Bentall, Andrew

Background. The impact of induction type or high-risk viral discordance on older kidney transplant recipients is unclear. Herein, we analyzed the association between induction type, viral discordance, and outcomes for older recipients. Methods. We analyzed the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients standard analysis file for all primary kidney transplant recipients older than 55 y who were transplanted between 2005 and 2022. All transplants were crossmatch negative and ABO-compatible. Recipients were discharged on tacrolimus and mycophenolate ± steroids. Recipients were categorized into 3 groups by induction received: rabbit antithymocyte globulin (r-ATG; N = 51 079), interleukin-2 receptor antagonist (IL-2RA; N = 22 752), and alemtuzumab (N = 13 465). Kaplan-Meier curves were generated for recipient and graft survival, and follow-up was censored at 10 y. Mixed-effect Cox proportional hazard models examined the association between induction type, high-risk viral discordance, and outcomes of interest. Models were adjusted for pertinent recipient and donor characteristics. Results. Induction type did not predict recipient survival in the multivariable model, whereas Epstein-Barr virus high-risk discordance predicted 14% higher mortality (1.14 [1.07-1.21], P < 0.01). In the multivariable model for death-censored graft survival, alemtuzumab, but not IL-2RA, was associated with an increased risk of graft loss (1.18 [1.06-1.29], P < 0.01) compared with r-ATG. High-risk cytomegalovirus discordance predicted 10% lower death-censored graft survival (1.10 [1.01-1.19], P < 0.02). Live donor and preemptive transplantation were favorable predictors of survival. Conclusions. In this large cohort of older transplant recipients, alemtuzumab, but not IL-2RA, induction was associated with an increased risk of graft loss compared with r-ATG. Cytomegalovirus and Epstein-Barr virus high-risk viral discordance portended poor graft and recipient survival, respectively.

Background. Chronic systemic inflammation is associated with mortality in patients with chronic kidney disease, cardiovascular disease, and diabetes. The goal of this study was to examine the relationship between pretransplant inflammatory biomarkers (growth differentiation factor-15 [GDF-15], interleukin-6 [IL-6], soluble tumor necrosis factor receptor-1, monokine induced by gamma interferon/chemokine [C-X-C motif] ligand 9 [MIG/CXCL9], monocyte chemoattractant protein-1, soluble FAS, tumor necrosis factor-α, interleukin-15, and interleukin-1β) and death with function (DWF) after kidney transplantation (KT). Methods. We retrospectively measured inflammatory biomarker levels in serum collected up to 1 y before KT (time from blood draw to KT was 130 ± 110 d) in recipients transplanted between January 2006 and December 2018. Kaplan-Meier estimation, Cox regression, and Gradient Boosting Machine modeling were used to examine the relationship between inflammatory biomarkers and DWF. Results. Our cohort consisted of 1595 KT recipients, of whom 62.9% were male and 83.2% were non-Hispanic White. Over a mean follow-up of 7.4 ± 3.9 y, 21.2% of patients (n = 338) experienced DWF. Patients with the highest quartile levels of GDF-15 (>4766 pg/mL), IL-6 (>6.11 pg/mL), and MIG/CXCL9 (> 5835 pg/mL) had increased rates of DWF, and each predicted mortality independently of the others. When adjusted for clinical factors (age, diabetes, etc), the highest quartile levels of GDF-15 and IL-6 remained independently associated with DWF. Adding inflammatory markers to a clinical Cox model improved the C-statistic for DWF from 0.727 to 0.762 using a Gradient Boosting Machine modeling approach. Conclusions. These findings suggest that pre-KT serum concentrations of GDF-15, IL-6, and MIG/CXCL9 may help to risk stratify and manage patients undergoing KT and suggests that chronic inflammation may play a role in mortality in KT recipients.

Background. Microvascular inflammation (MVI) is a key feature of antibody-mediated rejection (AMR) among patients with HLA donor-specific antibody (DSA), but MVI at AMR thresholds (Banff glomerulitis [g] + peritubular capillaritis [ptc] score ≥ 2) without DSA has been increasingly recognized. We aimed to determine the incidence of MVI among highly sensitized kidney transplant recipients without DSA. Methods. We performed a single-center, retrospective, matched cohort study comparing outcomes of kidney transplant recipients with cPRA ≥90% with preexisting DSA (n = 49), cPRA ≥90% without preexisting DSA (n = 47), and matched controls with cPRA = 0 without preexisting DSA (n = 49). Controls were matched by age, donor type, and transplant date. Indication and surveillance biopsies combined with annual de novo DSA screening were obtained. Results. Kidney transplant recipients with a cPRA ≥90% and no evidence of preexisting or de novo DSA had a higher incidence of MVI (glomerulitis + peritubular capillaritis ≥ 2) than patients with cPRA = 0 [35% (17/49) versus 12% (6/49), P = 0.0003] over a median (interquartile range) follow-up of 5 (4–6) y posttransplant. Among this cPRA ≥90% group without DSA, MVI persisted in 54% of cases on follow-up biopsy (7/13), and 24% (4/13) of cases developed transplant glomerulopathy (Banff cg score > 0). Conclusions. Highly sensitized transplant recipients have a high incidence of persistent and progressive MVI, even without DSA. The mechanisms underlying these histologic features needs to be elucidated, but this information is important to consider when making decisions about transplantation among highly sensitized individuals.

