Singh, Siddharth

Background & Aims: We examined treatment patterns and clinical outcomes in a contemporary cohort of children with newly diagnosed inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) in a large, commercially insured U.S. population. Methods: Using the OptumLabs® Data Warehouse, we created an inception cohort of physician-diagnosed IBD in children aged 6–17 years between 2007–23. We examined cumulative incidence of hospitalization, surgery, safety events, and medication use in patients with Crohn's disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC), overall and stratified by diagnostic era, race and ethnicity, sex, and age at diagnosis. Results: Among 787 children with newly diagnosed CD (age at diagnosis, 13.4±2.9y; 57% male; 82% White, 5% Black, 7% Hispanic) followed over mean 4.6±3.0y, 5-year risk of IBD-related hospitalization and major surgery was 30% and 10%, respectively. In children diagnosed in 2019–23, 1-year cumulative use of corticosteroids and advanced therapy was 46% and 75%, respectively; advanced therapy use increased significantly over time (aHR, 3.43 [95% CI, 2.71–4.32] for 2019–23 vs. 2007–12), while corticosteroid use declined (0.67 [0.53–0.84]). Risk of IBD-related hospitalization was lower in children diagnosed between 2019–23 (0.65 [0.43–0.97]) compared with those diagnosed between 2007-12; surgical risk did not decline significantly, with confidence intervals compatible with a clinically meaningful reduction. Among 399 children with newly diagnosed UC (age at diagnosis, 14.0±3.0y; 53% male; 78% White, 5% Black, 7% Hispanic) followed over 4.5±3.0y, 5-year risk of IBD-related hospitalization and colectomy was 36% and 8%, respectively. Advanced therapy use increased significantly over time (4.46 [2.85–6.98] for 2019–23 vs. 2007–12), with no significant change in hospitalization or surgical risk across eras. No consistent racial and ethnic, age, or sex differences in advanced therapy use or clinical outcomes were identified in either CD or UC. Conclusions: In a contemporary cohort of commercially insured children with newly diagnosed IBD, early advanced therapy use has increased markedly over time. Surgical risk did not decline significantly in either disease; however, the study was not powered to exclude a clinically meaningful reduction, and these findings are hypothesis-generating rather than conclusive.

Importance Elevated low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) is a modifiable risk factor for cardiovascular disease, the leading cause of premature death worldwide. Assessing the LDL-C–related burden is critical for guiding prevention and treatment strategies. Objectives To estimate the global, regional, and national burden of ischemic heart disease and ischemic stroke attributable to elevated LDL-C (relative to 35-54 mg/dL) from 1990 to 2023 and to quantify the contributions of population growth, aging, risk-deleted burden, and exposure changes to burden trends. Design, Setting, and Population This comparative risk assessment, part of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023, estimated population-level LDL-C exposure and associated health loss in 204 countries and territories. Mean LDL-C levels were estimated using spatiotemporal gaussian process regression based on 806 studies across 161 countries. Relative risks were derived from meta-analyses of 38 randomized clinical trials. Population-attributable fractions for deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were estimated by age and sex for adults aged 25 years or older from 1990 to 2023, with 95% uncertainty intervals. Exposure Population-level LDL-C concentrations. Main Outcomes and Measures Population-attributable fractions, counts, and rates (all ages and age standardized per 100 000) of LDL-C–attributable deaths and DALYs from ischemic heart disease and ischemic stroke, with uncertainty intervals. Results In 2023, elevated LDL-C accounted for 3.6 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval, 2.2-5.4 million; 6.0% of global mortality) and 90.7 million DALYs (95% uncertainty interval, 58.9-123.3 million; 3.2% of DALYs). Although global all-ages rates remained stable, age-standardized death and DALY rates decreased by 45.6% and 39.5%, respectively, since 1990. In 2023, age-standardized LDL-C–attributable DALY rates were highest in Eastern Europe and lowest in high-income Asia-Pacific. One-third of the global LDL-C burden occurred in India and China. Population growth and aging drove the increasing burden, with notable regional disparities in LDL-C exposure and risk-deleted DALY rates shifting toward middle-sociodemographic settings. Conclusions and Relevance Despite declining age-standardized rates, the absolute LDL-C burden has increased since 1990 due to demographic changes and has shifted toward middle-sociodemographic countries. Measurement and surveillance gaps persist. Strengthened prevention, diagnosis, and treatment access strategies are essential to mitigate the health burden of LDL-C.

