El‐Galaly, Tarec Christoffer

Marketing authorizations for oncology drugs are often based on single‐arm trials (SATs), and real‐world data‐based external comparator cohorts (ECCs) are increasingly explored to contextualize results. In retrospective studies, comparators may be identified by time of diagnosis but included based on time of relapse; such sampling strategies can introduce bias, potentially leading to erroneous efficacy conclusions. Simulated diffuse large B‐cell lymphoma (DLBCL) cohorts were generated using published time‐to‐relapse and post‐relapse survival distributions. Three ECC sampling strategies were evaluated: naïve (screening and inclusion periods coincide), delayed (inclusion period extends beyond screening), and displacement (screening and inclusion periods shifted relative to each other). Different sampling strategies caused significant changes in the time‐to‐relapse distribution in the ECC and, by proxy, the estimated 2‐year post‐relapse overall survival (22.5–52.2%). Naïve sampling consistently resulted in oversampling of early relapses, though bias was reduced with extended inclusion periods; in hypothetical trials, it produced inflated Type I errors (10.5–84.9%) despite α = 0.025. Delayed sampling reduced bias when the inclusion period was sufficiently extended to capture late relapses, yielding unbiased estimates under long delays (Type I error of 2.5% at a 6‐year delay). Displacement sampling depended strongly on the degree of shift: moderate shifts minimized bias, whereas long displacements introduced substantial distortion (Type I error of 2.7% and 0.0% at displacements of 2 and 5, respectively). Real‐world data‐based ECCs in relapsed/refractory oncology are susceptible to selection bias from sampling strategies, particularly through distortions in time‐to‐relapse, leading to erroneous efficacy conclusions; similar bias may occur in non‐oncology settings where time‐to‐treatment initiation is prognostic.

PURPOSE In large B-cell lymphoma (LBCL), use of high-dose methotrexate (HD-MTX) to prevent CNS relapse (so-called CNS prophylaxis) remains controversial. International guidelines continue to recommend HD-MTX in patients deemed ultra high risk (UHR) because of a lack of robust data specific to these subgroups. This study was designed to examine the impact of HD-MTX specifically in UHR patients. METHODS Data from two previous retrospective analyses were combined to produce a cohort of UHR patients (≥1 of the following criteria: CNS international prognostic index score 5-6; testicular, renal/adrenal, or breast involvement; ≥3 extranodal sites), treated with or without HD-MTX. The primary outcome was CNS relapse rate (isolated or concurrent with systemic relapse) measured from diagnosis with additional landmark analysis of all responding patients with no progression event at 6 months. RESULTS Analyses were performed on 1,923 patients meeting UHR criteria. No significant difference in 3-year CNS relapse rate was observed between no HD-MTX (n = 1,051) versus HD-MTX patients (n = 872), including in multivariable analyses adjusting for baseline characteristics (3-year rate, 9.3% v 8.1%; adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 1.13 [95% CI, 0.82 to 1.57]). Analyses restricted to isolated CNS relapse also confirmed no difference (5.9% v 5.7%; adjusted HR, 1.03 [95% CI, 0.69 to 1.53]). In the landmark analysis (no HD-MTX n = 782, HD-MTX n = 773), no difference in 3-year CNS relapse was observed (6.7% v 6.6%, adjusted HR, 0.95 [95% CI, 0.62 to 1.44]). CONCLUSION To our knowledge, this is the largest international comparative data set of patients with LBCL with UHR features showing no significant reduction in CNS relapse with HD-MTX in all UHR or in any individual subgroup. Despite inherent limitations of retrospective analyses, the data strongly support previous studies in suggesting HD-MTX prophylaxis has no meaningful benefit for most patients.

