Cleary, Sean P

Abstract Background and Aims Following liver resection (LR) for HCC, the likelihood of survival is dynamic, in that multiple recurrences and/or metastases are possible, each having variable impacts on outcomes. We sought to evaluate the natural progression, pattern, and timing of various disease states after LR for HCC using multistate modeling and to create a practical calculator to provide prognostic information for patients and clinicians. Approach and Results Adult patients undergoing LR for HCC between January 2000 and December 2018 were retrospectively identified at a single center. Multistate analysis modeled post‐LR tumor progression by describing transitions between distinct disease states. In this model, the states included surgery, intrahepatic recurrence (first, second, third, fourth, fifth), distant metastasis with or without intrahepatic recurrence, and death. Of the 486 patients included, 169 (34.8%) remained recurrence‐free, 205 (42.2%) developed intrahepatic recurrence, 80 (16.5%) developed distant metastasis, and 32 (7%) died. For an average patient having undergone LR, there was a 33.1% chance of remaining disease‐free, a 31.0% chance of at least one intrahepatic recurrence, a 16.3% chance of distant metastasis, and a 19.8% chance of death within the first 60 months post‐LR. The transition probability from surgery to first intrahepatic recurrence, without a subsequent state transition, increased from 3% (3 months) to 17.4% (30 months) and 17.2% (60 months). Factors that could modify these probabilities included tumor size, satellite lesions, and microvascular invasion. The online multistate model calculator can be found on https://multistatehcc.shinyapps.io/home/. Conclusions In contrast to standard single time‐to‐event estimates, multistate modeling provides more realistic prognostication of outcomes after LR for HCC by taking into account many postoperative disease states and transitions between them. Our multistate modeling calculator can provide meaningful data to guide the management of patients undergoing postoperative surveillance and therapy.

Polymorphisms in the promoter of the BRM gene, a critical subunit of the chromatin remodeling SWI/SNF complex, have previously been implicated in risk and prognosis in Caucasian‐predominant lung, head and neck, esophageal, and pancreatic cancers, and in hepatocellular cancers in Asians. We investigated the role of these polymorphisms in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk and prognosis. HCC cases were recruited in a comprehensive cancer center while the matched controls were recruited from family practice units from the same catchment area. For risk analyses, unconditional logistic regression analyses were performed in HCC patients and matched healthy controls. Overall survival analyses were performed using Cox proportional hazard models, Kaplan‐Meier curves, and log‐rank tests. In 266 HCC cases and 536 controls, no association between either BRM promoter polymorphism (BRM‐741 or BRM‐1321) and risk of HCC was identified (P > 0.10 for all comparisons). There was significant worsening of overall survival as the number of variant alleles increased: BRM‐741 per variant allele adjusted hazards ratio (aHR) 5.77, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.89‐11.54 and BRM‐1321 per variant allele aHR 4.09, 95%CI 2.22‐7.51. The effects of these two polymorphisms were at least additive, where individuals who were double homozygotes for the variant alleles had a 45‐fold increase in risk of death when compared to those who were double wild‐type for the two polymorphisms. Two BRM promoter polymorphisms were strongly associated with HCC prognosis but were not associated with increased HCC susceptibility. The association was strongest in double homozygotes for the allele variants.

