Citations

Background & Aims: We examined treatment patterns and clinical outcomes in a contemporary cohort of children with newly diagnosed inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) in a large, commercially insured U.S. population. Methods: Using the OptumLabs® Data Warehouse, we created an inception cohort of physician-diagnosed IBD in children aged 6–17 years between 2007–23. We examined cumulative incidence of hospitalization, surgery, safety events, and medication use in patients with Crohn's disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC), overall and stratified by diagnostic era, race and ethnicity, sex, and age at diagnosis. Results: Among 787 children with newly diagnosed CD (age at diagnosis, 13.4±2.9y; 57% male; 82% White, 5% Black, 7% Hispanic) followed over mean 4.6±3.0y, 5-year risk of IBD-related hospitalization and major surgery was 30% and 10%, respectively. In children diagnosed in 2019–23, 1-year cumulative use of corticosteroids and advanced therapy was 46% and 75%, respectively; advanced therapy use increased significantly over time (aHR, 3.43 [95% CI, 2.71–4.32] for 2019–23 vs. 2007–12), while corticosteroid use declined (0.67 [0.53–0.84]). Risk of IBD-related hospitalization was lower in children diagnosed between 2019–23 (0.65 [0.43–0.97]) compared with those diagnosed between 2007-12; surgical risk did not decline significantly, with confidence intervals compatible with a clinically meaningful reduction. Among 399 children with newly diagnosed UC (age at diagnosis, 14.0±3.0y; 53% male; 78% White, 5% Black, 7% Hispanic) followed over 4.5±3.0y, 5-year risk of IBD-related hospitalization and colectomy was 36% and 8%, respectively. Advanced therapy use increased significantly over time (4.46 [2.85–6.98] for 2019–23 vs. 2007–12), with no significant change in hospitalization or surgical risk across eras. No consistent racial and ethnic, age, or sex differences in advanced therapy use or clinical outcomes were identified in either CD or UC. Conclusions: In a contemporary cohort of commercially insured children with newly diagnosed IBD, early advanced therapy use has increased markedly over time. Surgical risk did not decline significantly in either disease; however, the study was not powered to exclude a clinically meaningful reduction, and these findings are hypothesis-generating rather than conclusive.

Importance Elevated low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) is a modifiable risk factor for cardiovascular disease, the leading cause of premature death worldwide. Assessing the LDL-C–related burden is critical for guiding prevention and treatment strategies. Objectives To estimate the global, regional, and national burden of ischemic heart disease and ischemic stroke attributable to elevated LDL-C (relative to 35-54 mg/dL) from 1990 to 2023 and to quantify the contributions of population growth, aging, risk-deleted burden, and exposure changes to burden trends. Design, Setting, and Population This comparative risk assessment, part of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023, estimated population-level LDL-C exposure and associated health loss in 204 countries and territories. Mean LDL-C levels were estimated using spatiotemporal gaussian process regression based on 806 studies across 161 countries. Relative risks were derived from meta-analyses of 38 randomized clinical trials. Population-attributable fractions for deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were estimated by age and sex for adults aged 25 years or older from 1990 to 2023, with 95% uncertainty intervals. Exposure Population-level LDL-C concentrations. Main Outcomes and Measures Population-attributable fractions, counts, and rates (all ages and age standardized per 100 000) of LDL-C–attributable deaths and DALYs from ischemic heart disease and ischemic stroke, with uncertainty intervals. Results In 2023, elevated LDL-C accounted for 3.6 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval, 2.2-5.4 million; 6.0% of global mortality) and 90.7 million DALYs (95% uncertainty interval, 58.9-123.3 million; 3.2% of DALYs). Although global all-ages rates remained stable, age-standardized death and DALY rates decreased by 45.6% and 39.5%, respectively, since 1990. In 2023, age-standardized LDL-C–attributable DALY rates were highest in Eastern Europe and lowest in high-income Asia-Pacific. One-third of the global LDL-C burden occurred in India and China. Population growth and aging drove the increasing burden, with notable regional disparities in LDL-C exposure and risk-deleted DALY rates shifting toward middle-sociodemographic settings. Conclusions and Relevance Despite declining age-standardized rates, the absolute LDL-C burden has increased since 1990 due to demographic changes and has shifted toward middle-sociodemographic countries. Measurement and surveillance gaps persist. Strengthened prevention, diagnosis, and treatment access strategies are essential to mitigate the health burden of LDL-C.

