Hresko, M. Timothy

Study Design. Prospective multicenter study data were used for model derivation and externally validated using retrospective cohort data. Objective. Derive and validate a prognostic model of benefit from bracing for adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS). Summary of Background Data. The Bracing in Adolescent Idiopathic Scoliosis Trial (BrAIST) demonstrated the superiority of bracing over observation to prevent curve progression to the surgical threshold; 42% of untreated subjects had a good outcome, and 28% progressed to the surgical threshold despite bracing, likely due to poor adherence. To avoid over-treatment and to promote patient goal setting and adherence, bracing decisions (who and how much) should be based on physician and patient discussions informed by individual-level data from high-quality predictive models. Materials and Methods. Logistic regression was used to predict curve progression to <45° at skeletal maturity (good prognosis) in 269 BrAIST subjects who were observed or braced. Predictors included age, sex, body mass index, Risser stage, Cobb angle, curve pattern, and treatment characteristics (hours of brace wear and in-brace correction). Internal and external validity were evaluated using jackknifed samples of the BrAIST data set and an independent cohort (n=299) through estimates of discrimination and calibration. Results. The final model included age, sex, body mass index, Risser stage, Cobb angle, and hours of brace wear per day. The model demonstrated strong discrimination ( c -statistics 0.83–0.87) and calibration in all data sets. Classifying patients as low risk (high probability of a good prognosis) at the probability cut point of 70% resulted in a specificity of 92% and a positive predictive value of 89%. Conclusion. This externally validated model can be used by clinicians and families to make informed, individualized decisions about when and how much to brace to avoid progression to surgery. If widely adopted, this model could decrease overbracing of AIS, improve adherence, and, most importantly, decrease the likelihood of spinal fusion in this population.

Background: Surgical indications for Scheuermann kyphosis are variable. We sought to evaluate the characteristics of patients undergoing operative versus nonoperative treatment of Scheuermann kyphosis to better understand current practices and the factors which contribute to the decision for surgical management. Methods: Multicenter prospective cohort study. We evaluated consecutive patients presenting with Scheuermann kyphosis. Patients underwent either surgical or nonoperative management according to surgeon and patient discretion. Preoperative patient-reported outcome measures (Scoliosis Research Society and Spinal Appearance Questionnaire scores), demographics, and radiographic characteristics were assessed. Results: Overall, 150 patients with Scheuermann kyphosis were enrolled, with 77 choosing nonoperative treatment and 73 treated operatively. Compared with the nonoperative cohort, patients treated operatively were older (16.3±2.0 vs. 15.1±2.2, P=0.0004), and had higher body mass index (26.3±7.2 vs. 22.7±6.5, P=0.003), had greater T2-T12 kyphosis (71±14 degrees vs. 61±12 degrees, P<0.001), increased pelvic incidence (46 vs. 41 degrees, P=0.03) and pelvic tilt (10 vs. 3 degrees, P=0.03). There was no detected difference in maximal sagittal Cobb angle in the operative versus nonoperative patients (73±11 vs. 70±12 degrees, P=0.11). Functionally, the operative patients had worse Scoliosis Research Society pain scores (3.7±0.9 vs. 4.1±0.7, P=0.0027) and appearance scores (2.9±0.7 vs. 3.4±0.8, P <0.0001). Conclusions: Patients undergoing surgical management of Scheuermann disease were more likely to have large body mass index and worse pain scores. Other factors beyond radiographic measurement likely contribute to the decision for surgical management of Scheuermann kyphosis. Level of Evidence: Level II.