Palta, Priya

Abstract There is an urgent need to improve dementia ascertainment robustness in real-world studies assessing drug effects on dementia risk. We developed algorithms to dementia identification algorithms using Medicare claims (inpatient/outpatient/prescription) from 3318 Visit 5 (2011-2013) and 1828 Visit 6 (2016-2017) participants of the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study, validated against ARIC's rigorous syndromic dementia classification. Algorithm performance was compared to existing algorithms (Jain, Bynum, Lee). We further evaluated algorithms effectiveness in a 20% random Medicare sample aged ≥70 years who initiating liraglutide or dipeptidyl peptidase 4 inhibitors (DPP4i) to assess 3-year adjusted risk difference (aRD) for dementia. Our incident dementia algorithm required two dementia diagnostic codes within 1-year, or one dementia code plus a new dementia prescription within 90 days. It achieved a positive predictive value (PPV) of 69.2%, specificity of 99.0%, and sensitivity of 34.6% (population prevalence: 8.8%), comparable to extant algorithms (PPV, 58.7–68.6%; sensitivity 25.5–40.4%). Prevalent dementia algorithm (without requiring incident diagnoses/prescriptions) demonstrated similar performance. In the Medicare sample, dementia risk ranged from 3.0% to 12.5%, aRD comparing liraglutide to DPP4i varied −1.2% to −3.6%, with our algorithm closely matching the Bynum algorithm. Algorithm selection significantly impacts treatment effect estimates, highlighting its importance in in pharmacoepidemiologic research.

AbstractBackgroundWeakened white matter (WM) integrity is highly associated with dementia risk. Still, not everyone with WM changes develops dementia, suggesting the important role modifiable lifestyle factors may have in reducing dementia risk. We investigated how social relationships in mid‐life may modify the association between WM integrity and incident dementia risk within race and sex subgroups.MethodIn 1,679 Atherosclerosis Risk in Community (ARIC) study participants who were dementia‐free in mid‐life, psychosocial health was assessed via self‐reported questionnaires and participants were classified as having strong or poor social relationships in mid‐life (visit 2: 1990‐1992). Through diffusion tensor imaging, WM integrity was evaluated with 3T brain MRI (visit 5: 2011 – 2013); fractional anisotropy (FA) and mean diffusivity (MD) were estimated. Incident dementia cases were identified from visit 5 through December 31, 2019, with ongoing surveillance. Relative contributions of social relationships and WM integrity to incident dementia were evaluated in Cox‐proportional hazard regression models with race and race‐sex as interaction terms, and in stratified models (White Females, Black Females, White Males, Black Males).ResultSignificant three‐way interactions were observed between race, WM integrity, and mid‐life social relationships (p‐interaction<0.01). In Black participants with strong mid‐life social relationships, higher MD (hazard ratio (HR): 0.93, 95% CI: 0.63 – 1.38) and lower FA (HR: 1.25, 95% CI: 0.84 – 1.86) were not associated with the risk of dementia, although in Black participants with poor social relationships, higher MD remained a significant risk factor for dementia. However, across all White participants, higher MD and lower FA were associated with the risk of dementia, regardless of mid‐life social relationships (Table 1; Figure 1). Analysis of three‐way interactions between race‐sex, WM integrity, and mid‐life social relationships suggested that effect modification by mid‐life social relationships was most evident in Black Females, respective to other groups (Table 2; Figure 1).ConclusionThe contribution of WM integrity to dementia risk may be lower in Black participants with strong social relationships in mid‐life, particularly in Black Females. Further understanding of how contextual social factors may influence brain health in diverse populations should be examined in future studies and intervention efforts.

