Carey, L. A.

Abstract Background: The Breast Cancer Index (BCI) is clinically validated to stratify patients with hormone receptor-positive (HR+), early-stage BC based on the risk of overall (0-10 years [y]) and late (5-10 y) distant recurrence (DR) with N0/N1 lymph node involvement. Validation of BCI in patients with HR+ HER2+ BC has been limited, especially in patients treated with adjuvant trastuzumab-based chemotherapy. The HOXB13 and IL17BR genes constitute the predictive component of BCI and are known to exhibit an ER-dependent correlation pattern with HER2. We evaluated the prognostic performance of BCI in patients with HR+ HER2+ disease enrolled in the NCCTG N9831 (Alliance) trial treated with the combination of chemotherapy and trastuzumab. Methods: All available tumor specimens from patients with HR+ HER2+ N0/N1 BC in arms B (sequential trastuzumab) and C (concurrent trastuzumab) of the trial were included. BCI testing was performed blinded to clinical outcomes. The primary endpoint was distant recurrence-free interval (DRFI). BCI (N0) and BCIN+ (N1) risk groups were calculated based on prespecified cut points. Kaplan-Meier analysis and log-rank testing were used to assess the prognostic significance of BCI/BCIN+ risk groups based on DR. Cox proportional hazard models with and without clinical covariates were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs), and the associated 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Results: A total of 454 HR+ patients (234 arm B, 220 arm C), including 69 N0 and 385 N1 patients, were analyzed (median age was 47 y, 85% N1, 55% T2, 63% G3). BCIN+ scores were available for 378 of the 385 N1 patients due to missing tumor grade for 7 patients. The median follow-up was 12.7 years. In the overall cohort, BCI/BCIN+ stratified 51 (11%), 24 (5%) and 372 (83%) patients as low-, intermediate- and high-risk with 10-y DRFI rates of 96% (95% CI: 84-99%), 100% (100-100%) and 89% (86-92%), respectively. Since the low and intermediate risk groups had few patients and a similar risk of 10-y DRFI, they are combined into a single low-risk group hereafter. Thus, for overall 10-y DR, 75 (17%) and 372 (83%) of patients were classified by BCI/BCIN+ as low and high risk with 10-y DRFI rates of 97% (95% CI: 89-99%) and 89% (95% CI: 86-92%), respectively (HR=4.50, 95% CI: 1.09-18.61; p = 0.038). BCI/BCIN+ remained statistically significant in the multivariable analysis, adjusting for age, treatment, and nodal status (HR=7.54, 95% CI: 1.34-42.64; p = 0.022). For 69 N0 patients, BCI stratified 54 (78%) and 15 (22%) patients as low and high risk with 10-y DRFI rates of 100% (95% CI, 100-100%) and 77% (95% CI, 44-92%), respectively (p = 0.012). For 378 N1 patients, BCIN+ stratified 21 (6%) and 357 (94%) of patients as low and high risk with 10-y DRFI of 90% (95% CI, 66-97%) and 90% (95% CI, 86-93%), respectively (p = 0.07). Of the 21 patients classified as BCIN+ low-risk, two had BCIN+ scores of 6.75 and 6.73 in close proximity to the cut point (6.93) and experienced DR after 5 years, resulting in the same 10-y DRFI for both BCIN+ low- and high-risk patients. Conclusions: BCI is significantly prognostic for the risk of overall DR (0-10 y) in patients with HR+ HER2+ disease treated with adjuvant trastuzumab-based chemotherapy. Optimization of BCI cut points may further improve prognostic performance in HR+ HER2+. Additional validation in other HR+ HER2+ cohorts treated in the modern setting with anti-HER2-based therapy is warranted, given the small sample size of N0 patients and relatively low DR rate in the late recurrence cohort. In summary, these results provide further evidence of BCI’s utility to support clinical decision-making for adjuvant endocrine therapies for HR+ HER2+ BC. Support: U10CA180821, U10CA180882, U24CA196171, Genentech; Clinicaltrials.gov Id: NCT00005970; https://acknowledgments.alliancefound.org. Citation Format: S. Chumsri, E. Liu, K. Edwards, Y. Wen, Y. Zhang, A. K. Anderson, A. H. Partridge, L. Carey, K. Ballman, E. Perez, K. Treuner, M. Goetz, E. Thompson. Prognostic performance of Breast Cancer Index in patients with early-stage HR+ HER2+ breast cancer (BC) treated with adjuvant trastuzumab: NCCTG N9831 (Alliance) [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium 2025; 2025 Dec 9-12; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Clin Cancer Res 2026;32(4 Suppl):Abstract nr PS3-08-08.

