Takahashi, Paul

Objective Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is an important viral pathogen in children, older adults and adults with certain high-risk conditions. In our prospective community-based cohort study of adults 50 years and older before the COVID-19 pandemic, the incidence of RSV acute respiratory infection (ARI) was 48.6 cases/1000 person-years (PY), which decreased to near zero during the COVID-19 pandemic. Our objective was to determine the incidence of RSV-ARI during the 2 years following the initial phase of the pandemic (2021–2022 and 2022–2023). Design This is a community-based prospective cohort study. Setting Adults living in southeast Minnesota from October 2021 to September 2022 (year 3) and October 2022 to September 2023 (year 4). Participants Adults≥50 years (n=2500). Primary and secondary outcomes We calculated incidence and attack rates for RSV-ARI as primary outcome and reported hospitalisations, pneumonia and death following ARI as secondary outcome. Results There were 2500 participants in the study with a mean age of 68.2 years (SD 9.3) at the start of year 3. Participants were predominantly female (60%), non-Hispanic white (96%) and residing in urban areas (76%). The incidence rate of RSV-ARI was 6.12/1000 PY (95% CI 3.42 to 10.09) in 2021–2022 and 16.40/1000 PY (95% CI 11.66 to 22.42) in 2022–2023. We noted higher attack rates of RSV-ARI during the winter months. There were no hospitalisations, pneumonia or deaths within 30 days of RSV-ARI. Conclusions Compared with the period before the COVID-19 pandemic, RSV-ARI incidence was lower in both 2021–2022 and 2022–2023 periods. In 2022–2023, the incidence increased 2.7-fold compared with the 2021–2022 period. The observed incidence rates, particularly the significant increase in the most recent season, underscore the continued public health relevance of RSV-ARI and support the rationale for ongoing RSV vaccination efforts to mitigate its overall burden in the population.

Abstract Background Data on respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) acute respiratory infection (ARI) among community-dwelling U.S. adults aged 18 to 64 years, particularly those with high-risk conditions (HRC), remain limited. This study estimated incidence and attack rates of RSV-ARI and RSV lower respiratory tract disease (LRTD) in adults with and without HRCs. Methods A multistate, community-based prospective cohort of adults aged 18 to 64 years with and without HRCs was followed from October 2022 to September 2024. Incidence rates and annual attack rates of RSV-ARI and RSV-LRTD were calculated by HRC presence and age group. Results Of 3375 adults with at least 1 HRC, the RSV-ARI incidence rate was 17.9 per 1000 person-years (attack rates: year 1, 1.87%; year 2, 1.56%), compared with 14.8 per 1000 person-years (year 1, 1.33%; year 2, 1.50%) among adults without HRCs. RSV-LRTD incidence was 10.0 per 1000 person-years in adults with HRCs versus 5.7 per 1000 person-years in those without. Asthma, congenital immunodeficiency, and immunosuppressive medication use were associated with increased incidence of RSV-ARI and RSV-LRTD; whereas adults with solid organ transplant and chronic kidney disease had a significantly higher incidence rate of RSV-LRTD compared to those without these conditions. Adults aged 18 to 49 years with HRCs had significantly higher RSV-LRTD incidence (9.6 vs 4.3 per 1000 person-years). After adjustment for age and sex, having ≥1 HRC was associated with a 62% increased RSV-LRTD risk, rising to 117% among adults aged 18 to 49 years. Conclusions Adults with HRCs—particularly asthma, congenital immunodeficiency, chronic kidney disease, immunosuppressive medication use, and solid organ transplant—experienced higher RSV-ARI and RSV-LRTD incidence. The elevated RSV-LRTD burden was most pronounced in adults aged 18 to 49 years with HRCs.

Introduction/Objectives: House call programs provide care for homebound patients. We conducted a case-control study to compare hospitalization and/or emergency department (ED) use by patients enrolled in a primary care house call program versus ambulatory (community-dwelling) patients. Methods: Program enrollees (cases) were matched by age and self-reported gender to community-dwelling patients (controls). The primary exposure was the combination of hospitalization and/or ED visits for 1 year before the index date (October 1, 2024). We used unadjusted and adjusted conditional logistic regression to determine differences in health care use. Results: We identified 26 cases (median [range] age, 84 [66-98] years; 16 [62%] female) and 130 controls. All cases had 4 or more chronic diseases, as compared with 87 (67%) of controls ( P = .003). A higher proportion of cases than controls had previous hospitalization and/or ED visits (84.6% vs 27.7%; P < .001). After adjusting for the number of chronic illnesses, no differences in previous hospitalization and/or ED use were identified between groups. Conclusions: Cases had more chronic illnesses and more hospitalizations and/or ED visits than community-dwelling controls. The comorbid health burden of participants in the house call program drove greater health care use and justifies a higher level of care for this medically complex patient population.

