King, Katherine S.

Objective Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is an important viral pathogen in children, older adults and adults with certain high-risk conditions. In our prospective community-based cohort study of adults 50 years and older before the COVID-19 pandemic, the incidence of RSV acute respiratory infection (ARI) was 48.6 cases/1000 person-years (PY), which decreased to near zero during the COVID-19 pandemic. Our objective was to determine the incidence of RSV-ARI during the 2 years following the initial phase of the pandemic (2021–2022 and 2022–2023). Design This is a community-based prospective cohort study. Setting Adults living in southeast Minnesota from October 2021 to September 2022 (year 3) and October 2022 to September 2023 (year 4). Participants Adults≥50 years (n=2500). Primary and secondary outcomes We calculated incidence and attack rates for RSV-ARI as primary outcome and reported hospitalisations, pneumonia and death following ARI as secondary outcome. Results There were 2500 participants in the study with a mean age of 68.2 years (SD 9.3) at the start of year 3. Participants were predominantly female (60%), non-Hispanic white (96%) and residing in urban areas (76%). The incidence rate of RSV-ARI was 6.12/1000 PY (95% CI 3.42 to 10.09) in 2021–2022 and 16.40/1000 PY (95% CI 11.66 to 22.42) in 2022–2023. We noted higher attack rates of RSV-ARI during the winter months. There were no hospitalisations, pneumonia or deaths within 30 days of RSV-ARI. Conclusions Compared with the period before the COVID-19 pandemic, RSV-ARI incidence was lower in both 2021–2022 and 2022–2023 periods. In 2022–2023, the incidence increased 2.7-fold compared with the 2021–2022 period. The observed incidence rates, particularly the significant increase in the most recent season, underscore the continued public health relevance of RSV-ARI and support the rationale for ongoing RSV vaccination efforts to mitigate its overall burden in the population.

Abstract Background Data on respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) acute respiratory infection (ARI) among community-dwelling U.S. adults aged 18 to 64 years, particularly those with high-risk conditions (HRC), remain limited. This study estimated incidence and attack rates of RSV-ARI and RSV lower respiratory tract disease (LRTD) in adults with and without HRCs. Methods A multistate, community-based prospective cohort of adults aged 18 to 64 years with and without HRCs was followed from October 2022 to September 2024. Incidence rates and annual attack rates of RSV-ARI and RSV-LRTD were calculated by HRC presence and age group. Results Of 3375 adults with at least 1 HRC, the RSV-ARI incidence rate was 17.9 per 1000 person-years (attack rates: year 1, 1.87%; year 2, 1.56%), compared with 14.8 per 1000 person-years (year 1, 1.33%; year 2, 1.50%) among adults without HRCs. RSV-LRTD incidence was 10.0 per 1000 person-years in adults with HRCs versus 5.7 per 1000 person-years in those without. Asthma, congenital immunodeficiency, and immunosuppressive medication use were associated with increased incidence of RSV-ARI and RSV-LRTD; whereas adults with solid organ transplant and chronic kidney disease had a significantly higher incidence rate of RSV-LRTD compared to those without these conditions. Adults aged 18 to 49 years with HRCs had significantly higher RSV-LRTD incidence (9.6 vs 4.3 per 1000 person-years). After adjustment for age and sex, having ≥1 HRC was associated with a 62% increased RSV-LRTD risk, rising to 117% among adults aged 18 to 49 years. Conclusions Adults with HRCs—particularly asthma, congenital immunodeficiency, chronic kidney disease, immunosuppressive medication use, and solid organ transplant—experienced higher RSV-ARI and RSV-LRTD incidence. The elevated RSV-LRTD burden was most pronounced in adults aged 18 to 49 years with HRCs.

