Tang, Chad

e16535 Background: RMC is a rare and highly aggressive malignancy that predominantly affects young individuals with sickle hemoglobinopathies. Due to its rarity, no validated prognostic models exist to guide clinical decision-making. We aimed to develop and internally validate a prognostic model for patients with RMC using routinely available clinical and laboratory variables. Methods: We analyzed a single-institution cohort of patients with RMC. Candidate variables were identified based on biological plausibility and represented in a directed acyclic graph. Missing data were handled via multiple imputation by chained equations ( m = 50). Variables were ranked using elastic net Cox regression ( α = 0.5, λ = λ min ) with stability selection derived from 100 bootstrap resamples per imputed dataset. Predictors achieving > 60% selection frequency were retained for a nested parsimony analysis. Bootstrap internal validation ( B = 2000) estimated optimism-corrected discrimination and calibration performance, with the calibration slope applied as global shrinkage to penalize final coefficients for overfitting. Clinical utility was evaluated via decision curve analysis (DCA) at 18- and 24-month horizons. Results: Among 180 patients (median age 29; IQR 23–37), 142 deaths occurred with a median follow-up of 12.4 months. The final model included four predictors (Table). The optimism-corrected c-index was 0.667 (optimism = 0.009), and the calibration slope was 0.964, indicating minimal overfitting. Calibration plots showed excellent predicted-observed agreement at 12, 18, 24, and 36 months. DCA showed net benefit across threshold probabilities of 10%–75% at 18 months and 10%–80% at 24 months compared to default strategies. In sensitivity analysis, inclusion of TP53 mutation status improved discrimination ( c -index 0.686) and model fit ( ΔAIC −10.6). An interactive web-based risk calculator was developed to facilitate clinical implementation. Conclusions: This study presents the first internally validated prognostic model for RMC, demonstrating acceptable discrimination and excellent calibration using routinely available variables. By stratifying patients into distinct risk groups, this model may inform treatment intensity—guiding escalation to multi-agent regimens or sequential chemotherapy cycling in high-risk patients, while identifying lower-risk patients who may benefit from de-escalation strategies such as metastasis-directed therapy for oligometastatic disease or consideration of cytoreductive nephrectomy. External validation is warranted. Variable Time Ratio 95% CI p value ECOG performance status 0.64 0.53–0.77 <0.001 Distal (non-retroperitoneal) lymph node metastases 0.69 0.52–0.92 0.011 Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio 0.98 0.94–1.02 0.25 Corrected calcium (mg/dL) 0.77 0.56–1.06 0.10 Sensitivity Analysis Only TP53 Mutation 0.63 0.36-1-10 0.10

PURPOSE We tested the hypothesis that adding metastasis-directed therapy (MDT) to standard-of-care (SOC) systemic therapy improves progression-free survival (PFS) among patients with oligometastatic disease. METHODS EXTEND was a multicenter randomized phase II trial. Patients with 1-5 metastases were randomly assigned to MDT + SOC versus SOC in one of the six baskets (breast, pancreas, kidney, two prostate baskets, and an other basket) with basket-specific stratification and powering. PFS, the primary end point, was prespecified in the per-protocol set within each basket, across all baskets, and across all baskets excluding the prostate baskets. Exploratory end points included circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) and immune profiling. RESULTS From 2018 through 2023, 521 patients were screened, 350 were randomly assigned, and 334 were analyzed per protocol (MDT + SOC, n = 166; SOC, n = 168). Radiotherapy was used as MDT for 98% of metastases (370/379). Overall, after a median follow-up of 53 months, PFS was improved with MDT + SOC (hazard ratio [HR], 0.54 [95% CI, 0.41 to 0.72], P < .001). Similarly, PFS was improved when excluding the prostate baskets (HR, 0.60 [95% CI, 0.40 to 0.89]). Within each basket, PFS superiority was identified for the pancreas, prostate, and other baskets, whereas the breast and kidney baskets were inconclusive. At enrollment, detectable ctDNA correlated with shorter PFS and survival; by contrast, ctDNA clearance 3 months postenrollment correlated with improved survival. MDT + SOC-induced systemic immune activation was most pronounced among baskets demonstrating PFS superiority. CONCLUSION The phase II EXTEND trial supports the addition of MDT to SOC for oligometastatic disease. Histology-specific efficacy signals were identified for phase III testing. Translational insights suggest the potential for optimizing the definition of oligometastasis using ctDNA and point to systemic immune responses as a possible mechanism of benefit from MDT.

