Dietrich, Caroline

Abstract Patients with myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPNs) are inherently at increased risk of both thrombotic and bleeding events due to the nature of the condition. Disease management often includes anticoagulants, antiplatelet agents, and/or cytoreductive therapy to mitigate these risks. On the contrary, these therapies can also increase the risk of bleeding, presenting a clinical challenge in balancing the prevention of thrombosis with the management of bleeding complications. The relationship between treatment type, thrombotic events, and bleeding risk remains underexplored in large, real-world populations. This Swedish population-based study aimed to describe how the risk of bleeding in patients living with MPN differs by treatment strategy, and how timing of thrombotic events influences this risk. A total of 15,495 patients diagnosed with MPN between 2006 and 2021, aged 18–90, were identified through the Swedish Cancer Register and the Swedish Patient Register. Bleeding rates were estimated using Cox proportional hazards models with time-split survival data. Treatment categories were defined as follows: no therapy, anticoagulant monotherapy (e.g., warfarin, direct oral anticoagulants [DOACs]); antiplatelet monotherapy (e.g., aspirin, clopidogrel); cytoreductive monotherapy (e.g., hydroxyurea, interferon); and combination therapy, defined as any combination of at least two of the three aforementioned therapies. All treatment categories were compared to anticoagulant monotherapy. Both treatment exposure and thrombotic status were modelled as time-varying covariates, allowing individuals to contribute across multiple thrombosis and treatment combinations over time. Models were adjusted for age at diagnosis, sex, year of diagnosis, and MPN subtype. The cohort was 52% female, with a median age at diagnosis of 71 years (IQR 60–79). The most common MPN subtypes were polycythemia vera (39%) and essential thrombocythemia (38%), followed by MPN-unclassifiable (16%) and primary myelofibrosis (7%). A history of thrombosis at MPN diagnosis was present in 22% of patients, and 19% had a history of bleeding. Among the 10,487 patients receiving combination therapy, the majority included antiplatelet agents: 57% received antiplatelet + cytoreductive therapy, 12% received antiplatelet + anticoagulant therapy, and 22% received all three therapies. Only 8% received anticoagulant + cytoreductive therapy without antiplatelet agents. Patients receiving no therapy had the lowest bleeding rate overall (HR 0.63, 95% CI 0.53–0.75), likely reflecting individuals with less severe disease or contraindications to treatment. Among patients with no thrombotic event, those receiving antiplatelet monotherapy had a 35% lower rate of bleeding compared to those on anticoagulant monotherapy (HR 0.65, 95% CI 0.56–0.76). Combination therapy was associated with a reduced rate of similar magnitude (HR 0.68, 95% CI 0.59–0.78), while cytoreductive monotherapy showed no significant difference (HR 0.96, 95% CI 0.76–1.21). In patients with a prior thrombotic event, antiplatelet monotherapy remained protective (HR 0.59, 95% CI 0.43–0.79), and combination therapy was associated with a slightly lower bleeding rate compared to anticoagulant monotherapy (HR 0.78, 95% CI 0.61–0.99). The estimate for cytoreductive monotherapy in this group (HR 2.04, 95% CI 0.89–4.68) was based on a small number of patients and had wide confidence intervals, limiting interpretability. These findings suggest that bleeding risk in MPN patients is influenced by both treatment type and thrombotic history. Antiplatelet monotherapy and combination therapy were associated with lower bleeding rates than anticoagulant monotherapy, both in patients with and without prior thrombosis, though the effect was more pronounced in those without prior thrombosis. By accounting for the complete patient pathway and modelling treatment and thrombotic status as time-varying exposures, a more accurate representation of real-world treatment dynamics is presented here. Given that the majority of combination therapy regimens included antiplatelet agents, these results underscore the potential protective role of antiplatelet therapy in managing bleeding risk. These insights may support clinical decision-making, and guide personalized treatment strategies and risk assessment in patients diagnosed with MPN.