ABSTRACT One quarter of patients with diffuse large B‐cell lymphoma (DLBCL) who achieve a complete response following front‐line therapy will eventually experience disease relapse. Existing prognostic models use baseline factors to predict outcomes from the start of initial therapy and are not intended for use following completion of treatment. We developed a conditional event‐free survival (cEFS) tool that predicts a patient's risk of lymphoma recurrence after completing front‐line therapy taking into consideration baseline risk characteristics plus the time the patient has been in remission. Model development used pooled and harmonized data from two observational cohorts and four randomized trials of patients with newly diagnosed DLBCL treated with immunochemotherapy and either achieving a complete response or not experiencing an event within 12 weeks of end of therapy. Cox proportional‐hazards regression modeling with backwards stepwise selection was utilized for model development. External validation was performed using a large independent data registry. In total, data from 2757 patients were used for model development. The risk of experiencing an event at a time point after having survived a period of time could be computed parsimoniously using four basic predictors: age, ECOG performance status grade, Ann Arbor stage, and lactate dehydrogenase level. C‐index in the model development cohort was 0.65 (95% CI, 0.63–0.68), compared to 0.64 (95% CI, 0.62–0.66) in the external validation cohort. We believe that this dynamic risk prediction tool will not only aid clinicians in providing data‐driven recommendations for surveillance, but also assist patients themselves with key decisions, such as family planning.

Abstract A short diagnosis-to-treatment interval independently predicts inferior outcomes in follicular lymphoma. Using international discovery and validation cohorts, we demonstrate its prognostic value beyond established prognostic indices, with implications for risk stratification, clinical trial design, and interpretation.

Abstract Background: Prognostication for patients with non-transformed relapsed/refractory (R/R) follicular lymphoma (FL) is not well defined. Progression of disease within 24 months (POD24) and number of lines of prior therapy are commonly used to benchmark outcomes and for trial eligibility in this space. However, a comprehensive model for risk prediction in R/R FL is lacking. Here we utilize patients from the LEO Consortium for Real World Evidence (CReWE) and Iowa/Mayo Clinic Lymphoma SPORE MER to develop a clinical prediction model for R/R FL. Methods: Patients with grade 1-3A FL were prospectively enrolled at diagnosis in the MER and/or initiated second line or later therapy (2L+) for non-transformed FL at one of the 8 LEO Centers from a previous LEO CReWE study (Casulo et al, Lancet Haem 2022). All available lines of therapy were abstracted; lines of therapy after histologic transformation were not used in the analyses. A management plan of observation was considered as a type of therapy in the 1L setting but not in the 2L+ setting. Clinical variables and outcomes were abstracted at each line of therapy. Variables considered for modeling included demographics, clinical labs, treatment history, and pertinent clinical variables (including FLIPI and FLIPI24 components). Multiple imputation was used to address missing data in modeling; beta-2 microglobulin (B2M) was unable to be imputed due to the amount of missing data. Index therapy was defined as the date of initiation of a line of therapy (2L, 3L or 4L) for non-transformed FL. The primary endpoint for model development was the time from index therapy until the histologic transformation or lymphoma-related death (HT/LD). Cox proportional hazards models were used for model development. Modeling was first performed separately for each line of therapy and then evaluated across lines. Bootstrapping on imputed datasets was used to assess optimism in model performance. Results: N=1001 patients initiated 2L+ therapy and were utilized for modeling. Of these patients, N=654 initiated 3L and N=344 initiated 4L therapy. Median age at index therapy was (60, 61, and 62) for lines 2-4, respectively. Median follow-up by line of therapy was 8.2, 6.1, and 6,1 years and number of HT/LD events for modeling was 272, 154, and 88, respectively. Observed outcomes decreased modestly as the line therapy increased: median event-free (1.6, 1.5, and 1.2 years) and overall survival (17.6 years, 14.5 years, and 12.3 years), for lines 2-4, respectively. 5-year estimates of HT/LD by line of therapy were 21.6% (95% CI: 18.9-24.3), 23.7% (95% CI: 19.9-27.4) and 29.3% (95% CI: 23.3-34.7), respectively. A clinical prediction model was independently developed for each line of therapy; the final model for each line consisted of the same variables: increasing age, male sex, higher LDH, lower hemoglobin, higher white blood cell count, prior immunochemotherapy exposure, and shorter time since initial diagnosis. The parameter estimates for these variables were broadly similar across the different lines of therapy. The model output is an individual patient's risk of HT/LD. Patients with high-risk FLP-R, as defined using the upper quartile of FLP-R risk scores for each line, had observed 5 year HT/LD rates of 43%, 44% and 51% in lines 2-4, respectively. In contrast, patients with the lower quartile of FLP-R risk scores had observed 5 year HT/LD rates of 10%, 6% and 8% in lines 2-4, respectively. The optimism-corrected c-statistic for the FLP-R model across all lines of therapy was 0.685. This added significant information beyond FLIPI diagnosis (c=0.533) FLIPI at index line (c=0.563), the line of therapy (c=0.525), POD24 status (c=0.578), or all 4 variables combined (c=0.614). Conclusions: The FLP-R model identifies a group of patients with non-transformed FL in the R/R setting who are at very high risk of transformation and/or lymphoma-related death across lines of therapy. FLP-R features 4 of the 5 components of the 1L FLIPI24 prediction model (B2M was unavailable for modeling) with the addition of sex, treatment history and time since initial diagnosis. The number of prior therapies is not sufficient to identify high-risk populations for clinical trial enrichment in the R/R FL setting and model discrimination for FLP-R was greatly improved over FLIPI and/or POD24 across lines of therapy. A Shiny app will be provided for model implementation; external validation is planned.

