Cerhan, James R

Abstract Extranodal marginal zone lymphoma (EMZL) has a very indolent course, and the validation of surrogate markers could accelerate novel therapies. Although prognostic markers do exist, no surrogate markers have been validated in EMZL. We hypothesized that time to complete response within 24 months (TTCR24) and complete response (CR) at 24 months (CR24) could be valid surrogate markers of progression-free survival (PFS). The International Extranodal Lymphoma Study Group 19 phase 3 trial showed the advantage of double therapy (rituximab + chlorambucil) over single therapy (rituximab or chlorambucil) on PFS. We used 2 recently published single-trial approaches to assess whether TTCR24 and CR24 were good surrogate markers of 8-year PFS (8y-PFS). Among the 401 patients, 264 (66%) reached a CR in the first 24 months, of which 222 (84%) remained in CR at month 24. The cumulative incidence of CR over time was significantly higher in patients under double therapy (hazard ratio, 1.75; P < .001). The double therapy arm was associated with a higher CR24 rate, a shorter TTCR24, and a longer 8y-PFS. The estimated proportion of treatment effect on 8y-PFS explained by TTCR24 was 95% (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.27-1.87). CR24 was also a strong surrogate marker because it mediated 90% (95% CI, 0.51-2.22) of the treatment effect on PFS and its natural indirect effect was significant throughout the follow-up. We found that TTCR24 predicted 95% and that CR24 mediated 90% of the treatment effect on long-term PFS. Therefore, TTCR24 and CR24 could be used in clinical trials as informative and valid early indicators of treatment effect on PFS. This trial was registered at www.clinicaltrials.gov as #NCT00210353.

Abstract TP53 aberrations, including mutations and deletion of 17p13, are important adverse prognostic markers in chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) but are less studied in high count monoclonal B-cell lymphocytosis (HCMBL), an asymptomatic pre-malignant stage of CLL. Here we estimated the prevalence and impact of TP53 aberrations in 1,230 newly diagnosed treatment-naïve individuals (849 CLL, 381 HCMBL). We defined TP53 state as: wild-type (no TP53 mutations and normal 17p), single-hit (del(17p) or one TP53 mutation), or multi-hit (TP53 mutation and del(17p), TP53 mutation and loss of heterozygosity, or multiple TP53 mutations). Cox regression was used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for time to first treatment and overall survival by TP53 state. We found 64 (7.5%) CLL patients and 17 (4.5%) HCMBL individuals had TP53 mutations with variant allele fraction >10%. Del(17p) was present in 58 (6.8%) of CLL and 11 (2.9%) of HCMBL cases. Most individuals had wild-type (N=1,128, 91.7%) TP53 state, followed by multi-hit (N=55, 4.5%) and then single-hit (N=47, 3.8%) TP53 state. The risk of shorter time to therapy and death increased with the number of TP53 abnormalities. Compared to wild-type patients, multi-hit patients had 3-fold and single-hit patients had 1.5-fold increased risk of requiring therapy. Multi-hit patients also had 2.9-fold increased risk of death compared to wild-type. These results remained stable after accounting for other known poor prognostic factors. Both TP53 mutations and del(17p) may provide important prognostic information for HCMBL and CLL that would be missed if only one were measured.

Abstract Context Metformin is the first-line drug for treating diabetes but has a high failure rate. Objective To identify demographic and clinical factors available in the electronic health record (EHR) that predict metformin failure. Methods A cohort of patients with at least 1 abnormal diabetes screening test that initiated metformin was identified at 3 sites (Arizona, Mississippi, and Minnesota). We identified 22 047 metformin initiators (48% female, mean age of 57 ± 14 years) including 2141 African Americans, 440 Asians, 962 Other/Multiracial, 1539 Hispanics, and 16 764 non-Hispanic White people. We defined metformin failure as either the lack of a target glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) (<7%) within 18 months of index or the start of dual therapy. We used tree-based extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) models to assess overall risk prediction performance and relative contribution of individual factors when using EHR data for risk of metformin failure. Results In this large diverse population, we observed a high rate of metformin failure (43%). The XGBoost model that included baseline HbA1c, age, sex, and race/ethnicity corresponded to high discrimination performance (C-index of 0.731; 95% CI 0.722, 0.740) for risk of metformin failure. Baseline HbA1c corresponded to the largest feature performance with higher levels associated with metformin failure. The addition of other clinical factors improved model performance (0.745; 95% CI 0.737, 0.754, P < .0001). Conclusion Baseline HbA1c was the strongest predictor of metformin failure and additional factors substantially improved performance suggesting that routinely available clinical data could be used to identify patients at high risk of metformin failure who might benefit from closer monitoring and earlier treatment intensification.

