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Background: To be useful across the broadest range of patients and clinical settings, clinical prediction models should be externally validated in different data sets and clinical settings and refined over time. In 2022, the HoLISTIC Consortium (www.hodgkinconsortium.org) developed and validated the A-HIPI model via TRIPOD guidelines for adults 18-65 with advanced stage classic Hodgkin Lymphoma (AS-HL) (Rodday et al., JCO 2023). The A-HIPI model, based on individual patient (pt) data from more than 5000 patients (pts) from North America, Europe, and Australia, predicts progression-free survival and overall survival within the first 5 years (PFS5 and OS5) based on pre-treatment pt and disease characteristics (www.qxmd.com/calculate/calculator_869/a-hipi). In collaboration with Brazilian clinical experts and researchers, we describe the performance of the A-HIPI in the Brazilian Prospective HL registry. Methods: The Brazilian Prospective HL registry (NCT02589548) was originally established in 2009 with the goal of evaluating risk factors, treatment, and disease outcomes. By 2022, 1357 pts with classic HL were registered with a median follow-up of 5 years for surviving patients (Biasoli I. HemaSphere 2022). 5-year PFS and OS were calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Using the methodology for validation and calibration outlined in by Rodday et al., calculated risk scores were calculated for PFS5 and OS5. Harrell c-statistic and the Uno c-statistic were calculated to evaluate discrimination (i.e., differentiation of those at higher risk of having an event from those at lower risk) and plots of deciles of predicted vs. observed outcomes were created to assess calibration (i.e., how similar the predicted absolute risk of the model is to the true (observed) risk in an external cohort). In the primary A-HIPI analysis, laboratory values outside of permitted range were excluded and not imputed. This was checked in sensitivity analysis using multiple imputation for missing values; no substantial differences were noted. Thus, in the current validation, out-of-range lab values were excluded. There were no exclusions in the current analysis for early death, defined as deaths that occurred from the onset of first treatment until 30 days after its end. Pts with HIV were excluded from the assembled cohort. Results: 694 patients with AS-HL with the inclusion criteria of the original study were included in the present study. The median age was 30.9 years (range, 18-65) at diagnosis with 46% of the pts being female. 230 (33%) patients were classified as Stage IIB, 190 with Stage III (27.4%), and 274 (39.5%) with Stage IV. Bulky disease (>10 cm) was present in 226 patients (33%). Median hemoglobin was 11.6 g/dL (8-16.3), median albumin 3.63 g/dL (1.41-5.46), and median lymphocyte count was 1.5 x 10 3 µL (0.10-4.76). The 5-y PFS (PFS5) in the A-HIPI Brazilian validation dataset was 68.4% (95% CI: 64.7-71.9%) and the 5-y OS (OS5) was 86.0% (95% CI: 82.8-88.6).Harrell c-statistics for the A-HIPI model were 0.60 (95% CI, .56-.64) for 5-year PFS and 0.69 (95%CI, .64-.74) for 5-year OS and Uno c-statistics for the A-HIPI model were 0.63 (95% CI, .58-.68) for 5-year PFS and 0.72 (95%CI, .65-.78) for 5-year OS. Calibration plots (see figures) show the predicted A-HIPI model estimates were well calibrated with the observed outcomes in the Brazilian HL registry. Conclusions: Despite important differences between the original development cohort for A-HIPI and the Brazilian registry in patient and clinical characteristics (e.g., younger age at diagnosis, greater proportion of Stage IV disease) and the well characterized impact of income maldistribution and socio-economic status on clinical outcomes (Biasoli et al., Int J Cancer 2018), the A-HIPI clinical prediction tool performed well in the Brazilian Prospective Registry. This included evidence of adequate discrimination and calibration. Future studies are planned, including the impact of treatment selection and response, use of interim imaging, and supportive care may underscore important differences in outcomes among adults with AS-HL.

Background As therapeutic advances have increased life expectancy for patients (pts) with relapsed/refractory (RR) multiple myeloma (MM), second primary malignancies (SPMs) have become an increasingly important safety consideration. Prior studies have demonstrated that treatment with alkylators, autologous stem cell transplantation, and immunomodulatory drugs (IMiDs), specifically lenalidomide, are associated with increased risk of SPM. Pts who are triple-class exposed (TCE), defined as prior exposure to an IMiD, a proteasome inhibitor (PI), and an anti-CD38 monoclonal antibody (mAb), represent an increasingly large subgroup of RRMM pts. The objective of this study was to describe the incidence and characteristics of SPMs in Medicare-insured pts with TCE RRMM initiating a new line of therapy (LOT). Methods Adult pts with an incident diagnosis (Dx) of MM (≥2 outpatient Dx 30-365 days apart OR ≥1 inpatient Dx AND 6 months of continuous eligibility prior to initial Dx) during the study period (Nov 14, 2006-Dec 31, 2020) who were TCE (≥1 claim each for an IMiD, a PI, and an anti-CD38 mAb) were selected from the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services Chronic Conditions Data Warehouse (TCE pts were assumed to have RRMM based on exposure). The first LOT after TCE was defined as the index LOT and the associated date of initiation was defined as the index date. Pts with SPMs prior to the index date were excluded. SPMs were identified based on having ≥2 outpatient Dx of SPM (of the same cancer type) 30-365 days apart OR ≥1 inpatient Dx of SPM. Dx of SPM included Dx of invasive malignancies or myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS), excluding MM, Waldenström macroglobulinemia, plasma cell leukemia, non-melanoma skin cancers, or primary bone malignancies that were preceded by a Dx of bone metastases. The incidence of SPM was calculated per 100 person years (PY) of follow-up, considering only the first SPM for each pt. Cumulative incidence of SPM (with death as a competing risk) was also calculated. For pts who experienced SPM, overall survival (OS) and measures of healthcare resource utilization (HRU) and costs (in 2021 USD, on a per patient per month [PPPM] basis) were calculated. Results A total of 3,088 TCE RRMM pts were identified, of whom 989 had no evidence of SPM prior to the index date (Table). These 989 pts had a mean age of 75.2 years, a mean of 2.9 prior LOTs and a mean of 3.1 years since MM Dx. Over a median follow-up of 7.1 months, 166 pts (19.3 per 100 PY) experienced an SPM, including 93 (10.8 per 100 PY) with a solid tumor and 73 (8.5 per 100 PY) with a hematologic malignancy. The latter included 27 (3.1 per 100 PY) with acute myeloid leukemia (AML) and 18 (2.1 per 100 PY) with MDS. The cumulative incidence of SPM (95% confidence interval [CI]) at 12, 24, and 36 months was 15.2% (12.8-17.9%), 19.7% (16.8-22.8%), and 23.8% (20.2-27.6%), respectively (Figure). Median (95% CI) OS from SPM Dx was 7.9 months (5.4-10.9). Kaplan-Meier estimated probability of survival (95% CI) at 12, 24, and 36 months following SPM Dx was 40.3% (31.6-48.9%), 27.6% (18.6-37.4%), and 9.5% (2.1-23.8%), respectively. Mean (95% CI) total costs after SPM were $22,514 ($19,105-$26,404) PPPM. Conclusions The incidence of SPM in Medicare-insured TCE RRMM pts is high. Many SPMs in these pts, such as AML, are life-threatening and may interfere with or prevent MM treatment. Pts with SPMs have poor survival and high HRU and costs. With increasing OS for RRMM pts due to therapeutic advancements, there is a need for effective treatments that are not associated with increased risk of SPMs.