Abstract Introduction Short diagnosis-to-treatment interval (DTI) is associated with aggressive disease biology and inferior outcomes in diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL), and is recognized as a potential source of selection bias in clinical trials if not properly addressed. However, its prognostic significance in follicular lymphoma (FL) remains poorly characterized. We aimed to evaluate the prognostic significance of DTI in newly diagnosed FL patients who received frontline (1L) immunochemotherapy (IC), using a large international dataset and an independent external validation cohort. Methods For the discovery dataset, we evaluated patients diagnosed between 2002 and 2018 from ten observational cohorts as part of the FLIPI24 Consortium. External validation was conducted using data from patients enrolled in the Lymphoma Epidemiology of Outcomes (LEO) Cohort between 2010 and 2015. All patients had FL grade 1–3A and received 1L IC within 100 days of diagnosis. Patients with a concurrent DLBCL were excluded. Missing baseline laboratory values were addressed via multiple imputation. The primary endpoint was event-free survival at 24 months (EFS24); secondary endpoint was 5-year overall survival (OS), both calculated from treatment initiation. DTI was analyzed as continuous (via splines) and dichotomized variable (≤14 vs >14 days; as defined in DLBCL). Results In the discovery cohort (n=3,907), median age was 61 years (IQR 53–69), and 50% were male; 49% of patients were high-risk according to FLIPI, 26% according to PRIMA-PI, and 38% according to FLIPI24. Included patients received R-CHOP (54%), R-CVP (26%), or B-R (20%) as 1L treatment, followed by anti-CD20 maintenance in 60%. The median DTI was 30 days (IQR 17–48). Using the 14-day cut-off, 851 patients (22%) had short DTI. These patients had more adverse baseline characteristics, including B symptoms (42% vs 32%, P<0.01), ECOG performance status ≥2 (15% vs 8%, P<0.01), elevated LDH (51% vs 40%, P<0.01), hemoglobin <12 g/dL (30% vs 17%, P<0.01), and elevated β2-microglobulin (56% vs 44%, P<0.01). Prognostic indices (PIs) were also more frequently high-risk in the short-DTI group: FLIPI (56% vs 47%), PRIMA-PI (36% vs 24%), and FLIPI24 (51% vs 34%, all P<0.01). Spline modeling showed a decreasing EFS24 rate with increasing DTI, reaching a plateau at 30–40 days. In logistic regression model, each additional week of DTI improved EFS24 (OR 0.92, P<0.01). DTI attenuated but remained prognostic after adjusting for PIs (OR 0.93 for FLIPI, 0.95 for PRIMA-PI, 0.96 for FLIPI24, all P<0.01). When analyzed as a dichotomized variable, short DTI was associated with inferior EFS24: OR 1.74 adjusted for FLIPI, 1.63 for PRIMA-PI, and 1.53 for FLIPI24 (all P<0.01). The 2-year EFS of short vs long DTI groups was 71% vs 82% (HR 1.50, 95% CI 1.34–1.67, P<0.01), 5-year OS was 80% vs 86% (HR 1.38, 95% CI 1.21–1.56, P<0.01), and the 5-year cumulative risk of histologic transformation was 7.7% vs. 5.4% (P<0.01). In the validation cohort (n=516), median age was 61 years (IQR 52–69 years), 55% were male; 36% of patients were high-risk according to FLIPI; 29% according to PRIMA-PI, and 33% according to FLIPI24. Patients received B-R (59%) or R-CHOP (41%) as 1L treatment. The median DTI was 31 days (IQR 19–48), 84 patients (16%) had DTI ≤14 days. Similar patterns were observed; patients with short DTI had adverse baseline characteristics, PIs, and shorter 2-year EFS (72% vs 84%, HR 1.69, 95% CI 1.13–2.55, P=0.01). DTI remained associated with EFS24 when analyzed as a continuous variable (per week: OR 0.88 unadjusted, 0.90 with FLIPI, 0.89 with PRIMA-PI, and 0.89 with FLIPI24), and dichotomized (≤14 vs >14 days: OR 1.83 adjusted for FLIPI, 1.88 for PRIMA-PI, and 1.73 for FLIPI24). Conclusion Short DTI, defined as ≤14 days (observed in 22% of FL patients vs 46% in DLBCL), is a strong and independent predictor of inferior outcomes in newly diagnosed FL patients treated with IC. While DTI correlates with adverse baseline features and established PIs, it retains independent prognostic value. Although a 14-day threshold is reasonable for risk modeling, DTI contains greater informational value when modeled as a continuous variable. Among PIs, FLIPI24 most strongly attenuated the DTI effect, underscoring its superior discriminative power over FLIPI and PRIMA-PI. Clinical trials designs should mitigate any potential barriers to enrollment of FL patients requiring urgent therapy.

