Yano, Yuichiro

Importance Elevated low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) is a modifiable risk factor for cardiovascular disease, the leading cause of premature death worldwide. Assessing the LDL-C–related burden is critical for guiding prevention and treatment strategies. Objectives To estimate the global, regional, and national burden of ischemic heart disease and ischemic stroke attributable to elevated LDL-C (relative to 35-54 mg/dL) from 1990 to 2023 and to quantify the contributions of population growth, aging, risk-deleted burden, and exposure changes to burden trends. Design, Setting, and Population This comparative risk assessment, part of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023, estimated population-level LDL-C exposure and associated health loss in 204 countries and territories. Mean LDL-C levels were estimated using spatiotemporal gaussian process regression based on 806 studies across 161 countries. Relative risks were derived from meta-analyses of 38 randomized clinical trials. Population-attributable fractions for deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were estimated by age and sex for adults aged 25 years or older from 1990 to 2023, with 95% uncertainty intervals. Exposure Population-level LDL-C concentrations. Main Outcomes and Measures Population-attributable fractions, counts, and rates (all ages and age standardized per 100 000) of LDL-C–attributable deaths and DALYs from ischemic heart disease and ischemic stroke, with uncertainty intervals. Results In 2023, elevated LDL-C accounted for 3.6 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval, 2.2-5.4 million; 6.0% of global mortality) and 90.7 million DALYs (95% uncertainty interval, 58.9-123.3 million; 3.2% of DALYs). Although global all-ages rates remained stable, age-standardized death and DALY rates decreased by 45.6% and 39.5%, respectively, since 1990. In 2023, age-standardized LDL-C–attributable DALY rates were highest in Eastern Europe and lowest in high-income Asia-Pacific. One-third of the global LDL-C burden occurred in India and China. Population growth and aging drove the increasing burden, with notable regional disparities in LDL-C exposure and risk-deleted DALY rates shifting toward middle-sociodemographic settings. Conclusions and Relevance Despite declining age-standardized rates, the absolute LDL-C burden has increased since 1990 due to demographic changes and has shifted toward middle-sociodemographic countries. Measurement and surveillance gaps persist. Strengthened prevention, diagnosis, and treatment access strategies are essential to mitigate the health burden of LDL-C.

Importance Nontraumatic subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) represents the third most common stroke type with unique etiologies, risk factors, diagnostics, and treatments. Nevertheless, epidemiological studies often cluster SAH with other stroke types leaving its distinct burden estimates obscure. Objective To estimate the worldwide burden of SAH. Design, Setting, and Participants Based on the repeated cross-sectional Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study, the global burden of SAH in 1990 to 2021 was estimated. Moreover, the SAH burden was compared with other diseases, and its associations with 14 individual risk factors were investigated with available data in the GBD 2021 study. The GBD study included the burden estimates of nontraumatic SAH among all ages in 204 countries and territories between 1990 and 2021. Exposures SAH and 14 modifiable risk factors. Main Outcomes and Measures Absolute numbers and age-standardized rates with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) of SAH incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) as well as risk factor–specific population attributable fractions (PAFs). Results In 2021, the global age-standardized SAH incidence was 8.3 (95% UI, 7.3-9.5), prevalence was 92.2 (95% UI, 84.1-100.6), mortality was 4.2 (95% UI, 3.7-4.8), and DALY rate was 125.2 (95% UI, 110.5-142.6) per 100 000 people. The highest burden estimates were found in Latin America, the Caribbean, Oceania, and high-income Asia Pacific. Although the absolute number of SAH cases increased, especially in regions with a low sociodemographic index, all age-standardized burden rates decreased between 1990 and 2021: the incidence by 28.8% (95% UI, 25.7%-31.6%), prevalence by 16.1% (95% UI, 14.8%-17.7%), mortality by 56.1% (95% UI, 40.7%-64.3%), and DALY rate by 54.6% (95% UI, 42.8%-61.9%). Of 300 diseases, SAH ranked as the 36th most common cause of death and 59th most common cause of DALY in the world. Of all worldwide SAH-related DALYs, 71.6% (95% UI, 63.8%-78.6%) were associated with the 14 modeled risk factors of which high systolic blood pressure (population attributable fraction [PAF] = 51.6%; 95% UI, 38.0%-62.6%) and smoking (PAF = 14.4%; 95% UI, 12.4%-16.5%) had the highest attribution. Conclusions and Relevance Although the global age-standardized burden rates of SAH more than halved over the last 3 decades, SAH remained one of the most common cardiovascular and neurological causes of death and disabilities in the world, with increasing absolute case numbers. These findings suggest evidence for the potential health benefits of proactive public health planning and resource allocation toward the prevention of SAH.