382 Background: Androgen receptor signaling drives prostate cancer (PC) progression, and genes involved in androgen production, uptake, and conversion (APUC) are key therapeutic targets. We previously defined a 6-APUC gene set ( HSD3B1, HSD3B2, CYP3A43, CYP11A1, CYP11B1, and CYP17A1 ), that identified metastatic PC with favorable prognosis and predict docetaxel benefit. However, the expression landscape and clinical relevance of APUC genes have not been interrogated in localized PC. Methods: We analyzed the expression of 21 APUC genes in 55,329 radical prostatectomy tumor samples that underwent Decipher prostate genomic classifier (GC) testing (Veracyte Inc) between 2016-2024. Baseline clinical/pathologic factors were retrieved from Decipher GRID database (NCT02609269). Associations between gene expression quartiles with PathoGenomic Risk Factors (PGRF) including Very High Decipher score >0.85 (VHD), Grade Group (GG) 4-5, LNI and SVI were examined. Associations with distant metastatic (DM) outcomes and metastasis free survival (MFS) were evaluated using logistic regression in Mayo545 and Cox regression in Meta855 RP cohorts, respectively. Results: High expression of SRD5A2 was associated with favorable PGRF (lower odds ratio (OR), p<0.0001), lower rate of development of DM (OR 0.36, p<0.05), and longer MFS (Hazard ratio (HR) 0.51, p<0.05). HSD17B6 showed similar results for PGRF (lower OR, p<0.0001), DM (OR 0.58, p<0.05) and longer MFS (HR 0.39, p<0.05) despite being associated with GG4-5 and SVI+ in samples with VHD. In contrast, high expression of SRD5A3 and HSD17B10 had high OR for PGRFs (p<0.0001). High expression of SLCO2B1 , an androgen uptake gene, had the strongest association with GG4-5 and SVI/LNI (p<0.001 for both). We noted that SRD5A2 lacked correlation with SRD5A1 and SRD5A3 , which instead correlated with each other. Compared to all APUC genes, SRD5A2 had limited correlations with almost all APUC genes, including ones that exhibited robust cross correlation with each other . Similar to our prior finding, most APUC genes demonstrated negative correlation with AR expression and AR activity signatures. Key outcomes were validated based on transcriptomic data from 492 samples from TCGA database. Conclusions: Comprehensive analysis of 21 APUC genes in over 55,000 PC identified distinct, context-dependent associations with metastatic outcomes and clinical and molecular risk factors. Notably, high SRD5A2 expression was associated with lower odds of high-risk features and metastatic outcomes, whereas SRD5A1 and SRD5A3 linked to adverse outcomes, suggesting critical yet divergent roles among 5-alpha-reductase family members. These findings underscoring androgen-metabolic heterogeneity and highlighting SRD5A2 as a potential biomarker of indolent biology in localized prostate cancer.