PURPOSE Although most patients with follicular lymphoma (FL) can expect an indolent course, progressive lymphoma remains the primary cause of death during the first decade after diagnosis. Progression of disease within 24 months (POD24) of starting first-line (1L) immunochemotherapy defines a high-risk population with poor survival, but better risk stratification at diagnosis is needed. METHODS The FLIPI24 model was developed and internally validated to predict 24-month event rates using individual data from 4,485 patients treated with 1L immunochemotherapy from 10 observational cohorts of FL. Overall and cause-specific survival was further evaluated in FLIPI24 risk groups. External validation in the 1L immunochemotherapy setting was performed using the prospective observational Lymphoma Epidemiology of Outcomes (LEO) cohort (N = 565) and three randomized phase III trials (N = 3,192); extension to all patients with FL (any 1L therapy) was performed in the LEO cohort (N = 1,445) and its Molecular Epidemiology Resource subcohort (N = 1,074). RESULTS The FLIPI24 model uses age and four blood-based variables (hemoglobin, lactate dehydrogenase, beta-2 microglobulin, and WBC count). FLIPI24 showed consistent performance across validation and extension data sets, which was superior to existing prognostic tools. Across the four external immunochemotherapy validation data sets, patients with high-risk FLIPI24 (23%-32% of patients) had significantly higher 24-month event rates (22%-35%) and inferior 5-year overall survival (77%-83%) compared with patients with low-risk FLIPI24 (29%-31% of patients, 24-month event rates: 10%-12%; 5-year OS: 96%-97%). Results were consistent when evaluating lymphoma-related death and when extended to all patients with FL. CONCLUSION The FLIPI24 model robustly stratifies, at diagnosis, patients with FL at increased risk of lymphoma-related death versus patients with very low lymphoma-related mortality during the first decade after diagnosis. FLIPI24 can be used to enrich future clinical trial designs in newly diagnosed FL.

ABSTRACTThe development of new first‐line treatments for patients with follicular lymphoma (FL) is becoming increasingly challenging due to already excellent survival outcomes. The present study investigated the outcomes of patients with FL who underwent contemporary first‐line therapies but would not have been eligible for inclusion in recent trials and explored how commonly used in/exclusion criteria impacted their survival outcomes. This study included adult patients diagnosed with FL in the period 2000–2018 registered in the Danish Lymphoma Registry. Through searches on ClinicalTrials.gov, four recent 1st line phase 3 randomized controlled trials with R‐Bendamustine, R‐CVP, and/or R‐CHOP as control or experimental arms were included. Inclusion and exclusion criteria for each trial were retrieved and categorized. Patients were then divided into trial‐eligible and ineligible groups according to blood test results correlated to organ function and ECOG performance score (PS). Survival outcomes were significantly worse among trial‐ineligible patients, with adjusted differences between trial‐eligible and ineligible patients of 12%–20% in five‐year overall survival (OS) overall. Inclusion criteria based on PS and renal function were the main drivers of OS differences. More inclusive trials will lead to faster recruitment and secure focus on developing medicines for the group of patients with the worst outcomes.