Background While there is a long history of measuring death and disability from injuries, modern research methods must account for the wide spectrum of disability that can occur in an injury, and must provide estimates with sufficient demographic, geographical and temporal detail to be useful for policy makers. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study used methods to provide highly detailed estimates of global injury burden that meet these criteria. Methods In this study, we report and discuss the methods used in GBD 2017 for injury morbidity and mortality burden estimation. In summary, these methods included estimating cause-specific mortality for every cause of injury, and then estimating incidence for every cause of injury. Non-fatal disability for each cause is then calculated based on the probabilities of suffering from different types of bodily injury experienced. Results GBD 2017 produced morbidity and mortality estimates for 38 causes of injury. Estimates were produced in terms of incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability, cause-specific mortality, years of life lost and disability-adjusted life-years for a 28-year period for 22 age groups, 195 countries and both sexes. Conclusions GBD 2017 demonstrated a complex and sophisticated series of analytical steps using the largest known database of morbidity and mortality data on injuries. GBD 2017 results should be used to help inform injury prevention policy making and resource allocation. We also identify important avenues for improving injury burden estimation in the future.

Background Past research in population health trends has shown that injuries form a substantial burden of population health loss. Regular updates to injury burden assessments are critical. We report Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 Study estimates on morbidity and mortality for all injuries. Methods We reviewed results for injuries from the GBD 2017 study. GBD 2017 measured injury-specific mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) using the Cause of Death Ensemble model. To measure non-fatal injuries, GBD 2017 modelled injury-specific incidence and converted this to prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs). YLLs and YLDs were summed to calculate disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Findings In 1990, there were 4 260 493 (4 085 700 to 4 396 138) injury deaths, which increased to 4 484 722 (4 332 010 to 4 585 554) deaths in 2017, while age-standardised mortality decreased from 1079 (1073 to 1086) to 738 (730 to 745) per 100 000. In 1990, there were 354 064 302 (95% uncertainty interval: 338 174 876 to 371 610 802) new cases of injury globally, which increased to 520 710 288 (493 430 247 to 547 988 635) new cases in 2017. During this time, age-standardised incidence decreased non-significantly from 6824 (6534 to 7147) to 6763 (6412 to 7118) per 100 000. Between 1990 and 2017, age-standardised DALYs decreased from 4947 (4655 to 5233) per 100 000 to 3267 (3058 to 3505). Interpretation Injuries are an important cause of health loss globally, though mortality has declined between 1990 and 2017. Future research in injury burden should focus on prevention in high-burden populations, improving data collection and ensuring access to medical care.

Importance Black individuals are more likely than white individuals to develop dementia. Whether higher blood pressure (BP) levels in black individuals explain differences between black and white individuals in dementia risk is uncertain. Objective To determine whether cumulative BP levels explain racial differences in cognitive decline. Design, Setting, and Participants Individual participant data from 5 cohorts (January 1971 to December 2017) were pooled from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study, Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults Study, Cardiovascular Health Study, Framingham Offspring Study, and Northern Manhattan Study. Outcomes were standardized as t scores (mean [SD], 50 [10]); a 1-point difference represented a 0.1-SD difference in cognition. The median (interquartile range) follow-up was 12.4 (5.9-21.0) years. Analysis began September 2018. Main Outcomes and Measures The primary outcome was change in global cognition, and secondary outcomes were change in memory and executive function. Exposures Race (black vs white). Results Among 34 349 participants, 19 378 individuals who were free of stroke and dementia and had longitudinal BP, cognitive, and covariate data were included in the analysis. The mean (SD) age at first cognitive assessment was 59.8 (10.4) years and ranged from 5 to 95 years. Of 19 378 individuals, 10 724 (55.3%) were female and 15 526 (80.1%) were white. Compared with white individuals, black individuals had significantly faster declines in global cognition (−0.03 points per year faster [95% CI, −0.05 to −0.01]; P = .004) and memory (−0.08 points per year faster [95% CI, −0.11 to −0.06]; P < .001) but significantly slower declines in executive function (0.09 points per year slower [95% CI, 0.08-0.10]; P < .001). Time-dependent cumulative mean systolic BP level was associated with significantly faster declines in global cognition (−0.018 points per year faster per each 10–mm Hg increase [95% CI, −0.023 to −0.014]; P < .001), memory (−0.028 points per year faster per each 10–mm Hg increase [95% CI, −0.035 to −0.021]; P < .001), and executive function (−0.01 points per year faster per each 10–mm Hg increase [95% CI, −0.014 to −0.007]; P < .001). After adjusting for cumulative mean systolic BP, differences between black and white individuals in cognitive slopes were attenuated for global cognition (−0.01 points per year [95% CI, −0.03 to 0.01]; P = .56) and memory (−0.06 points per year [95% CI, −0.08 to −0.03]; P < .001) but not executive function (0.10 points per year [95% CI, 0.09-0.11]; P < .001). Conclusions and Relevance These results suggest that black individuals’ higher cumulative BP levels may contribute to racial differences in later-life cognitive decline.