Abstract Introduction Short diagnosis-to-treatment interval (DTI) is associated with aggressive disease biology and inferior outcomes in diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL), and is recognized as a potential source of selection bias in clinical trials if not properly addressed. However, its prognostic significance in follicular lymphoma (FL) remains poorly characterized. We aimed to evaluate the prognostic significance of DTI in newly diagnosed FL patients who received frontline (1L) immunochemotherapy (IC), using a large international dataset and an independent external validation cohort. Methods For the discovery dataset, we evaluated patients diagnosed between 2002 and 2018 from ten observational cohorts as part of the FLIPI24 Consortium. External validation was conducted using data from patients enrolled in the Lymphoma Epidemiology of Outcomes (LEO) Cohort between 2010 and 2015. All patients had FL grade 1–3A and received 1L IC within 100 days of diagnosis. Patients with a concurrent DLBCL were excluded. Missing baseline laboratory values were addressed via multiple imputation. The primary endpoint was event-free survival at 24 months (EFS24); secondary endpoint was 5-year overall survival (OS), both calculated from treatment initiation. DTI was analyzed as continuous (via splines) and dichotomized variable (≤14 vs >14 days; as defined in DLBCL). Results In the discovery cohort (n=3,907), median age was 61 years (IQR 53–69), and 50% were male; 49% of patients were high-risk according to FLIPI, 26% according to PRIMA-PI, and 38% according to FLIPI24. Included patients received R-CHOP (54%), R-CVP (26%), or B-R (20%) as 1L treatment, followed by anti-CD20 maintenance in 60%. The median DTI was 30 days (IQR 17–48). Using the 14-day cut-off, 851 patients (22%) had short DTI. These patients had more adverse baseline characteristics, including B symptoms (42% vs 32%, P<0.01), ECOG performance status ≥2 (15% vs 8%, P<0.01), elevated LDH (51% vs 40%, P<0.01), hemoglobin <12 g/dL (30% vs 17%, P<0.01), and elevated β2-microglobulin (56% vs 44%, P<0.01). Prognostic indices (PIs) were also more frequently high-risk in the short-DTI group: FLIPI (56% vs 47%), PRIMA-PI (36% vs 24%), and FLIPI24 (51% vs 34%, all P<0.01). Spline modeling showed a decreasing EFS24 rate with increasing DTI, reaching a plateau at 30–40 days. In logistic regression model, each additional week of DTI improved EFS24 (OR 0.92, P<0.01). DTI attenuated but remained prognostic after adjusting for PIs (OR 0.93 for FLIPI, 0.95 for PRIMA-PI, 0.96 for FLIPI24, all P<0.01). When analyzed as a dichotomized variable, short DTI was associated with inferior EFS24: OR 1.74 adjusted for FLIPI, 1.63 for PRIMA-PI, and 1.53 for FLIPI24 (all P<0.01). The 2-year EFS of short vs long DTI groups was 71% vs 82% (HR 1.50, 95% CI 1.34–1.67, P<0.01), 5-year OS was 80% vs 86% (HR 1.38, 95% CI 1.21–1.56, P<0.01), and the 5-year cumulative risk of histologic transformation was 7.7% vs. 5.4% (P<0.01). In the validation cohort (n=516), median age was 61 years (IQR 52–69 years), 55% were male; 36% of patients were high-risk according to FLIPI; 29% according to PRIMA-PI, and 33% according to FLIPI24. Patients received B-R (59%) or R-CHOP (41%) as 1L treatment. The median DTI was 31 days (IQR 19–48), 84 patients (16%) had DTI ≤14 days. Similar patterns were observed; patients with short DTI had adverse baseline characteristics, PIs, and shorter 2-year EFS (72% vs 84%, HR 1.69, 95% CI 1.13–2.55, P=0.01). DTI remained associated with EFS24 when analyzed as a continuous variable (per week: OR 0.88 unadjusted, 0.90 with FLIPI, 0.89 with PRIMA-PI, and 0.89 with FLIPI24), and dichotomized (≤14 vs >14 days: OR 1.83 adjusted for FLIPI, 1.88 for PRIMA-PI, and 1.73 for FLIPI24). Conclusion Short DTI, defined as ≤14 days (observed in 22% of FL patients vs 46% in DLBCL), is a strong and independent predictor of inferior outcomes in newly diagnosed FL patients treated with IC. While DTI correlates with adverse baseline features and established PIs, it retains independent prognostic value. Although a 14-day threshold is reasonable for risk modeling, DTI contains greater informational value when modeled as a continuous variable. Among PIs, FLIPI24 most strongly attenuated the DTI effect, underscoring its superior discriminative power over FLIPI and PRIMA-PI. Clinical trials designs should mitigate any potential barriers to enrollment of FL patients requiring urgent therapy.