Abstract Background: Stromal tumor infiltrating lymphocytes (sTILs) are associated with improved response to chemotherapy and better overall survival (OS) in triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC). Quantification of sTILs via hematoxylin and eosin (H&E) tumor slides offers a widely available method to define a simple, effective surrogate for host anti-tumor immunity. Digitization of H&E slides has rapidly gained acceptance for use in diagnostic pathology and research, opening the door for image-based computational approaches to enumerate sTILs, among other features. Methods: We describe QuTILs - a multilayer perceptron-based framework to detect/enumerate TILs trained on >700,000 cells via The Cancer Genome Atlas Program (TCGA) slide images, implemented in the widely used open-source QuPath digital pathology suite. QuTILs was applied to digital H&E images using standard computing in primary breast tumors from phase 3 breast cancer clinical trials - CALGB 40502 (testing), CALGB 40601 and 40603 (validation) - in total 1,729 total images from 962 unique patients. The aims of this investigation were: 1) to assess the relationship between TIL patterns with overall or event-free survival outcomes; 2) to benchmark diverse image-based characteristics of TIL abundance and spatial architecture; and 3) to evaluate the association between image-based TIL levels and RNA-seq-based immune deconvolution metrics (CIBERSORT, EPIC, quanTIseq). Results: QuTILs average processing time was 7.9 minutes for whole-slide total TIL count and area density on a standard laptop workstation. In CALGB 40502, there was positive but modest correlation between pathologist TILs and QuTILs total TILs %, higher in the TNBC subgroup of CALGB 40502 (Pearson r = 0.55). In Cox proportional hazards models, the CALGB 40502 TNBC cohort showed significant univariate association for total TILs % with increasing decile (higher total TIL%) associated with reduced hazard (hazard ratio [HR]: 0.712, 95% CI: 0.559-0.906; P = 0.006), which remained significant in multivariable model incorporating age, race, and treatment arm (HR: 0.713, 95% CI: 0.556-0.915; P = 0.008). In validation TNBC clinical trial CALGB 40603, marginal TILs % was significant in the univariable Cox model (HR: 0.786, 95% CI: 0.639-0.966). Evaluation of TILs % by QuTILs with RNAseq-based deconvolution metrics in cohort-stratified and deconvolution method-stratified multivariable models showed that decile total TILs % by QuTILs was shown to significantly predict outcome in the EPIC (HR: 0.668, 95% CI: 0.466-0.957) and quanTIseq (HR: 0.646, 95% CI: 0.446-0.936) sets, with a similar magnitude as in clinical Cox, suggesting that RNA-based deconvolution estimates may not supplement the prognostic power of image-based TIL estimates. Exploratory analyses of pre- versus post-neoadjuvant therapy H&E images in CALGB 40603 and CALGB 40601 revealed a significant decrease in QuTILs total TIL% in CALGB 40603 for all pairs (n = 118 pairs, pre-median=9.52%, post-median=6.33%; Wilcoxon signed rank P < 0.001) but no significant change in QuTILs total TIL% among all pairs in CALGB 40601 (n = 82 pairs, pre-median=15.92%, post-median=15.10%; P = 0.886). Conclusions: QuTILs provides a computationally efficient open-source workflow for sTIL identification from digital H&E images that can be deployed on a standard laptop. We present the first evaluation of digital sTIL enumeration in CALGB 40502, CALGB 40603, and CALGB 40601 phase III breast cancer clinical trials and demonstrate significant prognostic association with QuTIL total TIL % among TNBCs across studies. Citation Format: M. Vater, R. Salgado, E. Blige, H. Lefebvre, A. Strahan, M. Gatti-Mays, H. Rugo, K. Ballman, M. Watson, Y. Wen, R. Leon-Ferre, K. Niazi, W. Symmans, L. Carey, K. AbdulJabbar, Z. Li, D. Stover. Qutils: open-source image-based infiltrating immune cell detection and outcomes in calgb 40502, calgb 40603, and calgb 40601 phase iii breast cancer clinical trials [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium 2025; 2025 Dec 9-12; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Clin Cancer Res 2026;32(4 Suppl):Abstract nr PS2-07-27.