160 Background: To our knowledge, no tools are available to guide care in oligometastatic prostate cancer (omPC). Here, we leveraged individual patient-level data pooled from 8 randomized trials in the X-Met collaboration to construct CEREBRO, a tool for predicting patient-specific responses to various treatment scenarios. Methods: Patients with omPC from the STOMP, ORIOLE, SABR COMET, EXTEND continuous ADT, EXTEND intermittent ADT, ARTO, RADIOSA, and RAVENS trials were included. 6 patients (1%) with missing data were excluded. Treatment scenarios were defined as active surveillance (AS), metastasis-directed therapy (MDT), systemic therapy (ST), or MDT+ST. To account for varying baseline hazards, Weibull models were fit for overall survival (OS); progression-free survival (PFS); and castration-resistance free survival (CRFS) for patients with hormone-sensitive disease. Endpoint definitions were harmonized per X-Met framework. Results: Of 600 patients included (treatment scenarios: AS=50; MDT=153; ST=172; MDT+ST=225), 405 (67%) had hormone-sensitive omPC. With median follow-up of 38 months, median PFS, CRFS, and OS of all patients were 18, 70, and 84 months. In order of relative contribution, inputs for predicting outcomes were: treatment scenario, stage, prostate-specific antigen annotated by ADT status, metachronous vs synchronous presentation, imaging type, number of metastases, hormone sensitivity, and age. The model for each endpoint showed robust fit, calibration, superiority against the null model (per the likelihood ratio test), and risk stratification (Table). Median PFS times for model-defined low-, intermediate-, and high-risk strata were 46 months, 18 months, and 7 months ( p <0.0001). In addition, the PFS and OS models also showed strong discrimination via c index and a large interval of risk probabilities with additive clinical utility per decision-curve analysis (Table). A public webpage will be made available to facilitate prospective trial stratification, patient counseling for patient-specific outcome predictions for each potential treatment scenario, and forecasts comparing outcomes between treatment scenarios. Conclusions: CEREBRO is a high-performance tool, trained on robust prospective data from 8 randomized trials with routinely collected clinical variables, for predicting risk and treatment outcomes in omPC. Given the uncertainties in optimal timing of MDT and combination with ST, this tool has been built to facilitate current decision making. External validation is planned. Model summary. Endpoint C index (95% CI) Calibration Likelihood ratio p Risk strata p Net clinical utility observed between thresholds PFS 0.72 (0.70-0.75) 1.04 <0.0001 <0.0001 0.2-1.0 CRFS 0.63 (0.60-0.70) 1.01 0.02 0.004 0.2-0.5 OS 0.81 (0.76-0.86) 1.01 <0.0001 <0.0001 0.05-1.0

498 Background: Radiotherapy-based metastasis-directed therapy (MDT) has emerged as a viable treatment paradigm for oligometastatic clear cell renal cell carcinoma (ccRCC). However, the optimal integration of MDT with frontline immune checkpoint inhibition (ICI) is unclear, especially in light of the M1 NED subgroup analysis of KEYNOTE-564 suggestive of a larger benefit from adjuvant pembrolizumab. Here, we sought to compare the effects of MDT with or without pembrolizumab on clinical and translational outcomes among patients with oligometastatic ccRCC enrolled on two prospective phase II trials. Methods: We undertook an exploratory cohort study of two prospective, single-arm, investigator-initiated phase II trials. The RAPPORT trial (NCT02855203) assigned 30 patients to radiotherapy-based MDT followed by pembrolizumab 200 mg Q3W for eight cycles (MDT+ICI cohort). The MD Anderson trial (NCT03575611) assigned 121 patients to serial MDT (which was almost exclusively radiotherapy-based) without systemic therapy (MDT cohort). For both trials, eligibility criteria consisted of 1 to 5 ccRCC metastatic lesions amenable to MDT. For the present analysis, the primary endpoint was progression-free survival (PFS), prospectively defined by RECIST v1.1 and analyzed using Cox regression. Peripheral blood flow cytometry obtained at baseline, end of MDT in both cohorts (after 1 cycle of ICI in the MDT+ICI cohort), and after completion of all treatment in both cohorts (3 months in the MDT alone cohort and 12 months in the MDT+ICI cohort) was compared using adjusted linear mixed effect models. Results: A total of 150 patients were included for analysis (MDT+ICI: 30; MDT: 120). Median follow-up time was 34 months (MDT+ICI: 28; MDT: 36). At enrollment, the MDT+ICI cohort had a larger number of metastases (median 3 vs 1). Adjusted for prognostic factors, median PFS was 28 months after MDT+ICI and 17 months after MDT (HR, 0.57; 95% CI: 0.31 to 0.998; P = 0.049). Induction of activated systemic CD8 + T cells (ICOS + ) was observed in both cohorts following MDT; however, this increase was greater in the MDT+ICI cohort. Moreover, there was evidence of decreased systemic CD8 + T cell immunosuppression (CD73 + ) following treatment cessation in the MDT+ICI group. Conclusions: To our knowledge, this is the largest prospective analysis of MDT for ccRCC in the ICI era. The addition of maintenance ICI to MDT may improve clinical outcomes in patients with oligometastatic ccRCC. Greater immunomodulatory signals were observed with MDT+ICI, providing a mechanistic link to the clinical benefits. The ASTROs trial (NCT06004336) randomizing patients with oligometastatic ccRCC to MDT with or without pembrolizumab has been initiated to test the hypotheses generated by the present study. Clinical trial information: NCT02855203 and NCT03575611 .