Abstract Background The incidence of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV)–acute respiratory infection (ARI) in community-dwelling adults after the Omicron variant of the COVID-19 pandemic is unknown. Our aim was to assess the incidence of RSV-ARI in adults aged 18 to 64 years over 2 consecutive RSV seasons (October–April 2022–2024) in 4 US states. Methods This community-based prospective cohort study comprised 7501 participants in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Florida, and Arizona. We calculated RSV-ARI and RSV–lower respiratory tract disease (LRTD) incidence and attack rates. We reported unadjusted incidence by age group, gender, race and ethnicity, Charlson Comorbidity Index, socioeconomic status, residential state, and rural/urban setting. Results Seasons 1 and 2 had 2250 and 2377 ARI episodes, respectively, with an RSV-ARI positivity rate of 5.5% for season 1 and 5.8% for season 2 among those tested. In season 1, the overall incidence of RSV-ARI was 27.71 (95% CI, 22.82–33.34) per 1000 person-years (1.49% attack rate). Almost half (49.0%) had RSV-LRTD, with an incidence of 13.53 (95% CI, 10.19–17.61) per 1000 person-years (0.73% attack rate). In season 2, the RSV-ARI and RSV-LRTD incidence rates were 26.39 (95% CI, 21.73–31.75) per 1000 person-years (1.51% attack rate) and 12.43 (95% CI, 9.31–16.26) per 1000 person-years (0.72% attack rate). RSV-ARI incidence peaked in November 2022 and December 2023. Conclusions Our observations suggest that RSV-ARI incidence and seasonal pattern are shifting to prepandemic RSV epidemiology.

Background Clinical risk scores are used to identify those at high risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). Despite preventative efforts, residual risk remains for many individuals. Very low‐density lipoprotein cholesterol (VLDL‐C) and lipid discordance could be contributors to the residual risk of ASCVD. Methods and Results Cardiovascular disease–free residents, aged ≥40 years, living in Olmsted County, Minnesota, were identified through the Rochester Epidemiology Project. Low‐density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL‐C) and VLDL‐C were estimated from clinically ordered lipid panels using the Sampson equation. Participants were categorized into concordant and discordant lipid pairings based on clinical cut points. Rates of incident ASCVD, including percutaneous coronary intervention, coronary artery bypass grafting, stroke, or myocardial infarction, were calculated during follow‐up. The association of LDL‐C and VLDL‐C with ASCVD was assessed using Cox proportional hazards regression. Interaction between LDL‐C and VLDL‐C was assessed. The study population (n=39 098) was primarily White race (94%) and female sex (57%), with a mean age of 54 years. VLDL‐C (per 10‐mg/dL increase) was significantly associated with an increased risk of incident ASCVD (hazard ratio, 1.07 [95% CI, 1.05–1.09]; P <0.001]) after adjustment for traditional risk factors. The interaction between LDL‐C and VLDL‐C was not statistically significant ( P =0.11). Discordant individuals with high VLDL‐C and low LDL‐C experienced the highest rate of incident ASCVD events, 16.9 per 1000 person‐years, during follow‐up. Conclusions VLDL‐C and lipid discordance are associated with a greater risk of ASCVD and can be estimated from clinically ordered lipid panels to improve ASCVD risk assessment.

Introduction/Objectives: To describe health outcomes of older adults enrolled in the Mayo Clinic Care Transitions (MCCT) program before and during the COVID-19 pandemic compared to unenrolled patients. Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of adults (age >60 years) in the MCCT program compared to a usual care control group from January 1, 2019, to September 20, 2022. The MCCT program involved a home, telephonic, or telemedicine visit by an advanced care provider. Outcomes were 30- and 180-day hospital readmissions, emergency department (ED) visit, and mortality. We performed a subgroup analysis after March 1, 2020 (during the pandemic). We analyzed data with Cox proportional hazards regression models and hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% CIs. Results: Of the 1,012 patients total, 354 were in the MCCT program and 658 were in the usual care group with a mean (SD) age of 81.1 (9.1) years overall. Thirty-day readmission was 16.9% (60 of 354) for MCCT patients and 14.7% (97 of 658) for usual care patients (HR, 1.24; 95% CI, 0.88-1.75). During the pandemic, the 30-day readmission rate was 15.1% (28 of 186) for MCCT patients and 14.9% (68 of 455) for usual care patients (HR, 1.20; 95% CI, 0.75-1.91). There was no difference between groups for 180-day hospitalization, 30- or 180-day ED visit, and 30- or 180-day mortality. Conclusions: Numerous factors involving patients, providers, and health care delivery systems during the pandemic most likely contributed to these findings.