Abstract Background The incidence of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV)–acute respiratory infection (ARI) in community-dwelling adults after the Omicron variant of the COVID-19 pandemic is unknown. Our aim was to assess the incidence of RSV-ARI in adults aged 18 to 64 years over 2 consecutive RSV seasons (October–April 2022–2024) in 4 US states. Methods This community-based prospective cohort study comprised 7501 participants in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Florida, and Arizona. We calculated RSV-ARI and RSV–lower respiratory tract disease (LRTD) incidence and attack rates. We reported unadjusted incidence by age group, gender, race and ethnicity, Charlson Comorbidity Index, socioeconomic status, residential state, and rural/urban setting. Results Seasons 1 and 2 had 2250 and 2377 ARI episodes, respectively, with an RSV-ARI positivity rate of 5.5% for season 1 and 5.8% for season 2 among those tested. In season 1, the overall incidence of RSV-ARI was 27.71 (95% CI, 22.82–33.34) per 1000 person-years (1.49% attack rate). Almost half (49.0%) had RSV-LRTD, with an incidence of 13.53 (95% CI, 10.19–17.61) per 1000 person-years (0.73% attack rate). In season 2, the RSV-ARI and RSV-LRTD incidence rates were 26.39 (95% CI, 21.73–31.75) per 1000 person-years (1.51% attack rate) and 12.43 (95% CI, 9.31–16.26) per 1000 person-years (0.72% attack rate). RSV-ARI incidence peaked in November 2022 and December 2023. Conclusions Our observations suggest that RSV-ARI incidence and seasonal pattern are shifting to prepandemic RSV epidemiology.

Introduction: Using a digital process that leverages electronic health records (EHRs) can ease many of the challenges presented by the traditional enrollment process for clinical trials. We tested if automated batch enrollment using a technology-enabled subject recruitment system (TESRS) enhances recruitment while preserving representation of research subjects for the study population in our study setting. Methods: An ongoing community-based prospective adult cohort study was used to randomize 600 subjects who were eligible by age and residential address to TESRS (n = 300) and standard mailing method (n = 300), respectively, for 3 months. Then, TESRS was initiated and included automatic identification of patients’ preference for being contacted (online patient portal vs postal mail) from EHRs and automatic sending out of invitation letters followed by completion of a short online survey for checking eligibility and the digital consent process if eligible. We compared (1) median time to consent from invitation sent out per subject and total subjects recruited after a 3-month recruitment period, (2) the estimated study staff’s time, and (3) representation of sociodemographic characteristics (e.g., age, sex, race, SES measured by HOUSES index, and rural residence) between subjects recruited via TESRS and those via traditional mailing methods. Results: Median age of randomized subjects (n = 600) was 63 years with 52.0% female and 89.2% non-Hispanic White. Over a 3-month period, results showed consent rate via TESRS was 13% (39/297) similar to 11% (31/295) via standard mailing. However, recruitment was significantly faster with the TESRS approach (median 7 vs 26 days) given the study staff’s effort. Study staff’s time saved by using TESRS compared to standard mailing approach was estimated at 40 min per subject (equivalent to 200 h for 300 subjects). No significant differences in characteristics of research subjects from the study population were found. Conclusion: Our study demonstrated the utility of TESRS as a subject recruitment digital technology which significantly enhanced the recruitment effort while reducing the study staff burden of recruitment while maintaining the consistency of characteristics of recruited subjects. The strategy and support for implementing and testing TESRS in other study settings should be considered.

Introduction: Nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) is known to be a trigger for asthma exacerbation. However, little is known about the role of seasonal variation in indoor and outdoor NO 2 levels in childhood asthma in a mixed rural-urban setting of North America. Methods: This prospective cohort study, as a feasibility study, included 62 families with children (5-17 years) that had diagnosed persistent asthma residing in Olmsted County, Minnesota. Indoor and outdoor NO 2 concentrations were measured using passive air samples over 2 weeks in winter and 2 weeks in summer. We assessed seasonal variation in NO 2 levels in urban and rural residential areas and the association with asthma control status collected from participants’ asthma diaries during the study period. Results: Outdoor NO 2 levels were lower (median: 2.4 parts per billion (ppb) in summer, 3.9 ppb in winter) than the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) annual standard (53 ppb). In winter, a higher level of outdoor NO 2 was significantly associated with urban residential living area ( P = .014) and lower socioeconomic status (SES) ( P = .027). For both seasons, indoor NO 2 was significantly higher ( P < .05) in rural versus urban areas and in homes with gas versus electric stoves ( P < .05). Asthma control status was not associated with level of indoor or outdoor NO 2 in this cohort. Conclusions: NO 2 levels were low in this mixed rural-urban community and not associated with asthma control status in this small feasibility study. Further research with a larger sample size is warranted for defining a lower threshold of NO 2 concentration with health effect on asthma in mixed rural-urban settings.