Abstract Citation-prediction studies often estimate citation counts using information unavailable at publication. We evaluated whether citation-risk outcomes can be predicted using only publication-time information: metadata, references, author history, and text available on or before publication. We assembled 9,424 original-research articles published from 2017 to 2022 across seven clinical gastroenterology journals using OpenAlex and PubMed. The primary reference-observed cohort included 8,409 articles with a parsed reference list. The primary outcome was ≤ 3 citations within 2 years; secondary outcomes were 0 citations within 3 years, ≤ 3 citations within 3 years, and > 20 citations within 2 years. Models compared a nonsemantic citation/reference/context baseline, author-history variables, whole-document title/abstract embeddings, role-segmented source-text embeddings, and reference-context distributional features. Evaluation used two held-out publication-year folds with PR-AUC, or area under the precision-recall curve, F1, and precision among the top-ranked 10% of predictions. For the primary outcome, the nonsemantic baseline achieved PR-AUC 0.818, F1 0.722, and precision@10% 0.935. Adding whole-document embeddings improved performance to 0.828, 0.735, and 0.962, respectively. Structure-aware features did not improve the primary outcome but provided endpoint-specific gains for secondary outcomes. Author-history features showed standalone signal but did not improve the baseline. Pooled performance exceeded journal-local performance, indicating that citation-risk signal operated at the corpus level. These findings support publication-time-valid citation-risk modeling as a reproducible framework for studying evidence visibility within bounded literatures and motivate replication across other journal sets, specialties, and publication eras.

Abstract Introduction Despite regulatory mandates for advanced therapy (AT) washout periods of up to 5 drug half-lives before enrolling patients in inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) trials, the evidence base for these requirements is largely empirical, and whether shorter intervals independently increase the risk of serious infections in real-world practice remains unknown. Methods Using the OptumLabs Data Warehouse, we identified adult patients with IBD who initiated a new AT (tumor necrosis factor antagonists, vedolizumab, interleukin (IL)-12/23 or IL-23 antagonists, or Janus kinase inhibitors) between 2018 and 2023 using a class-specific new-user design. We examined whether exposure to AT within the preceding 12 months (vs no exposure to AT within that window) and timing of discontinuation (≤1 month, 1-<3 months, or 3-12 months) were associated with risk of serious infections using multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression. Results Among 21 564 AT initiators (47 ± 18 years; 52% female; 57% Crohn’s disease), 7490 (34.7%) had AT exposure within the preceding 12 months. Over a mean follow-up of 1.6 ± 0.9 y, 1955 (9.1%) experienced a serious infection. Prior AT exposure was associated with higher infection risk (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.19, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.07-1.33), consistent in inverse probability of treatment-weighted analyses (HR, 1.20 [1.06-1.37]). Among patients with prior exposure, timing of discontinuation was not associated with infection risk (HR, 1.17 [0.95-1.43] for ≤1 month vs 3-12 months; HR, 1.01 [0.83-1.22] for 1-<3 months), with no dose–response relationship on continuous modeling. Discussion AT exposure within the preceding 12 months is associated with modestly higher risk of serious infection after initiating a new AT in IBD, but timing of discontinuation does not independently influence this risk.

Abstract Introduction Despite progress in understanding placebo effects in clinical trials of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), there is a limited understanding of how socioeconomic factors of recruiting countries impact placebo rates. We investigated the association of socioeconomic factors across recruitment sites on placebo rates in IBD randomized controlled trials. Methods We examined the association of clinical and endoscopic remission and response to the weighted Gross National Index (GNI) per capita, Human Development Index (HDI), and out-of-pocket health expenditures as a percentage of current health expenditures (OOP_CHE) of identified trials using mixed effects linear regression. Results Across 76 trials (Crohn’s disease [CD]: n = 32; ulcerative colitis [UC]: n = 44), placebo response rates over time were largely stable, with a small increase across time in clinical remission for CD trials (β = 0.4% per increase in study year, 95% CI: 0.3%-0.84%, P = .04) and a small decrease across time in endoscopic response for UC trials (β = −1.39% per increase in study year, 95% CI: −1.79, −0.99, P < .001). Clinical response was most susceptible to changes in socioeconomic factors in IBD trials (β = −2.96% per 10 000 USD increase in study GNI, 95% CI: −4.98, −0.95%, P = .004; P < .05 for HDI and OOP_CHE). Across both conditions, decreases in clinical response were associated with increases in HDI and OOP_CHE (CD HDI: β = −1.15% per 0.01 increase in study HDI, 95% CI: −2.24, −0.06%, P = .04; UC HDI: β = −0.66% per 0.01 increase in study HDI, 95% CI: −1.19, −0.12%, P = .02). Discussion We found that placebo clinical response was most susceptible to influences of site-level socioeconomic wellbeing. These findings highlight that estimation of placebo rates in trial planning should account for geographic location of recruiting sites.