Abstract Aims We developed new machine learning (ML) models and externally validated existing statistical models [ischaemic stroke predictive risk score (iScore) and totalled health risks in vascular events (THRIVE) scores] for predicting the composite of recurrent stroke or all-cause mortality at 90 days and at 3 years after hospitalization for first acute ischaemic stroke (AIS). Methods and results In adults hospitalized with AIS from January 2005 to November 2016, with follow-up until November 2019, we developed three ML models [random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM), and extreme gradient boosting (XGBOOST)] and externally validated the iScore and THRIVE scores for predicting the composite outcomes after AIS hospitalization, using data from 721 patients and 90 potential predictor variables. At 90 days and 3 years, 11 and 34% of patients, respectively, reached the composite outcome. For the 90-day prediction, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was 0.779 for RF, 0.771 for SVM, 0.772 for XGBOOST, 0.720 for iScore, and 0.664 for THRIVE. For 3-year prediction, the AUC was 0.743 for RF, 0.777 for SVM, 0.773 for XGBOOST, 0.710 for iScore, and 0.675 for THRIVE. Conclusion The study provided three ML-based predictive models that achieved good discrimination and clinical usefulness in outcome prediction after AIS and broadened the application of the iScore and THRIVE scoring system for long-term outcome prediction. Our findings warrant comparative analyses of ML and existing statistical method–based risk prediction tools for outcome prediction after AIS in new data sets.

Abstract Context Metformin is the first-line drug for treating diabetes but has a high failure rate. Objective To identify demographic and clinical factors available in the electronic health record (EHR) that predict metformin failure. Methods A cohort of patients with at least 1 abnormal diabetes screening test that initiated metformin was identified at 3 sites (Arizona, Mississippi, and Minnesota). We identified 22 047 metformin initiators (48% female, mean age of 57 ± 14 years) including 2141 African Americans, 440 Asians, 962 Other/Multiracial, 1539 Hispanics, and 16 764 non-Hispanic White people. We defined metformin failure as either the lack of a target glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) (&lt;7%) within 18 months of index or the start of dual therapy. We used tree-based extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) models to assess overall risk prediction performance and relative contribution of individual factors when using EHR data for risk of metformin failure. Results In this large diverse population, we observed a high rate of metformin failure (43%). The XGBoost model that included baseline HbA1c, age, sex, and race/ethnicity corresponded to high discrimination performance (C-index of 0.731; 95% CI 0.722, 0.740) for risk of metformin failure. Baseline HbA1c corresponded to the largest feature performance with higher levels associated with metformin failure. The addition of other clinical factors improved model performance (0.745; 95% CI 0.737, 0.754, P &lt; .0001). Conclusion Baseline HbA1c was the strongest predictor of metformin failure and additional factors substantially improved performance suggesting that routinely available clinical data could be used to identify patients at high risk of metformin failure who might benefit from closer monitoring and earlier treatment intensification.

AbstractBackground and AimsInfluenza is a challenging infectious illness for older adults. It is not completely clear whether influenza is associated with frailty or functional decline. We sought to determine the association between incident influenza infection and frailty and prefrailty in community patients over 50 years of age. We also investigated the association between influenza vaccination and frailty and prefrailty as a secondary aim.MethodsThis was a prospective community cohort study from October 2019 to November 2020 in participants over 50 years. The primary outcome was the development of frailty as defined by three of five frailty criteria (slow gait speed, low grip strength, 5% weight loss, low energy, and low physical functioning). The primary predictor was a positive polymerase chain reaction (PCR) for influenza infection. Influenza vaccination was based on electronic health record reviewing 1 year before enrollment. We reported the relationship between influenza and frailty by calculating odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) after adjustment for age, sex, socioeconomic status, Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI), influenza vaccine, and previous self‐rated frailty from multinomial logistic regression model comparing frail and prefrail to nonfrail subjects.ResultsIn 1135 participants, the median age was 67 years (interquartile range 60−74), with 41% men. Eighty‐one participants had PCR‐confirmed influenza (7.1%). Frailty was not associated with influenza, with an OR of 0.50 (95% CI 0.17−1.43) for frail participants compared to nonfrail participants. Influenza vaccination is associated with frailty, with an OR of 1.69 (95% CI 1.09−2.63) for frail compared to nonfrail. Frailty was associated with a higher CCI with an OR of 1.52 (95% CI 1.31−1.76).ConclusionWe did not find a relationship between influenza infection and frailty. We found higher vaccination rates in participants with frailty compared to nonfrail participants While influenza was not associated with frailty, future work may involve longer follow‐up.

Objectives: Clinicians recommend diet and exercise for overweight/obese patients. We conducted a secondary analysis of a randomized controlled clinical trial evaluating goal setting and pedometer use versus usual care on weight, waist circumference, and blood pressure of patients with multiple chronic conditions. Methods: In this trial, we recruited and randomized patients over 18 years with multiple chronic conditions. There were two groups with an immediate intervention group who received behavioral coaching and a pedometer versus a delayed control who received the intervention after 2 months. We evaluated body weight, waist circumference, and blood pressure as outcomes. We used analysis of covariance to evaluate differences between the intervention and the control groups. Results: Of 130 patients, mean age was 63.4 years (SD, 17.3). At 2 months, intervention participants lost 0.2 kg versus a 0.1-kg gain in the control participants ( P = .44). The immediate intervention group had significantly smaller waist circumference change at 2-month follow-up compared to control at −1.6 cm (95% confidence interval = −3.1 to −0.1), which was driven by an increase in waist circumference in the delayed control group. No difference in systolic blood pressure was observed. Discussion: We observed no difference in weight or blood pressure between the groups with obesity and multiple chronic conditions.