Khelimskii, Dmitrii A.

Introduction: Chronic total occlusion (CTO) percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) is associated with increased risk of periprocedural complications. Estimating the risk of complications facilitates risk-benefit assessment and procedural planning. Methods: We analyzed the Prospective Global Registry for the Study of Chronic Total Occlusion Intervention (PROGRESS-CTO, NCT02061436) and created a risk score for in-hospital all-cause mortality. Logistic regression prediction modeling was used to identify independently associated variables and the model was internally validated with bootstrapping. Results: Of the 10,480 CTO PCI cases performed between 2012-2022 at 40 US and non-US centers, in-hospital mortality occurred in 47 (0.45%). The final prediction model identified 4 independent predictors of mortality: Age ≥65 years, Odds Ratio [OR]: 2.83 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.30-6.16), 1-point; Left ventricular ejection fraction ≤45%, OR: 2.13 (95% CI, 1.14-3.98), 1-point; Moderate-severe calcification, OR: 2.45 (95% CI, 1.18-5.08), 1-point; and Antegrade dissection re-entry, OR: 2.81 (95% CI, 1.06-7.43), 1-point; or Retrograde strategy, OR: 3.51 (95% CI, 1.67-7.37), 1-point; with a bootstrap corrected c-statistics of 0.71 (95% confidence interval: 0.63-0.81). The calculated risk percentages for mortality based on the PROGRESS-CTO mortality score ranged from 0.05-2.42% for mortality, and 63% of patients in the PROGRESS-CTO cohort had PROGRESS-CTO mortality score of 1 or 2, corresponding to a mortality risk of 0.1-0.5% (Figure 1). Conclusions: The PROGRESS-CTO in-hospital mortality risk score can facilitate risk-benefit assessment and procedural planning in patients undergoing CTO PCI.