AbstractBackgroundMidlife vascular risk factors are associated with an increased risk of dementia. However, the overall contribution of modifiable vascular risk factors in midlife and late‐life to dementia remains unclear. In this study, we quantified population attributable fractions, which account for risk factor prevalence and strength of relative risks, of incident dementia from vascular risk factors measured in midlife and early late‐life.MethodWe used 33 years of prospective cohort data in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study. Incident dementia (community surveillance and algorithmic diagnosis with expert clinical adjudication) was ascertained from baseline (1987‐1989) through December 31, 2020. We quantified population attributable fractions of incident dementia by age 80 from the combination of hypertension (systolic blood pressure ≥130, diastolic blood pressure ≥80, or use of medication), diabetes (fasting glucose ≥126, non‐fasting glucose ≥200, self‐reported physician diagnosis of diabetes, or use of medication for diabetes/insulin), and self‐reported current cigarette smoking (at least one risk factor versus none) measured at different ages (45‐54 [n = 7,731], 55‐64 [n = 12,273]; 65‐74 [n = 6,660]). We also computed attributable fractions stratified by sex, apolipoprotein ε4 genotype, and self‐reported race.ResultThe prevalence of having one or more of the vascular risk factors was 61.6% (95% CI: 60.5, 62.7%) at age 45‐54 and increased to 77.5% (95% CI: 76.5, 78.5%) by age 65‐74. Population attributable fractions of dementia increased from 22.7% (95% CI: 15.3, 30.1%) for vascular risk factors measured at age 45‐54 to 45.4% (95% CI: 32.5, 58.3%) for vascular risk factors assessed at age 65‐74 (see Figure). Attributable fractions were larger in females, participants without apolipoprotein ε4 alleles, and Black participants (Figure).ConclusionBetween 23% to 45% of incident dementia cases by age 80 were attributed to a combination of hypertension, diabetes, or current smoking up through age 74. Attributable fractions for the combined impact of vascular risk varied by key demographics. Public health strategies targeting modifiable vascular risk factors could reduce dementia risk and increase healthy lifespan.

AbstractBackgroundWeakened white matter (WM) integrity is highly associated with dementia risk. Still, not everyone with WM changes develops dementia, suggesting the important role modifiable lifestyle factors may have in reducing dementia risk. We investigated how social relationships in mid‐life may modify the association between WM integrity and incident dementia risk within race and sex subgroups.MethodIn 1,679 Atherosclerosis Risk in Community (ARIC) study participants who were dementia‐free in mid‐life, psychosocial health was assessed via self‐reported questionnaires and participants were classified as having strong or poor social relationships in mid‐life (visit 2: 1990‐1992). Through diffusion tensor imaging, WM integrity was evaluated with 3T brain MRI (visit 5: 2011 – 2013); fractional anisotropy (FA) and mean diffusivity (MD) were estimated. Incident dementia cases were identified from visit 5 through December 31, 2019, with ongoing surveillance. Relative contributions of social relationships and WM integrity to incident dementia were evaluated in Cox‐proportional hazard regression models with race and race‐sex as interaction terms, and in stratified models (White Females, Black Females, White Males, Black Males).ResultSignificant three‐way interactions were observed between race, WM integrity, and mid‐life social relationships (p‐interaction<0.01). In Black participants with strong mid‐life social relationships, higher MD (hazard ratio (HR): 0.93, 95% CI: 0.63 – 1.38) and lower FA (HR: 1.25, 95% CI: 0.84 – 1.86) were not associated with the risk of dementia, although in Black participants with poor social relationships, higher MD remained a significant risk factor for dementia. However, across all White participants, higher MD and lower FA were associated with the risk of dementia, regardless of mid‐life social relationships (Table 1; Figure 1). Analysis of three‐way interactions between race‐sex, WM integrity, and mid‐life social relationships suggested that effect modification by mid‐life social relationships was most evident in Black Females, respective to other groups (Table 2; Figure 1).ConclusionThe contribution of WM integrity to dementia risk may be lower in Black participants with strong social relationships in mid‐life, particularly in Black Females. Further understanding of how contextual social factors may influence brain health in diverse populations should be examined in future studies and intervention efforts.

