Choi, James W.

Introduction: Chronic total occlusion (CTO) percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) is associated with increased risk of periprocedural complications. Estimating the risk of complications facilitates risk-benefit assessment and procedural planning. Methods: We analyzed the Prospective Global Registry for the Study of Chronic Total Occlusion Intervention (PROGRESS-CTO, NCT02061436) and created a risk score for in-hospital all-cause mortality. Logistic regression prediction modeling was used to identify independently associated variables and the model was internally validated with bootstrapping. Results: Of the 10,480 CTO PCI cases performed between 2012-2022 at 40 US and non-US centers, in-hospital mortality occurred in 47 (0.45%). The final prediction model identified 4 independent predictors of mortality: Age ≥65 years, Odds Ratio [OR]: 2.83 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.30-6.16), 1-point; Left ventricular ejection fraction ≤45%, OR: 2.13 (95% CI, 1.14-3.98), 1-point; Moderate-severe calcification, OR: 2.45 (95% CI, 1.18-5.08), 1-point; and Antegrade dissection re-entry, OR: 2.81 (95% CI, 1.06-7.43), 1-point; or Retrograde strategy, OR: 3.51 (95% CI, 1.67-7.37), 1-point; with a bootstrap corrected c-statistics of 0.71 (95% confidence interval: 0.63-0.81). The calculated risk percentages for mortality based on the PROGRESS-CTO mortality score ranged from 0.05-2.42% for mortality, and 63% of patients in the PROGRESS-CTO cohort had PROGRESS-CTO mortality score of 1 or 2, corresponding to a mortality risk of 0.1-0.5% (Figure 1). Conclusions: The PROGRESS-CTO in-hospital mortality risk score can facilitate risk-benefit assessment and procedural planning in patients undergoing CTO PCI.

Background— Current guidelines recommend coronary artery bypass graft surgery (CABG) when treating significant de novo left main coronary artery (LM) stenosis; however, percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) has a class IIa indication for unprotected LM disease in selected patients. This analysis compares 5-year clinical outcomes in PCI- and CABG-treated LM patients in the Synergy Between PCI With Taxus and Cardiac Surgery (SYNTAX) trial, the largest trial in this group to date. Methods and Results— The SYNTAX trial randomly assigned 1800 patients with LM or 3-vessel disease to receive either PCI (with TAXUS Express paclitaxel-eluting stents) or CABG. The unprotected LM cohort (N=705) was predefined and powered. Major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular event rates at 5 years was 36.9% in PCI patients and 31.0% in CABG patients (hazard ratio, 1.23 [95% confidence interval, 0.95–1.59]; P =0.12). Mortality rate was 12.8% and 14.6% in PCI and CABG patients, respectively (hazard ratio, 0.88 [95% confidence interval, 0.58–1.32]; P =0.53). Stroke was significantly increased in the CABG group (PCI 1.5% versus CABG 4.3%; hazard ratio, 0.33 [95% confidence interval, 0.12–0.92]; P =0.03) and repeat revascularization in the PCI arm (26.7% versus 15.5%; hazard ratio, 1.82 [95% confidence interval, 1.28–2.57]; P <0.01). Major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events were similar between arms in patients with low/intermediate SYNTAX scores but significantly increased in PCI patients with high scores (≥33). Conclusions— At 5 years, no difference in overall major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events was found between treatment groups. PCI-treated patients had a lower stroke but a higher revascularization rate versus CABG. These results suggest that both treatments are valid options for LM patients. The extent of disease should accounted for when choosing between surgery and PCI, because patients with high SYNTAX scores seem to benefit more from surgery compared with those in the lower tertiles. Clinical Trial Registration— URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00114972.