PURPOSE Randomized clinical trials (RCTs) have shown progression-free survival (PFS) benefits of metastasis-directed therapy (MDT) without androgen deprivation therapy for oligometastatic castration-sensitive prostate cancer (omCSPC). Most patients with bone metastatic (BM) omCSPC recur with additional bone disease after MDT. We hypothesized the BM-targeting alpha-emitter radium-223 dichloride (Ra223) could target subclinical bone disease and delay progression. METHODS This is an investigator-initiated, multicenter, open-label phase II RCT. Eligible men with recurrent omCSPC with ≥one bone metastasis (≤three on conventional imaging and/or ≤five on molecular imaging) were randomly assigned (1:1) to stereotactic ablative radiation (SABR) MDT alone or SABR MDT with Ra223 (six cycles). Primary end point was composite PFS. RESULTS From August 9, 2019, to March 2, 2023, 64 patients were randomly assigned, 33 to SABR MDT and 31 to SABR MDT/Ra223 balancing for key covariates. Most SABR MDT/Ra223 patients (87%) received six cycles of Ra223. The median PFS was 11.8 months with SABR MDT and 10.5 months with SABR MDT/Ra223 (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 1.42 [95% CI, 0.79 to 2.56]; P = .24). Seven patients (11%) experienced grade 3 treatment-related adverse events (no grade 4 or 5), 2 of 33 (6%) with SABR and 5 of 30 (17%) with SABR MDT/Ra223. Patients with high-risk (HiRi) pathogenic mutations in ATM , BRCA1/2 , RB1 , or TP53 had worse PFS (HR, 5.95 [95% CI, 1.83 to 19.3]; P = .003). Greater T-cell receptor (TCR) unique productive rearrangements were prognostic for improved PFS independent of the treatment arm (aHR, 0.45 [95% CI, 0.21 to 0.96]; P = .04). CONCLUSION Adding Ra223 to SABR MDT in BM omCSPC does not delay progression of disease. We provide evidence for an HiRi mutational signature and TCR repertoire as prognostic biomarkers in omCSPC treated with SABR MDT, highlighting the importance of collecting biological correlates in RCTs for omCSPC.