Abstract Citation-prediction studies often estimate citation counts using information unavailable at publication. We evaluated whether citation-risk outcomes can be predicted using only publication-time information: metadata, references, author history, and text available on or before publication. We assembled 9,424 original-research articles published from 2017 to 2022 across seven clinical gastroenterology journals using OpenAlex and PubMed. The primary reference-observed cohort included 8,409 articles with a parsed reference list. The primary outcome was ≤ 3 citations within 2 years; secondary outcomes were 0 citations within 3 years, ≤ 3 citations within 3 years, and > 20 citations within 2 years. Models compared a nonsemantic citation/reference/context baseline, author-history variables, whole-document title/abstract embeddings, role-segmented source-text embeddings, and reference-context distributional features. Evaluation used two held-out publication-year folds with PR-AUC, or area under the precision-recall curve, F1, and precision among the top-ranked 10% of predictions. For the primary outcome, the nonsemantic baseline achieved PR-AUC 0.818, F1 0.722, and precision@10% 0.935. Adding whole-document embeddings improved performance to 0.828, 0.735, and 0.962, respectively. Structure-aware features did not improve the primary outcome but provided endpoint-specific gains for secondary outcomes. Author-history features showed standalone signal but did not improve the baseline. Pooled performance exceeded journal-local performance, indicating that citation-risk signal operated at the corpus level. These findings support publication-time-valid citation-risk modeling as a reproducible framework for studying evidence visibility within bounded literatures and motivate replication across other journal sets, specialties, and publication eras.

INTRODUCTION: Safety and effectiveness of treating to target mucosal healing in older patients with Crohn's disease (CD) is unknown. METHODS: We analyzed CD-related complications by 24 months in the randomized evaluation of an algorithm for Crohn's treatment—study 2-2 trial that randomized practices to an enhanced-care or step-care algorithm to determine whether patient age modifies the effect of treatment. Data were analyzed using marginal Cox regression and modified Poisson regression. RESULTS: There was no difference in treatment between younger and older patients in at 24 months. DISCUSSION: Enhanced-care was effective and not associated with increased risk compared with step-care in older patients with CD.

ABSTRACT We conducted a USA claims‐based cohort study in 20,705 patients with inflammatory bowel diseases (IBD) on advanced therapies to estimate the overall and comparative risk of tuberculosis between advanced therapies using inverse probability of treatment weighted Cox proportional hazards model. The incidence rate (IR, per 100,000 person‐years) of tuberculosis with TNF antagonists ( n = 9378) and non‐TNF‐targeting biologics (anti‐integrins [ n = 5877], anti‐interleukins [ n = 5450]) was similar (38 [95% CI, 8–69] vs. 33[7–59]). Adjusting for covariates, risk of tuberculosis was similar (HR, 1.16 [0.41–3.31]). In low incidence regions like USA, the incidence of tuberculosis after starting advanced therapies for IBD is very low, and comparable across advanced therapies.

INTRODUCTION: We conducted a retrospective cohort study comparing the safety of advanced therapies in patients with ulcerative colitis (UC). METHODS: Using an administrative claims database (OptumLabs Data Warehouse), we identified patients with UC who initiated treatment with tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF) antagonists, anti-integrin agents, anti-interleukin, Janus kinase inhibitors (JAK), or sphingosine-1 phosphate receptor modulators between 2016 and 2022 and had followed up for at least 1 year before and after treatment initiation. We compared the risk of serious infections, venous thromboembolism, and major adverse cardiovascular events through multinomial propensity score-based inverse probability weighting, with propensity scores estimated through generalized boosted models that accounted for disease characteristics, healthcare utilization, comorbidities, and previous and concomitant medications, and the competing risk of mortality. We calculated cause-specific hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals for multiple treatment comparisons. RESULTS: We included 9,430 patients with UC treated with TNF antagonists (n = 4,111), anti-integrins (n = 3,165), anti-ILs (n = 1,342), JAK inhibitors (n = 701), or sphingosine-1 phosphate receptor modulators (n = 111), followed over median 27 months. After adjusting for confounding variables, anti-ILs were associated with a lower risk of serious infections compared with TNF antagonists (HR, 0.66 [95% confidence interval, 0.51–0.87]) and anti-integrins (HR, 0.75 [0.57–0.98]). JAK inhibitors were associated with a lower risk of serious infections compared with TNF antagonists (HR, 0.66 [0.46–0.94]). The incidence of venous thromboembolism (incidence rate, 1.4–2.0 per 100 py) and major adverse cardiovascular event (0.5–1.0 per 100 py) was very low, without any significant differences across agents. DISCUSSION: In a real-world cohort of patients with UC, anti-ILs and JAK inhibitors were associated with a lower risk of serious infections and may offer net benefit, especially in patients with previous TNF antagonist exposure.