Background: Splenic marginal zone lymphoma (SMZL) is a rare indolent disease with a median overall survival (OS) of more than 10 years, although a proportion of patients may develop aggressive histology transformation. In a previous report from this large, international dataset, the 10-year cumulative incidence of transformation was 17% (95% 13-21) and in another study of 186 patients, the 10-year cumulative incidence was 14%Click or tap here to enter text.. In this report, we focus on risk factors for transformation as well as clinical characteristics and outcomes of transformed SMZL (tSMZL). Patients and methods: Adults diagnosed with SMZL in 2000-2018 were identified through regional or nationwide population-based registries or from hospital registries. Only patients likely to have SMZL as defined by Matutes et al. were included. Those with discordant lymphoma and/or transformation at diagnosis were excluded. Medical records were reviewed by local clinicians with experience in hematology/oncology, and detailed information on clinical characteristics, treatment lines, and outcomes was collected. Only histologically confirmed high-grade transformations (HT) were included. OS was defined as the time from transformation to death or censoring at last follow-up. Additional analyses stratified by treatment exposure prior to HT and treatment of HT were conducted. Multivariable Cox analyses were performed to determine clinicopathological features associated with transformation and OS. Results: Out of 940 patients with SMZL, 111 developed HT during a median follow-up of 9.1 years. The median time from diagnosis to HT was 3.4 years with an interquartile range of 1.6-7.4 years. Median age at HT was 71 years. Patients with HT shared similar baseline characteristics to those without in terms of age at diagnosis (66.4 vs 67.6), f:m ratio (1.5 vs 1.1) and ECOG ³2 (7.2% vs 7.4%). The 5-yr OS from the time of HT was 42% (CI 95%, 32-54). Of the 111 patients with tSMZL, a complete treatment history from SMZL diagnosis until HT was available for 88 included in the following analyses. By the time of HT, 46 had not received any prior systemic therapy (37 only splenectomy, 9 no therapy), 6 patients had received rituximab alone or combined with splenectomy, and 36 patients had received chemotherapy alone or as part of combined modality treatment. In a uni- and multivariable models for HT, we assessed age, treatment at diagnosis, sex, extra-hilar lymphadenopathy, and extranodal involvement. In both the uni- and multivariable model, age >70 (HR 1.9, 95% CI: 1.1-3.4), immediate treatment including splenectomy (HR 2.0, 95% CI: 1.05-3.6), and extra-hilar lymphadenopathy (HR 1.9, 95% CI: 1.1-3.3) were associated with higher HT hazard, while extranodal involvement (HR 0.23, 95% CI: 0.06-0.84) was associated with a lower HT hazard. At the time of first-line treatment, multivariable analysis revealed similar results and with no association between risk of transformation and treatment strategy (i.e splenectomy alone, rituximab monotherapy or chemotherapy with /without rituximab or splenectomy, and other). At the time of HT, patients who had been previously treated with chemotherapy had an inferior 5-year OS of 24% (95%CI: 13-44%) versus 54% (95%CI: 41-71%) for those who had not received chemotherapy prior to HT. In contrast, there was no difference in the survival of patients that transformed less than or more than 24 months from diagnosis with 5-year OS after HT of 35% (95%CI 20-60%) and 45% (95%CI, 33-61%) respectively. In a multivariable Cox regression analyses of age at time of HT, sex, time since last treatment <24 months, chemo-exposure in previous treatment lines and anthracycline-containing therapy (+/-R) at the time of HT, only prior chemo-exposure was borderline associated with poorer OS (HR 1.8, 95%CI: 0.9-3.5). Conclusion: Patients with SMZL face a notable risk of developing tSMZL over time. Patients in need of immediate treatment at first SMZL diagnosis, age >70 and extrahilar lymphadenopathy had a higher risk of tSMZL and outcomes at the time of HT were poor if patients had been exposed to prior chemotherapy after adjustment for age, sex, and time since last treatment.