Muth, Joy Fladager

Abstract Models that estimate the probability of an adverse clinical outcome require an operational cutoff to translate continuous estimated probabilities into discrete labels that can trigger clinical action. Although statistical methods identify ‘optimal’ cut-offs, threshold selection ultimately reflects value judgments regarding harm tolerance, resource allocation, and workflow feasibility. We describe a governance-informed approach to selecting a deployment threshold for an asthma exacerbation (AE) prediction model integrated into clinical workflows. Using prevalence-adjusted performance metrics and real-world provider capacity modeling, we evaluated multiple candidate thresholds and quantified downstream workload and missed-event trade-offs. We demonstrate that statistically optimal thresholds may produce operationally infeasible alert volumes or unacceptable miss rates. We propose a structured threshold governance framework integrating statistical performance, clinical utility, stakeholder input, and human oversight safeguards. This case illustrates how threshold decisions should be treated as organizational governance processes rather than purely technical optimizations.

The striking rise in adolescent eating disorders since the severe acute respiratory coronavirus syndrome 2 pandemic has amplified demands for specialty eating disorders services and contributed to protracted delays in care. In the context of these delays, patients are at risk for increased weight loss, medical instability, escalating disease progression and poor prognosis. Primary care providers (PCPs) are frequently the first point of contact for young patients with eating disorders and are often left to bridge the gap while families struggle to establish specialty care. Yet, beyond case detection and medical comanagement, there are no evidence-based guidelines that can assist PCPs to prepare families for treatment, halt disease progression, and begin the lengthy process of weight and nutritional restoration in efforts to reduce medical complications and support a favorable prognosis. We present the case of a 13-year-old girl with a restrictive eating disorder to illustrate how PCPs can use intervention principles and strategies derived from evidence-based eating disorder treatment to successfully manage adolescent patients until they can access specialty treatment. We offer concrete guidelines for decision-making, as well as suggested behavioral and medical interventions for the PCP. With evidence-based tools, PCPs are well-positioned to support young patients with restrictive eating disorders and their family members as they begin the process of recovery from an eating disorder.