Negoi, Ionuţ

Importance Elevated low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) is a modifiable risk factor for cardiovascular disease, the leading cause of premature death worldwide. Assessing the LDL-C–related burden is critical for guiding prevention and treatment strategies. Objectives To estimate the global, regional, and national burden of ischemic heart disease and ischemic stroke attributable to elevated LDL-C (relative to 35-54 mg/dL) from 1990 to 2023 and to quantify the contributions of population growth, aging, risk-deleted burden, and exposure changes to burden trends. Design, Setting, and Population This comparative risk assessment, part of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023, estimated population-level LDL-C exposure and associated health loss in 204 countries and territories. Mean LDL-C levels were estimated using spatiotemporal gaussian process regression based on 806 studies across 161 countries. Relative risks were derived from meta-analyses of 38 randomized clinical trials. Population-attributable fractions for deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were estimated by age and sex for adults aged 25 years or older from 1990 to 2023, with 95% uncertainty intervals. Exposure Population-level LDL-C concentrations. Main Outcomes and Measures Population-attributable fractions, counts, and rates (all ages and age standardized per 100 000) of LDL-C–attributable deaths and DALYs from ischemic heart disease and ischemic stroke, with uncertainty intervals. Results In 2023, elevated LDL-C accounted for 3.6 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval, 2.2-5.4 million; 6.0% of global mortality) and 90.7 million DALYs (95% uncertainty interval, 58.9-123.3 million; 3.2% of DALYs). Although global all-ages rates remained stable, age-standardized death and DALY rates decreased by 45.6% and 39.5%, respectively, since 1990. In 2023, age-standardized LDL-C–attributable DALY rates were highest in Eastern Europe and lowest in high-income Asia-Pacific. One-third of the global LDL-C burden occurred in India and China. Population growth and aging drove the increasing burden, with notable regional disparities in LDL-C exposure and risk-deleted DALY rates shifting toward middle-sociodemographic settings. Conclusions and Relevance Despite declining age-standardized rates, the absolute LDL-C burden has increased since 1990 due to demographic changes and has shifted toward middle-sociodemographic countries. Measurement and surveillance gaps persist. Strengthened prevention, diagnosis, and treatment access strategies are essential to mitigate the health burden of LDL-C.

Background While there is a long history of measuring death and disability from injuries, modern research methods must account for the wide spectrum of disability that can occur in an injury, and must provide estimates with sufficient demographic, geographical and temporal detail to be useful for policy makers. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study used methods to provide highly detailed estimates of global injury burden that meet these criteria. Methods In this study, we report and discuss the methods used in GBD 2017 for injury morbidity and mortality burden estimation. In summary, these methods included estimating cause-specific mortality for every cause of injury, and then estimating incidence for every cause of injury. Non-fatal disability for each cause is then calculated based on the probabilities of suffering from different types of bodily injury experienced. Results GBD 2017 produced morbidity and mortality estimates for 38 causes of injury. Estimates were produced in terms of incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability, cause-specific mortality, years of life lost and disability-adjusted life-years for a 28-year period for 22 age groups, 195 countries and both sexes. Conclusions GBD 2017 demonstrated a complex and sophisticated series of analytical steps using the largest known database of morbidity and mortality data on injuries. GBD 2017 results should be used to help inform injury prevention policy making and resource allocation. We also identify important avenues for improving injury burden estimation in the future.

Background Past research in population health trends has shown that injuries form a substantial burden of population health loss. Regular updates to injury burden assessments are critical. We report Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 Study estimates on morbidity and mortality for all injuries. Methods We reviewed results for injuries from the GBD 2017 study. GBD 2017 measured injury-specific mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) using the Cause of Death Ensemble model. To measure non-fatal injuries, GBD 2017 modelled injury-specific incidence and converted this to prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs). YLLs and YLDs were summed to calculate disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Findings In 1990, there were 4 260 493 (4 085 700 to 4 396 138) injury deaths, which increased to 4 484 722 (4 332 010 to 4 585 554) deaths in 2017, while age-standardised mortality decreased from 1079 (1073 to 1086) to 738 (730 to 745) per 100 000. In 1990, there were 354 064 302 (95% uncertainty interval: 338 174 876 to 371 610 802) new cases of injury globally, which increased to 520 710 288 (493 430 247 to 547 988 635) new cases in 2017. During this time, age-standardised incidence decreased non-significantly from 6824 (6534 to 7147) to 6763 (6412 to 7118) per 100 000. Between 1990 and 2017, age-standardised DALYs decreased from 4947 (4655 to 5233) per 100 000 to 3267 (3058 to 3505). Interpretation Injuries are an important cause of health loss globally, though mortality has declined between 1990 and 2017. Future research in injury burden should focus on prevention in high-burden populations, improving data collection and ensuring access to medical care.

