Stark, Benjamin

Importance Elevated low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) is a modifiable risk factor for cardiovascular disease, the leading cause of premature death worldwide. Assessing the LDL-C–related burden is critical for guiding prevention and treatment strategies. Objectives To estimate the global, regional, and national burden of ischemic heart disease and ischemic stroke attributable to elevated LDL-C (relative to 35-54 mg/dL) from 1990 to 2023 and to quantify the contributions of population growth, aging, risk-deleted burden, and exposure changes to burden trends. Design, Setting, and Population This comparative risk assessment, part of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023, estimated population-level LDL-C exposure and associated health loss in 204 countries and territories. Mean LDL-C levels were estimated using spatiotemporal gaussian process regression based on 806 studies across 161 countries. Relative risks were derived from meta-analyses of 38 randomized clinical trials. Population-attributable fractions for deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were estimated by age and sex for adults aged 25 years or older from 1990 to 2023, with 95% uncertainty intervals. Exposure Population-level LDL-C concentrations. Main Outcomes and Measures Population-attributable fractions, counts, and rates (all ages and age standardized per 100 000) of LDL-C–attributable deaths and DALYs from ischemic heart disease and ischemic stroke, with uncertainty intervals. Results In 2023, elevated LDL-C accounted for 3.6 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval, 2.2-5.4 million; 6.0% of global mortality) and 90.7 million DALYs (95% uncertainty interval, 58.9-123.3 million; 3.2% of DALYs). Although global all-ages rates remained stable, age-standardized death and DALY rates decreased by 45.6% and 39.5%, respectively, since 1990. In 2023, age-standardized LDL-C–attributable DALY rates were highest in Eastern Europe and lowest in high-income Asia-Pacific. One-third of the global LDL-C burden occurred in India and China. Population growth and aging drove the increasing burden, with notable regional disparities in LDL-C exposure and risk-deleted DALY rates shifting toward middle-sociodemographic settings. Conclusions and Relevance Despite declining age-standardized rates, the absolute LDL-C burden has increased since 1990 due to demographic changes and has shifted toward middle-sociodemographic countries. Measurement and surveillance gaps persist. Strengthened prevention, diagnosis, and treatment access strategies are essential to mitigate the health burden of LDL-C.

Importance Ischemic heart disease (IHD), the leading cause of death in the US, is predominantly due to modifiable risk factors. Estimates of IHD mortality attributable to risk factors provide evidence for health policy decision-making. Objective To estimate the burden of IHD death attributable to risk factors in the US from 1990-2023. Design, Setting, and Participants The Global Burden of Disease Study 2023 (GBD 2023) used vital records and a broad set of epidemiologic data to estimate IHD death rates, risk factor exposure, and relative risk curves for risk-outcome pairs for 1990-2023 for the general population. Data analysis was performed from October 2024 to December 2025. Exposure Twelve metabolic, behavioral, and environmental risk factors. Main Outcomes and Measures The primary outcomes were IHD death rates per 100 000 persons, counts, and attributable risks from 1990-2023 by age, sex, and US state. Estimates include 95% uncertainty intervals (UI). IHD death rates were estimated using ensemble modeling methods. Risk exposures were estimated using bayesian meta-regression methods. Relative risks were estimated following the Burden of Proof framework. Results In 2023, there were 473 000 IHD deaths (95% UI, 414 000-510 000) in the US, a decrease of 58.7% (95% UI, 56.8%-61.0%) in age-standardized rate since 1990. Between 2010 and 2023, there was a 19.0% decrease (95% UI, 15.0%-22.9%) for males and a 24.5% decrease (95% UI, 20.3%-29.7%) for females in IHD death rates. High systolic blood pressure (SBP), dietary risks, and high low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) were the leading risk factors for IHD deaths in 2023, accounting for 47.2% (95% UI, 36.4%-57.0%), 38.6% (95% UI, 17.2%-56.8%), and 28.5% (95% UI, 19.3%-39.6%) of IHD deaths, respectively. Increased exposure to several risk factors substantially increased their attributable burden for IHD deaths in 2023, with high fasting plasma glucose (FPG) increasing 38.8% (95% UI, 11.5%-81.1%) and high body mass index (BMI) increasing 54.5% (95% UI, 41.8%-66.3%) since 1990. Smoking and particulate matter pollution had the greatest decrease in attributable IHD mortality since 1990, at 33.3% (95% UI, 23.6%-41.7%) and 74.9% (95% UI, 46.7%-88.8%), respectively. Conclusion and Relevance Per the results of this systematic analysis of GBD 2023, a total of 88.7% (95% UI, 83.4%-92.5%) of IHD deaths were attributable to modifiable risk factors in the US in 2023, with high SBP, dietary risks, and high LDL-C being the greatest contributors. High BMI and high FPG showed the largest attribution increases, while exposure to other risks did not increase significantly for the population.

Importance Nontraumatic subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) represents the third most common stroke type with unique etiologies, risk factors, diagnostics, and treatments. Nevertheless, epidemiological studies often cluster SAH with other stroke types leaving its distinct burden estimates obscure. Objective To estimate the worldwide burden of SAH. Design, Setting, and Participants Based on the repeated cross-sectional Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study, the global burden of SAH in 1990 to 2021 was estimated. Moreover, the SAH burden was compared with other diseases, and its associations with 14 individual risk factors were investigated with available data in the GBD 2021 study. The GBD study included the burden estimates of nontraumatic SAH among all ages in 204 countries and territories between 1990 and 2021. Exposures SAH and 14 modifiable risk factors. Main Outcomes and Measures Absolute numbers and age-standardized rates with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) of SAH incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) as well as risk factor–specific population attributable fractions (PAFs). Results In 2021, the global age-standardized SAH incidence was 8.3 (95% UI, 7.3-9.5), prevalence was 92.2 (95% UI, 84.1-100.6), mortality was 4.2 (95% UI, 3.7-4.8), and DALY rate was 125.2 (95% UI, 110.5-142.6) per 100 000 people. The highest burden estimates were found in Latin America, the Caribbean, Oceania, and high-income Asia Pacific. Although the absolute number of SAH cases increased, especially in regions with a low sociodemographic index, all age-standardized burden rates decreased between 1990 and 2021: the incidence by 28.8% (95% UI, 25.7%-31.6%), prevalence by 16.1% (95% UI, 14.8%-17.7%), mortality by 56.1% (95% UI, 40.7%-64.3%), and DALY rate by 54.6% (95% UI, 42.8%-61.9%). Of 300 diseases, SAH ranked as the 36th most common cause of death and 59th most common cause of DALY in the world. Of all worldwide SAH-related DALYs, 71.6% (95% UI, 63.8%-78.6%) were associated with the 14 modeled risk factors of which high systolic blood pressure (population attributable fraction [PAF] = 51.6%; 95% UI, 38.0%-62.6%) and smoking (PAF = 14.4%; 95% UI, 12.4%-16.5%) had the highest attribution. Conclusions and Relevance Although the global age-standardized burden rates of SAH more than halved over the last 3 decades, SAH remained one of the most common cardiovascular and neurological causes of death and disabilities in the world, with increasing absolute case numbers. These findings suggest evidence for the potential health benefits of proactive public health planning and resource allocation toward the prevention of SAH.