Rosenberg, Philip S.

Abstract Background Benign breast disease (BBD) increases breast cancer (BC) risk progressively for women diagnosed with nonproliferative change, proliferative disease without atypia (PDWA), and atypical hyperplasia (AH). Leveraging data from 18 704 women in the Mayo BBD Cohort (1967-2013), we evaluated temporal trends in BBD diagnoses and how they have influenced associated BC risk over 4 decades. Methods BC risk trends associated with BBD were evaluated using standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) and age–period–cohort modeling across 4 eras—premammogram (1967-1981), precore needle biopsy (CNB) (1982-1992), transition to CNB (1993-2001), and CNB era (2002-2013). Results With a median follow-up of 15.8 years, 9.9% of women were diagnosed with BC (invasive and/or DCIS). From the premammogram era to the CNB era, we observed a significant increase in BC risk, rising from an SIR of 1.61 to 1.99. The proportion of proliferative BBD diagnoses (PDWA or AH) increased markedly over time (28.1%-49.7%), as did the proportion of DCIS events (11%-28%; χ2 P < .001). Within specific BBD categories, the risk of invasive BC increased modestly. Conclusions Absolute risk of BC within BBD categories remained stable, but the relative risk of BC after BBD increased over time due to notable increases in higher risk BBD lesions, specifically PDWA and AH. These findings illustrate how evolving screening practices have changed the risk profile of BBD and should inform management strategies for patients with BBD in modern clinical settings.

Background: Identifying the projected incidence of hepatobiliary cancers and recognizing patient cohorts at increased risk can help develop targeted interventions and resource allocation. The expected incidence of subtypes of hepatobiliary cancers in different age groups, races, and genders remains unknown. Methods: Historical epidemiological data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database was used to project future incidence of hepatobiliary malignancies in the United States and identify trends by age, race, and gender. Patients ≥18 years of age diagnosed with a hepatobiliary malignancy between 2001 and 2017 were included. US Census Bureau 2017 National Population projects provided the projected population from 2017 to 2029. Age–Period–Cohort forecasting model was used to estimate future births cohort-specific incidence. All analyses were completed using R Statistical Software. Results: We included 110381 historical patients diagnosed with a hepatobiliary malignancy between 2001 and 2017 with the following subtypes: hepatocellular cancer (HCC) (68%), intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (iCCA) (11.5%), gallbladder cancer (GC) (8%), extrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (eCCA) (7.6%), and ampullary cancer (AC) (4%). Our models predict the incidence of HCC to double (2001 to 2029) from 4.5 to 9.03 per 100,000, with the most significant increase anticipated in patients 70–79 years of age. In contrast, incidence is expected to continue to decline among the Asian population. Incidence of iCCA is projected to increase, especially in the white population, with rates in 2029 double those in 2001 (2.13 vs. 0.88 per 100,000, respectively; p < 0.001). The incidence of GC among the black population is expected to increase. The incidence of eCCA is expected to significantly increase, especially among the Hispanic population, while that of AC will remain stable. Discussion: The overall incidence of hepatobiliary malignancies is expected to increase in the coming years, with certain groups at increased risk. These findings may help with resource allocation when considering screening, treatment, and research in the coming years.