140 Background: In the phase II EXTEND iADT omPC basket, MDT+iADT improved progression-free survival (PFS) vs iADT. Here we present the primary results of the EXTEND cADT omPC basket. We further report a pre-specified combined analysis with updated results from the iADT basket and examine the effects of MDT on immunity. Methods: Patients with 1 to 5 omPC metastases were randomized 1:1 to MDT+cADT vs cADT (NCT03599765). MDT consisted of definitive local therapy. cADT consisted of ADT +/- second-generation anti-androgens. The primary endpoint was per-protocol PFS, defined by biochemical criteria (Prostate Cancer Working Group 3), radiologic measures (RECIST v1.1), clinical progression, or death. 87 patients were needed to show superiority at a one-sided P of 0.10 by log-rank test. CDR3 regions in rearranged T cell receptor (TCR) β-chains from pre- and post-enrollment peripheral blood were sequenced with immunoSEQ (Adaptive Biotech). TCR repertoire modulation was defined as having TCR expansion plus contraction using a false-discovery-corrected betabinomial model. TCR sequencing from the ORIOLE trial (NCT02680587) was assessed for external validation. Results: From 2018 to 2022, 87 randomized patients were treated per protocol (MDT+cADT: 45; cADT: 42). 39% had castrate resistant omPC. MDT was definitive radiotherapy in all cases. With median follow-up of 31 mo, median PFS was 47 mo after MDT+cADT vs 22 mo after cADT (HR 0.50; 95% CI 0.23 to 1.08; one-sided P = 0.036). In the combined analysis (N=174) with median follow-up of 42 mo, MDT+ADT improved PFS (HR 0.45; 95% CI 0.30 to 0.69; P < 0.001), radiologic PFS (HR 0.63; 95% CI 0.40 to 0.97; P = 0.038), and castration-resistance free-survival (HR 0.40; 95% CI 0.19 to 0.82; P = 0.013). MDT+ADT had higher odds of TCR repertoire modulation vs ADT (55% vs 15%, P < 0.001). This finding was validated in the ORIOLE trial (MDT: 57% vs observation: 19%, P = 0.03). Among the subset of patients with extreme responses, random forest modeling of 37 clinical/immune variables identified TCR repertoire modulation as the variable with highest importance; further, MDT+ADT induced TCR repertoire modulation in all patients with favorable responses (i.e. PFS > 4 years) and none with unfavorable responses (i.e. PFS < 1 year). Among all patients randomized to MDT+ADT, TCR repertoire modulation was associated with longer PFS (HR 0.21; 95% CI 0.06 to 0.76; P = 0.02). Conclusions: MDT+cADT met the PFS primary endpoint of the phase II EXTEND trial, warranting phase III testing. From the combined analysis, MDT+ADT may also improve longer term outcomes including radiologic PFS and castration-resistance-free survival. Improved outcomes may result from MDT-induced immunomodulation, with implications for future trial design. Clinical trial information: NCT03599765 .

Abstract Purpose: Metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC) resistant to androgen receptor signaling inhibitors (ARSI) is often lethal. Liquid biopsy biomarkers for this deadly form of disease remain under investigation, and underpinning mechanisms remain ill-understood. Experimental Design: We applied targeted cell-free DNA (cfDNA) sequencing to 126 patients with mCRPC from three academic cancer centers and separately performed genome-wide cfDNA methylation sequencing on 43 plasma samples collected prior to the initiation of first-line ARSI treatment. To analyze the genome-wide sequencing data, we performed nucleosome positioning and differential methylated region analysis. We additionally analyzed single-cell and bulk RNA sequencing data from 14 and 80 patients with mCRPC, respectively, to develop and validate a stem-like signature, which we inferred from cfDNA. Results: Targeted cfDNA sequencing detected AR/enhancer alterations prior to first-line ARSIs that correlated with significantly worse progression-free survival (P = 0.01; HR = 2.12) and overall survival (P = 0.02; HR = 2.48). Plasma methylome analysis revealed that AR/enhancer lethal mCRPC patients have significantly higher promoter-level hypomethylation than AR/enhancer wild-type mCRPC patients (P &lt; 0.0001). Moreover, gene ontology and CytoTRACE analysis of nucleosomally more accessible transcription factors in cfDNA revealed enrichment for stemness-associated transcription factors in patients with lethal mCRPC. The resulting stemness signature was then validated in a completely held-out cohort of 80 patients with mCRPC profiled by tumor RNA sequencing. Conclusions: We analyzed a total of 220 patients with mCRPC, validated the importance of cell-free AR/enhancer alterations as a prognostic biomarker in lethal mCRPC, and showed that the underlying mechanism for lethality involves reprogramming developmental states toward increased stemness. See related commentary by Nawfal et al., p. 7