Germline mutations in the DNA base excision repair gene MUTYH are known to increase a carrier's risk of colorectal cancer. However, the risks of other (extracolonic) cancers for MUTYH mutation carriers are not well defined. We identified 266 probands (91% Caucasians) with a MUTYH mutation (41 biallelic and 225 monoallelic) from the Colon Cancer Family Registry. Mutation status, sex, age and histories of cancer from their 1,903 first‐ and 3,255 second‐degree relatives were analyzed using modified segregation analysis conditioned on the ascertainment criteria. Compared with incidences for the general population, hazard ratios (HRs) (95% confidence intervals [CIs]) for biallelic MUTYH mutation carriers were: urinary bladder cancer 19 (3.7–97) and ovarian cancer 17 (2.4–115). The HRs (95% CI) for monoallelic MUTYH mutation carriers were: gastric cancer 9.3 (6.7–13); hepatobiliary cancer 4.5 (2.7–7.5); endometrial cancer 2.1 (1.1–3.9) and breast cancer 1.4 (1.0–2.0). There was no evidence for an increased risk of cancers at the other sites examined (brain, pancreas, kidney or prostate). Based on the USA population incidences, the estimated cumulative risks (95% CI) to age 70 years for biallelic mutation carriers were: bladder cancer 25% (5–77%) for males and 8% (2–33%) for females and ovarian cancer 14% (2–65%). The cumulative risks (95% CI) for monoallelic mutation carriers were: gastric cancer 5% (4–7%) for males and 2.3% (1.7–3.3%) for females; hepatobiliary cancer 3% (2–5%) for males and 1.4% (0.8–2.3%) for females; endometrial cancer 3% (2%–6%) and breast cancer 11% (8–16%). These unbiased estimates of both relative and absolute risks of extracolonic cancers for people, mostly Caucasians, with MUTYH mutations will be important for their clinical management.

Abstract Background: Microsatellite instability (MSI) and BRAF mutation status are associated with colorectal cancer survival, whereas the role of body mass index (BMI) is less clear. We evaluated the association between BMI and colorectal cancer survival, overall and by strata of MSI, BRAF mutation, sex, and other factors. Methods: This study included 5,615 men and women diagnosed with invasive colorectal cancer who were followed for mortality (maximum: 14.7 years; mean: 5.9 years). Prediagnosis BMI was derived from self-reported weight approximately one year before diagnosis and height. Tumor MSI and BRAF mutation status were available for 4,131 and 4,414 persons, respectively. Multivariable hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated from delayed-entry Cox proportional hazards models. Results: In multivariable models, high prediagnosis BMI was associated with higher risk of all-cause mortality in both sexes (per 5-kg/m2; HR, 1.10; 95% CI, 1.06–1.15), with similar associations stratified by sex (Pinteraction: 0.41), colon versus rectum (Pinteraction: 0.86), MSI status (Pinteraction: 0.84), and BRAF mutation status (Pinteraction: 0.28). In joint models, with MS-stable/MSI-low and normal BMI as the reference group, risk of death was higher for MS-stable/MSI-low and obese BMI (HR, 1.32; P value: 0.0002), not statistically significantly lower for MSI-high and normal BMI (HR, 0.86; P value: 0.29), and approximately the same for MSI-high and obese BMI (HR, 1.00; P value: 0.98). Conclusions: High prediagnosis BMI was associated with increased mortality; this association was consistent across participant subgroups, including strata of tumor molecular phenotype. Impact: High BMI may attenuate the survival benefit otherwise observed with MSI-high tumors. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 24(8); 1229–38. ©2015 AACR.

A small number of common susceptibility loci have been identified for pancreatic cancer, one of which is marked by rs401681 in the TERT–CLPTM1L gene region on chromosome 5p15.33. Because this region is characterized by low linkage disequilibrium, we sought to identify whether additional single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) could be related to pancreatic cancer risk, independently of rs401681. We performed an in‐depth analysis of genetic variability of the telomerase reverse transcriptase (TERT) and the telomerase RNA component (TERC) genes, in 5,550 subjects with pancreatic cancer and 7,585 controls from the PANcreatic Disease ReseArch (PANDoRA) and the PanScan consortia. We identified a significant association between a variant in TERT and pancreatic cancer risk (rs2853677, odds ratio = 0.85; 95% confidence interval = 0.80–0.90, p = 8.3 × 10−8). Additional analysis adjusting rs2853677 for rs401681 indicated that the two SNPs are independently associated with pancreatic cancer risk, as suggested by the low linkage disequilibrium between them (r2 = 0.07, D′ = 0.28). Three additional SNPs in TERT reached statistical significance after correction for multiple testing: rs2736100 (p = 3.0 × 10−5), rs4583925 (p = 4.0 × 10−5) and rs2735948 (p = 5.0 × 10−5). In conclusion, we confirmed that the TERT locus is associated with pancreatic cancer risk, possibly through several independent variants.