Objective This study aimed to develop and validate a patient-reported outcome measure (PROM) in acute pancreatitis (AP) as an endpoint centred on the patient. Design A PROM instrument (PAtieNt-rePoRted OutcoMe scale in acute pancreatItis, an international proSpEctive cohort study, PAN-PROMISE scale) was designed based on the opinion of patients, professionals and an expert panel. The scale was validated in an international multicentre prospective cohort study, describing the severity of AP and quality of life at 15 days after discharge as the main variables for validation. The COSMIN (COnsensus-based Standards for the selection of health status Measurement INstruments) methodology was applied. Both the design and validation stages considered the content and face validity of this new instrument; the metric properties of the different items, reliability (reproducibility and internal consistence), the construct, structural and criterion validity, responsiveness and interpretability of this scale. Results PAN-PROMISE consists of a seven-item scale based on the symptoms that cause the most discomfort and concern to patients with AP. The validation cohort involved 15 countries, 524 patients. The intensity of symptoms changed from higher values during the first 24 hours to lower values at discharge and 15 days thereafter. Items converged into a unidimensional ordinal scale with good fit indices. Internal consistency and split-half reliability at discharge were adequate. Reproducibility was confirmed using test–retest reliability and comparing the PAN-PROMISE score at discharge and 15 days after discharge. Evidence is also provided for the convergent-discriminant and empirical validity of the scale. Conclusion The PAN-PROMISE scale is a useful tool to be used as an endpoint in clinical trials, and to quantify patient well-being during the hospital admission and follow-up. Trial registration number NCT03650062

Background The epidemiological transition of non-communicable diseases replacing infectious diseases as the main contributors to disease burden has been well documented in global health literature. Less focus, however, has been given to the relationship between sociodemographic changes and injury. The aim of this study was to examine the association between disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from injury for 195 countries and territories at different levels along the development spectrum between 1990 and 2017 based on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 estimates. Methods Injury mortality was estimated using the GBD mortality database, corrections for garbage coding and CODEm—the cause of death ensemble modelling tool. Morbidity estimation was based on surveys and inpatient and outpatient data sets for 30 cause-of-injury with 47 nature-of-injury categories each. The Socio-demographic Index (SDI) is a composite indicator that includes lagged income per capita, average educational attainment over age 15 years and total fertility rate. Results For many causes of injury, age-standardised DALY rates declined with increasing SDI, although road injury, interpersonal violence and self-harm did not follow this pattern. Particularly for self-harm opposing patterns were observed in regions with similar SDI levels. For road injuries, this effect was less pronounced. Conclusions The overall global pattern is that of declining injury burden with increasing SDI. However, not all injuries follow this pattern, which suggests multiple underlying mechanisms influencing injury DALYs. There is a need for a detailed understanding of these patterns to help to inform national and global efforts to address injury-related health outcomes across the development spectrum.

Background Past research has shown how fires, heat and hot substances are important causes of health loss globally. Detailed estimates of the morbidity and mortality from these injuries could help drive preventative measures and improved access to care. Methods We used the Global Burden of Disease 2017 framework to produce three main results. First, we produced results on incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability, deaths, years of life lost and disability-adjusted life years from 1990 to 2017 for 195 countries and territories. Second, we analysed these results to measure mortality-to-incidence ratios by location. Third, we reported the measures above in terms of the cause of fire, heat and hot substances and the types of bodily injuries that result. Results Globally, there were 8 991 468 (7 481 218 to 10 740 897) new fire, heat and hot substance injuries in 2017 with 120 632 (101 630 to 129 383) deaths. At the global level, the age-standardised mortality caused by fire, heat and hot substances significantly declined from 1990 to 2017, but regionally there was variability in age-standardised incidence with some regions experiencing an increase (eg, Southern Latin America) and others experiencing a significant decrease (eg, High-income North America). Conclusions The incidence and mortality of injuries that result from fire, heat and hot substances affect every region of the world but are most concentrated in middle and lower income areas. More resources should be invested in measuring these injuries as well as in improving infrastructure, advancing safety measures and ensuring access to care.

AbstractBackgroundThe American Association for the Surgery of Trauma (AAST) anatomic severity grading system for adhesive small bowel obstruction (ASBO) has demonstrated to be a valid tool in North American patient populations. Using a multi‐national patient cohort, we retrospectively assessed the validity the AAST ASBO grading system and estimated disease severity in a global population in order to correlate with several key clinical outcomes.MethodsMulticenter retrospective review during 2012–2016 from four centers, Minnesota USA, Bologna Italy, Pietermaritzburg South Africa, and Bucharest Romania, was performed. Adult patients (age ≥ 18) with ASBO were identified. Baseline demographics, physiologic parameters, laboratory results, operative and imaging details, outcomes were collected. AAST ASBO grades were assigned by independent reviewers. Univariate and multivariable analyses with odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were performed.ResultsThere were 789 patients with a median [IQR] age of 58 [40–75] years; 47% were female. The AAST ASBO grades were I (n = 180, 23%), II (n = 443, 56%), III (n = 87, 11%), and IV (n = 79, 10%). Successful non‐operative management was 58%. Conversion rate from laparoscopy to laparotomy was 33%. Overall mortality and complication and temporary abdominal closure rates were 2, 46, and 4.7%, respectively. On regression, independent predictors for mortality included grade III (OR 4.4 95%CI 1.1–7.3), grade IV (OR 7.4 95%CI 1.7–9.4), pneumonia (OR 5.6 95%CI 1.4–11.3), and failing non‐operative management (OR 2.4 95%CI 1.3–6.7).ConclusionThe AAST EGS grade can be assigned with ease at any surgical facility using operative or imaging findings. The AAST ASBO severity grading system has predictive validity for important clinical outcomes and allows for standardization across institutions, providers, and future research. Disease severity and outcomes varied between countries.Level of evidence IIIStudy type Retrospective multi‐institutional cohort study.