Krengel, Walter F.

Study Design. Prospective multicenter study data were used for model derivation and externally validated using retrospective cohort data. Objective. Derive and validate a prognostic model of benefit from bracing for adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS). Summary of Background Data. The Bracing in Adolescent Idiopathic Scoliosis Trial (BrAIST) demonstrated the superiority of bracing over observation to prevent curve progression to the surgical threshold; 42% of untreated subjects had a good outcome, and 28% progressed to the surgical threshold despite bracing, likely due to poor adherence. To avoid over-treatment and to promote patient goal setting and adherence, bracing decisions (who and how much) should be based on physician and patient discussions informed by individual-level data from high-quality predictive models. Materials and Methods. Logistic regression was used to predict curve progression to <45° at skeletal maturity (good prognosis) in 269 BrAIST subjects who were observed or braced. Predictors included age, sex, body mass index, Risser stage, Cobb angle, curve pattern, and treatment characteristics (hours of brace wear and in-brace correction). Internal and external validity were evaluated using jackknifed samples of the BrAIST data set and an independent cohort (n=299) through estimates of discrimination and calibration. Results. The final model included age, sex, body mass index, Risser stage, Cobb angle, and hours of brace wear per day. The model demonstrated strong discrimination ( c -statistics 0.83–0.87) and calibration in all data sets. Classifying patients as low risk (high probability of a good prognosis) at the probability cut point of 70% resulted in a specificity of 92% and a positive predictive value of 89%. Conclusion. This externally validated model can be used by clinicians and families to make informed, individualized decisions about when and how much to brace to avoid progression to surgery. If widely adopted, this model could decrease overbracing of AIS, improve adherence, and, most importantly, decrease the likelihood of spinal fusion in this population.

Background: Treatment outcomes and risk factors for neurological deficits in pediatric patients with an os odontoideum are unclear. Methods: We reviewed the data for 102 children with os odontoideum who were managed at 11 centers between 2000 and 2016 and had a minimum duration of follow-up of 2 years. Thirty-one children had nonoperative treatment, and 71 underwent instrumented posterior cervical spinal arthrodesis for the treatment of C1-C2 instability. Nonoperative treatment consisted of observation (n = 29) or immobilization with a cervical collar (n = 1) or halo body jacket (n = 1). Surgical treatment consisted of atlantoaxial (n = 50) or occipitocervical (n = 21) arthrodesis. One patient also underwent transoral odontoidectomy. Results: Thirty children (29%) presented with neurological deficits, 28 of whom had radiographic atlantoaxial instability (atlantoaxial distance >5 mm) or limited space (≤13 mm) available for the spinal cord (risk ratio, 7.8 [95% confidence interval, 2.0 to 31] compared with children with no radiographic risk factors). The 27 children without neurological deficits or atlantoaxial instability at presentation underwent nonoperative treatment and remained asymptomatic. Of the initial nonoperative cohort, one child developed atlantoaxial instability, and another had a persistent neurological deficit; both children underwent spinal arthrodesis during the study period. One child with cervical instability declined surgery and remained asymptomatic. Spinal fusion occurred in 68 patients in the surgical group by the end of the study period (mean, 3.7 years; range, 2.0 to 11.8 years). Surgical complications occurred in 21 children, including nonunion in 12, new neurological deficits in 4, cerebrospinal fluid leak in 2, symptomatic instrumentation requiring removal 2, and vertebral artery injury in 1. Nine children underwent revision surgery. In the surgical group, Japanese Orthopaedic Association neurological function scores improved significantly from preoperatively to the latest follow-up for the upper extremities (p = 0.026) and lower extremities (p = 0.007). Conclusions: The risk of developing a neurological deficit was strongly associated with atlantoaxial instability and limited space available for the spinal cord in children with os odontoideum. Nonoperative treatment was safe for asymptomatic patients without atlantoaxial instability. Spinal arthrodesis resolved the neurological deficits of children with symptomatic os odontoideum. Level of Evidence: Therapeutic Level III . See Instructions for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.