AbstractBackgroundPharmacoepidemiologic studies assessing drug effectiveness for Alzheimer’s disease and related dementias (ADRD) are increasingly popular given the critical need for effective therapies for ADRD. To meet the urgent need for robust dementia ascertainment from real‐world data, we aimed to develop a novel algorithm for identifying incident and prevalent dementia in claims.MethodWe developed algorithm candidates by different timing/frequency of dementia diagnosis/treatment to identify dementia from inpatient/outpatient/prescription claims for 6,515 and 3,997 participants from Visits 5 (2011‐2013; mean age 75.8 (SD 5.3) years) and 6 (2016‐2017; mean age 79.8 (SD 4.8) years) of the ARIC cohort with ≥ 1‐year continuous Medicare Part A & B enrollment prior to each visit. We evaluated algorithm performance (sensitivity/specificity/positive predictive value (PPV)/negative predictive value (NPV)) against the gold standard of the ARIC dementia classification based on an extensive battery of neurocognitive tests administered at each visit. We compared performance of the new algorithm with that of three existing algorithms (Jain, Bynum, Lee) and their relaxed forms (4‐year window, dementia diagnosis plus a depression diagnosis or dementia evaluation procedure, ignoring code position) to identify incident (n = 90 at V6) and prevalent dementia (n = 190 at V5; n = 160 at V6).ResultThe newly developed primary algorithm requires presence of a dementia diagnosis code followed by another diagnosis code within 1 year (under condition that the following non‐specific ICD‐9 diagnostic codes, 290.40, 290.41, 290.11, 290.3, should appear no more than once), or a subsequent dementia treatment prescription within 90 days (requiring Medicare Part D enrollment ≥ 6 months). The PPV of the new algorithm in the identification of incident dementia was PPV of 72.7%, with a specificity of 99.1%, outperforming existing algorithms. Its sensitivity of 38.7% and NPV of 96.2% were comparable to those achieved by existing algorithms. Sensitivity analysis restricting to ICD‐10 diagnostic codes increased the PPV and attenuated its sensitivity by 6%. Similar comparative performance was observed in the identification of prevalent dementia.ConclusionA novel algorithm for identifying dementia from Medicare claims, developed using linked ARIC‐Medicare data, outperforms previous algorithms and stands as a valuable tool in the assessment of ADRD drugs from real‐world data.

BACKGROUND: Associations between magnetic resonance imaging markers of cerebral small vessel disease (CSVD) and dementia risk in older adults have been established, but it remains unclear how lifestyle factors, including psychosocial health, may modify this association. METHODS: Social support and social isolation were assessed among participants of the community-based ARIC (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities) Study, via self-reported questionnaires (1990–1992). Following categorization of both factors, participants were classified as having strong or poor mid-life social relationships. At visit 5 (2011–2013), participants underwent 3T brain magnetic resonance imaging quantifying CSVD measures: white matter hyperintensity volume, microbleeds (subcortical), infarcts (lacunar), and white matter integrity (diffusion tensor imaging). Incident dementia cases were identified from the time of imaging through December 31, 2020 with ongoing surveillance. Associations between CSVD magnetic resonance imaging markers and incident dementia were evaluated using Cox proportional-hazard regressions adjusted for demographic and additional risk factors (from visit 2). Effect modification by mid-life social relationships was evaluated. RESULTS: Of the 1977 participants with magnetic resonance imaging, 1617 participants (60.7% women; 26.5% Black participants; mean age at visit 2, 55.4 years) were examined. In this sample, mid-life social relationships significantly modified the association between white matter hyperintensity volume and dementia risk ( P interaction=0.001). Greater white matter hyperintensity volume was significantly associated with risk of dementia in all participants, yet, more substantially in those with poor (hazard ratio, 1.84 [95% CI, 1.49–2.27]) versus strong (hazard ratio, 1.26 [95% CI, 1.08–1.47]) mid-life social relationships. Although not statistically significant, subcortical microbleeds in participants with poor mid-life social relationships were associated with a greater risk of dementia, relative to those with strong social relationships, in whom subcortical microbleeds were no longer associated with elevated dementia risk. CONCLUSIONS: The elevated risk of dementia associated with CSVD may be reduced in participants with strong mid-life social relationships. Future studies evaluating psychosocial health through the life course and the mechanisms by which they modify the relationship between CSVD and dementia are needed.