Background. Predicting long-term mortality postkidney transplantation (KT) using baseline clinical data presents significant challenges. This study aims to evaluate the predictive power of artificial intelligence (AI)-enabled analysis of preoperative electrocardiograms (ECGs) in forecasting long-term mortality following KT. Methods. We analyzed preoperative ECGs from KT recipients at three Mayo Clinic sites (Minnesota, Florida, and Arizona) between January 1, 2006, and July 30, 2021. The study involved 6 validated AI algorithms, each trained to predict future development of atrial fibrillation, aortic stenosis, low ejection fraction, hypertrophic cardiomyopathy, amyloid heart disease, and biological age. These algorithms’ outputs based on a single preoperative ECG were correlated with patient mortality data. Results. Among 6504 KT recipients included in the study, 1764 (27.1%) died within a median follow-up of 5.7 y (interquartile range: 3.00–9.29 y). All AI-ECG algorithms were independently associated with long-term all-cause mortality (P < 0.001). Notably, few patients had a clinical cardiac diagnosis at the time of transplant, indicating that AI-ECG scores were predictive even in asymptomatic patients. When adjusted for multiple clinical factors such as recipient age, diabetes, and pretransplant dialysis, AI algorithms for atrial fibrillation and aortic stenosis remained independently associated with long-term mortality. These algorithms also improved the C-statistic for predicting overall (C = 0.74) and cardiac-related deaths (C = 0.751). Conclusions. The findings suggest that AI-enabled preoperative ECG analysis can be a valuable tool in predicting long-term mortality following KT and could aid in identifying patients who may benefit from enhanced cardiac monitoring because of increased risk.

Abstract Objective To compare the performance of a newly developed race-free kidney recipient specific glomerular filtration rate (GFR) equation with the three current main equations for measuring GFR in kidney transplant recipients. Design Development and validation study Setting 17 cohorts in Europe, the United States, and Australia (14 transplant centres, three clinical trials). Participants 15 489 adults (3622 in development cohort (Necker, Saint Louis, and Toulouse hospitals, France), 11 867 in multiple external validation cohorts) who received kidney transplants between 1 January 2000 and 1 January 2021. Main outcome measure The main outcome measure was GFR, measured according to local practice. Performance of the GFR equations was assessed using P 30 (proportion of estimated GFR (eGFR) within 30% of measured GFR (mGFR)) and correct classification (agreement between eGFR and mGFR according to GFR stages). The race-free equation, based on creatinine level, age, and sex, was developed using additive and multiplicative linear regressions, and its performance was compared with the three current main GFR equations: Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) equation, Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) 2009 equation, and race-free CKD-EPI 2021 equation. Results The study included 15 489 participants, with 50 464 mGFR and eGFR values. The mean GFR was 53.18 mL/min/1.73m 2 (SD 17.23) in the development cohort and 55.90 mL/min/1.73m 2 (19.69) in the external validation cohorts. Among the current GFR equations, the race-free CKD-EPI 2021 equation showed the lowest performance compared with the MDRD and CKD-EPI 2009 equations. When race was included in the kidney recipient specific GFR equation, performance did not increase. The race-free kidney recipient specific GFR equation showed significantly improved performance compared with the race-free CKD-EPI 2021 equation and performed well in the external validation cohorts (P 30 ranging from 73.0% to 91.3%). The race-free kidney recipient specific GFR equation performed well in several subpopulations of kidney transplant recipients stratified by race (P 30 73.0-91.3%), sex (72.7-91.4%), age (70.3-92.0%), body mass index (64.5-100%), donor type (58.5-92.9%), donor age (68.3-94.3%), treatment (78.5-85.2%), creatinine level (72.8-91.3%), GFR measurement method (73.0-91.3%), and timing of GFR measurement post-transplant (72.9-95.5%). An online application was developed that estimates GFR based on recipient’s creatinine level, age, and sex ( https://transplant-prediction-system.shinyapps.io/eGFR_equation_KTX/ ). Conclusion A new race-free kidney recipient specific GFR equation was developed and validated using multiple, large, international cohorts of kidney transplant recipients. The equation showed high accuracy and outperformed the race-free CKD-EPI 2021 equation that was developed in individuals with native kidneys. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov NCT05229939 .