Abstract The prognostic relevance of diagnosis to treatment interval (DTI) in patients with newly diagnosed mantle cell lymphoma (MCL) is unknown. Hence, we sought to evaluate the impact of DTI on outcomes in MCL using 3 large datasets (1) the University of Iowa/Mayo Clinic Specialized Program of Research Excellence Molecular Epidemiology Resource, (2) patients enrolled in the ALL Age Asthma Cohort/CALGB 50403, and (3) a multisitecohort of patients with MCL. Patients were a priori divided into 2 groups, 0 to 14 days (short DTI) and 15 to 60 days (long DTI). The patients in whom observation was deemed appropriate were excluded. One thousand ninety-seven patients newly diagnosed with MCL and available DTI were included in the study. The majority (73%) had long DTI (n=797). Patients with short DTI had worse eastern cooperative oncology group performance status (ECOG PS ≥2), higher lactate dehydrogenase, bone marrow involvement, more frequent B symptoms, higher MCL International Prognostic Index (MIPI ≥6.2), and were less likely to receive intensive induction therapy than long DTI group. The median progression-free survival (2.5 years vs 4.8 years, p<0.0001) and overall survival (7.8 years vs. 11.8 years, p<0.0001) were significantly inferior in the short DTI group than the long DTI cohort and remained significant for progression-free survival and overall survival in multivariable analysis. We show that the DTI is an important prognostic factor in patients newly diagnosed with MCL and is strongly associated with adverse clinical factors and poor outcomes. DTI should be reported in all the patients newly diagnosed with MCL who are enrolling in clinical trials and steps must be taken to ensure selection bias is avoided.

AbstractDirect comparisons of the effectiveness of the numerous novel therapies in the diffuse large B‐cell lymphoma (DLBCL) treatment landscape in a range of head‐to‐head randomized phase 3 trials would be time‐consuming and costly. Comparative effectiveness studies using real‐world data (RWD) represent a complementary approach. Recently, several studies of relapsed/refractory (R/R) DLBCL have used RWD to create observational cohorts to compare patient outcomes with cohorts derived from single‐arm phase 2 trials. Using propensity score methods to balance clinically and prognostically relevant baseline covariates, closely matched patient‐level cohorts can be generated. By incorporating appropriate measures to assess covariate balance and address potential bias in comparative effectiveness study designs, robust comparative analyses can be performed. Results from such studies have been used to supplement regulatory approval of therapies assessed in single‐arm trials. While RWD studies have a greater susceptibility to bias compared to randomized controlled trials, well‐designed and appropriately analyzed studies can provide complementary real‐world evidence on treatment effectiveness.

Abstract An enhanced understanding of the molecular heterogeneity of diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) has opened the door to clinical trials evaluating novel agents with subtype-specific activity. It is an emerging question whether core needle biopsies (CNB) can adequately meet the increasing tissue requirements of these clinical trials. This can potentially lead to selective enrollment of patients who can undergo excisional biopsy (EB). It is also important to know whether patients who can undergo extensive diagnostic work up differ in their disease characteristics and outcomes from those who cannot. In this observational study, we describe the characteristics, outcomes, and adequacy of diagnostic tissue in patients with newly diagnosed DLBCL and primary mediastinal large B-cell lymphoma who underwent EB vs CNB. Of the 1061 patients, 532 (49.8%) underwent EB and 529 (50.1%) underwent CNB. A significantly higher proportion of patients with CNB had advanced stage disease, an international prognostic index of ≥3, and inadequate tissue for molecular analyses. Patients with CNB had significantly worse 5-year event-free survival (67.6% vs 56.9%; hazard ratio [HR], 0.76; confidence interval [CI]95, 0.6-0.9, P < .001) and 5-year overall survival (76.4% vs 69.2%; HR, 0.8; CI95, 0.6-0.9, P < .001). Thus, patients who underwent CNB have poor-risk features and inferior outcomes on frontline chemoimmunotherapy, are more likely to have inadequate tissue for molecular analyses, and might not meet the tissue requirements of biomarker-driven clinical trials. Thus, the increasing tissue requirements of biomarker-driven clinical trials may result in the exclusion of patients with high-risk DLBCL who need novel agents.