Importance Little is known about the burden and outcomes of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV)–positive acute respiratory infection (ARI) in community-dwelling older adults. Objective To assess the incidence of RSV-positive ARI before and during the COVID-19 pandemic, and to assess outcomes for RSV-positive ARI in older adults. Design, Setting, and Participants This was a community-based cohort study of adults residing in southeast Minnesota that followed up with 2325 adults aged 50 years or older for 2 RSV seasons (2019-2021) to assess the incidence of RSV-positive ARI. The study assessed outcomes at 2 to 4 weeks, 6 to 7 months, and 12 to 13 months after RSV-positive ARI. Exposure RSV-positive and -negative ARI. Main Outcomes and Measures RSV status was the main study outcome. Incidence and attack rates of RSV-positive ARI were calculated during each RSV season, including before (October 2019 to April 2020) and during (October 2020 to April 2021) COVID-19 pandemic, and further calculated during non-RSV season (May to September 2021) for assessing impact of COVID-19. The self-reported quality of life (QOL) by Short-Form Health Survey-36 (SF-36) and physical functional measures (eg, 6-minute walk and spirometry) at each time point was assessed. Results In this study of 2325 participants, the median (range) age of study participants was 67 (50-98) years, 1380 (59%) were female, and 2240 (96%) were non-Hispanic White individuals. The prepandemic incidence rate of RSV-positive ARI was 48.6 (95% CI, 36.9-62.9) per 1000 person-years with a 2.50% (95% CI, 1.90%-3.21%) attack rate. No RSV-positive ARI case was identified during the COVID-19 pandemic RSV season. Incidence of 10.2 (95% CI, 4.1-21.1) per 1000 person-years and attack rate of 0.42%; (95% CI, 0.17%-0.86%) were observed during the summer of 2021. Based on prepandemic RSV season results, participants with RSV-positive ARI (vs matched RSV-negative ARI) reported significantly lower QOL adjusted mean difference (limitations due to physical health, −16.7 [95% CI, −31.8 to −1.8]; fatigue, −8.4 [95% CI, −14.3 to −2.4]; and difficulty in social functioning, −11.9 [95% CI, −19.8 to −4.0] within 2 to 4 weeks after RSV-positive ARI [ie, short-term outcome]). Compared with participants with RSV-negative ARI, those with RSV-positive ARI also had lower QOL (fatigue: −4.0 [95% CI, −8.5 to −1.3]; difficulty in social functioning, −5.8 [95% CI, −10.3 to −1.3]; and limitation due to emotional problem, −7.0 [95% CI, −12.7 to −1.3] at 6 to 7 months after RSV-positive ARI [intermediate-term outcome]; fatigue, −4.4 [95% CI, −7.3 to −1.5]; difficulty in social functioning, −5.2 [95% CI, −8.7 to −1.7] and limitation due to emotional problem, −5.7 [95% CI, −10.7 to −0.6] at 12-13 months after RSV-positive ARI [ie, long-term outcomes]) independent of age, sex, race and/or ethnicity, socioeconomic status, and high-risk comorbidities. Conclusions and Relevance In this cohort study, the burden of RSV-positive ARI in older adults during the pre-COVID-19 period was substantial. After a reduction of RSV-positive ARI incidence from October 2020 to April 2021, RSV-positive ARI re-emerged during the summer of 2021. RSV-positive ARI was associated with significant long-term lower QOL beyond the short-term lower QOL in older adults.

