Williams, Kathryn

ABSTRACT The health care-associated pneumonia (HCAP) criteria have a limited ability to predict pneumonia caused by drug-resistant bacteria and favor the overutilization of broad-spectrum antibiotics. We aimed to derive and validate a clinical prediction score with an improved ability to predict the risk of pneumonia due to drug-resistant pathogens compared to that of HCAP criteria. A derivation cohort of 200 microbiologically confirmed pneumonia cases in 2011 and 2012 was identified retrospectively. Risk factors for pneumonia due to drug-resistant pathogens were evaluated by logistic regression, and a novel prediction score (the drug resistance in pneumonia [DRIP] score) was derived. The score was then validated in a prospective, observational cohort of 200 microbiologically confirmed cases of pneumonia at four U.S. centers in 2013 and 2014. The DRIP score (area under the receiver operator curve [AUROC], 0.88 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 0.82 to 0.93]) performed significantly better ( P = 0.02) than the HCAP criteria (AUROC, 0.72 [95% CI, 0.64 to 0.79]). At a threshold of ≥4 points, the DRIP score demonstrated a sensitivity of 0.82 (95% CI, 0.67 to 0.88), a specificity of 0.81 (95% CI, 0.73 to 0.87), a positive predictive value (PPV) of 0.68 (95% CI, 0.56 to 0.78), and a negative predictive value (NPV) of 0.90 (95% CI, 0.81 to 0.93). By comparison, the performance of HCAP criteria was less favorable: sensitivity was 0.79 (95% CI, 0.67 to 0.88), specificity was 0.65 (95% CI, 0.56 to 0.73), PPV was 0.53 (95% CI, 0.42 to 0.63), and NPV was 0.86 (95% CI, 0.77 to 0.92). The overall accuracy of the HCAP criteria was 69.5% (95% CI, 62.5 to 75.7%), whereas that of the DRIP score was 81.5% (95% CI, 74.2 to 85.6%) ( P = 0.005). Unnecessary extended-spectrum antibiotics were recommended 46% less frequently by applying the DRIP score (25/200, 12.5%) than by use of HCAP criteria (47/200, 23.5%) ( P = 0.004), without increasing the rate at which inadequate treatment recommendations were made. The DRIP score was more predictive of the risk of pneumonia due to drug-resistant pathogens than HCAP criteria and may have the potential to decrease antibiotic overutilization in patients with pneumonia. Validation in larger cohorts of patients with pneumonia due to all causes is necessary.

Background— Outcomes in patients with mild to moderate renal function (RF) abnormalities presenting with acute coronary syndromes (ACS) are not well defined. Methods and Results— A convenience sample of 4 ACS trial databases including all enrolled patients was assessed to determine 30- and 180-day outcomes. The 4 trials were Global Use of Strategies to Open Occluded Coronary Arteries (GUSTO) IIb, GUSTO-III, Platelet Glycoprotein IIb/IIIa in Unstable Angina: Receptor Suppression Using Integrilin Therapy (PURSUIT), and Platelet IIb/IIIa Antagonism for the Reduction of Acute coronary syndrome events in a Global Organization Network (PARAGON-A). Patients were stratified into ST-segment elevation (STE) and non–ST-segment elevation (NSE) groups and by the presence or absence of abnormal RF (creatinine clearance <70 mL/min). In the STE group, 7670 of 18 621 patients (41%) had abnormal RF. In the NSE group, 8152 of 19 304 (42%) had abnormal RF. Patients with abnormal RF were older, more often female, and more likely to have adverse baseline characteristics. They had higher mortality and higher mortality/nonfatal myocardial infarction (MI) at both 30 and 180 days, regardless of ST-segment status. Creatinine clearance was independently associated with risk of mortality (hazard ratio 0.79 in the STE group and 0.81 in the NSE group) and with risk of mortality/MI (hazard ratio 0.93) in the NSE group at 180 days. Conclusions— Patients presenting with ACS frequently have abnormal RF. Abnormal RF is a marker of adverse baseline clinical characteristics and is independently associated with increased risk of death and death/MI.