (n = 348), Ghana (n = 79), Nigeria (n = 43), and Cameroon (n = 67). The control group had 2,872 cancer-free individuals: United States (n = 2,399), Ghana (n = 323), Nigeria (n = 85), and Cameroon (n = 65). Whole-exome sequencing was conducted using germline DNA, and data for TERT -rs2242652 were analyzed. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% CIs were calculated using unconditional logistic regression. Chi-square tests assessed protective allele frequencies. RESULTS In the US cohort, TERT -rs2242652 was significantly associated with lower HCC risk (OR, 0.75 [95% CI, 0.58 to 0.96]; P = .02), with an allele frequency of 18.8% (15.4% in HCC cases v 19.3% in controls). In the combined sub-Saharan African population, no significant association was observed, but there was a trend toward decreased HCC risk (OR, 0.80 [95% CI, 0.53 to 1.22]; P = .29), with an allele frequency of 12.2% (10.6% in HCC cases v 12.9% in controls). Separate analyses of Ghanaian, Nigerian, and Cameroonian populations showed similar nonsignificant trends. The protective allele frequency in the combined African populations was significantly lower than in the US cohort ( P < .0001). CONCLUSION In sub-Saharan African populations, there was a lower frequency of the HCC protective allele TERT -rs2242652 compared with European Americans. These findings underscore the importance of multiethnic genetic studies in understanding population differences in HCC risk and developing prevention strategies.

Background: Pancreatitis significantly alters the microbial composition of the oral and intestinal compartments, causing dysbiosis that may contribute to disease mechanisms and potentially serve as a basis for diagnosis or treatment. Objective: To determine whether the oral or gut microbial signature can classify chronic pancreatitis (CP). Methods: Stool samples (n=707) were collected from participants in the Prospective Evaluation of Chronic Pancreatitis for Epidemiologic and Translational Studies (PROCEED). Samples were distributed among 200 healthy (HC), 310 CP, 49 acute pancreatitis (AP), and 148 recurrent acute pancreatitis (RAP). In addition, saliva samples were collected for a subset of participants (n=156). Whole genome sequencing was performed to assess microbiome composition. Machine learning algorithms were utilized to identify a signature with microbial features predictive of CP. Results: Gut alpha diversity was significantly decreased in AP, RAP, and CP compared with HC, with CP exhibiting the lowest diversity. In contrast, oral microbial diversity showed no significant variation across groups. Beta diversity analysis revealed distinct gut microbiome compositions between HC and pancreatitis subtypes, with CP showing the most pronounced differences. Random forest models using gut microbial species demonstrated robust predictive performance for CP using a minimum of 10 species (Area under the curve—AUC: 0.834; accuracy: 0.774). Despite similarities in gut microbiome composition across pancreatitis subtypes, a unique gut microbial signature for CP was identified highlighting the microbiome’s potential in CP diagnosis. Conclusion: Our study reveals a gut microbial signature predictive of CP using machine learning models in a large US multi-institutional cohort.

INTRODUCTION: Chronic pancreatitis (CP) is a disease associated with chronic inflammation, fibrosis, and pain. There is a lack of tools available that facilitate early diagnosis, when intervention could prevent irreversible damage. Pilot data suggested prostaglandin E2 (PGE2) as a candidate biomarker for early CP. PGE2 activates signaling pathways that promote inflammation, pain, and fibrosis. METHODS: We assessed PGE2, metabolites, and downstream targets in pancreatic fluid collected endoscopically 0–10 (n = 110) and 10–20 (n = 111) minutes after intravenous secretin administration. PGE2 and metabolites were measured in plasma (n = 75) and urine (n = 71) from the same subjects. Subjects were enrolled in the PROCEED study and classified symptomatic controls, acute/recurrent acute pancreatitis (AP/RAP), or CP. RESULTS: A significant main effect was detected in 10–20 minutes pancreas fluid ( P = 0.027) and plasma ( P = 0.046); post hoc testing showed PGE2 was lower in the AP/RAP group compared with symptomatic controls. There was also trend toward lower PGE2 in urine ( P = 0.062). To elucidate the active downstream pathways, calcitonin gene-related peptide, substance P, and matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs) 1, 2, 3, 7, 9, and 13 were measured in pancreas fluid. A significant difference between the 3 groups was detected for both MMP7 and MMP9. MMP7 was elevated in individuals with CP vs AP/RAP ( P = 0.012) for samples collected early but both time points for MMP9 ( P = 0.027, P = 0.002). DISCUSSION: While PGE2 is detectable in pancreas fluid, these data suggest that it may not be sensitive enough to distinguish between AP/RAP and CP. However, MMPs may distinguish between stages of pancreatitis and require further testing as potential diagnostic biomarkers.