Abstract OBJECTIVES Low forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1) and elevated N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-Pro-BNP) have been individually associated with poor outcomes after transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR). We hypothesized a combination of the 2 would provide prognostic indication after TAVR. METHODS We categorized 871 patients who received TAVR from 2008 to 2018 into 4 groups according to baseline FEV1 (&lt;60% or ≥60% predicted) and NT-Pro-BNP (&lt;1601 or ≥1601 pg/ml): group A (n = 312, high FEV1, low NT-Pro-BNP), group B (n = 275, high FEV1, high NT-Pro-BNP), group C (n = 123 low FEV1, low NT-Pro-BNP) and group D (n = 161, low FEV1, high NT-Pro-BNP). The primary end point was survival at 1 and 5 years. RESULTS Patients in group A had more severe aortic stenosis and achieved the best long-term survival at 1 [93% (95% CI: 90–96)] and 5 [45.3% (95% CI: 35.4–58)] years. Low FEV1 and high NT-Pro-BNP (group D) patients had more severe symptoms, higher Society of Thoracic Surgeons predicted risk of operative mortality, lower ejection fraction and aortic valve gradient at baseline. Patients in group D had the worst survival at 1 [76% (95% CI: 69–83)] and 5 years [13.1% (95% CI: 7–25)], hazard ratio compared to group A: 2.29 (95% CI: 1.6–3.2, P &lt; 0.001) with 25.7% of patients in New York Heart Association class III–IV. Patients in groups B and C had intermediate outcomes. CONCLUSIONS The combination of FEV1 and NT-Pro-BNP stratifies patients into 4 groups with distinct risk profiles and clinical outcomes. Patients with low FEV1 and high NT-Pro-BNP have increased comorbidities, poor functional outcomes and decreased long-term survival after TAVR.

AbstractBackground and AimsInfluenza is a challenging infectious illness for older adults. It is not completely clear whether influenza is associated with frailty or functional decline. We sought to determine the association between incident influenza infection and frailty and prefrailty in community patients over 50 years of age. We also investigated the association between influenza vaccination and frailty and prefrailty as a secondary aim.MethodsThis was a prospective community cohort study from October 2019 to November 2020 in participants over 50 years. The primary outcome was the development of frailty as defined by three of five frailty criteria (slow gait speed, low grip strength, 5% weight loss, low energy, and low physical functioning). The primary predictor was a positive polymerase chain reaction (PCR) for influenza infection. Influenza vaccination was based on electronic health record reviewing 1 year before enrollment. We reported the relationship between influenza and frailty by calculating odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) after adjustment for age, sex, socioeconomic status, Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI), influenza vaccine, and previous self‐rated frailty from multinomial logistic regression model comparing frail and prefrail to nonfrail subjects.ResultsIn 1135 participants, the median age was 67 years (interquartile range 60−74), with 41% men. Eighty‐one participants had PCR‐confirmed influenza (7.1%). Frailty was not associated with influenza, with an OR of 0.50 (95% CI 0.17−1.43) for frail participants compared to nonfrail participants. Influenza vaccination is associated with frailty, with an OR of 1.69 (95% CI 1.09−2.63) for frail compared to nonfrail. Frailty was associated with a higher CCI with an OR of 1.52 (95% CI 1.31−1.76).ConclusionWe did not find a relationship between influenza infection and frailty. We found higher vaccination rates in participants with frailty compared to nonfrail participants While influenza was not associated with frailty, future work may involve longer follow‐up.

Abstract Objective Artificial intelligence (AI) models may propagate harmful biases in performance and hence negatively affect the underserved. We aimed to assess the degree to which data quality of electronic health records (EHRs) affected by inequities related to low socioeconomic status (SES), results in differential performance of AI models across SES. Materials and Methods This study utilized existing machine learning models for predicting asthma exacerbation in children with asthma. We compared balanced error rate (BER) against different SES levels measured by HOUsing-based SocioEconomic Status measure (HOUSES) index. As a possible mechanism for differential performance, we also compared incompleteness of EHR information relevant to asthma care by SES. Results Asthmatic children with lower SES had larger BER than those with higher SES (eg, ratio = 1.35 for HOUSES Q1 vs Q2–Q4) and had a higher proportion of missing information relevant to asthma care (eg, 41% vs 24% for missing asthma severity and 12% vs 9.8% for undiagnosed asthma despite meeting asthma criteria). Discussion Our study suggests that lower SES is associated with worse predictive model performance. It also highlights the potential role of incomplete EHR data in this differential performance and suggests a way to mitigate this bias. Conclusion The HOUSES index allows AI researchers to assess bias in predictive model performance by SES. Although our case study was based on a small sample size and a single-site study, the study results highlight a potential strategy for identifying bias by using an innovative SES measure.