AbstractExtranodal marginal zone lymphoma (EMZL) is a heterogeneous disease with a subset of patients exhibiting a more aggressive course. We previously reported that EMZL with multiple mucosal sites (MMS) at diagnosis is characterized by shorter survival. To better recognize patients with different patterns of progression‐free survival (PFS) we developed and validated a new prognostic index primarily based on patient's disease characteristics. We derived the “Revised mucosa‐associated lymphoid tissue International Prognostic Index” (Revised MALT‐IPI) in a large data set (n = 397) by identifying candidate variables that showed highest prognostic association with PFS. The revised MALT‐IPI was validated in two independent cohorts, from the University of Iowa/Mayo Clinic (n = 297) and from IELSG‐19 study (n = 400). A stepwise Cox regression analysis yielded a model including four independent predictors of shorter PFS. Revised MALT‐IPI has scores ranging from 0 to 5, calculated as a sum of one point for each of the following‐ age >60 years, elevated LDH, and stage III–IV; and two points for MMS. In the training cohort, the Revised MALT‐IPI defined four risk groups: low risk (score 0, reference group), low‐medium risk (score 1, HR = 1.85, p = .008), medium‐high risk (score 2, HR = 3.84, p < .0001), and high risk (score 3+, HR = 8.48, p < .0001). Performance of the Revised MALT‐IPI was similar in external validation cohorts. Revised MALT‐IPI is a new index centered on disease characteristics that provides robust risk‐stratification identifying a group of patients characterized by earlier progression of disease. Revised MALT‐IPI can allow a more disease‐adjusted management of patients with EMZL in clinical trials and practice.

AbstractNon‐Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) is composed of a heterogeneous collection of subtypes with considerable differences in genetics, biology and aetiology. Studies to date on physical activity and NHL risk have not had sufficient sample size to evaluate whether associations differ by subtype. We pooled data from nine case‐control studies to examine the association between moderate‐to‐vigorous intensity physical activity (MVPA) and risk of NHL overall and by subtype (diffuse large B‐cell lymphoma, follicular lymphoma, chronic lymphocytic leukaemia/small lymphocytic lymphoma, marginal zone lymphoma and mature T‐cell lymphoma). A total of 5653 cases and 9115 controls were included in the pooled analysis. Physical activity was harmonised across nine studies and modelled as study‐specific tertiles. Multinomial logistic regression was used to estimate the association between physical activity and NHL, adjusting for confounders. The overall odds of NHL was 13% lower among participants in the most active tertile of MVPA compared to the least active tertile (adjusted odds ratio = 0.87, 95% CI = 0.80, 0.95). Similar decreases were observed across NHL subtypes. In summary, in this pooled analysis of case‐control studies, physical activity was associated with a modest risk reduction for each NHL subtype examined and with overall NHL.

Abstract Monoclonal B-cell lymphocytosis (MBL) is a common hematological premalignant condition that is understudied in screening cohorts. MBL can be classified into low-count (LC) and high-count (HC) types based on the size of the B-cell clone. Using the Mayo Clinic Biobank, we screened for MBL and evaluated its association with future hematologic malignancy and overall survival (OS). We had a two-stage study design including discovery and validation cohorts. We screened for MBL using an eight-color flow-cytometry assay. Medical records were abstracted for hematological cancers and death. We used Cox regression to evaluate associations and estimate hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals (CIs), adjusting for age and sex. We identified 1712 (17%) individuals with MBL (95% LC-MBL), and the median follow-up time for OS was 34.4 months with 621 individuals who died. We did not observe an association with OS among individuals with LC-MBL (P = .78) but did among HC-MBL (hazard ratio, 1.8; 95% CI, 1.1-3.1; P = .03). Among the discovery cohort with a median of 10.0 years follow-up, 31 individuals developed hematological cancers with two-thirds being lymphoid malignancies. MBL was associated with 3.6-fold risk of hematological cancer compared to controls (95% CI, 1.7-7.7; P &lt; .001) and 7.7-fold increased risk for lymphoid malignancies (95% CI:3.1-19.2; P &lt; .001). LC-MBL was associated with 4.3-fold risk of lymphoid malignancies (95% CI, 1.4-12.7; P = .009); HC-MBL had a 74-fold increased risk (95% CI, 22-246; P &lt; .001). In this large screening cohort, we observed similar survival among individuals with and without LC-MBL, yet individuals with LC-MBL have a fourfold increased risk of lymphoid malignancies. Accumulating evidence indicates that there are clinical consequences to LC-MBL, a condition that affects 8 to 10 million adults in the United States.