INTRODUCTION: Safety and effectiveness of treating to target mucosal healing in older patients with Crohn's disease (CD) is unknown. METHODS: We analyzed CD-related complications by 24 months in the randomized evaluation of an algorithm for Crohn's treatment—study 2-2 trial that randomized practices to an enhanced-care or step-care algorithm to determine whether patient age modifies the effect of treatment. Data were analyzed using marginal Cox regression and modified Poisson regression. RESULTS: There was no difference in treatment between younger and older patients in at 24 months. DISCUSSION: Enhanced-care was effective and not associated with increased risk compared with step-care in older patients with CD.

INTRODUCTION: The adjunctive use of p53 immunohistochemistry has been proposed as a potential tool to improve risk stratification in Barrett's esophagus (BE) with conflicting results. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to evaluate the performance of p53 in predicting progression to advanced neoplasia (high-grade dysplasia [HGD] and esophageal adenocarcinoma [EAC]) among patients with BE. METHODS: We searched multiple databases for studies that evaluated the use of aberrant p53 in esophageal biopsies among patients with BE and reported progression rates to HGD/EAC. The outcomes were p53 test characteristics and incidence and risk ratio (RR) for progression to HGD/EAC in patients with and without aberrant p53 using random effects models. RESULTS: Among the 27 included studies, the proportion of patients with aberrant p53 expression at baseline was 20% (95% CI: 14%, 27%). The rate of progression with and without aberrant p53 was 8 per 100 person-years (95% CI: 6, 11) and 0.3 per 100 person-years (95% CI: 0.1, 0.6), respectively. Compared with patients without aberrant p53 expression, those with aberrant p53 had a higher risk for progression to HGD/EAC in cohort studies (RR = 10.2 [95% CI: 6.9, 15.0]) and case control studies (RR = 3.3 [95% CI: 2.5, 4.4]). The sensitivity for progression for non-dysplastic Barrett's esophagus and low-grade dysplasia/indefinite for dysplasia was 42% and 77% and specificity was 96% and 76%, respectively. DISCUSSION: While aberrant p53 expression has been associated with an increased risk of progression to advanced neoplasia in patients with BE undergoing surveillance, the diagnostic characteristics are suboptimal precluding uniform clinical adoption. Prospective studies with standardized grading protocols are needed to determine whether p53-guided surveillance strategies can meaningfully improve patient outcomes.

Abstract Background We examined real-world utilization of treat-to-target (TTT) strategies and conducted a quality improvement (QI) project to improve uptake of TTT strategies in a learning health system, IBD Qorus. Methods We implemented a structured QI intervention to increase uptake of TTT in 41 gastroenterology practices in the United States, over a 13-month intervention period (November 2020 to November 2021; modified breakthrough series [BTS] collaborative), and a 10-month post-BTS observation period (December 2021 to October 2022). Through encounter-level surveys, we examined providers’ “intention to TTT” based on discussion of TTT with patients, documentation of inflammation, and intention to change therapy to TTT. We examined changes in rates of “intention to TTT,” and whether improvement in intention to TTT influenced site-level rates of remission. Results Over 13 months, there were 7932 patient visits (55% with Crohn’s disease; 47% in clinical remission); patients in 2160 visits (27%) were not in endoscopic remission. Overall, rates of intention to TTT increased from 31% to 54% (P = .06) with considerable site-to-site variability and was maintained at 49% in the post-BTS observation period. The increased rate was attributable to higher rates of testing for inflammation. Despite an increase in the rate of intention to TTT, there was no significant change in site-level achievement of remission over the same time. Conclusions Through a QI initiative in a learning health system, rates of intention to TTT increased significantly over 12-months, though overall rates remained low. Assessing patient-, provider- and practice-level barriers and facilitators for successful implementation of a TTT strategy is warranted to improve clinical outcomes.

ABSTRACT We conducted a USA claims‐based cohort study in 20,705 patients with inflammatory bowel diseases (IBD) on advanced therapies to estimate the overall and comparative risk of tuberculosis between advanced therapies using inverse probability of treatment weighted Cox proportional hazards model. The incidence rate (IR, per 100,000 person‐years) of tuberculosis with TNF antagonists ( n = 9378) and non‐TNF‐targeting biologics (anti‐integrins [ n = 5877], anti‐interleukins [ n = 5450]) was similar (38 [95% CI, 8–69] vs. 33[7–59]). Adjusting for covariates, risk of tuberculosis was similar (HR, 1.16 [0.41–3.31]). In low incidence regions like USA, the incidence of tuberculosis after starting advanced therapies for IBD is very low, and comparable across advanced therapies.