Importance Plasma biomarkers show promise for identifying Alzheimer disease (AD) neuropathology and neurodegeneration, but additional examination among diverse populations and throughout the life course is needed. Objective To assess temporal plasma biomarker changes and their association with all-cause dementia, overall and among subgroups of community-dwelling adults. Design, Setting, and Participants In 1525 participants from the US-based Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study, plasma biomarkers were measured using stored specimens collected in midlife (1993-1995, mean age 58.3 years) and late life (2011-2013, mean age 76.0 years; followed up to 2016-2019, mean age 80.7 years). Midlife risk factors (hypertension, diabetes, lipids, coronary heart disease, cigarette use, and physical activity) were assessed for their associations with change in plasma biomarkers over time. The associations of biomarkers with incident all-cause dementia were evaluated in a subpopulation (n = 1339) who were dementia-free in 2011-2013 and had biomarker measurements in 1993-1995 and 2011-2013. Exposure Plasma biomarkers of amyloid-β 42 to amyloid-β 40 (Aβ42:Aβ40) ratio, phosphorylated tau at threonine 181 (p-tau181), neurofilament light (NfL), and glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP) were measured using the Quanterix Simoa platform. Main Outcomes and Measures Incident all-cause dementia was ascertained from January 1, 2012, through December 31, 2019, from neuropsychological assessments, semiannual participant or informant contact, and medical record surveillance. Results Among 1525 participants (mean age, 58.3 [SD, 5.1] years), 914 participants (59.9%) were women, and 394 participants (25.8%) were Black. A total of 252 participants (16.5%) developed dementia. Decreasing Aβ42:Aβ40 ratio and increasing p-tau181, NfL, and GFAP were observed from midlife to late life, with more rapid biomarker changes among participants carrying the apolipoprotein E epsilon 4 ( APOE ε4) allele. Midlife hypertension was associated with a 0.15-SD faster NfL increase and a 0.08-SD faster GFAP increase per decade; estimates for midlife diabetes were a 0.11-SD faster for NfL and 0.15-SD faster for GFAP. Only AD-specific biomarkers in midlife demonstrated long-term associations with late-life dementia (hazard ratio per SD lower Aβ42:Aβ40 ratio, 1.11; 95% CI, 1.02-1.21; per SD higher p-tau181, 1.15; 95% CI, 1.06-1.25). All plasma biomarkers in late life had statistically significant associations with late-life dementia, with NfL demonstrating the largest association (1.92; 95% CI, 1.72-2.14). Conclusions and Relevance Plasma biomarkers of AD neuropathology, neuronal injury, and astrogliosis increase with age and are associated with known dementia risk factors. AD-specific biomarkers’ association with dementia starts in midlife whereas late-life measures of AD, neuronal injury, and astrogliosis biomarkers are all associated with dementia.

Abstract Background Relationships of midlife inflammation with late‐life mobility and influences of chronic health conditions, race, and social determinants of health (SDoH) on these relationships are poorly understood. Methods Among 4758 community‐dwelling participants (41% men, 20% Black), high‐sensitivity C‐reactive protein (hsCRP) was measured over 20+ years: in midlife at study visit 2 (V2: 1990–1992, 47–68 years); at V4 (1996–1998, 53–74 years); and with concurrent late‐life 4‐m gait speed at V5 (2011–2013, 67‐88 years, mean 75 years). SDoH measures included race, the national‐rank area deprivation index, education, and income. We examined associations of late‐life gait speed with midlife hsCRP (V2 continuous and clinically high ≥3 mg/L), with 20‐year hsCRP history from midlife (V2–V5 average continuous hsCRP and clinically high ≥3 mg/L) and with inflammation accumulation (visits and years with high hsCRP). Regression models adjusted for demographic, cardiovascular, and SDoH measures; effect modification by the presence of other common chronic conditions (obesity, diabetes, hypertension) and race were examined, with and without accounting for SDoH. Results High midlife hsCRP was associated with slower late‐life gait speed, even among those without chronic conditions in midlife: −4.6 cm/s (95% CI: −6.4, −2.8). Importantly, sustained high hsCRP was associated with a 20‐year slowing of −10.0 cm/s (−14.9, −5.1) among those who never experienced obesity, diabetes, or hypertension over the 20‐year period. Associations were similar between Black participants, −3.8 cm/s (−6.9, −0.7) and White participants −3.3 (−4.5, −2.2) per interquartile range of midlife hsCRP; effect modifications by chronic conditions and race were unsupported throughout. Results were robust to accounting for SDoH or otherwise; however, worse SDoH was associated with higher inflammation and slower gait speed in both Black and White participants. Conclusions Inflammation in midlife may contribute to clinically meaningful late‐life slowing of gait speed, even among otherwise healthy‐appearing adults and regardless of race and socioeconomic disadvantage. Regular monitoring and interventions for inflammation may be warranted from midlife.