ABSTRACT Background Advanced therapies increase the risk of shingles in inflammatory bowel diseases (IBD). Aim To compare the risk of shingles with different advanced therapies in patients with IBD. Methods We identified patients with IBD who initiated treatment with tumour necrosis factor (TNF) antagonists, anti‐integrins, anti‐interleukins, Janus kinase (JAK) inhibitors, or sphingosine‐1 phosphate receptor (S1PR) modulators between 2016 and 2022 and had follow‐up for at least 1 year before and after treatment initiation. We estimated the incidence rate (IR per 100 person‐year [PY]) of shingles (overall and complicated) and compared the risk with different advanced therapies through multinomial propensity score‐based inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW), with propensity scores estimated through generalised boosted models, accounting for disease characteristics, healthcare utilisation, comorbidities and prior and concomitant medications. Weighted Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for multiple treatment comparisons. Results We included 21,675 patients followed over 27 months. IRs per 100 PY of shingles and complicated shingles were: TNF antagonists 1.0/0.3, anti‐integrin agents 1.4/0.4, anti‐interleukins 1.2/0.5, JAK inhibitors 3.3/0.9 and S1PR modulators 2.0/1.0. After adjusting for confounding variables, JAK inhibitors were associated with higher risks of shingles than TNF antagonists (HR 2.19; 1.28–3.75), anti‐integrins (HR 1.87; 1.12–3.14) and anti‐interleukins (HR 1.70; 0.98–2.96). Conclusions JAK inhibitors were associated with 1.7–2.2‐fold higher risk of shingles than other advanced therapies.

Introduction Targeted immunomodulators (eg, advanced therapies) effectively achieve symptomatic remission in patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). However, ~25%–50% of patients with IBD achieving symptomatic remission with an advanced therapy may have continued endoscopically/radiologically active bowel inflammation, and it is uncertain whether changing alternative advanced therapies in asymptomatic patients with IBD will reduce bowel inflammation and achieve durable deep remission. Methods and analysis The QUality Outcomes Treating IBD to Target (QUOTIENT) study is an open-label, multicentre, pragmatic, randomised, controlled trial that aims to compare the efficacy and safety of switching to an alternative advanced therapy targeting endoscopic/radiological remission (treat-to-target) versus continuing the initial, or index, advanced therapy, in asymptomatic patients with IBD with moderate-to-severe endoscopic/radiological bowel inflammation. Enrolment is planned for ~250 participants in Canada/USA, randomised 1:1 to switching to alternative advanced therapy or continuing index advanced therapy, and then followed 104 weeks within routine clinical practice. Patient-reported outcomes measure efficacy and quality of life/treatment burden/safety. Primary endpoint is the time from randomisation to treatment failure. Ethics and dissemination The study is conducted in compliance with the protocol, ICH Good Clinical Practice, applicable regulatory requirements and appropriate review boards/independent ethics committees (approval numbers: Pro00077486; Pro00061437; STUDY00002062; 22-004171; i22-01269; IRB22-0890; IRB_00154397; 2000032384; SHIRB#2022.095-2; STUDY00007146; MMC#2024-18; REB#125290; 17784; Pro00142214; 20240660-01H), with documented written informed consent. Findings will be disseminated through peer-reviewed journals, scientific presentations, and publicly available Patient-Centered Outcomes Research Institute (PCORI) websites, including lay summaries. The Crohn’s & Colitis Foundation Education, Support, and Advocacy Department, and our patient advocacy stakeholder, will develop educational and marketing resources to communicate findings to a broad audience (>250 000 patients/caregivers/healthcare professionals). Trial registration number NCT05230173 .