Abstract Background: Serous tubal intraepithelial carcinoma (STIC) is hypothesized to give rise to many cancers that have been historically classified as ovarian primaries. Although STIC is gaining status as a diagnostic entity, similar appearing lesions would likely have been reported as fallopian tubal carcinoma in-situ (FT-CIS) in the past. Accordingly to characterize patterns of reporting and behavior for tubal cancers, we analyzed population-based data for incidence rate trends, co-occurrence with cancer at other sites and survival of FT-CIS and invasive fallopian tube carcinoma (FT-Inv). Methods: We analyzed data for FT-CIS and FT-Inv included within 33 registries using the Cancer Incidence in North America Deluxe Analytical Files provided by the North American Association of Central Cancer Registries (1995-2012). Primary site of invasive carcinomas were defined according to the International Classification of Diseases for Oncology (3rd edition) topography codes (ovarian (C56.9), fallopian tube (C57.0), and primary peritoneal cancers (C48.1-.2, 48.8)). We excluded cancers with non-epithelial histology. Total counts, incidence rates per 1 million adjusted to the 2000 standard US population and age-standardized stage-specific survival were computed. Temporal incidence rate patterns were analyzed by joinpoint regression with estimates of annual percentage change (APC). Results: Cases in which the first cancer diagnosis was FT-CIS, included 98 FT-CIS alone; 27 FT-CIS followed by another cancer diagnosis within 1 year and 172 cases in which FT-CIS was diagnosed concurrently with another cancer as compared with 5513 invasive tubal carcinomas over the same period. The incidence rate of FT-CIS was stable from 1995-2002, then significantly increased from 2002-2012 [APC (95% CI) = 16.2% (10.9-21.7)]. Rates of early stage high-grade serous FT-Inv increased significantly from 2002-2012 [10.4% (6.1-14.9)] and rates of late stage high-grade serous FT-Inv rose sharply from 2002-2012 [20.0% (17.5-22.6)]. Five-year age-standardized survival for women with FT-CIS only was 75.6% overall, reflecting 89.1% survival for women less than 50 years and 70.9% for women 50 years or older; survival for high-grade early stage serous FT-Inv was 77.8%. Conclusions: Diagnoses of FT-CIS and FT-Inv have increased dramatically, likely reflecting changes in diagnostic pathology practice. Developing standardized reporting for FT-CIS (and in the future, STIC) when present with concurrent invasive cancer are needed, given that this occurs often. Based on limited data, 5-year survival for FT-CIS and early stage FT-Inv are similar, but future studies to evaluate data for STIC will be required, which will likely be achievable only through national registries that are large enough to capture sufficient cases. Citation Format: Mark E. Sherman, Sally B. Coburn, Hannah Yang, William Anderson, Philip Rosenberg, Gretchen Gierach, Nicolas Wentzensen, Kathy Cronin, Britton Trabert. Incidence rates and outcomes of fallopian tube carcinomas: Data from the North American Association of Central Cancer Registries [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2017; 2017 Apr 1-5; Washington, DC. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2017;77(13 Suppl):Abstract nr 260. doi:10.1158/1538-7445.AM2017-260

Abstract Background: Estrogen receptor (ER) status in breast cancer is strongly associated with etiologic factors, prognosis and treatment response. Data suggest that population-based incidence rates of ER-positive (ER+) tumors are increasing and ER-negative (ER-) cancers have fallen over time in the United States (US), Denmark and Scotland. Whether these trends are consistent in other populations with different etiologic exposures and across ER±/HER2± subtypes is unknown. We, therefore, analyzed breast cancer secular trends in Ireland by ER expression; and for the first time, by joint expression of ER±/HER2±, a well-established clinical marker of uncertain etiological significance. Methods: This study included invasive breast cancers (n=24,845; 2004-2013) among women aged 20-84 years within the population-based National Cancer Registry of Ireland (97% coverage). The general population at risk (n=10,401,986) was obtained from the Irish Central Statistics Office. Using a validated approach to account for missing ER/HER2-status, we assessed ER± and ER±/HER2± secular trends with age-standardized incidence rates (ASR) and estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) with 95% confidence intervals (95%CI). Results: Over the 10-year follow-up period, 19,264 ER+ and 4,161 ER- breast cancers were diagnosed (1,420 were ER-unknown). ASRs increased significantly for ER+ (EAPC: 2.20%/year (95%CI: 0.97, 3.45%/year)) and decreased significantly for ER- cancers (EAPC: -3.43%/year (95%CI: -5.05, -1.78%/year)). The ER-specific trends were qualitatively similar among three age groups (&lt;50, 50-64 and ≥65 years). With further stratification by HER2± expression, ER+/HER2- cancers rose (EAPC: 2.87%/year (95%CI: 1.33, 4.44%/year)), ER+/HER2+ cancers were statistically flat, while ER-/HER± cancers significantly declined. Conclusion: Secular trends for ER± cancers in Ireland were similar to those previously observed in the US and Denmark. Further, trends for ER/HER2 followed those for ER, although rates were constant for ER+/HER+ tumors. The divergence of cancer incidence patterns by ER among independent populations over time could reflect comparable changes in risk factor exposures with dual or opposite effects for risk of ER+ and ER- cancers (e.g., obesity, age at first birth/parity). Additionally, although HER2 is a well-established clinical predictive and prognostic marker for breast cancer outcome, it did not appear to substantively impact breast cancer incidence trends. Citation Format: Maeve Mullooly, Jeanne Murphy, Gretchen L. Gierach, Brittny Davis, Paul Walsh, Sandra Deady, Thomas I. Barron, Mark E. Sherman, Philip S. Rosenberg, William F. Anderson. Estrogen receptor positive and negative breast cancer secular trends in Ireland (2004-2013) [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2017; 2017 Apr 1-5; Washington, DC. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2017;77(13 Suppl):Abstract nr 257. doi:10.1158/1538-7445.AM2017-257