Sanders, James O

Study Design. Prospective multicenter study data were used for model derivation and externally validated using retrospective cohort data. Objective. Derive and validate a prognostic model of benefit from bracing for adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS). Summary of Background Data. The Bracing in Adolescent Idiopathic Scoliosis Trial (BrAIST) demonstrated the superiority of bracing over observation to prevent curve progression to the surgical threshold; 42% of untreated subjects had a good outcome, and 28% progressed to the surgical threshold despite bracing, likely due to poor adherence. To avoid over-treatment and to promote patient goal setting and adherence, bracing decisions (who and how much) should be based on physician and patient discussions informed by individual-level data from high-quality predictive models. Materials and Methods. Logistic regression was used to predict curve progression to <45° at skeletal maturity (good prognosis) in 269 BrAIST subjects who were observed or braced. Predictors included age, sex, body mass index, Risser stage, Cobb angle, curve pattern, and treatment characteristics (hours of brace wear and in-brace correction). Internal and external validity were evaluated using jackknifed samples of the BrAIST data set and an independent cohort (n=299) through estimates of discrimination and calibration. Results. The final model included age, sex, body mass index, Risser stage, Cobb angle, and hours of brace wear per day. The model demonstrated strong discrimination ( c -statistics 0.83–0.87) and calibration in all data sets. Classifying patients as low risk (high probability of a good prognosis) at the probability cut point of 70% resulted in a specificity of 92% and a positive predictive value of 89%. Conclusion. This externally validated model can be used by clinicians and families to make informed, individualized decisions about when and how much to brace to avoid progression to surgery. If widely adopted, this model could decrease overbracing of AIS, improve adherence, and, most importantly, decrease the likelihood of spinal fusion in this population.

Background: Severe adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS) can be treated with instrumented fusion, but the number of anchors needed for optimal correction is controversial. Methods: We conducted a multicenter, randomized study that included patients undergoing spinal fusion for single thoracic curves between 45° and 65°, the most common form of operatively treated AIS. Of the 211 patients randomized, 108 were assigned to a high-density screw pattern and 103, to a low-density screw pattern. Surgeons were instructed to use ≥1.8 implants per spinal level fused for patients in the high-implant-density group or ≤1.4 implants per spinal level fused for patients in the low-implant-density group. The primary outcome measure was the percent correction of the coronal curve at the 2-year follow-up. The power analysis for this trial required 174 patients to show equivalence, defined as a 95% confidence interval (CI) within a ±10% correction margin with a probability of 90%. Results: In the intention-to-treat analysis, the mean percent correction of the coronal curve was equivalent between the high-density and low-density groups at the 2-year follow-up (67.6% versus 65.7%; difference, −1.9% [95% CI: −6.1%, 2.2%]). In the per-protocol cohorts, the mean percent correction of the coronal curve was also equivalent between the 2 groups at the 2-year follow-up (65.0% versus 66.1%; difference, 1.1% [95% CI: −3.0%, 5.2%]). A total of 6 patients in the low-density group and 5 patients in the high-density group required reoperation (p = 1.0). Conclusions: In the setting of spinal fusion for primary thoracic AIS curves between 45° and 65°, the percent coronal curve correction obtained with use of a low-implant-density construct and that obtained with use of a high-implant-density construct were equivalent. Level of Evidence: Therapeutic Level I . See Instructions for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.