Background. Few studies have addressed immunosuppression management after allograft failure (AF). Immunosuppression withdrawal to minimize complications must be balanced with the risk of sensitization and potentially reduced retransplantation. We aimed to determine relationships between immunosuppression, death, sensitization, and retransplantation among patients with AF. Methods. We performed a single-center retrospective study of patients transplanted from October 2007 to May 2017 with AF. We collected data on demographics, immunosuppression, calculated panel reactive antibody (cPRA) levels, death, retransplantation, and dialysis. Cox regression models were used to evaluate factors associated with death and retransplantation. Results. From October 2007 to May 2017, 1354 solitary ABO-compatible transplants were performed, of which 97 failed. Ten percent of patients received a preemptive retransplant. Among those who returned to dialysis (n = 87), 35% died, 25% received another transplant, and 30% remained on dialysis. After AF, 46% of patients discontinued immunosuppression. The cPRA was unchanged if immunosuppression was maintained, but immunosuppression discontinuation was associated with increased cPRA from a median (interquartile range) of 18 (0–99) to 96 (88.5–100.0; P = 0.003). Age at failure (hazard ratio, 1.1; confidence interval, 1.0-1.1) and cardiovascular disease were associated with death (hazard ratio, 2.9; confidence interval, 1.2-7.0) in multivariate analysis. Importantly, immunosuppression maintenance was not associated with increased death or retransplantation despite the increase in cPRA that occurred when immunosuppression was discontinued. Conclusions. Kidney transplant recipients with AF have a high mortality rate after dialysis initiation. Although immunosuppression withdrawal was associated with increased cPRA, it was not associated with reduced retransplantation. Therefore, it is reasonable to discontinue immunosuppression after AF despite sensitization if retransplantation is delayed.

Significance Statement Glomerular volume, ischemic glomeruli, and global glomerulosclerosis are not consistently assessed on kidney transplant biopsies. The authors evaluated morphometric measures of glomerular volume, the percentage of global glomerulosclerosis, and the percentage of ischemic glomeruli and assessed changes in these measures over time to determine whether such changes predict late allograft failure. All three features increased from transplant to five-year biopsy. Kidneys with smaller glomeruli at 5 years had more global glomerulosclerosis and a higher percentage of ischemic-appearing glomeruli. Smaller glomeruli and increasing percentages of global glomerulosclerosis and ischemic glomeruli at 5 years predicted allograft failure. Only increased percentage of ischemic glomeruli predicted allograft failure at 5 years independent of all Banff scores. Glomerular changes reflect pathologic processes that predicted allograft loss; measuring them quantitatively might enhance the current Banff system and provide biomarkers for intervention trials. Background Histology can provide insight into the biology of renal allograft loss. However, studies are lacking that use quantitative morphometry to simultaneously assess changes in mean glomerular volume and in the percentages of globally sclerosed glomeruli (GSG) and ischemic-appearing glomeruli in surveillance biopsies over time to determine whether such changes are correlated with late graft failure. Methods We used digital scans of surveillance biopsies (at implantation and at 1 and 5 years after transplantation) to morphometrically quantify glomerular volume and the percentages of GSG and ischemic-appearing glomeruli in a cohort of 835 kidney transplants. Cox proportional hazards models assessed the risk of allograft failure with these three glomerular features. Results From implantation to 5 years, mean glomerular volume increased by nearly 30% (from 2.8×10 6 to 3.6×10 6 µm 3 ), mean percentage of GSG increased from 3.2% to 13.2%, and mean percentage of ischemic-appearing glomeruli increased from 0.8% to 9.5%. Higher percentages of GSG and ischemic-appearing glomeruli at 5-year biopsy predicted allograft loss. The three glomerular features at 5-year biopsy were related; the percentage of GSG and the percentage of ischemic glomeruli were positively correlated, and both were inversely correlated to glomerular volume. At 5 years, only 5.3% of biopsies had ≥40% ischemic glomeruli, but 45% of these grafts failed (versus 11.6% for <40% ischemic glomeruli). Higher Banff scores were more common with increasing percentages of GSG and ischemia, but at 5 years, only the percentage of ischemic glomeruli added to predictive models adjusted for Banff scores. Conclusions Glomerular changes reflect important pathologic processes that predict graft loss. Measuring glomerular changes quantitatively on surveillance biopsies, especially the proportion of ischemic-appearing glomeruli, may enhance the current Banff system and be a useful surrogate end point for clinical intervention trials. Podcast This article contains a podcast at