Abstract Background: In MBC, CTC enumeration is highly prognostic for both progression free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS). Multiparametric technologies enable for expanded phenotypic profiling of CTCs, including ER and HER2 assessment. Limited information is available on the concordance of CTC ER and HER2 levels compared to synchronously obtained tissue. We assessed the prognostic performance of CTC enumeration and phenotypic profiling of ER and HER2 on CTCs. Methods: The prospective, multi-institutional Aurora study enrolled pts with MBC of any subtype either at diagnosis of metastatic disease or at time of progression on any line of systemic therapy. Pts underwent a metastatic site biopsy, consented to archival primary tissue collection and donated blood samples serially every 3-4 months until progression. CTCs, from blood collected at study entry, were identified as nucleated, EpCAM+/ cytokeratin+/ CD45- cells using an automated imaging system (RareCyte, Seattle). ER and HER2 expression levels were measured by mean fluorescence intensity (MFI), with thresholds above 80 (ER) and 160 (HER2) considered positive. Comparisons were made to total RNAseq from paired metastatic tissue biopsies. PFS and OS were calculated from the time of study entry to last follow up or death. Results: Baseline CTC enumeration was performed in 154 pts. The most common clinical subtype was HR+/HER2- (59.7%), followed by HER2-positive (16.8%) and TNBC (15.5%). The median lines of prior therapy were 1 (range 0-10). At least 1 CTC was identified in 68/154 pts (44%), 30 (19%) had ≥ 5 CTCs, and 15 (9.7%) had CTC clusters. The median CTC value was 0 (0-877). The presence of CTCs (≥1 or ≥5) and CTC clusters was adversely associated with PFS and OS (Table 1 Table 1. CTC survival analyses Number Median PFS PFS HR (95% CI) Median OS OS HR (95% CI) Presence of CTC 0 CTC 86 7.37 (0.03 - 43.1) reference 20.72 (0.03 - 50.6) reference ≥ 1 CTC 68 4.7 (0.43 - 19.5) 1.65 (1.16-2.36) 12.04. (0.43-44.1) 2.13 (1.44-3.16) Presence of ≥ 5 CTC <5 CTC 124 7.7 (0.03 - 43.1) reference 19.31 (0.03 - 50.6) reference ≥ 5 CTC 30 2.88 (0.43 - 18.7) 1.77 (1.15 - 2.71) 5.74 (0.43 - 29.3) 3.59 (2.26-5.70) Presence of clusters 0 clusters 139 7.37 (0.03 - 43.1) reference 18.06 (0.03 - 50.6) reference ≥ 1 cluster 15 1.91 (0.43 - 18.7) 2.06 (1.16 - 3.68) 3.42 (0.43 - 18.7) 5.44 (2.94-10.09) ). Across all subtypes, the median CTC ER-MFI across was 36.2 (range 4.2-10,016.6) and the median HER2-MFI was 139.6 (range 4.2-2480.5). We observed high intra-patient heterogeneity of ER-MFI (CV: 0.65 [0.34-1.25]) and HER2-MFI (CV: 0.79 [0.42-1.54]). Clinical metastatic subtype from metastasis at study entry was available in 54/68 pts with CTCs. Pts with clinical ER+ MBC had a higher median ER-MFI compared to clinical TNBC (111.9 vs 68.6, p = 0.02). However, 11 pts (26.8%) with clinical ER+ MBC had all CTCs with an ER-MFI <80. Lower ER expression was observed in CTCs collected after prior exposure to a SERD (median ER-MFI: post-SERD [n=8] 27 vs post-aromatase inhibitor [n=4] 252, p<2.22e-16). No correlations were observed between the median CTC ER-MFI or HER2-MFI and paired tissue ESR1 or ERBB2 RNA expression (n=66). Conclusions: CTCs are strongly predictive of PFS and OS. CTC ER- and HER2-MFI were highly heterogeneous without clear correlation with bulk tissue RNA expression. The clinical impact of discordant clinical receptor status and CTC receptor status warrants further exploration. Citation Format: K. V. Giridhar, W. C. Nenad, H. Ye, G. L. Wheeler, T. Hinoue, A. R. Michmerhuizen, B. M. Felsheim, U. R. Chandran, B. J. Kelly, E. R. Mardis, P. W. Laird, J. M. Balko, A. C. Garrido-Castro, S. Coppens, J. Bowen, R. Nanda, N. U. Lin, C. K. Anders, C. Isaacs, J. J. Tao, J. D. Anampa, N. Jahan, L. Huppert, A. DeMichele, B. H. Park, S. Vinayak, A. L. Delson, M. M. Magbanua, M. Balic, H. A. Parsons, A. V. Lee, L. A. Carey, L. Norton, A. C. Wolff, N. E. Davidson, I. Krop, T. A. King, C. M. Perou, K. A. Hoadley, Aurora US Metastases Network. Characterizing circulating tumor cell (CTC) enumeration and phenotypic profiling in blood with synchronously obtained tissue in metastatic breast cancer (MBC) in TBCRC /AURORA US [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium 2025; 2025 Dec 9-12; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Clin Cancer Res 2026;32(4 Suppl):Abstract nr PS2-07-17.

