Dean, Nathan C.

Abstract Rationale Nontuberculous mycobacteria (NTM) are prevalent among patients with bronchiectasis. However, the long-term natural history of patients with NTM and bronchiectasis is not well described. Objectives To assess the impact of NTM on 5-year clinical outcomes and mortality in patients with bronchiectasis. Methods Patients in the Bronchiectasis and NTM Research Registry with ⩾5 years of follow-up were eligible. Data were collected for all-cause mortality, lung function, exacerbations, hospitalizations, and disease severity. Outcomes were compared between patients with and without NTM at baseline. Mortality was assessed using Cox proportional hazards models and the log-rank test. Measurements and Main Results In total, 2,634 patients were included: 1,549 (58.8%) with and 1,085 (41.2%) without NTM at baseline. All-cause mortality (95% confidence interval) at Year 5 was 12.1% (10.5%, 13.7%) overall, 12.6% (10.5%, 14.8%) in patients with NTM, and 11.5% (9.0%, 13.9%) in patients without NTM. Independent predictors of 5-year mortality were baseline FEV1 percent predicted, age, hospitalization within 2 years before baseline, body mass index, and sex (all P < 0.01). The probabilities of acquiring NTM or Pseudomonas aeruginosa were approximately 4% and 3% per year, respectively. Spirometry, exacerbations, and hospitalizations were similar, regardless of NTM status, except that annual exacerbations were lower in patients with NTM (P < 0.05). Conclusions Outcomes, including exacerbations, hospitalizations, rate of loss of lung function, and mortality rate, were similar across 5 years in patients with bronchiectasis with or without NTM.

ABSTRACT The health care-associated pneumonia (HCAP) criteria have a limited ability to predict pneumonia caused by drug-resistant bacteria and favor the overutilization of broad-spectrum antibiotics. We aimed to derive and validate a clinical prediction score with an improved ability to predict the risk of pneumonia due to drug-resistant pathogens compared to that of HCAP criteria. A derivation cohort of 200 microbiologically confirmed pneumonia cases in 2011 and 2012 was identified retrospectively. Risk factors for pneumonia due to drug-resistant pathogens were evaluated by logistic regression, and a novel prediction score (the drug resistance in pneumonia [DRIP] score) was derived. The score was then validated in a prospective, observational cohort of 200 microbiologically confirmed cases of pneumonia at four U.S. centers in 2013 and 2014. The DRIP score (area under the receiver operator curve [AUROC], 0.88 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 0.82 to 0.93]) performed significantly better ( P = 0.02) than the HCAP criteria (AUROC, 0.72 [95% CI, 0.64 to 0.79]). At a threshold of ≥4 points, the DRIP score demonstrated a sensitivity of 0.82 (95% CI, 0.67 to 0.88), a specificity of 0.81 (95% CI, 0.73 to 0.87), a positive predictive value (PPV) of 0.68 (95% CI, 0.56 to 0.78), and a negative predictive value (NPV) of 0.90 (95% CI, 0.81 to 0.93). By comparison, the performance of HCAP criteria was less favorable: sensitivity was 0.79 (95% CI, 0.67 to 0.88), specificity was 0.65 (95% CI, 0.56 to 0.73), PPV was 0.53 (95% CI, 0.42 to 0.63), and NPV was 0.86 (95% CI, 0.77 to 0.92). The overall accuracy of the HCAP criteria was 69.5% (95% CI, 62.5 to 75.7%), whereas that of the DRIP score was 81.5% (95% CI, 74.2 to 85.6%) ( P = 0.005). Unnecessary extended-spectrum antibiotics were recommended 46% less frequently by applying the DRIP score (25/200, 12.5%) than by use of HCAP criteria (47/200, 23.5%) ( P = 0.004), without increasing the rate at which inadequate treatment recommendations were made. The DRIP score was more predictive of the risk of pneumonia due to drug-resistant pathogens than HCAP criteria and may have the potential to decrease antibiotic overutilization in patients with pneumonia. Validation in larger cohorts of patients with pneumonia due to all causes is necessary.