INTRODUCTION: Chronic pancreatitis (CP) remains difficult to manage with few treatment options. Prior studies have implicated prostaglandin E 2 (PGE 2 ) in mediating chronic inflammation in the pancreas. Therefore, we aimed to evaluate whether indomethacin, a cyclooxygenase-2 enzyme inhibitor, would reduce PGE 2 levels in CP. METHODS: In this pilot multicenter randomized controlled trial, participants with CP received oral indomethacin (50 mg) or placebo twice daily for 28 days. Measurement of PGE 2 levels in pancreatic fluid collected endoscopically after secretin administration at baseline and posttreatment (day 28) was performed. Quality of life and pain were also assessed at baseline and posttreatment. RESULTS: A total of 27 participants were randomized (indomethacin = 13, placebo = 14). Although PGE 2 levels decreased after treatment in pancreas fluid, plasma, and saliva in the indomethacin group, there was no significant difference in mean change in pancreas fluid PGE 2 levels between the indomethacin and placebo groups (−457.7 pg/mL vs −840.4 pg/mL, P = 0.25). There was also no significant change in pain severity composite score (−1.3 indomethacin vs −0.5 placebo, P = 0.33), but the improvement in pain interference score (−2.9 indomethacin vs −0.4, P = 0.058) trended toward significance. There was no difference in adverse events between the 2 groups. DISCUSSION: In this phase 1/2 study, oral indomethacin was safe and well tolerated by patients with CP. Although there was no significant difference in change in PGE 2 levels, further studies are needed to determine the effect of indomethacin on the inflammatory pathway of CP and patient-centered outcomes.

INTRODUCTION: Opioids are used to treat pain in chronic pancreatitis (CP), but little is known about current use patterns. The aim of this study was to characterize the utilization of opioids and associations with clinical characteristics in adult patients with CP. METHODS: This cross-sectional analysis used baseline data from participants with definite CP enrolled in a cohort study in the United States (PROspective Evaluation of CP for EpidEmiologic and Translational StuDies). Data on demographics, pain medication use, healthcare utilization, disability, and pain patterns were systematically collected in case report forms while quality of life was assessed with patient-reported outcome instruments. Opioid use was classified according to strength (weak or strong) and frequency (scheduled or as-needed). RESULTS: A total of 681 participants (n = 364, 53% male) were included: 299 (44%) were current opioid users (22% only weak opioids and 22% at least 1 strong opioid). Increasing frequency and severity of pain was associated with increase of weak, strong, as-needed, or scheduled opioids. Neuromodulators were used by ∼40% of participants; increasing use was associated with increasing frequency and severity of pain. On multivariate analysis, independent predictors associated with strength and frequency of current opioid use were pain patterns (odds ratios [ORs] 1.84–8.32 and ORs 1.92–8.52, respectively, P < 0.001) and prior celiac plexus block (OR 3.54, 95% confidence intervals 1.82–6.87 and OR 3.42, 95% confidence intervals 1.76–6.64, respectively). Participants using opioids had higher prevalence of disability, healthcare utilization, and poorer quality of life. DISCUSSION: Opioid use in CP is common and associated with increased pain severity and constancy. These data provide foundational estimates for future trials that can elucidate the complex interactions between patient factors, pain, and interventions.