Abstract Background Central nervous system (CNS) metastases are a major clinical concern in patients with HER2-positive metastatic breast cancer (MBC). The PATINA phase III study showed improved PFS with palbociclib added to maintenance anti-HER2/endocrine therapy (44.3 vs. 29.1 months; hazard ratio 0.75; 95% CI 0.59-0.96; 1-sided P=0.0109). Preclinical and early clinical data suggest palbociclib may have CNS activity. We conducted a pre-specified secondary analysis to evaluate the incidence and timing of CNS progression. Methods CNS progression was defined as the emergence of new intracranial lesions per investigator assessment. Baseline CNS imaging was not mandated but recommended if symptomatic. Competing risks analyses evaluated time from registration to first CNS progression or death (CNS PFS), treating non-CNS progression as a competing event. All randomized patients were included in the primary analysis, regardless of known baseline CNS involvement. Patients with baseline CNS metastases were not censored if progression involved the CNS. A secondary analysis excluded patients with CNS metastases present at baseline. Cumulative incidence functions were estimated and compared using 2-sided Gray’s test. Results Data cutoff for this analysis was on October 15, 2024. 518 participants were enrolled between June 2017 and July 2021, 261 to the palbociclib arm and 257 to the control arm. CNS metastases at baseline were present in 11 patients in the palbociclib arm and 9 patients in the control arm. Among all randomized patients, CNS progression occurred in 35 of 261 (13.4%; 95% CI: 9.5-18.2) in the palbociclib arm and 50 of 257 (19.5%; 95% CI: 14.8-24.8) in the control arm. When excluding patients with CNS metastases at baseline, CNS progression was observed in 32 of 250 (12.8%; 95% CI: 8.9-17.6) in the palbociclib arm and 47 of 248 (19.0%; 95% CI: 14.3-24.4) in the control arm. The median follow-up for patients who were alive and progression-free was 53.5 months. At 36 months, the cumulative incidence of CNS PFS was 13.4% vs. 19.9% for palbociclib versus control (Gray’s test p=0.0386). Importantly, when the analysis was restricted to pts without evidence of CNS disease at baseline (Table 1), —the CNS benefit with palbociclib was maintained (13.0% vs. 19.2% at 36 months, Gray’s test p = 0.0378). Conclusion The addition of palbociclib to anti-HER2 and endocrine therapy was associated with a lower incidence of CNS metastases. Among patients without known baseline CNS involvement, the absolute reduction in CNS progression at 36 months was 6.2% in favor of palbociclib. This benefit was observed at 12 months and sustained over 3 years (Table 1). These findings suggest that palbociclib may help delay or prevent CNS involvement in HR+/HER2+ MBC, warranting confirmation in future studies. Citation Format: O. Metzger, S. Mandrekar, T. Dockter, L. Gianni, E. Ciruelos, A. De Michele, J. Gligorov, E. Lim, S. Loibl, X. Gonzàlez Farré, F. Lynce, J. Lanzillotti, L. Carey, S. Goel, A. Partridge, E. Winer. Central Nervous System Outcomes from the Phase III PATINA Trial (AFT-38) [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium 2025; 2025 Dec 9-12; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Clin Cancer Res 2026;32(4 Suppl):Abstract nr RF4-01.