Background The epidemiological transition of non-communicable diseases replacing infectious diseases as the main contributors to disease burden has been well documented in global health literature. Less focus, however, has been given to the relationship between sociodemographic changes and injury. The aim of this study was to examine the association between disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from injury for 195 countries and territories at different levels along the development spectrum between 1990 and 2017 based on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 estimates. Methods Injury mortality was estimated using the GBD mortality database, corrections for garbage coding and CODEm—the cause of death ensemble modelling tool. Morbidity estimation was based on surveys and inpatient and outpatient data sets for 30 cause-of-injury with 47 nature-of-injury categories each. The Socio-demographic Index (SDI) is a composite indicator that includes lagged income per capita, average educational attainment over age 15 years and total fertility rate. Results For many causes of injury, age-standardised DALY rates declined with increasing SDI, although road injury, interpersonal violence and self-harm did not follow this pattern. Particularly for self-harm opposing patterns were observed in regions with similar SDI levels. For road injuries, this effect was less pronounced. Conclusions The overall global pattern is that of declining injury burden with increasing SDI. However, not all injuries follow this pattern, which suggests multiple underlying mechanisms influencing injury DALYs. There is a need for a detailed understanding of these patterns to help to inform national and global efforts to address injury-related health outcomes across the development spectrum.

Background: High blood pressure (BP), particularly in mid-life, increases the risk for late-life cognitive impairment and dementia (CID). The extent to which Blacks’ and Hispanics’ worse BP control starting in young adulthood contributes to their greater risk of CID compared to Whites is uncertain. Objective: To describe a pooled, multi-ethnic cohort created to determine the associations between BP levels over the life course and CID risk in Blacks, Hispanics, and Whites. Methods: We pooled individual-level data from 35,473 adults (22.6% Blacks, 8.1% Hispanics, 67.3% Whites, 2% Other) with baseline age ≥18 and cognitive assessments across 6 longitudinal cohorts in the United States from 1971 to 2016: Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study (ARIC), Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults Study (CARDIA), Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS), Framingham Offspring Study (FOS), Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA), and Northern Manhattan Study (NOMAS). We harmonized cognitive tests across studies into 3 factors representing global cognitive performance, executive function, and memory using statistically appropriate confirmatory factor analysis. Mean (SD) follow up was 17.1 (10.9) years. Results: The mean (SD) baseline age was 54.3 (16.4) years and 19554 (55.1%) participants were female (Table). There were 3193 (9.0%) first incident strokes (2651 ischemic, 348 hemorrhagic, and 117 other or undetermined type) and 15147 (42.7%) deaths. The Table presents mean BPs at the first and last visits by cohort and the pooled sample. From the initial to the last assessment, mean global cognition decreased over time (p<0.001), as did mean executive function (p<0.001) and mean memory scores (p<0.001) in the pooled sample. Conclusion: This will be the first comprehensive, large investigation of the association of BP levels from young adulthood to late-life and CID risk in Blacks, Hispanics, and Whites.

Background Whether the association of blood pressure ( BP ) during sleep (nocturnal BP ) with cognition differs by race is unknown. Methods and Results Participants in the GENOA (Genetic Epidemiology Network of Arteriopathy) Study underwent ambulatory BP measurements, brain magnetic resonance imaging, and cognitive function testing (the Rey Auditory Verbal Learning Test, the Digit Symbol Substitution Task, and the Trail Making Test Part B) between 2000 and 2007. We examined multivariable linear regression models of the nocturnal BP ‐cognition association. Among 755 participants (mean age, 63 years; 64% women; 42% self‐identified black race; 76% taking antihypertensive medication), mean nocturnal systolic BP ( SBP )/diastolic BP was 126/69 mm Hg, daytime SBP / diastolic BP level was 139/82 mm Hg, and mean reduction in SBP from day to night (dipping) was 9%. Among the entire sample, a race interaction was observed in Digit Symbol Substitution Task and Trail Making Test Part B (both P <0.15). Race‐stratified analyses showed that a 1‐ SD increase in nocturnal SBP levels was associated with poorer Digit Symbol Substitution Task and log‐transformed Trail Making Test Part B scores (unstandardized regression coefficient [95% confidence interval ]: −1.98 [−3.28 to −0.69] and 0.06 [0.004–0.12]; both P< 0.05) in black but not white individuals. Additional adjustments for white matter hyperintensity volumes or brain atrophy, measured via brain magnetic resonance imaging, did not change the results. Results were similar when nocturnal SBP dipping was assessed as the exposure, yet daytime SBP levels yielded no association with cognition. Conclusions Nocturnal SBP measurements may be useful in assessing the potential risk for lower cognitive function in middle‐aged and older adults, particularly in black individuals.