Chamberlain, Alanna

Background: Contemporary data on trends in survival after incident atrial fibrillation (AF) are limited. Methods: Residents of a 27-county area in southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin with new-onset atrial fibrillation or atrial flutter between 2013 and 2023 were identified. An electronic algorithm requiring 1 inpatient code or 2 outpatient codes separated by >7 days but within 1 year was used to define AF. Patients were followed for all-cause mortality through March 31, 2025. Standardized mortality ratios of observed versus expected survival were calculated, and time trends in survival were examined using Cox regression adjusting for demographics, cardiovascular risk factors, comorbid conditions, and area-level measures of socioeconomic status and rurality. Results: There were 44,930 individuals identified with incident AF from 2013-2023 (56.4% male; mean (SD) age 72.8 (13.5) years; 95.8% were non-Hispanic white). Within the first 90 days, the risk of all-cause mortality was greatly elevated compared with individuals of a similar age and sex distribution in the general population (standardized mortality ratios 12.6, 95% CI, 12.1-13.0 and 3.8, 95% CI, 3.6-4.0 for the first 30 days and 31 to 90 days after diagnosis, respectively). This excess risk was observed for all age groups but was greatest in the youngest age group (standardized mortality ratios among 18-64 year olds for the first 30 days: 49.9, 95% CI, 44.6-55.7 and 31 to 90 days: 11.1, 95% CI: 9.4-13.1; Figure ). In the youngest age group, the excess risk persists through 5 years post AF, however, in the oldest age group the excess risk only persisted through 1 year. Survival within the first 90 days improved over the study period (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 0.88; 95% CI, 0.79-0.99 for 2023 vs 2013); likewise, among 90-day survivors, survival improved between 2013 and 2023 (aHR,0.82; 95% CI, 0.76-0.88). These trends were driven by improvements in the younger age groups, particularly for death among 90-day survivors (aHR for 18-64 years, 0.66, 95% CI, 0.52-0.83; 65-74 years: 0.77, 95% CI: 0.65-0.90; 75-84 years, 0.84, 95% CI: 0.75-0.95; 85+ years, 0.99, 95% CI: 0.98-1.01). Conclusion: In a Midwestern community, the excess risk of death is high within the first 90 days after incident AF. Furthermore, survival after AF has improved between 2013 and 2023, with the improvement greatest in younger age groups.

Introduction: Chronic kidney disease affects nearly half of heart failure (HF) patients, underscoring the importance of regular kidney function monitoring. However, longitudinal trajectories of kidney function in HF are not well characterized. Identifying clinical factors linked to long-term changes is critical for improving monitoring and informing early clinical decisions. Hypothesis: We hypothesized that longitudinal kidney function and its associations with clinical variables in HF patients differ from that of demographically similar comparators from the same community. Methods: We analyzed patients with validated HF from a community-based cohort and comparators individually matched to age and sex selected from participants in the Mayo Clinic Biobank cohort. Individuals with end-stage kidney disease, dialysis or kidney transplantation prior to enrollment were excluded. Serum creatinine-based estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) from outpatient and inpatient visits was assessed from enrollment for up to 10 years of follow-up. The median of eGFR for 90-day intervals was used to estimate the follow-up eGFR (Figure 1) . We modeled percentage change from baseline and fit linear mixed-effect models with time, HF status, and their interaction to test whether the eGFR trajectories differed between the two groups. In addition, we examined the association between eGFR trajectories and clinical variables. Results: We studied 1182 HF patients and 825 comparators with at least three eGFR measurements. Median follow-up was 5 years (IQR: 3-10) for HF patients and 8 years (6-9) for comparators. In total, 16245 serum creatinine measurements from HF patients and 9858 from comparators were analyzed. Median age at enrollment was 76 years (67-84) for HF patients and 78 years (70-83) for comparators. A greater decline in percentage change in eGFR was observed in HF patients (-4.23%, 95% CI: -4.75 to -3.70% per year) than in comparators (-1.90%, 95% CI: -2.51 to -1.29% per year; P<0.001, Figure 2 ). Among HF patients, the decline in percentage change in eGFR was greater in the presence of diabetes, hyperlipidemia, or a higher comorbidity burden. Conclusions: In this community study, HF patients exhibited a greater percentage decline in eGFR compared to community comparators. Among HF patients, eGFR decline was more strongly associated with comorbidities—particularly metabolic risk factors—highlighting the relevance of the cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic syndrome in HF.

Summary: Background: Peripheral artery disease (PAD) impacts 3–12% of patients worldwide and is characterized by endothelial dysfunction and inflammatory pathways which are also common to venous thromboembolism (VTE), but there is a paucity of evidence regarding VTE risk in PAD patients. We investigated whether PAD is an independent risk factor for VTE. Patients and methods: We reviewed medical records of patients undergoing ABI studies at Mayo Clinic from 01/1996-02/2020. We classified patients by ABI (low [<1.0], normal [1.0–1.4], or elevated [>1.4]), as well as by specific low ABI subgroup: severely reduced (ABI: 0.00–0.39), moderately reduced (0.40–0.69), mildly reduced (0.70–0.90), and borderline reduced (0.91–0.99). The primary outcome was incident VTE event (acute lower extremity deep vein thrombosis or pulmonary embolism) after ABI measurement. Multivariable Cox proportional regression was used to calculate hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) after adjusting for age, sex, active smoking, cancer, previous VTE, thrombophilia, anticoagulation, and revascularization. Results: 39,834 unique patients (mean age 66.3±14.3 years, median follow-up 34 months) were identified. 2,305 VTE events occurred in patients without PAD (13.0%), 2,218 in low ABI patients (13.0%), and 751 in elevated ABI patients (14.8%). After risk factor adjustment, VTE risk was modestly increased for PAD overall (HR: 1.12, 95% CI [1.06, 1.18]), including low ABI (HR: 1.11, 95% CI [1.04, 1.18]) and elevated ABI groups (HR: 1.15, 95% CI [1.04, 1.26]), compared to patients without PAD. The greatest VTE risk was in severely low ABI patients (HR: 1.46, 95% CI [1.31, 1.64]). Conclusions: In a large longitudinal cohort, we present strong clinical evidence of PAD, with low and elevated ABI, as an independent VTE risk factor, with the highest risk seen in patients with severely low ABI. Continued research is required to further investigate this relationship and its intersection with functional performance status to optimize VTE risk reduction or anticoagulation strategies in the PAD population.

Objectives To study the association between multi-morbidity percentiles, which is a measure of clinical aging, and interleukin (IL)-6, IL-10, and tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-α. Methods Participants 50 to 95 years of age from the Mayo Clinic Study of Aging were assigned age- and sex-specific multi-morbidity percentiles using look-up tables that were reported previously (n = 1646). Percentiles were divided into quintiles for analysis. Plasma IL-6, IL-10, and TNF-α levels were measured in 1595 participants. Median inflammatory marker levels were compared across multi-morbidity quintiles using nonparametric tests. Results People with higher multi-morbidity percentiles had significantly higher IL-6 and TNF-α levels compared with those with lower multi-morbidity percentiles. Tests for trend across five multi-morbidity quintiles were significant among women for IL-6 and among participants 70 years of age or older for IL-6 and TNF-α. IL-10 was not associated with multi-morbidity percentiles. Conclusions Multi-morbidity percentiles may be a useful clinical index of biological age for future studies, particularly in women and people 70 years of age and older.