AbstractINTRODUCTIONThis study aimed to assess whether social relationships in mid‐life reduce the risk of dementia related to amyloid burden.METHODSParticipants in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study were assessed for social support and isolation (visit 2; 1990–1992). A composite measure, “social relationships,” was generated. Brain amyloid was evaluated with florbetapir positron emission tomography (PET); (visit 5; 2012–2014). Incident dementia cases were identified following visit 5 through 2019 using ongoing surveillance. Relative contributions of mid‐life social relationships and elevated brain amyloid to incident dementia were evaluated with Cox regression models.RESULTSAmong 310 participants without dementia, strong mid‐life social relationships were associated independently with lower dementia risk. Elevated late‐life brain amyloid was associated with greater dementia risk.DISCUSSIONAlthough mid‐life social relationships did not moderate the relationship between amyloid burden and dementia, these findings affirm the importance of strong social relationships as a potentially protective factor against dementia.

AbstractBackgroundAlthough amyloid deposition in the brain is often associated with subsequent dementia risk, not everyone with brain amyloid will develop dementia. This discrepancy illustrates the potential importance that risk factors and lived experiences may have in modifying this association. Compared to participants with low social engagement (SE) in mid‐life, we hypothesized that participants with high mid‐life SE will show a weaker association between amyloid burden and incident dementia.MethodWe included data from 310 non‐demented participants of the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC)‐PET study. Social support and isolation were assessed via interviewer‐administered questionnaires (Visit 2; 1990 – 1992). Based upon categorization of both factors, participants were classified as having high, intermediate, or low mid‐life SE (Table 1). Brain amyloid was evaluated with florbetapir PET (Visit 5; 2011‐2014). Elevated amyloid burden was defined as standardized uptake value ratio (SUVR) >1.2 in the global cortex. Incident dementia cases were identified from visit 5 through 2019 through ongoing surveillance utilizing in‐person neurocognitive testing, informant interviews, and hospitalization codes. Relative contributions of mid‐life SE and elevated florbetapir SUVR to incident dementia, independently and with multiplicative interaction terms, were evaluated with Cox regression models, adjusted for demographics, APOEε4 and vascular risk factorsResultAmong 310 participants, 48 developed dementia (median follow‐up: 4.7 years). Mid‐life SE and elevated SUVR each independently predicted dementia risk but did not interact on a multiplicative scale. Participants with high or intermediate mid‐life SE, relative to low mid‐life SE, were less likely to develop dementia (Table 2). Although the interaction between mid‐life SE and elevated SUVR was not significant, stratified models suggested a stronger association between amyloid burden and dementia in participants with high mid‐life SE (Table 3).ConclusionGreater mid‐life SE was associated with lower odds of developing dementia, independent of elevated SUVR. Although protective, there was no strong evidence for effect modification of mid‐life SE on the association between amyloid and dementia risk. Future longitudinal studies evaluating the potential influence of social factors measured throughout the life course are needed to inform our understanding as to what factors may preserve cognition in the presence of elevated brain pathology.